This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 001730 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2014 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM VE OAS
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA:  SIGNATURE APPEALS UPDATE 
 
REF: A. CARACAS 1656 
 
     ¶B. CARACAS 1542 
     ¶C. CARACAS 1692 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, 
for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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¶1. (C) Opponents of President Hugo Chavez and the National 
Electoral Council (CNE) continue to prepare for the signature 
appeals process ("reparos") scheduled for May 27-31. 
Relations between the international observers (OAS and the 
Carter Center) and the CNE improved slightly, but 
sensitivities remain as Chavez supporters have sunk to 
personal attacks against the observers.  The CNE is 
reportedly close to finalizing the procedure for totalling 
the signature appeals, which will reportedly include 
verification of identity documents to detect possible fraud 
at the appeals centers.  The signature appeals period for 15 
opposition and two pro-GOV deputies will take place May 
20-24.  For the presidential signature appeals May 27-31, the 
opposition remains optimistic they will mobilize enough 
people to compensate for the effects of fraud or people 
recanting their signatures.  Chavez and his supporters repeat 
constantly that the appeals process will not succeed in 
activating the recall referendum.  The international 
observers found no errors in their sample of the presidential 
appeals registers ("cuadernos") and the opposition is nearing 
completion of its audit.  End summary. 
 
-------------------------- 
Deputies Reparos May 20-24 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The National Electoral Council (CNE) has been 
preparing for the signature appeals process ("reparos") 
against opposition and pro-GOV deputies May 20-24 (the actual 
collection days are May 21-23).  During the signature drives 
in November 2003, Chavez supporters collected signatures 
against 32 opposition deputies; the opposition collected 
against 32 pro-GOV deputies.  The CNE determined that 
sufficient signatures were collected against 15 of the 
opposition deputies and two of the pro-GOV deputies for the 
deputies' signature appeals.  The CNE will appeals centers in 
12 states, corresponding to the deputies' electoral 
districts.  The OAS plans to have 13 observers and The Carter 
Center (TCC) 20 in-country for the event.  (Note:  One press 
analysis concluded that the National Assembly's balance of 
power would only be affected by the deputies' referendum 
process if two opposition deputies who currently have no 
alternates were to be recalled.) 
 
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New Rules For Adding Up Signatures 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) The CNE approved the rules for totalling the appeals 
on May 18, though has yet to publish the text.  The CNE board 
debated the rules for two weeks.  Among the points of 
contention, Coordinadora Democratica (CD) negotiator Alberto 
Quiroz said, was the CD desire to ensure the principle of 
"sudden death," or that appeals will be totalled up at the 
end of each day and not be subject to further verification 
procedures.  He added that the CD also wanted the rules to 
avoid the possibility that the CNE could nullify appeals that 
are not properly tracked on daily tally sheets ("actas") as 
happened with the November signature drive.  Finally, Quiroz 
said the CD wanted to be sure the totalization rules track 
with the appeals regulations that give the CNE just four days 
to announce the results. 
 
----------------------------- 
DIEX To Police Identity Cards 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Press reports on May 19 indicate that the CNE had 
 
approved the use of Directorate of Identification and 
Immigration (DIEX) officials in charge of identity cards 
("fiscales de cedulizacion") to canvass centers during the 
appeals period.  This had been a demand of the pro-Chavez 
Comando Ayacucho as a measure to prevent fraud.  Former 
fiscal Denis Cortez told Poloff May 19 there are no more than 
200 such officials, in his opinion an insufficient number to 
cover the appeals centers.  Cortez, who now heads the CD's 
anti-fraud committee, said that the fiscales are under the 
titular authority of the CNE, but have offices in DIEX and 
since 2003 have operated solely under DIEX authority.  Cortez 
asserted that the fiscales are biased toward GOV political 
interests and may, in fact, be facilitating alleged fraud in 
issuing false identity cards. 
 
------------------- 
Registers Look Good 
------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) The CNE completed printing the appeals registers 
("cuadernos") and has permitted the opposition and OAS/TCC to 
do an audit sample.  Quiroz told reporters May 17 that the 
CNE failed to provide proper access to the registers within 
the time stipulated in the regulations, but that the audit 
would be completed by May 18 if work continued unimpeded. 
Movement to Socialism (MAS) President Felipe Mujica told 
poloff that the CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez had been acting 
as if he were doing the opposition a favor by allowing them 
to check the accuracy of the registers.  Mujica, too, said 
the CD audit was nearly completed and they had not yet 
discovered any glaring errors.  OAS observer mission chief 
Marcelo Alvarez__ told poloff the OAS/TCC sample showed the 
registers to be "100 percent" accurate. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Repentance: Don't Ask, Don't Tell 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Whether people may withdraw their signatures because 
they claim their identity was stolen -- as the rules 
stipulate -- or whether they just have a change of heart -- 
which the Pro-Chavez Comando Ayacucho is promoting -- remains 
a subject of public debate.  Rodriguez said the parties 
agreed that the mere manifestation of the person at the 
appeals center is sufficient and such "repenters" do not need 
to state the reason for their withdrawal. 
 
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Mujica:  People Power Is Key 
---------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Mujica discounted efforts by the opposition to glean 
some advantage in the appeals process through rules or court 
cases.  The key, he said, is to mobilize more than enough 
people to go to appeals centers.  Mujica said public support 
for the appeals process is high and he expects an excellent 
turnout.  He said the GOV erred in thinking the appeals 
process would split the opposition.  Chavistas are 
"hysterical," he said, to stop the appeals, noting with 
skepticism the GOV's recent claims that Colombian 
paramilitaries had invaded Venezuela (ref c).  Mujica's own 
wife was briefly kidnapped from their home by gunmen on May 
10, which Mujica called an attempt to intimidate.  Mujica did 
not rule out that the GOV may resort to extreme measures that 
interrupt the appeals, but he believed any such efforts would 
ultimately be self-defeating. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Chavez Sees Referendum "Poco Probable" 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (U) Chavez said in an interview published by Reuters May 
18 he believed the opposition would not get enough signatures 
in the appeals process to activate the referendum against 
him.  He added that if the opposition does win, it will be 
more difficult for them because he will win the referendum. 
Chavez supporters are largely repeating this line in the 
press and in contacts with the Embassy. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Sumate Directors Ordered To Court 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (U) With one week remaining before the appeals process, 
Sumate directors Alejandro Plas and Maria Corina Machado have 
been summoned by a public prosecutor under suspicion of 
"treason and conspiracy" in relation to the NGO's receipt of 
grants from the National Endowment for Democracy.  Chavez 
leveled the charges of treason in February, after which 
prosecutors opened a case against the NGO that provides 
electoral technical support for the opposition.  Plas and 
Machado announced in a press conference on May 18 that 
despite already giving statements, they had been recalled -- 
Plas for May 21 and Machado for May 26 -- as suspects.  The 
summons could result in their detention.  Plas and Machado 
denounced the summons as an attempt to dissuade Sumate 
volunteers from supporting the appeals process. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
OAS/TCC and CNE Make Up, Until the Next Fight 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (U) After days of private discussion, the OAS/TCC and the 
CNE issued on May 17 a joint statement declaring they had 
"smoothed things over" and that the observers would stay on. 
CNE Director Rodriguez warned on May 18, however, that the 
observers are invited because of their impartiality; the 
moment they lose it, Rodriguez said, the CNE will reissue its 
ultimatum.  The dispute arose when the OAS/TCC issued a joint 
statement May 12 disputing the legality of the CNE decision 
to permit people to withdraw their names from the signature 
petitions to revoke President Chavez because they changed 
their minds.  Objecting to the statement, CNE President 
Francisco Carrasquero issued an ultimatum that the observers 
retract their statement or the CNE would "reconsider" the 
missions' participation (ref a). 
 
¶11. (C) Alvarez__ told poloff May 18 that fundamental 
disagreements remain, but that the CNE could not afford to 
lose the participation of the OAS/TCC.  Alvarez__ said he had 
"torturous" meetings with Rodriguez over how to resolve the 
dispute. (Rodriguez told reporters things were "on the slow 
road" to resolution.)  Alvarez__ predicted the dispute would 
re-ignite the next time the observers disagree publicly with 
the CNE.  Alvarez__ was irritated with Ismael Garcia, a 
National Deputy and chair of the Comando Ayacucho, had 
accused him personally May 14 of taking a vacation paid for 
by Venezuelan media magnate Gustavo Cisneros (Venevision). 
Alvarez__ said that OAS Chief of Staff Fernando Jaramillo would 
arrive on May 19 for meetings with the GOV, during which 
Alvarez_ hopes the OAS will reject the personal attacks. 
Patria Para Todos (PPT) Secretary General Jose Albornoz 
demanded publicly May 17 that the OAS/TCC "urgently" replace 
their mission chiefs, who, he said, had become politicized. 
 
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Comment 
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¶12. (C) The CNE will likely continue to scrutinize the 
international observers closely.  The Comando Ayacucho's 
personal attacks on the international observers is the 
classic Chavista maneuver of attacking individuals to 
pressure their institutions.  Chavez supporters realize that 
the international observers could make the difference between 
victory and defeat and they are trying to discredit them. 
Despite this, the signature appeals are more or less on 
track.  Mujica's confidence may be misplaced, however, as 
there are still many opportunities for the GOV to interfere 
with the process. 
 
SHAPIRO 
 
 
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      2004CARACA01730 - CONFIDENTIAL