This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002597 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2014 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM VE OAS
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA REFERENDUM UPDATE, AUGUST 12 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, 
for Reason 1.5(d) 
 
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Summary 
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¶1. (C) National Electoral Council (CNE) director Jorge 
Rodriguez made clear that the referendum campaign officially 
closes at midnight August 12, as was initially decided by the 
CNE, despite Chavez's Comando Maisanta's request to extend 
the deadline so its campaign closing event could be held 
August 13.  The CNE approved the preliminary announcement on 
August 15 of the results based on the automatic transmission 
of the votes.  Organization of American States (OAS) mission 
leader Valter Pecly Moreira reiterated his confidence in the 
secrecy of the vote and in the referendum preparation to the 
Venezuelan press and separately to the Ambassador.  The 
Carter Center Director Jennifer McCoy also told reporters its 
observation team was pleased with the process so far.  CNE 
director Rodriguez said that the second fingerprint machine 
test finished August 11 had once again proven successful, but 
opposition experts continue being doubtful.  Venezuelan 
religious leaders (Catholic, Jewish, and Protestant) issued a 
joint call for Venezuelans to maintain the peace, vote and 
respect the results of the August 15 referendum.  President 
Hugo Chavez's advisor for North America and an MVR deputy 
told Poloffs the outlook for the election and afterwards was 
good for Chavez.  End summary. 
 
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Campaign Closes 
---------------- 
 
¶2. (U)  National Electoral Council (CNE) director Jorge 
Rodriguez made clear that the referendum campaign officially 
closes at midnight August 12, as was initially decided by the 
CNE, despite Chavez's Comando Maisanta's request to extend 
the deadline so its campaign closing event could be held 
August 13.  Instead, Comando Maisanta will hold various 
closing events in every state throughout Venezuela consisting 
of caravans and public gatherings.  In Caracas, the "No" 
caravan is scheduled to end with a public gathering in front 
of Miraflores August 12 in the afternoon.  The opposition 
campaign closing event is also culminating in a march that 
will gather on the public highway in Caracas. In the 48 hours 
before the referendum, political parties are prohibited from 
campaigning through the media, in the streets or by 
distributing campaign material. 
 
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Results to be Announced 
----------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) The CNE approved the preliminary announcement on 
August 15 of the results based on the automatic transmission 
of the votes.  CNE director Rodriguez explained that the 
official results should be issued around August 19, after 
12,351 voting acts are certified by the CNE.  The results of 
the voting acts signed by the president of the voting tables 
will be compared to the electronically transmitted results 
before being certified. 
 
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OAS Representative Statements 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Organization of American States (OAS) mission leader 
Valter Pecly Moreira issued a statement reiterating his 
confidence in the referendum preparation process until now 
August 11. Pecly praised the technical audits, especially 
those involving CANTV, calling them well done and 
trustworthy.  He noted that the OAS will not implement its 
own quick count system nor announce results, but working 
within the CNE regulations, OAS observers will make their own 
evaluations hoping that the OAS results coincide with those 
 
of the CNE.  Pecly told reporters that he and the OAS mission 
were convinced that the referendum vote was secret and would 
remain so. 
 
¶5. (C) Pecly told the Ambassador he was pleased with the 
National Electoral Council's (CNE) performance, expressing 
confidence in the technological systems on August 12.  Pecly 
described the environment as peaceful, mostly because both 
sides are sure they are going to win.  Pecly said the 
opposition and pro-GOV CNE directors are working well 
together in private, though are conflictive when speaking 
publicly to please their constituencies.  Pecly believed he 
gained the trust of the CNE, and has been successful in a 
number of areas, including pumping up the number of OAS 
observers and getting the Carter Center observers all of 
their credentials.  The Ambassador noted the importance of 
international observers to be ready when the polls closed to 
support transparency in the process, lest delays in the vote 
count lead to violence. 
 
--------------------------- 
Carter Center Observations 
---------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) Seated with former Presidents Alfonsin and Carazo, 
Carter Center Director Jennifer McCoy told reporters August 
12 that the Carter Center mission has received the support 
and access from the National Electoral Council (CNE) it needs 
and that it has been satisfied with the process so far.  She 
said the Carter Center will deploy its observers in teams of 
two to various Venezuelan states August 13 and will use 
various mechanisms as they observer everything from the 
opening to the closing of the polls and the transmitting of 
results.  McCoy said the Carter Center agrees with the CNE 
rule not to announce any preliminary results or projections 
before the first CNE bulletin is released.  Likely, she said, 
former Presidents Carter would give a press conference with 
OAS Secretary General Gaviria August 16.  Asked by a reporter 
if the Carter Center believes the referendum will proceed in 
a fair and transparent manner, McCoy said no one can give 
guarantees, but that based on what the Carter Center has 
observed thus far, it has confidence in the process. 
 
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Worries Put to Rest 
-------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) CNE director Rodriguez said that the second 
fingerprint machine test finished August 11 had once again 
proven successful.  He announced that all the voting machines 
are now programmed and should be delivered to the voting 
centers August 12-13.  Rodriguez reported a 40 second delay 
between the time the first documents are presented for voting 
and fingerprints are taken until the results are returned. 
He told reporters this meant that more than 8 million people 
could vote (8 million possible voters constitutes under 60% 
of the total registered voters).  The opposition's 
Coordinadora Democratica telecommunication experts were not 
present at the fingerprint machine tests August 11. 
Coordinadora expert Luis Baez Duarte quarreled with 
Rodriguez's conclusion, saying the test sample was too small. 
 Baez said the Coordinadora also objected to the millions 
spend for the system. 
 
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Religious Influence 
------------------- 
 
¶8. (U) Venezuelan religious leaders (Catholic, Jewish, and 
Protestant) issued a joint call for Venezuelans to maintain 
the peace, vote and respect the results of the August 15 
referendum.  They also called upon political leaders, both 
Chavista and opposition, to prevent any actions that might 
generate violence from their supporters.  Although they 
maintain good relations, the joint statement by Archbishop 
Baltazar Porras, President of the Catholic Episcopal 
 
Conference of Venezuela; Pynchas Brener, principal rabbi of 
the Ashkenazi Caracas; and Reverend Samuel Olsen, President 
of the Evangelical Council, is unusual.  At the same time, 
Pope John Paul II mentioned Venezuela in his weekly audience 
from the Vatican expressing his hopes, "that a climate of 
peace, serenity and reconciliation reign" in Venezuela. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
Chavez Advisor on Possibilities and Post-Referendum Plans 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶9. (C) Chavez's advisor on North American issues in the 
Office of the Presidency (and U.S./French/British citizen) 
Alexander Main told Poloff August 11 that everyone in the 
GOV, including himself, has been focused on the "No" 
campaign, but that once Chavez wins, the GOV will be able to 
focus more on their jobs and governing the country. Main 
asserted that there would be no violence because the 
Venezuelans are tired of it. Main said one of his principle 
responsibilities now is to advise Chavez on how to achieve 
better relations with the U.S. 
 
 
¶10. (C) Main said if the GOV won, it would continue with the 
"misiones" but would deepen their initiatives for poverty 
reduction, infrastructure, and fighting corruption.  Asked if 
these plans included peace and reconciliation efforts, he 
said sure but didn't elaborate.  Main said Chavez thrives on 
the crisis but has plans for the country that he would like 
to carry out.  Main said the hoped that when Chavez wins the 
referendum, the opposition will finally allow him to govern. 
 
¶11. (C) Asked what the GOV will do post referendum if Chavez 
loses, Main said Chavez won't lose. Main questioned if Poloff 
had seen the number of people at the pro-government march 
August 8.  Pressed, he said Chavez would accept the results 
from the National Electoral Council (CNE) as he had after the 
signature repairs in May 2004 (which he said was a "real 
psychological blow") and immediately begin campaigning, which 
Chavez is good at. 
 
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MVR Deputy Offers Outlook 
-------------------------- 
 
¶12. (C) Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) National Assembly 
Deputy Luis Acuna told Poloff August 11 that whoever wins the 
referendum needs to win by a large margin to establish 
legitimacy. Acuna said the polls indicated Chavez was going 
to win; however, he did not appear confident.  If Chavez were 
to win the referendum, Acuna believes, the President would 
choose a policy of reconciliation and not retaliation. Acuna 
complained that the opposition abandoned the National 
Assembly as the legitimate forum for settling political 
disagreements and attacked the 2003 OAS talks as usurpation. 
The referendum would establish the real balance of forces in 
the country and, if Chavez won, allow the political debate to 
return to the Assembly. 
Shapiro 
 
 
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