This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002516 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
BOGOTA AND LIMA ALSO FOR A/S NORIEGA 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2014 
TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM VE OAS
SUBJECT: CODEL BALLENGER: MEETING WITH OAS REPRESENTATIVE 
 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reason 1.5(d 
) 
 
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Summary 
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¶1. (C) Representatives Cass Ballenger, Gregory Meeks, Bill 
Delahunt and Butch Otter, accompanied by the Ambassador, met 
with Organization of American States (OAS) representative 
Patricio Carbacho at the Ambassador's residence August 3. 
Carbacho said he believed the OAS observer mission could do 
its job under current conditions. He was concerned Chavez 
might find a way to delay the referendum until after August 
19, possibly using electronic voting machine failures as a 
pretext since no contingency plan currently exists.  End 
Summary. 
 
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OAS Advantage Point 
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¶2. (C) Representatives Cass Ballenger (R-NC), Gregory Meeks 
(D-NY), Bill Delahunt (D-MA) and Butch Otter (R-ID) met 
Organization of American States (OAS) representative Patricio 
Carbacho at the Ambassador's residence August 3.  Carbacho 
contrasted the process by which the OAS received its 
invitation to observe with the European Union (EU) attempts 
to do the same.  He asserted that the lack of EU observers is 
beneficial to the democratic process in Venezuela because it 
heightens the reliance of the GOV on the OAS and Carter 
Center (CC) as the only technically experienced observers of 
the election. 
 
¶3. (C) Carbacho lauded OAS Secretary General Cesar Gaviria's 
appointment of Brazilian Ambassador to the OAS, Valter Pecly 
Moreira, to lead the OAS observer mission.  According to 
Carbacho, Chavez's well-publicized respect for Brazil will 
make it difficult for him to dismiss Ambassador Pecly, and 
therefore, any statements made on behalf of the OAS 
observation mission.  Carbacho said that the OAS believes it 
has several advantages and will be able to adequately perform 
its duties as an international observer. 
 
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Quick Count 
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¶4. (C) Carbacho told the Congressmen that the OAS quick count 
could accurately predict, with a 3% margin of error, the 
outcome of the referendum and reveal inconsistencies if they 
existed.  He indicated that in 61 previous electoral 
observations, including the signature collection in November 
2003 and the appeals in May, the OAS was accurate.  For the 
August 15 referendum, the CNE surveys and chooses the tables 
for the quick counts, he said, and the OAS will then select 
their quick count tables from among the CNE's choices. 
Jessica Lewis, democratic staffer for the Western Hemisphere 
sub-committee of the House International Relations Committee, 
reiterated Sumate's concerns about CNE involvement in the 
quick count to Carbacho. Carbacho said he was not concerned, 
and the process would be statistically reliable.  He said 
that the major difference between the August 15 referendum 
and previous processes would be that the OAS would make no 
announcements as the process develops. 
 
¶5. (C) The Ambassador and Congressmen asked if software 
problems and the 200 electronic voting machines that no one 
appears to know the location of could cause problems during 
the referendum.  Carbacho said that the OAS quick count would 
be valid and indicate inconsistencies if any tricks were 
used.  Carbacho remarked there would be 45 OAS observers 
present.  The Ambassador noted that the Carter Center would 
have a similar number.  When Representative Delahunt asked if 
the OAS and Carter Center would be working together, Carbacho 
said that while there might be coordination, each 
organization was separate.  The Ambassador pointed out that 
when former President Jimmy Carter came to Venezuela, Carter 
 
insisted upon his independence from the Embassy, as it should 
be.  Carbacho pointed out that the OAS observer mission was 
also independent of the permanent OAS mission in Venezuela. 
 
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Predictions 
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¶6. (C) Carbacho predicted 5.9 million people would vote for 
the "Si" on August 15 while only around 3 million people 
would vote for the "No". The range should be wide enough to 
make GOV accusations for fraud unbelievable. The Ambassador 
pointed out that both sides were absolutely convinced they 
would win the referendum. He thought that the voter turn out 
would be unprecedented for Venezuela, perhaps higher than 
Carbacho was predicting.   Carbacho concurred with the 
Ambassador, citing Venezuelans high turn out on August 1 to 
sign the opposition's Governance Agreement without much 
political organization. The Ambassador compared it to 20% of 
the United States population turning out to sign the 
Democratic or Republican platform. 
 
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To Be or Not To Be Concerned 
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¶7. (C) Responding to questions, Carbacho said he was 
concerned that Chavez knew what the numbers were and would 
find a method to make the CNE fail for the August 15 
referendum.  He said that the OAS still had not received any 
indication there was a contingency plan for machine failure, 
and that could be a possible glitch.  He said a possible 
solution to the concern about fingerprint machine failures is 
to have people fingerprinted after they voted, but he 
expressed doubt that the CNE would accept that solution. 
When asked if a higher-than-expected turnout could produce 
logistical problems, Carbacho was confident that there would 
be more than enough time for anyone interested to vote.  He 
said that the voting centers would open at 7 am and be open 
at least 10 hours.  Since each center should have no more 
than 600 voters per machine, he did not foresee a problem. 
 
8.(C) Carbacho implied that the neutrality of the CNE was 
questionable. He noted that Francisco Carrasquero, the 
President of the CNE, was applying for one of the 10 new 
positions at the expanding Supreme Court (TSJ).  Carbacho 
said that since the National Assembly was going to choose the 
additional judges, and Chavez's Quinta Republica party (MVR) 
had a majority, it was likely they would choose Carrasquero 
for a plum 12-year appointment to the TSJ. 
 
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Comment 
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¶9. (C) Carbacho was confident the OAS's observation team 
would be able to do its job adequately under the present 
conditions. He expressed some concern about August 15 delays, 
but did not appear overly worried. He agreed with the 
Ambassador that there might be a higher-than-expected voter 
turnout. 
 
¶10. (U) Codel Ballenger did not have the opportunity to clear 
this message before its departure. 
Shapiro 
 
 
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