This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 000928 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
NSC FOR DEMPSEY 
TREASURY FOR OASIA/SEGAL 
STATE FOR EB/IFD/OMA - O'REILLY 
USDOC FOR 3134/USFCS/OIL/WH 
USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN PGOV PREL BR
SUBJECT: MEIRELLES:  BRAZIL'S ECONOMY HAS FUNDAMENTALLY 
CHANGED 
 
REFS: A) Rio de Janeiro 363    B) Brasilia 786 
      C) Brasilia 657          D) Brasilia 613 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Central Bank President Meirelles, target 
of sustained political attacks over Brazil's continued high 
interest rates and unemployment plus popular perceptions 
that the economy is worsening, has unrepentantly asserted 
that Brazil's economy not only is growing, but has undergone 
a fundamental positive shift.  For the first time in its 
history, he told the press on April 5, Brazil's economy, 
exports and trade surplus are growing at the same time; 
moreover, the Central Bank is now even predicting a slight 
current-account surplus this year, second in a row. 
Meirelles' thesis is that Brazil's maintenance of trade and 
current account surpluses even with the current double-digit 
growth in imports results not just from weak growth and the 
fall in real income but from an evolution in Brazil's 
economic structure.  His implication is that Brazil has 
already largely freed itself from its historic external 
financial vulnerability, i.e., the old trade-off between 
domestic growth and external deficits, which has long 
contributed to the stop-and-go nature of growth here.  End 
summary. 
 
¶2. (U) As Meirelles departed after speaking to an April 5 
Rio de Janeiro Commercial Association lunch (ref A), he 
commented to the press that economic analysts of Brazil were 
missing a major point:  not only has growth returned, but 
Brazil is for the first time simultaneously experiencing GDP 
growth, export growth and trade-surplus growth. 
Traditionally in Brazil, as growth boosted incomes, demand 
for goods, sucked in imports and diverted local products 
from export to domestic markets.  Standard result: 
burgeoning trade and especially current-account deficits. 
This tension between growth and external deficits has been 
at the heart of Brazil's stop-and-go growth cycles for 
thirty years.  Its lessening since 2001 amounts to a 
"fundamental change," and it will take a while for everyone 
to perceive it, Meirelles said to the press after his 
speech. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Assessing Meirelles' claim is not straightforward. 
Brazil's 2003 trade and current account surpluses had a lot 
to do with depressed import demand resulting from weak 
economic growth and depressed real incomes.  Imports in 2002 
and 2003 dropped to $47.2 billion and $48.2 billion, 
respectively, from $55.6 billion in 2001.  Meanwhile, 
exports were surging, spurred by the competitive effect of 
devaluation and by rising commodity prices.  WTO figures 
show Brazil's 2003 exports of $73.1 billion moved it up 
modestly in the rankings to become the world's 25th largest 
exporter.  An economic advisor in the Ministry of Planning 
has told us that the GoB now is forecasting exports of about 
$85 billion this year (growth of almost 20%), and imports of 
about $61.5 billion (up 27.6%), for a trade balance of 
around $24 billion.  In line with that expectation, the 
first quarter trade surplus, according to the latest 
figures, was $6.17 billion.  A Central Bank director told us 
that, given these trade surplus results, the GoB is now 
predicting a small current account surplus this year, which 
would be Brazil's second in a row.  The GoB's original 
forecast in late 2003 was for a USD four billion current- 
account deficit. 
 
¶4. (SBU) For Meirelles to be right about the fundamental 
nature of this shift in Brazil's export competitiveness and 
orientation, the surge in exports must be accounted for by 
more than simple devaluation.  Former chief economic advisor 
to the Planning Ministry Jose Carlos Miranda argues that 
productivity increases in Brazilian industry played a 
substantial role in export growth in 2002/2003.  In a March 
23 meeting, Miranda, now head of the Ministry's 
international department, told us that investments in 
updated plant and equipment since 2000 had significantly 
increased productivity growth in Brazil's industry, 
particularly in machine building.  While it is difficult to 
untangle the competitive effects of devaluation of the Real 
over 2002-2003 from the productivity growth, Miranda argued 
that the continuation of double-digit export growth even 
after the Real's revaluation starting in late 2002 points to 
the existence of a structural shift, which he attributes to 
that productivity growth.  The fact that Brazil now is 
exporting tractors to the U.S. and EU exemplifies these 
productivity increases as well as the growing sophistication 
of Brazilian industry, according to Miranda. 
 
¶5. (SBU) If Meirelles is right that Brazil's economy is 
already recovering strongly and will register substantial 
growth in 2004, then the prospect of a simultaneous large 
trade surplus (perhaps even a current-account surplus) 
despite double-digit-import growth this year, would indeed 
seem a potential watershed.  This element in Meirelles' 
argument is still open to dispute, however.  As pointed out 
in Ref B, various recent data points in this context have 
been inconclusive or negative.  Nor have we yet seen any 
empirical data to quantify the degree to which export 
results since 2001 have been gained by other than favorable 
world-commodity-price and foreign exchange movements. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Perhaps the most striking aspect of Meirelles 
argument is the light it sheds on his own and the Central 
Bank's apparent beliefs and motives in persisting with the 
Central Bank's steady policy of holding the monetary line 
despite the intensified hail of political accusations that 
he is an extreme dogmatist out of touch with the real 
economic world (Refs B, C and D).  But, even if Meirelles 
and Miranda are wrong about Brazil's economy already being 
in the process of a fundamental and permanent shift, 
exports' performance this year should at a minimum be good 
enough to postpone for a while worries about Brazil's 
external position. 
 
¶7. (SBU) In any case, sustaining strong export growth will 
require that Brazil implement the sorts of microeconomic 
reforms that attract significant infrastructure investments, 
particularly to de-bottleneck the ports and transportation 
systems.  And though Brazil's exports meanwhile continue to 
benefit from incremental expansions in world markets, its 
dogmatic negotiating stances in the FTAA and WTO Doha Round 
will hobble the kind of structural adjustment Meirelles 
claims is occurring. 
 
HRINAK