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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MAPUTO 001341 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
FOR AF/S - HTREGER 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MZ
SUBJECT: MOZAMBIQUE 2004 GENERAL ELECTIONS: END-SEPTEMBER UPDATE 
 
REFS: (A) MAPUTO 1335 
 
(B) MAPUTO 1280 
(C) MAPUTO 1183 
(D) MAPUTO 1154 
(E) MAPUTO 1001 
 
¶1. Sensitive but unclassified. Please handle accordingly. Not 
for internet distribution. 
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Contents 
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2 - Summary 
3 - New Electoral Law 
4 - Election Statistics 
5 - Parliamentary Elections 
6 - Presidential Candidates Deliver Nomination Papers 
7 - First, Unreliable Presidential Poll Says Guebuza Ahead 
8 - Comment 
 
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Summary 
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¶2. (SBU) On December 1 and 2, Mozambique will hold multi-party 
presidential and parliamentary elections. The current president, 
Joaquim Chissano, will step down after having served since 1986, 
winning elections in 1994 and 1999. To date, six presidential 
candidates have delivered their nomination papers to the 
Constitutional Commission, thus officially declaring their intent 
to run. Political parties have also been busy compiling their 
candidate lists for the parliamentary elections with some 
surprises in the lists reported so far. Mozambican electoral 
authorities estimate just over 9 million Mozambicans are 
registered to vote. A new electoral law introduced this year has 
introduced some significant changes that most believe will 
increase transparency in the electoral process. Though leading 
presidential candidates Armando Guebuza of FRELIMO and Afonso 
Dhlakama of RENAMO have called for a transparent and peaceful 
process, there are signs of increasing tensions. End Summary. 
 
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The New Electoral Law 
--------------------- 
¶3. (U) The new electoral law passed on July 17 introduced 
significant changes that respond to some problems experienced in 
previous elections. For example, in an attempt to reduce errors 
made by tired polling station staff, vote tallies on the formal 
result sheets must now be written in both figures and words. 
Also, voting can no longer be extended for a third day. In 
response to the omission of some party symbols from ballot papers 
in last year's municipal election, political parties will now be 
invited by the National Electoral Commission (CNE) to proofread 
sample ballot papers before official ones are printed. The new 
law also allows accredited polling staff, security forces, and 
journalists to vote at any polling station, even if they are not 
registered at the specific site. While intermediary counting will 
still be done at provincial level, under the new law results will 
also be published district-by-district. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Responding to complaints from the opposition and 
observers about FRELIMO's use of government vehicles and 
facilities during campaigning, the law introduces a ban on the use 
of any goods or property of central government, local government, 
or state-owned or controlled companies for campaigning purposes. 
Despite this new statute, RENAMO continues to report the use of 
public property for campaigning purposes by FRELIMO (Ref B). In 
an attempt to increase transparency, candidates and political 
agents are now entitled to a duly signed and stamped copy of the 
minutes and tally sheet of the intermediary count at the 
provincial and national counting levels. Such copies can also be 
forwarded to election observers and journalist, if requested. 
RENAMO party officials have praised for this new statute, 
asserting it will stifle FRELIMO's ability to "steal" the 
elections, as it claims they have in past elections (Ref A). 
 
¶5. (U) Some changes introduced for the 2003 local elections remain 
in place, including the ban on publishing of opinion polls between 
the start of the campaign and the declaration of results, the 
requirement that at least two of the five polling station staff 
speak the local language, and that polling station staff are to be 
hired in a public competition. 
 
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Election Statistics 
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¶6. (U) Voter registration in Mozambique, as regulated by Law 
18/2002, is conducted on an annual basis. Voter registration 
updates serve to register newly eligible voters, record transfers 
for citizens who have moved out of their previous voting district, 
and replace lost or stolen voter cards. More than 1.2 million 
voters across 2494 polling stations were registered in this year's 
update process held from June 28 to July 15, nearly double the 
700,000 predicted by Technical Secretariat for Electoral 
Administration (STAE). The following is the official breakdown of 
voter registration updates released by STAE on September 11. 
Table I: 2004 VOTER REGISTRATION FIGURES 
--------------------------------------------- --------------------- 
Province New Transfers Replacements Total 
--------------------------------------------- --------------------- 
Niassa 34,571 9,091 18,798 62,460 
Cabo Delgado 57,028 19,251 25,296 101,575 
Nampula 134,665 33,908 69,058 237,631 
Zambezia 128,863 31,577 71,504 231,944 
Tete 61,832 11,860 14,096 87,788 
Manica 43,280 13,291 17,065 73,636 
Sofala 62,248 21,956 34,165 118,369 
Inhambane 33,063 18,741 12,810 64,614 
Gaza 44,834 23,141 23,020 90,995 
Maputo Province 42,281 18,025 18,413 78,719 
Maputo City 55,260 16,502 26,478 98,240 
--------------------------------------------- --------------------- 
GRAND TOTAL 697,925 217,343 330,703 1,245,971 
 
¶7. (U) Adding the number of 2004 updated registrations to the 
existing voter base from 1999 and 2003, STAE calculates the total 
Mozambican voter "universe" at approximately 9 million. Carter 
Center estimates are slightly more conservative at 8.5 million. 
 
¶8. (SBU) This year's registration process was observed by both the 
national Electoral Observatory and the Carter Center. Though in 
its registration update report, the Carter Center stated it found 
procedures were fair and generally implemented in a uniform 
manner, there were reports of some stations being forced to halt 
registrations, sometimes for several days, when materials ran out. 
In a formal complaint, RENAMO stated that 100 people had been 
turned away by a polling station in Angoche, Nampula province, due 
to a shortage of registration materials. During a September 24 
meeting with Emboffs, the Carter Center also cited some reports of 
intimidation in Tete province. 
 
¶9. (U) Registration of Mozambicans living abroad took place for 
the first time between September 4 and 25 at Mozambican embassies 
and consulates in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Swaziland, 
Malawi, Tanzania and Kenya in Africa and Portugal and Germany in 
Europe. Whether or not those registered will be able to vote , 
however, is now in question due to the unexpectedly low 
registration numbers. Fewer than 22,000 Mozambicans registered 
during the 3-week period ending on September 25, well under STAE's 
estimate of 300,000 Mozambicans of voting age residing in the nine 
countries where registration took place. In the event CNE decides 
not to hold elections in the two external constituencies (Africa 
and Europe), as is expected due to the low registration numbers, 
two parliamentary seats that had been reserved for them will be 
redistributed to Manica Province and Maputo City. 
 
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Parliamentary Elections 
----------------------- 
¶10. (U) On September 4, CNE announced the breakdown of the 250 
parliamentary seats at stake in the December general elections. 
Assuming no elections are held abroad (ref paragraph 9), the 
breakdown is as follows: 
Table II: 2004 DISTRIBUTION OF PARLIAMENTARY SEATS 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
Province Number of 
Parliamentary Seats 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
Niassa 12 
Cabo Delgado 22 
Nampula 50 
Zambezia 48 
Tete 18 
Manica 15 
Sofala 22 
Inhambane 16 
Gaza 17 
Maputo Province 13 
Maputo City 17 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
GRAND TOTAL 250 
 
¶11. (SBU) Deputies to the Mozambican parliament are elected 
through a system of delegate lists compiled by party members at 
the provincial level and approved by the central party political 
commissions. There have been some surprises in this year's 
preliminary provincial lists. Ossufo Quitine, current chairman of 
the RENAMO parliamentary bench, failed to be elected in his 
constituency of Nampula, as did senior party member and current 
parliamentarian David Aloni. Quitine, speaking to the Mozambican 
press, brushed aside this apparent lack of popularity, 
characterizing the Renamo elections in Nampula as "a joke in bad 
taste." Sergio Vieira and Mariano Matsinhe, both leading Frelimo 
parliamentarians and former security ministers under Machel, also 
failed to be elected during FRELIMO's provincial electoral 
conferences. Other FRELIMO heavyweights who did not make the 
party list are current Minister of Foreign Affairs Leonardo Simao 
and current Minister of Industry and Energy Castigo Langa (Note: 
Under the Mozambican parliamentary system, individuals who hold 
public titles may not serve in the parliament at the same time 
that he/she holds public office. Nevertheless, an individual may 
chose to run for parliament and, if elected, the party will select 
which position he/she will hold. Some believe that the attempt by 
Simao and Langa to gain a spot on the list of FRELIMO deputies 
points to an imminent departure from their respective ministries. 
End note.) 
 
¶12. (SBU) There is speculation among some that the final 
delegation lists may change before the election date. Although 
widely reported in the press, the names of party candidates for 
the 11 provincial constituencies are not final until the parties' 
Political Commissions have approved and presented them to CNE. To 
date, neither FRELIMO nor RENAMO have submitted their delegate 
lists, leaving open the possibility for last minute changes. 
 
¶13. (SBU) RENAMO will again run as the RENAMO-Electoral Union with 
its coalition of 10 small parties. In a somewhat unexpected 
change, Carlos Reis' National Union of Mozambique (UNAMO) withdrew 
from the coalition, replaced by the Ecological Party of Mozambique 
(PEMO). There are some RENAMO members who are opposed to the 
coalition, arguing that these minor parties simply take advantage 
of the RENAMO banner to gain seats in parliament. Nevertheless, 
RENAMO leadership apparently prefers to keep them in the coalition 
rather than allow a potential dispersal of votes. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Presidential Candidates Deliver Nomination Papers 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
¶14. (U) Six presidential candidates for the December general 
election have delivered their nomination papers to the 
Constitutional Council, including ruling party FRELIMO candidate 
Armando Guebuza and opposition party RENAMO presidential hopeful 
Afonso Dhlakama. Guebuza was first to deliver his nomination 
papers, presenting more than 50,000 signatures supporting his 
nomination. Dhlakama delivered his credentials on September 29, 
supplying over 58,000 supporting signatures. Others to deliver 
their nominations papers and the requisite minimum of 10,000 
supporting signatures are Raul Domingos of the Party for Peace, 
Democracy and Development (PDD); Joaquim Nhota of the Democratic 
Liberal Party of Mozambique (PADELIMO); Yaqub Sibindy of the 
Independent Party of Mozambique (PIMO); and Neves Pinto Serrano of 
the Liberal Progress Party of Mozambique (PPLM). 
 
¶15. (SBU) Although formal campaigning does not start until October 
17, FRELIMO's Guebuza has been active in the run up to the 
elections, making trips to all 11 provinces, as well as visits to 
the Europe, South Africa, and the United States (Ref D). During 
his recent visit to South Africa, Guebuza met with numerous 
business entities in what some opine is an attempt to quell 
investor fears about his likely election. Although RENAMO's 
Dhlakama and PDD's Raul Domingos have been less active, both have 
made trips in recent months within the country and abroad, 
including visits to the United States (Refs C and E). 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
First, Unreliable Presidential Poll Says Guebuza Ahead 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
¶16. (SBU) According to an opinion poll published by the Higher 
Polytechnic and University Institute (ISPU), one of Mozambique's 
private universities, FRELIMO holds an overwhelming lead in this 
year's presidential race. However, the validity of the opinion 
poll, taken over a 5-day period with a sample of 9,000 voters from 
Maputo City, the northern province of Nampula, and the central 
provinces of Sofala and Zambezia, has come under fire due to its 
lack of balance and questionable methodology. Despite claims that 
the sample was geographically unbiased, nearly a third of the 
respondents came from Maputo City. The survey has also raised 
questions about the effectiveness of opinion polls in Mozambique. 
It is widely acknowledged that there is a tendency for those 
surveyed to provide what they perceive as "politically correct" 
responses, thus skewing results towards the party affiliation of 
the pollster. A September 16 local press report said that the 
IPSU professor who conducted the poll did so at the request of the 
FRELIMO party. 
 
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Comment 
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¶17. (SBU) Tensions have run high in the months leading up to this 
year's general elections. Both major political parties, RENAMO 
and FRELIMO, have reported acts of intimidation and political 
harassment on the part of the other (Refs B and D). In response 
to these threats, both have taken steps to mobilize old war 
veterans ("antigos combatentes"), an act that could perpetuate 
further clashes between the two political opponents and endanger 
the potential for nonviolent elections. It is not yet clear how 
smoothly the December elections will run, both Guebuza and 
Dhlakama have stressed the importance of a peaceful and 
transparent electoral process, and have committed publicly to 
upholding this goal. End comment. 
La Lime