This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PANAMA 001047 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
 
DEPT. FOR WHA/CEN/BRIGHAM 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2014 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PM POL CHIEF POLITICS FOREIGN POLICY
SUBJECT: PANAMA MAY 2 ELECTION RESULTS: POWERFUL PRD AND 
AGONIZED ARNULFISTAS 
 
 
REF: A. PANAMA 0896 
     ¶B. PANAMA 1014 
     ¶C. PANAMA 1015 
 
 
Classified By: DCM Christopher J. McMullen for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) 
 
 
Summary: Voters embrace Torrijos and snub Moscoso 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 

¶1.  (C) President-elect Martin Torrijos and his Democratic 
Revolutionary Party (PRD) won a commanding popular mandate in 
Panama's May 2, 2004 elections, sweeping all provinces but 
one.  The results were a stinging rebuke of President Mireya 
Moscoso, whose five-year term will end on September 1, 2004. 
Youth and women strongly backed Torrijos, whose "new PRD" was 
the only one of Panama's seven legally-recognized parties to 
hold primaries before the May 2004 elections.  Embassy's 28 
volunteer election observers, including Ambassador and DCM, 
watched the orderly and extensive (over 75%) May 2 polling 
throughout the country.  Torrijos finished with 47% of the 
vote, the strongest showing for a PRD candidate since 1989. 
Second-place finisher Guillermo Endara took 31.0% of the 
vote, leaving Arnulfista candidate Jose Miguel Aleman 
(Moscoso's former Foreign Minister) a distant third with 16%, 
the weakest showing ever for the Arnulfista Party. 
Perceptions of the Moscoso administration's image of 
corruption and ineffectiveness dragged Aleman down, but 
Arnulfista dissident Guillermo Endara's reputation for 
honesty and integrity attracted many votes.  The PRD won a 
plurality of at least 36 of Panama's 78 legislative seats and 
could win up to four more.  The PRD also won the mayoral 
seats in Panama's three largest cities, Panama, Colon, and 
David.  End Summary. 
 
 
Torrijos' PRD on Top 
-------------------- 

¶2.  (C) Martin Torrijos' triumph won him every Panamanian 
province but the small indigenous "comarca" of Kuna Yala 
(Aleman's only victory).  Torrijos' persistent campaigning 
since his May 1999 loss to Mireya Moscoso brought him backing 
from young, energetic voters and attracted several members of 
other parties and independents.  Torrijos' youth supporters 
joined his campaign through the PRD's "Team Martin." 
Torrijos has marketed himself as a modern leader and used the 
PRD primaries to show that the PRD, once the political 
vehicle of military dictators, may indeed be Panama's most 
democratically-run party.  The PRD was so organized that 
rather than handing out campaign souvenirs like caps and 
T-shirts, they were able to sell them to finance the 
campaign.  (Comment: The Torrijos team's ability to stifle 
press coverage of Martin's tangential involvement in a 1985 
kidnapping is one of the few elements reminiscent of the 
PRD's old profile.  (See Reftel A for details.) End Comment.) 
 
 
Moscoso in the doldrums 
----------------------- 

¶3.  (C) President Mireya Moscoso, reeling from her party's 
greatest defeat ever, was clearly stunned and hurt when she 
conceded victory to Torrijos on May 2.  Running on a 
third-party ticket, Guillermo Endara, who left Moscoso's 
Arnulfista Party in early 2003 claiming that it had strayed 
from its roots under her leadership, nearly doubled 
Arnulfista Jose Miguel Aleman's anemic showing.  The sting of 
Endara's strong showing would have been bad enough without 
the massive support that Panamanians gave to Torrijos and his 
party, the Arnulfistas' arch-enemies.  Endara's slogan, "A 
Real President" spoke to Panamanians disgruntled with the 
Moscoso administration's perceived incompetence and its 
failure to halt corruption or spur employment.  Voters also 
rejected Moscoso's arrogant refusal to make her government 
more transparent as they embraced Torrijos' "more jobs, more 
security, zero corruption" message. 
 
 
What will happen to the Arnulfista's? 
------------------------------------- 

¶4.  (C) The Arnulfista Party's sound May 2 defeat could 
encourage either turnover in party leadership or exodus from 
the party.  In his May 2 concession speech, Aleman said he 
would not run again, to make way for other candidates like 
Carlos Raul Piad (his campaign manager), Marco Ameglio 
(Arnulfista's losing candidate for Mayor of Panama), and 
Alberto Vallarino (1999 third-party candidate who obtained 
17% of the vote).  Relations between Moscoso and the latter 
two, particularly Vallarino, are extremely tense.  If Moscoso 
refuses to loosen her iron grip on the Arnulfista Party, some 
observers have speculated that Endara (who could not himself 
return to the Arnulfistas having been expelled) will start a 
new party, attracting traditional Arnulfistas as he did for 
the May 2 general election.  The four months that remain in 
Moscoso's presidency might well indicate which way the party 
will go. 
 
 
What about the Legislature? 
--------------------------- 

¶5.  (SBU)  Although not all results have been tallied, 
non-official results published on the Electoral Tribunal 
website (http://www.tribunal-electoral.gob.pa) point to 
winners in 74 of 78 legislative seats and tendencies for the 
other four.  Incumbents did rather badly.  The net results 
are: 
 
 
PARTY                                      # Legislators 
-----                                      ------------- 
Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD)            36 
Arnulfista Party (PA)                           18 
Solidarity Party (PS)                            9 
Natl. Liberal Republican Movement (MOLIRENA)     4 
National Liberal Party (PLN)                     3 
Democratic Change Party (CD)                     3 
Popular Party (PP)                               1 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The four remaining seats are in hotly-contested and 
heavily-populated multi-legislator electoral circuits subject 
to Panama's complicated proportional representation formula 
to identify winners.  The PRD could win all four remaining 
seats and thereby gain an absolute majority in Panama's 
unicameral legislature.  Given the Popular Party's poor 
showing in the legislature, it is in danger of being 
dissolved if it does not obtain at least 4% of the votes for 
President as set forth in Panama's Electoral Code. 
Statistics to confirm the PP's survival or demise are not yet 
available.  (Note: The Popular Party is Panama's former 
Christian Democratic Party. End Note.) 
 
 
What observers saw 
------------------ 

¶7.  (SBU) Embassy Panama's twenty-eight volunteer observers, 
disbursed throughout the country on May 2, noted a largely 
orderly and civil process.  Like OAS observers and 
Panamanians working for the Ombudsman's Office and the 
Catholic Church's Peace and Justice Commission, we saw a 
record number of Panamanians (approximately 77% of registered 
voters) turn out to vote.  OAS Observer Chief Moises Benamor 
told PolOff that he considered Panama's electoral process to 
be exemplary in the region.  As they return to the office, 
Embassy observers are turning in questionnaires that they 
completed at each voting place about the process.  Embassy 
will analyze the results of the questionnaires to assess the 
technical aspects of the process. 
 
 
WATT