Keep Us Strong WikiLeaks logo

Currently released so far... 251287 / 251,287

Articles

Browse latest releases

Browse by creation date

Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z

Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
AEMR ASEC AMGT AE AS AMED AVIAN AU AF AORC AGENDA AO AR AM APER AFIN ATRN AJ ABUD ARABL AL AG AODE ALOW ADANA AADP AND APECO ACABQ ASEAN AA AFFAIRS AID AGR AY AGS AFSI AGOA AMB ARF ANET ASCH ACOA AFLU AFSN AMEX AFDB ABLD AESC AFGHANISTAN AINF AVIATION ARR ARSO ANDREW ASSEMBLY AIDS APRC ASSK ADCO ASIG AC AZ APEC AFINM ADB AP ACOTA ASEX ACKM ASUP ANTITERRORISM ADPM AINR ARABLEAGUE AGAO AORG AMTC AIN ACCOUNT ASECAFINGMGRIZOREPTU AIDAC AINT ARCH AMGTKSUP ALAMI AMCHAMS ALJAZEERA AVIANFLU AORD AOREC ALIREZA AOMS AMGMT ABDALLAH AORCAE AHMED ACCELERATED AUC ALZUGUREN ANGEL AORL ASECIR AMG AMBASSADOR AEMRASECCASCKFLOMARRPRELPINRAMGTJMXL ADM ASES ABMC AER AMER ASE AMGTHA ARNOLDFREDERICK AOPC ACS AFL AEGR ASED AFPREL AGRI AMCHAM ARNOLD AN ANATO AME APERTH ASECSI AT ACDA ASEDC AIT AMERICA AMLB AMGE ACTION AGMT AFINIZ ASECVE ADRC ABER AGIT APCS AEMED ARABBL ARC ASO AIAG ACEC ASR ASECM ARG AEC ABT ADIP ADCP ANARCHISTS AORCUN AOWC ASJA AALC AX AROC ARM AGENCIES ALBE AK AZE AOPR AREP AMIA ASCE ALANAZI ABDULRAHMEN ABDULHADI AINFCY ARMS ASECEFINKCRMKPAOPTERKHLSAEMRNS AGRICULTURE AFPK AOCR ALEXANDER ATRD ATFN ABLG AORCD AFGHAN ARAS AORCYM AVERY ALVAREZ ACBAQ ALOWAR ANTOINE ABLDG ALAB AMERICAS AFAF ASECAFIN ASEK ASCC AMCT AMGTATK AMT APDC AEMRS ASECE AFSA ATRA ARTICLE ARENA AISG AEMRBC AFR AEIR ASECAF AFARI AMPR ASPA ASOC ANTONIO AORCL ASECARP APRM AUSTRALIAGROUP ASEG AFOR AEAID AMEDI ASECTH ASIC AFDIN AGUIRRE AUNR ASFC AOIC ANTXON ASA ASECCASC ALI AORCEUNPREFPRELSMIGBN ASECKHLS ASSSEMBLY ASECVZ AI ASECPGOV ASIR ASCEC ASAC ARAB AIEA ADMIRAL AUSGR AQ AMTG ARRMZY ANC APR AMAT AIHRC AFU ADEL AECL ACAO AMEMR ADEP AV AW AOR ALL ALOUNI AORCUNGA ALNEA ASC AORCO ARMITAGE AGENGA AGRIC AEM ACOAAMGT AGUILAR AFPHUM AMEDCASCKFLO AFZAL AAA ATPDEA ASECPHUM ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
ETRD ETTC EU ECON EFIN EAGR EAID ELAB EINV ENIV ENRG EPET EZ ELTN ELECTIONS ECPS ET ER EG EUN EIND ECONOMICS EMIN ECIN EINT EWWT EAIR EN ENGR ES EI ETMIN EL EPA EARG EFIS ECONOMY EC EK ELAM ECONOMIC EAR ESDP ECCP ELN EUM EUMEM ECA EAP ELEC ECOWAS EFTA EXIM ETTD EDRC ECOSOC ECPSN ENVIRONMENT ECO EMAIL ECTRD EREL EDU ENERG ENERGY ENVR ETRAD EAC EXTERNAL EFIC ECIP ERTD EUC ENRGMO EINZ ESTH ECCT EAGER ECPN ELNT ERD EGEN ETRN EIVN ETDR EXEC EIAD EIAR EVN EPRT ETTF ENGY EAIDCIN EXPORT ETRC ESA EIB EAPC EPIT ESOCI ETRB EINDQTRD ENRC EGOV ECLAC EUR ELF ETEL ENRGUA EVIN EARI ESCAP EID ERIN ELAN ENVT EDEV EWWY EXBS ECOM EV ELNTECON ECE ETRDGK EPETEIND ESCI ETRDAORC EAIDETRD ETTR EMS EAGRECONEINVPGOVBN EBRD EUREM ERGR EAGRBN EAUD EFI ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS EPEC ETRO ENRGY EGAR ESSO EGAD ENV ENER EAIDXMXAXBXFFR ELA EET EINVETRD EETC EIDN ERGY ETRDPGOV EING EMINCG EINVECON EURM EEC EICN EINO EPSC ELAP ELABPGOVBN EE ESPS ETRA ECONETRDBESPAR ERICKSON EEOC EVENTS EPIN EB ECUN EPWR ENG EX EH EAIDAR EAIS ELBA EPETUN ETRDEIQ EENV ECPC ETRP ECONENRG EUEAID EWT EEB EAIDNI ESENV EADM ECN ENRGKNNP ETAD ETR ECONETRDEAGRJA ETRG ETER EDUC EITC EBUD EAIF EBEXP EAIDS EITI EGOVSY EFQ ECOQKPKO ETRGY ESF EUE EAIC EPGOV ENFR EAGRE ENRD EINTECPS EAVI ETC ETCC EIAID EAIDAF EAGREAIDPGOVPRELBN EAOD ETRDA EURN EASS EINVA EAIDRW EON ECOR EPREL EGPHUM ELTM ECOS EINN ENNP EUPGOV EAGRTR ECONCS ETIO ETRDGR EAIDB EISNAR EIFN ESPINOSA EAIDASEC ELIN EWTR EMED ETFN ETT EADI EPTER ELDIN EINVEFIN ESS ENRGIZ EQRD ESOC ETRDECD ECINECONCS EAIT ECONEAIR ECONEFIN EUNJ ENRGKNNPMNUCPARMPRELNPTIAEAJMXL ELAD EFIM ETIC EFND EFN ETLN ENGRD EWRG ETA EIN EAIRECONRP EXIMOPIC ERA ENRGJM ECONEGE ENVI ECHEVARRIA EMINETRD EAD ECONIZ EENG ELBR EWWC ELTD EAIDMG ETRK EIPR EISNLN ETEX EPTED EFINECONCS EPCS EAG ETRDKIPR ED EAIO ETRDEC ENRGPARMOTRASENVKGHGPGOVECONTSPLEAID ECONEINVEFINPGOVIZ ERNG EFINU EURFOR EWWI ELTNSNAR ETD EAIRASECCASCID EOXC ESTN EAIDAORC EAGRRP ETRDEMIN ELABPHUMSMIGKCRMBN ETRDEINVTINTCS EGHG EAIDPHUMPRELUG EAGRBTIOBEXPETRDBN EDA EPETPGOV ELAINE EUCOM EMW EFINECONEAIDUNGAGM ELB EINDETRD EMI ETRDECONWTOCS EINR ESTRADA EHUM EFNI ELABV ENR EMN EXO EWWTPRELPGOVMASSMARRBN EATO END EP EINVETC ECONEFINETRDPGOVEAGRPTERKTFNKCRMEAID ELTRN EIQ ETTW EAI ENGRG ETRED ENDURING ETTRD EAIDEGZ EOCN EINF EUPREL ENRL ECPO ENLT EEFIN EPPD ECOIN EUEAGR EISL EIDE ENRGSD EINVECONSENVCSJA EAIG ENTG EEPET EUNCH EPECO ETZ EPAT EPTE EAIRGM ETRDPREL EUNGRSISAFPKSYLESO ETTN EINVKSCA ESLCO EBMGT ENRGTRGYETRDBEXPBTIOSZ EFLU ELND EFINOECD EAIDHO EDUARDO ENEG ECONEINVETRDEFINELABETRDKTDBPGOVOPIC EFINTS ECONQH ENRGPREL EUNPHUM EINDIR EPE EMINECINECONSENVTBIONS EFINM ECRM EQ EWWTSP ECONPGOVBN
KFLO KPKO KDEM KFLU KTEX KMDR KPAO KCRM KIDE KN KNNP KG KMCA KZ KJUS KWBG KU KDMR KAWC KCOR KPAL KOMC KTDB KTIA KISL KHIV KHUM KTER KCFE KTFN KS KIRF KTIP KIRC KSCA KICA KIPR KPWR KWMN KE KGIC KGIT KSTC KACT KSEP KFRD KUNR KHLS KCRS KRVC KUWAIT KVPR KSRE KMPI KMRS KNRV KNEI KCIP KSEO KITA KDRG KV KSUM KCUL KPET KBCT KO KSEC KOLY KNAR KGHG KSAF KWNM KNUC KMNP KVIR KPOL KOCI KPIR KLIG KSAC KSTH KNPT KINL KPRP KRIM KICC KIFR KPRV KAWK KFIN KT KVRC KR KHDP KGOV KPOW KTBT KPMI KPOA KRIF KEDEM KFSC KY KGCC KATRINA KWAC KSPR KTBD KBIO KSCI KRCM KNNB KBNC KIMT KCSY KINR KRAD KMFO KCORR KW KDEMSOCI KNEP KFPC KEMPI KBTR KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KNPP KTTB KTFIN KBTS KCOM KFTN KMOC KOR KDP KPOP KGHA KSLG KMCR KJUST KUM KMSG KHPD KREC KIPRTRD KPREL KEN KCSA KCRIM KGLB KAKA KWWT KUNP KCRN KISLPINR KLFU KUNC KEDU KCMA KREF KPAS KRKO KNNC KLHS KWAK KOC KAPO KTDD KOGL KLAP KECF KCRCM KNDP KSEAO KCIS KISM KREL KISR KISC KKPO KWCR KPFO KUS KX KWCI KRFD KWPG KTRD KH KLSO KEVIN KEANE KACW KWRF KNAO KETTC KTAO KWIR KVCORR KDEMGT KPLS KICT KWGB KIDS KSCS KIRP KSTCPL KDEN KLAB KFLOA KIND KMIG KPPAO KPRO KLEG KGKG KCUM KTTP KWPA KIIP KPEO KICR KNNA KMGT KCROM KMCC KLPM KNNPGM KSIA KSI KWWW KOMS KESS KMCAJO KWN KTDM KDCM KCM KVPRKHLS KENV KCCP KGCN KCEM KEMR KWMNKDEM KNNPPARM KDRM KWIM KJRE KAID KWMM KPAONZ KUAE KTFR KIF KNAP KPSC KSOCI KCWI KAUST KPIN KCHG KLBO KIRCOEXC KI KIRCHOFF KSTT KNPR KDRL KCFC KLTN KPAOKMDRKE KPALAOIS KESO KKOR KSMT KFTFN KTFM KDEMK KPKP KOCM KNN KISLSCUL KFRDSOCIRO KINT KRG KWMNSMIG KSTCC KPAOY KFOR KWPR KSEPCVIS KGIV KSEI KIL KWMNPHUMPRELKPAOZW KQ KEMS KHSL KTNF KPDD KANSOU KKIV KFCE KTTC KGH KNNNP KK KSCT KWNN KAWX KOMCSG KEIM KTSD KFIU KDTB KFGM KACP KWWMN KWAWC KSPA KGICKS KNUP KNNO KISLAO KTPN KSTS KPRM KPALPREL KPO KTLA KCRP KNMP KAWCK KCERS KDUM KEDM KTIALG KWUN KPTS KPEM KMEPI KAWL KHMN KCRO KCMR KPTD KCROR KMPT KTRF KSKN KMAC KUK KIRL KEM KSOC KBTC KOM KINP KDEMAF KTNBT KISK KRM KWBW KBWG KNNPMNUC KNOP KSUP KCOG KNET KWBC KESP KMRD KEBG KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KPWG KOMCCO KRGY KNNF KPROG KJAN KFRED KPOKO KM KWMNCS KMPF KJWC KJU KSMIG KALR KRAL KDGOV KPA KCRMJA KCRI KAYLA KPGOV KRD KNNPCH KFEM KPRD KFAM KALM KIPRETRDKCRM KMPP KADM KRFR KMWN KWRG KTIAPARM KTIAEUN KRDP KLIP KDDEM KTIAIC KWKN KPAD KDM KRCS KWBGSY KEAI KIVP KPAOPREL KUNH KTSC KIPT KNP KJUSTH KGOR KEPREL KHSA KGHGHIV KNNR KOMH KRCIM KWPB KWIC KINF KPER KILS KA KNRG KCSI KFRP KLFLO KFE KNPPIS KQM KQRDQ KERG KPAOPHUM KSUMPHUM KVBL KARIM KOSOVO KNSD KUIR KWHG KWBGXF KWMNU KPBT KKNP KERF KCRT KVIS KWRC KVIP KTFS KMARR KDGR KPAI KDE KTCRE KMPIO KUNRAORC KHOURY KAWS KPAK KOEM KCGC KID KVRP KCPS KIVR KBDS KWOMN KIIC KTFNJA KARZAI KMVP KHJUS KPKOUNSC KMAR KIBL KUNA KSA KIS KJUSAF KDEV KPMO KHIB KIRD KOUYATE KIPRZ KBEM KPAM KDET KPPD KOSCE KJUSKUNR KICCPUR KRMS KWMNPREL KWMJN KREISLER KWM KDHS KRV KPOV KWMNCI KMPL KFLD KWWN KCVM KIMMITT KCASC KOMO KNATO KDDG KHGH KRF KSCAECON KWMEN KRIC
PREL PINR PGOV PHUM PTER PE PREF PARM PBTS PINS PHSA PK PL PM PNAT PHAS PO PROP PGOVE PA PU POLITICAL PPTER POL PALESTINIAN PHUN PIN PAMQ PPA PSEC POLM PBIO PSOE PDEM PAK PF PKAO PGOVPRELMARRMOPS PMIL PV POLITICS PRELS POLICY PRELHA PIRN PINT PGOG PERSONS PRC PEACE PROCESS PRELPGOV PROV PFOV PKK PRE PT PIRF PSI PRL PRELAF PROG PARMP PERL PUNE PREFA PP PGOB PUM PROTECTION PARTIES PRIL PEL PAGE PS PGO PCUL PLUM PIF PGOVENRGCVISMASSEAIDOPRCEWWTBN PMUC PCOR PAS PB PKO PY PKST PTR PRM POUS PRELIZ PGIC PHUMS PAL PNUC PLO PMOPS PHM PGOVBL PBK PELOSI PTE PGOVAU PNR PINSO PRO PLAB PREM PNIR PSOCI PBS PD PHUML PERURENA PKPA PVOV PMAR PHUMCF PUHM PHUH PRELPGOVETTCIRAE PRT PROPERTY PEPFAR PREI POLUN PAR PINSF PREFL PH PREC PPD PING PQL PINSCE PGV PREO PRELUN POV PGOVPHUM PINRES PRES PGOC PINO POTUS PTERE PRELKPAO PRGOV PETR PGOVEAGRKMCAKNARBN PPKO PARLIAMENT PEPR PMIG PTBS PACE PETER PMDL PVIP PKPO POLMIL PTEL PJUS PHUMNI PRELKPAOIZ PGOVPREL POGV PEREZ POWELL PMASS PDOV PARN PG PPOL PGIV PAIGH PBOV PETROL PGPV PGOVL POSTS PSO PRELEU PRELECON PHUMPINS PGOVKCMABN PQM PRELSP PRGO PATTY PRELPGOVEAIDECONEINVBEXPSCULOIIPBTIO PGVO PROTESTS PRELPLS PKFK PGOVEAIDUKNOSWGMHUCANLLHFRSPITNZ PARAGRAPH PRELGOV POG PTRD PTERM PBTSAG PHUMKPAL PRELPK PTERPGOV PAO PRIVATIZATION PSCE PPAO PGOVPRELPHUMPREFSMIGELABEAIDKCRMKWMN PARALYMPIC PRUM PKPRP PETERS PAHO PARMS PGREL PINV POINS PHUMPREL POREL PRELNL PHUMPGOV PGOVQL PLAN PRELL PARP PROVE PSOC PDD PRELNP PRELBR PKMN PGKV PUAS PRELTBIOBA PBTSEWWT PTERIS PGOVU PRELGG PHUMPRELPGOV PFOR PEPGOV PRELUNSC PRAM PICES PTERIZ PREK PRELEAGR PRELEUN PHUME PHU PHUMKCRS PRESL PRTER PGOF PARK PGOVSOCI PTERPREL PGOVEAID PGOVPHUMKPAO PINSKISL PREZ PGOVAF PARMEUN PECON PINL POGOV PGOVLO PIERRE PRELPHUM PGOVPZ PGOVKCRM PBST PKPAO PHUMHUPPS PGOVPOL PASS PPGOV PROGV PAGR PHALANAGE PARTY PRELID PGOVID PHUMR PHSAQ PINRAMGT PSA PRELM PRELMU PIA PINRPE PBTSRU PARMIR PEDRO PNUK PVPR PINOCHET PAARM PRFE PRELEIN PINF PCI PSEPC PGOVSU PRLE PDIP PHEM PRELB PORG PGGOC POLG POPDC PGOVPM PWMN PDRG PHUMK PINB PRELAL PRER PFIN PNRG PRED POLI PHUMBO PHYTRP PROLIFERATION PHARM PUOS PRHUM PUNR PENA PGOVREL PETRAEUS PGOVKDEM PGOVENRG PHUS PRESIDENT PTERKU PRELKSUMXABN PGOVSI PHUMQHA PKISL PIR PGOVZI PHUMIZNL PKNP PRELEVU PMIN PHIM PHUMBA PUBLIC PHAM PRELKPKO PMR PARTM PPREL PN PROL PDA PGOVECON PKBL PKEAID PERM PRELEZ PRELC PER PHJM PGOVPRELPINRBN PRFL PLN PWBG PNG PHUMA PGOR PHUMPTER POLINT PPEF PKPAL PNNL PMARR PAC PTIA PKDEM PAUL PREG PTERR PTERPRELPARMPGOVPBTSETTCEAIRELTNTC PRELJA POLS PI PNS PAREL PENV PTEROREP PGOVM PINER PBGT PHSAUNSC PTERDJ PRELEAID PARMIN PKIR PLEC PCRM PNET PARR PRELETRD PRELBN PINRTH PREJ PEACEKEEPINGFORCES PEMEX PRELZ PFLP PBPTS PTGOV PREVAL PRELSW PAUM PRF PHUMKDEM PATRICK PGOVKMCAPHUMBN PRELA PNUM PGGV PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA PBT PIND PTEP PTERKS PGOVJM PGOT PRELMARR PGOVCU PREV PREFF PRWL PET PROB PRELPHUMP PHUMAF PVTS PRELAFDB PSNR PGOVECONPRELBU PGOVZL PREP PHUMPRELBN PHSAPREL PARCA PGREV PGOVDO PGON PCON PODC PRELOV PHSAK PSHA PGOVGM PRELP POSCE PGOVPTER PHUMRU PINRHU PARMR PGOVTI PPEL PMAT PAN PANAM PGOVBO PRELHRC

Browse by classification

Community resources

courage is contagious

Viewing cable 04QUITO2251, PARTY POSTURING PROMPTS BUCARAM RETURN RUMORS

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs

Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
  • The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
  • The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
  • The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.

Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #04QUITO2251.
Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
04QUITO2251 2004-08-13 16:41 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Quito
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 QUITO 002251 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2014 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KCOR PREL EC
SUBJECT: PARTY POSTURING PROMPTS BUCARAM RETURN RUMORS 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney, Reasons 1.5 (b), (d) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  President Lucio Gutierrez's recent comments 
favoring the return of exiled former President Abdala Bucaram 
have ignited a political firestorm in Ecuador, with leading 
opposition parties promising that impeachment proceedings 
would shortly follow.  Bucaram, whom Congress removed in 
February 1997 on "mental incapacity" grounds, subsequently 
fled to Panama and enjoys political asylum there; he 
continues to lead the Ecuadorian Roldosista party (PRE) en 
absentia.  Analysts surmised that Gutierrez, seeking an 
alliance between the PRE and his own Patriotic Society party 
(PSP), had acquiesced to the former's primary goal and 
platform plank, "the return of Abdala."  The Social 
Christians (PSC) loudly opposed, arguing that court orders 
demanding Bucaram's immediate arrest for fraud remained in 
force.  PRE leadership, however, assert that a provincial 
judge rescinded the orders in 2001, allowing for the swift 
return of their beloved master.  Non-partisan Embassy 
contacts and Presidency officials consider the PRE's public 
bluster, announcing Abdala's imminent arrival, a gambit 
designed to energize the bases.  We agree, viewing 
Gutierrez's discourse as another political test balloon.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------- 
The Man They Call El Loco 
------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Historians and political analysts rate Bucaram 
Ecuador's most corrupt leader, an impressive achievement in a 
country that Transparency International consistently ranks 
amongst the hemisphere's worst kleptocracies.  A 
self-proclaimed "loco" (he recorded a song titled "A Madman 
in Love"), Bucaram campaigned as a leader for the poor.  His 
raiding of the public till, combined with widescale fraud 
perpetrated by cabinet officials, worsened his constituents' 
poverty.  Public demonstrations calling for his ouster 
reached such levels in February 1997 that Ecuador's Congress, 
itself not lilly-white, impeached Bucaram on grounds of 
mental incapacity.  The president lost the subsequent vote, 
44-34, and eventually fled for Panama and political asylum. 
Embassy contacts and media speculate he bought his status. 
 
3.  (U) In remarks to Quito daily El Comercio August 5, 
Gutierrez welcomed the disgraced former president's return. 
"...I would like Bucaram to come back, because he didn't 
commit the crimes he was accused of.  Some politicians are 
terrified at his return (I am not).  But as president, I 
can't tell him to come, nor can I oppose him."  In an El 
Comercio interview published August 6, Bucaram proclaimed his 
innocence and thanked Gutierrez for displaying admirable 
political courage.  The deposed leader claimed the law was on 
his side.  "I could return tomorrow," Bucaram claimed, "but I 
need guarantees I won't be detained illegally."  His stated 
intention was to return in time to present his candidacy for 
the October Guayaquil mayoral race (August 17 is the cutoff 
date). 
 
---------------------------------- 
Method to the President's Madness? 
---------------------------------- 
 
4.  (U) Media speculated that Gutierrez's show of Bucaram 
support had political motivations.  Ecuadorian electoral law 
stipulates that parties not winning five percent of the vote 
in multi-candidate races shall be disbanded (Ecuadorian 
legislative elections are more parliamentary than 
presidential, with parties presenting candidate lists). 
Gutierrez's PSP fell below the threshold in 2002 national 
elections, and pollsters predict a similar showing in the 
October 2004 local races.  Allying with Bucaram's PRE offered 
the PSP greater prospects and a stay of execution.  Minister 
of Government Raul Baca lent weight to these theories August 
4, telling TeleAmazonas TV that PSP and PRE deputies already 
had joined forces in Congress. 
 
------------------------- 
Enemies Line Up For Fight 
------------------------- 
 
5.  (U) Opposition forces quickly denounced Gutierrez.  PSC 
stalwart Leon Febres Cordero led the pack, arguing that any 
move by the president to facilitate Bucaram's return 
represented an impeachable offense.  Press report that two 
criminal cases remain active against the former leader, both 
stemming from alleged misuse of government funds.  Were 
Gutierrez to order the police not to enforce the court order, 
he would "commit an attack against the security of the 
state," Febres Cordero asserted, violating the constitutional 
mandate for separation of powers. 
 
6.  (U) In a meeting with Poloff August 10, PSC Congressman 
Carlos Torres added personal recollections of the last days 
of Bucaram.  The PRE leader had attempted to buy "no" 
impeachment votes at $1 million per.  Losing the vote and the 
presidency, he left Ecuador with literally baskets of cash, 
stolen from the Central Bank.  By law, the fraud 
investigations against Bucaram had frozen upon his departure 
from Ecuador, but the charges remained outstanding.  Torres 
discounted the PRE-publicized decision by an Esmeraldas judge 
who, via a constitutional challenge, supposedly had cleared 
the ex-president's name.  "The PRE owns Esmeraldas," the PSC 
legislator asserted, and only the Supreme Court could issue 
such a challenge. 
 
7.  (U) PRE discourse announcing Bucaram's imminent return 
was old hat, Torres continued.  The party was really a cult 
of personality, directionless without its leader.  In the 
seven years since Bucaram fled, PRE leaders had trotted out 
the "he's coming" line before every election, hoping to get 
the faithful to the polls.  Torres believed Gutierrez 
eventually would wise up and retract support for Bucaram's 
return. 
 
8.  (U) Guayaquil Mayor Jaime Nebot (PSC), perhaps the 
front-runner for the presidency in 2006, was convinced 
Bucaram did not want to return.  He would be arrested at the 
airport, Nebot told the Ambassador August 12, and he knows 
it.  The PRE leader's effectiveness is greatest from afar, 
lobbing charges against any and all parties.  Last, Nebot 
argued that the PRE's few serious politicians did not want 
the tarnish that Bucaram's return would bring. 
 
------------------------------------ 
And Supporters Say Abdala Was Framed 
------------------------------------ 
 
9.  (U) Ernesto Valle and Mario Touma, PRE legislators, 
maintained their boss's innocence, telling Poloff August 10 
that Bucaram's ministers were to blame in any malfeasance. 
"A leader can't be faulted for the actions of his followers," 
Valle incredulously explained.  Besides, there was no 
"documentary" proof of wrongdoing.  The Esmeraldas judge's 
finding was binding, as the government had not appealed 
within the mandated time limit.  ANd Gutierrez, as chief 
executive, was bound by law to enforce court rulings and thus 
allow Bucaram's return. 
 
10.  (C) "He owes us," Valle continued, revealing a four 
year-old verbal agreement between PRE congressmen and the 
then-cashiered Army colonel.  Under that deal, the PRE bloc 
would vote to amnesty Gutierrez and other participants in the 
2000 presidential coup, in exchange for future support in 
bringing Bucaram back.  There were tapes of the conversation, 
Valle threatened.  Touma insisted that Bucaram's return 
presented little political risk to the president.  The PSC 
might impeach, but the votes needed - 67, or two-thirds of 
Congress - were not there.  It would be one more crisis 
Gutierrez could overcome, he thought. 
 
----------------- 
One Expert's View 
----------------- 
 
11. (U) Prominent analyst Adrian Bonilla ventured that 
Gutierrez's support for Bucaram was tongue-in-cheek. 
Although the president had committed numerous gaffes before, 
he was not so dumb as to miss the risks inherent in calling 
Bucaram home.  Only by removing Baca (a PRE demand) could 
this occur, since the MinGov was a straight-shooter certain 
to oppose instructions to ignore pending arrest warrants. 
Baca's departure spelled disaster, Bonilla believed, as he 
was one of few serious politicians in the current cabinet. 
Although he doubted Gutierrez would do it, he urged the 
Embassy to reconsider its support if he did. 
 
12. (U) Bonilla predicted the PSP would survive, regardless 
of its October showing.  The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) 
had proven unsuccessful at decertifying parties commanding 
far fewer votes - its orders were essentially toothless. 
Additionally, PSP prospects looked good in Ecuador's jungle 
provinces.  He thus thought Gutierrez could jettison the PRE 
with minimal adverse effects. 
 
-------- 
COMMENT: 
-------- 
 
13.  (C) We have argued before that, despite numerous 
missteps and mounting political pressures, we don't see the 
silver bullet to take Gutierrez down.  A Bucaram return to 
Ecuador looks lethal, however, regardless of Touma's vote 
tally.  Thankfully, Gutierrez's comments appear more another 
test balloon, less a well-formed policy decision. 
Presidential Legal Advisor Carlos Larrea August 11 confirmed 
that Gutierrez had not issued Bucaram's travel orders, nor 
had he requested a legal opinion for political cover.  Larrea 
was confident the ex-president would remain in Panama.  END 
COMMENT. 
KENNEY