O 101409Z SEP 04
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8788
INFO AMEMBASSY BEIJING 
AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 
AMEMBASSY DHAKA 
AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 
AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 
AMEMBASSY TOKYO 
AMCONSUL CALCUTTA 
AMCONSUL CHENNAI 
AMCONSUL MUMBAI 
CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
PACOM IDHS HONOLULU HI
USMISSION GENEVA 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK

C O N F I D E N T I A L  NEW DELHI 005734 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2014 
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV BG IN
SUBJECT: INDIA RATTLED BY DEVELOPMENTS IN BANGLADESH 
 
REF: A. DHAKA 3127 
     ¶B. NEW DELHI 5486 
     ¶C. CALCUTTA 350 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoffrey Pyatt.  Reason 1.5 (B,D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Bangladesh watchers in New Delhi have reacted 
with concern to recent violence there, citing the August 21 
attack on opposition leader Sheikh Hasina as symptomatic of a 
deterioration in the country's political culture, fueling 
instability in Bangladesh which contributes directly to 
violence in India's northeast.  Home Secretary Dhirendra 
Singh will raise these issues and others when he travels to 
Dhaka later in September.  In a new twist, some prominent 
Indian commentators are now blaming the GOI for having an 
inadequate Bangladesh policy.  The Bangladeshi High 
Commission insists Indo-Bangladesh relations are excellent. 
End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) While the April 2 Chittagong arms haul and the 
attempted assassination of the British High Commissioner in 
Sylhet, have worried Indian Bangladesh watchers, the August 
21 attack on Awami League Leader Sheikh Hasina set off a new 
round of concern in New Delhi.  General (Retd.) Dipankar 
Banerjee, Director of the Institute for Peace and Conflict 
Studies (IPCS) called the grenade attack "a violent 
manifestation of Islamic extremism," which had grown in 
Bangladesh.  "The Hindu" editorialized that the incident was 
a result of the BDG's "laissez faire attitude towards 
extremist groups."  Dr. Sreeradha Datta, Associate Fellow at 
the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (IDSA) warned 
us that pervasive lawlessness in many parts of Bangladesh 
enables extremist individuals and groups to operate outside 
Dhaka's reach. 
 
Bangladesh's Backyard 
--------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) These concerns about extremist groups based in 
Bangladesh, reiterated by MEA officials during Ambassador 
Cofer Black's Counterterrorism Joint Working Group meeting 
(Ref C), are nothing new.  What is new is that the GOI may be 
prepared to engage more directly with Dhaka to tackle some of 
these issues.  During his upcoming September 16-17 trip to 
Dhaka, Home Secretary Dhirendra Singh will provide to the BDG 
a list of insurgents' installations, for the sixth time, 
according to MEA Under Secretary (Bangladesh) Puneet Kundal. 
He told Poloff the meeting is intended to restart a dialogue 
on security issues that has been stalled since 2000.  Singh 
will also request the BDG to turn over fugitives the GOI 
believes have taken refuge in Bangladesh, reportedly 
including United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) 
Commander-in-Chief Paresh Barua.  The problem, Kundal 
explained, is that Bangladesh sees India's northeast as its 
"backyard."  New Delhi can take no other approach, Kundal 
added, except to continue to have talks, biannually between 
the Border Security Force and the Bangladesh Rifles, and at 
the Home Secretary level. 
 
¶4. (C) The August 21 attack on Hasina has deepened Indian 
concerns about the links between Bangladesh-based groups and 
guerrillas in India's northeast.  The group that Indian media 
reported as responsible for the incident, 
Harkat-ul-Jehad-I-Islami Bangladesh (HUJI-B), has connections 
that can be traced to India, according to Delhi-based South 
Asia Terrorism Portal's SATP.org.  SATP reports that HUJI-B 
is affiliated with the ULFA and runs ULFA camps in Bangladesh 
as well as sending its own members into West Bengal and 
Assam.  Retired General Banerjee remarked that corruption 
among India's Border Security Forces facilitates cross-border 
infiltration.  The MEA's Kundal added that there is an 
"ethnolinguistic homogeneity" among Bangladeshis and Indians 
in the border area which in combination with Dhaka's desire 
for "leverage" over New Delhi, contributes to the BDG's 
unwillingness to limit militant activity (Ref A). 
 
Neglecting the Neighbor 
----------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) The Sheikh Hasina incident has prompted a spate of 
analysis of New Delhi's policy towards Bangladesh by some of 
India's more prominent foreign policy commentators, with 
widespread concern that New Delhi's approach has been 
inadequate.  Head of South Asia Studies at Jawarhalal Nehru 
University (JNU) and strategic affairs writer C. Raja Mohan 
on August 27 accused the GOI of "drift" in its regional 
foreign policy.  Compared to India's current relationships 
with Pakistan and China (its "two most difficult neighbors") 
India's policy on Nepal, Bangladesh, and Maldives suffers 
from a "lack of sustained attention and a seriousness of 
purpose."  The attempt on Hasina "showcased the gathering 
storm," in Bangladesh, he wrote.   Similarly, Prem Shankar 
Jha, former editor of the Hindustan Times, wrote of the 
negative effects on Dhaka of India's "past inaction."  The 
GOI has taken decisions that have profound impacts on 
Bangladesh, including river interlinking, without consulting 
Dhaka, which has fostered a deep resentment in Bangladesh 
about India, Jha argued. 
 
¶6. (C) Echoing Mohan and Jha, the IDSA's Datta argued that 
New Delhi has contributed to poor ties with Dhaka by not 
keeping its neighbors happy, and that the countries suffer 
from a "communication gap."  General Banerjee described 
India's policy towards Bangladesh as "deliberately 
hands-off," although he noted that the GOI has few 
alternatives as India cannot interfere in Bangladesh's 
internal affairs.  Wary that India may have to pay a price 
for that policy, retired intelligence officer Bibhuti Bhusan 
Nandy charged in a long, two-part September op-ed piece that 
the NDA looked the other way while minorities became victim 
to "fundamentalist forces." 
 
Bangladesh as a Warning to India 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Prompted by these events "Hindustan Times" editor 
Manoj Joshi recently took his analysis of events in 
Bangladesh a step further asking whether India will go the 
way its dysfunctional neighbors already have.  Joshi argued 
that the domestic political situation of complete 
non-cooperation between the two dominant parties in Dhaka has 
"allowed space for scores of uncontrolled extremist groups." 
Urging New Delhi to heed the warning sounding from India's 
borders, Joshi wrote that PM Singh should "make the 
political-administrative system functional again," lest India 
go the way of Bangladesh. 
 
High Commission: Everything is OK 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Our contacts at the Bangladesh High Commission (BHC) 
have consistently maintained that reports of terrorist camps 
in Bangladesh are "baseless" and "outrageous."  Nonetheless, 
BHC poloff Bodiruzzaman told us on September 2 that while 
there are temporary irritants in the bilateral relationship, 
relations are excellent, and Indians and Bangladeshis are 
"brothers." 
 
Hasina's Visit 
-------------- 
 
¶9. (C) During her late July visit to India, opposition leader 
Sheikh Hasina was received with nearly all the formalities of 
an official visit.  With the exception of a Hyderabad House 
reception, which is strictly reserved for heads of state or 
government, Hasina's trip to India included all the trappings 
of a state visit, including calls on Manmohan Singh, Foreign 
Minister K Natwar Singh, and Leader of the Opposition LK 
Advani, and a dinner hosted by the Foreign Minister.  Denying 
the visit any particular significance, the Bangladesh High 
Commission's Bodiruzzaman said that such treatment is to be 
expected and is simply a function of a long and good 
relationship. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10. (C) It is notable that the UPA government that began its 
term with a strong focus on its immediate neighbors is now 
facing criticism from respected commentators of doing just 
the opposite with regard to Bangladesh.  Although Prime 
Ministers Singh and Zia met at the July 31 BIMSTEC Summit, 
GOI red carpet treatment of Hasina fueled the widely held 
view here that India simply prefers to deal with the Awami 
League and does not have the vision to build a constructive 
relationship with the BNP.  While the Home Secretary's visit 
is high-level, there is no talk of a Foreign Minister's trip 
to Dhaka until the PM and Natwar Singh travel to Dhaka for 
the January SAARC Summit.  Meanwhile, Bangladesh presents a 
collection of fears for India, which is worried about the 
spillover of extremism and anti-Hindu sentiment, the 
implications of political instability for India's own 
internal security in the northeast, groups inimical to India 
operating from within Bangladesh, and the demographic 
consequences of Bangladeshi migration into India. 
 
 
MULFORD