This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002466 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2014 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE-AUGUST 3, 2004 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reason 1.5 ( 
d) 
 
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Summary 
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¶1. (C) Supporters of President Hugo Chavez and the National 
Electoral Council (CNE) conducted separate voting simulations 
August 1, while the opposition Coordinadora Democratica 
rallied supporters to sign its Governance Accord and verify 
electoral registry entries.  Each side of the referendum 
question remains convinced of its inevitable victory two 
weeks prior to the August 15 Presidential recall referendum. 
One prominent political analyst, however, told the Ambassador 
August 1 that Chavez's poll upswings had peaked and the 
opposition's standing was improving.  End Summary. 
 
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Sunday Political Events 
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¶2. (U) The Coordinadora Democratica (CD) August 1 organized 
8,500 booths close to voting centers throughout Venezuela 
staffed by 50,000 volunteers.  Voters verified the electoral 
register to insure they were registered and whether the 
location of the voting center to which they are assigned for 
August 15 is correct.  The opposition also collected 
signatures in support for its "Governance Agreement", 
unveiled July 25, which outlines the directives of a possible 
transition government if Chavez is voted out of office. 
Statements by various opposition leaders indicated that the 
simulation went well. 
 
¶3. (U) Supporters of President Hugo Chavez conducted a 
referendum vote simulation August 1 to familiarize people 
with the voting procedures and to check voters, electoral 
register information.  The Chavez supporters said the purpose 
of the simulation was also to continue promoting the 
achievements of the &Bolivarian revolution8, and to assess 
the effectiveness of Comando Maisanta, the organization in 
charge of Chavez's campaign. Regional organizers and National 
Assembly representatives who support Chavez issued general 
statements that they were pleased with the results. 
 
¶4. (U) Also on August 1, the National Electoral Council (CNE) 
held a logistical test to analyze the efficiency of material 
distribution and reception, operations, technical support, 
and transmission of results for the computerized electoral 
machines. The trial included 8,000 voting machine operators 
(out of 45,000), 1,000 technical supporters (out of 4,000), 
300 supervisors and 50 control operators from CANTV, the 
Venezuelan telephone company whose lines will be used to 
transmit the electronic results of the Referendum.  CNE 
vice-president Ezequiel Zamora said that Organization of 
American States (OAS) and Carter Center (CC) representatives 
were present.  Zamora qualified the tests as satisfactory and 
told reporters that he did not foresee logistical problems 
during the Referendum.  Zamora told reporters that as a 
result, he downgraded his level orange alert about possible 
Referendum delays to yellow. 
 
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Win or Lose? 
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¶5. (C) Each side on the recall referendum continues to 
believe it will win the vote August 15.  Political analyst 
and El Universal columnist Carlos Blanco told the Ambassador 
August 1, however, that he believes the opposition would win 
the recall referendum by 10%.  Blanco said Chavez appears to 
have peaked in July, and a poll conducted at the end of the 
month by Felix Seijas coming out the first week of August 
will show Chavez dropping.  Blanco also noted there are 
indications of Chavez supporters making plans to get their 
families out of the country, signaling that Chavez supporters 
are aware that their prospects are waning.  Blanco argued 
that Chavez cannot realistically expect to gain more votes 
than those that brought him into office in 2000 -- 3.8 
 
million votes, whereas the opposition had obtained 4.7 
million signatures in its signature drives.  If anything, he 
said, the number of persons who would vote for Chavez has 
diminished because of the President's failure to deliver. 
Carter Center representative Francisco Diez told the 
Ambassador that Chavez supporters believe they will win by 
12-14%.  Chavez opponents, using reasoning cited by Blanco, 
believe they will win by 10%, according to Diez.  The Carter 
Center representative would not predict which side was 
correct in its estimation. 
 
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CNE Contingency Planning 
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¶6. (U) The CNE failed to meet August 2 to begin evaluating 
contingency plan proposals to be implemented if there are 
voting machine failures on August 15.  Three versions of 
draft rules for resolving possible problems are under 
consideration.  CNE vice-president Zamora hopes that any 
problems that arise and cannot be resolved within an hour 
will lead to a manual vote. CNE Legal Counsel Andres Brito 
proposes a 2-hour lapse time and a decision issued by the 
National Electoral Board (JNE) to determine if a change to 
manual voting should occur.  CNE president Francisco 
Carrasquero supports suspending the voting process at a 
center if technical failures cannot be resolved within an 
hour and resuming the voting there only if the votes in 
question would have significant bearing on the election 
results.  CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez suggested July 30 that 
if there are failures in 20% of the voting machines, the 
referendum should be postponed. Coordinadora Democratica 
representatives oppose Carrasquero's proposal and rejected 
Rodriguez's suggestion as anti-democratic. 
 
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Opposition Leader Dies 
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¶7. (U) Opposition negotiator at the 2003 OAS talks and 
National Assembly deputy Alejandro Armas died July 31.  Armas 
was a former Chavez supporter turned opposition leader in 
early 2002.  He led the Solidaridad political party.  Armas 
was also a possible candidate for the opposition's transition 
government if Chavez were to loose the Referendum. 
Shapiro 
 
 
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      2004CARACA02466 - CONFIDENTIAL