This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001783 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2014 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID NL KAWC HR ICTY EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: COMMISSION'S POSITIVE "AVIS" ON CROATIA'S EU 
MEMBERSHIP APPLICATION 
 
REF: A. STATE 84033 
 
     ¶B. USEU TODAY 4/20/2004 
     ¶C. THE HAGUE 975 
 
Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolOff, Reasons 1.4 B/D 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) In issuing its positive recommendation April 20 for 
opening of accession negotiations with Croatia, the 
Commission has tried to stress that Croatian cooperation with 
ICTY "must continue"  and the Croatia must "take all 
necessary steps to ensure the remaining indictee is located 
and transferred to ICTY."  EU officials also note that 
further progress reports from ICTY on Croatia will be due in 
May and June.  The Irish Presidency has told fellow member 
states it does not plan to put the issue on a GAERC agenda 
until June 14.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U)  On April 20, the European Commission issued a 
positive opinion ("Avis") on Croatia's application to begin 
membership negotiations with the EU, recommending to the 
Council that "negotiations for accession to the EU should be 
opened with Croatia."  The avis does not comment on when such 
negotiations could or should begin.  As forecast in REF B, 
one key conclusion of the Commission's "avis" was to note 
that "in April 2004, the ICTY Prosecutor stated that Croatia 
is now cooperating fully with ICTY.  Croatia needs to 
maintain full cooperation and take all necessary steps to 
ensure that the remaining indictee (Ante Gotovina) is located 
and transferred to ICTY." 
 
¶3. (C) The EU's Western Balkans Working Group (COWEB) on 
April 22 was given a brief presentation from the Commission 
on its avis.  There was no debate in COWEB on the avis.  The 
Irish Presidency chair simply noted it would not prejudge the 
eventual decision by the Council on the Commission's 
recommendation.  Commissioner Patten will likely present the 
avis to EU FMs at their April 26 meeting (GAERC) in 
Luxembourg, but the Irish did not intend to have any 
discussion of the issue at either the April or May GAERCs. 
Croatia would be on the agenda only of the June 14 GAERC. 
(NOTE: Discussion of the issue at lower levels, beginning 
with COWEB, would have to begin some weeks before that.  End 
Note.)  Expectations are that the June 17-18 European Council 
will take a decision on whether to begin Croatia's 
negotiation, but the Irish are not absolutely committed to 
that calendar. 
 
¶4. (S) We have spoken with COWEB representatives and 
Commissioner Patten's staff about the avis.  They have all 
noted the EU shares our surprise (REF A) at the report from 
ICTY Prosecutor Del Ponte that Croatia was "now fully 
cooperating."  Both the Dutch COWEB rep (protect) and Patten 
advisor Patrick Rock were keen to stress that the EU believes 
"Croatia is not off the hook yet."  EU pressure had helped 
produce the improved Croatian cooperation with ICTY cited in 
Del Ponte's letter, but the EU has stressed Croatia "must 
continue its cooperation."  The EU will pay close attention 
to further reports from ICTY that will include coverage of 
Croatia's behavior.  (According to Rock these include a May 7 
report by the ICTY President -- not Del Ponte -- to the 
Council of Europe, a May 31 written report from Del Ponte to 
the UNSC, and a June 15 -- immediately preceding the EU's 
decision -- oral report by Del Ponte to the UNSC.)  Our Dutch 
contact noted that EU monitoring of Croatian cooperation with 
ICTY would still continue even after negotiations might 
begin, with a negative report at any time potentially 
derailing Croatia's progress. 
 
¶5. (S) In response to REF A points arguing Del Ponte's 
assessment was insufficient, Rock said that all the 
Commission knew about Del Ponte's justifications for her view 
was what she put in her letter.  He suggested the USG push 
Del Ponte harder to "spell out in terms" the basis for her 
change of position and lay out any evidence we might have 
indicating the Croatians are providing less than full 
cooperation.  "But that is the kind of conversation the 
Commission can't have with her," Rock added, since the 
Commission does not have access to any intelligence on the 
issue.  Our Dutch contact (protect) said that in his 
conversation with ICTY Special political Advisor Ruch, he had 
been given much the same report on ICTY-GoC interaction as 
reported REF C, with the additional note that the Office of 
the Prosecutor was now pushing the GoC on implementation of 
an "action plan" that has a "timeline of 2 to 3 months."  Our 
contact observed that timeline would appear to extend beyond 
the EU's own decision-making calendar.  He noted that the 
Dutch "would love to believe Del Ponte has assurances of 
results" in the coming weeks, but are not at all confident 
that is the case. 
 
¶6. (C) COMMENT:  The key now will be to leverage the 
Commission's positive avis as best we can with Croatia.  Our 
sense is that the EU is primed to respond if Del Ponte should 
reverse or revise her assessment of Croatian cooperation over 
the course of the next two months.  While the Commission avis 
notes that "additional efforts" will be needed by Croatia in 
a variety of policy areas (notably minority rights, refugee 
returns and judicial reform), the key message to the GoC 
needs to be that the path is clear to opening EU membership 
negotiations: the only thing that could trip them up between 
now and June would be if they fail to "take all necessary 
steps to ensure the remaining indictee is located and 
transferred to ICTY."  End Comment. 
 
SCHNABEL