This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

291334Z Mar 04

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001906 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/14 
TAGS: PGOV PREL IS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: SHARON INDICTMENT RECOMMENDATION NO SURPRISE; MOST 
POLITICAL LEADERS KEEPING MUM 
 
REF: A) TEL AVIV 808 B) TEL AVIV 470 C) TEL AVIV 424 
 
Classified By: DCM Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 B and D. 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: The long-anticipated word this past weekend 
that State Prosecutor Edna Arbel intends to recommend 
indictment of PM Sharon on bribery charges leaves unchanged 
for now the calculus that PM Sharon, if thick-skinned enough, 
can manage his legal and political problems, and remain in 
office (Ref A).  Neither an eventual indictment request by 
the Attorney General, nor the necessary parliamentary waiver 
of Sharon's immunity to allow that indictment, are certain, 
and, under existing law, Sharon can remain in office until 
any eventual conviction has been upheld on appeal.  Sharon 
Chief of Staff Dov Weissglas confidently predicted March 28 
that no indictment will come forward.  Further, media 
punditry notwithstanding, the possibility of the Supreme 
Court entertaining a petition forcing Sharon to resign, if 
indicted, is slim.  While a conceivably weakened Sharon could 
try to cut a deal with the Attorney General to resign rather 
than face prosecution of both himself and his son Gilad, both 
Sharons also stand implicated in the so-called Cyril Kern 
bribery affair, in which observers say the corruption 
evidence is even stronger.  Accordingly Sharon would have to 
cut deals in two cases to gain any protection.  Were he to 
either resign or be forced from office, Likud would choose 
from within its ranks a Knesset member -- most likely Bibi 
Netanyahu -- to form and head this or a new government, 
without the need for national elections.  If the indictment 
goes forward, Likud leaders and coalition partners will thus 
have to decide whether they prefer a Gaza-withdrawal-averse 
Netanyahu to a tainted Sharon - not an obvious call for many. 
 In the meantime, Sharon has asserted that if any coalition 
parties quit after his return from Washington later this 
month, he will form a new government "on the same day."  End 
summary. 
 
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Most Party Leaders Have Wait-and-See Approach 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The reportedly unanimous recommendation by State 
Prosecutor Edna Arbel and her team that AG Menahem Mazuz 
indict PM Sharon on bribery charges in the so-called "Greek 
Island Affair" has generated media interest but few demands 
from opposition or coalition leaders for PM Sharon to step 
down.  AG Mazuz enjoys a reputation as a big picture guy, and 
one who will demand the strongest evidence before seeking the 
Knesset vote to waive Sharon's immunity, which would be 
necessary to pursue an indictment.  With indictment still 
only a possibility, and many tough steps between there and 
conviction, three of 22 other ministers have spoken out. 
Tourism Minister Benny Elon of the National Union party and 
(Shinui) Infrastructure Minister Yosef Paritzky, have called 
for Sharon's resignation if he is indicted.  Hard-line Likud 
Minister without Portfolio Uzi Landau called on Sharon, if 
indicted, "to temporarily suspend himself."  Paritzky, 
considered an individualist within his party, does not 
necesssarily reflect his colleagues' views, and Landau and 
Elon are staunchly against Sharon's withdrawal plans.  In 
contrast, the silence from Labor leader Shimon Peres, Shinui 
Party leader and Justice Minister Tommy Lapid, FinMin 
Benyamin Netanyahu and FM Silvan Shalom indicates that it is 
early in the game to be staking out ground.  In each case, 
leaders have to assess whether they can better achieve their 
aims -- both personal and for their parties -- with a tainted 
Sharon or with a likely Netanyahu premiership that would last 
until the next scheduled national elections in either 2006 or 
2007 (Ref A). 
 
¶3.  (C) With Labor quietly considering a possible unity 
government with Likud if the right wing bolts the coalition 
over Sharon's Gaza disengagement plan, it has kept its 
commentary on the indictment low key and restrained.  Labor 
MK Ofir Pines-Paz called on Sharon to "suspend" himself until 
the AG reaches a decision.  Labor MK Dalia Itzik, who had 
recently met with Sharon on disengagement, recommended that 
the Labor Party "wait patiently" until the AG reaches a 
decision.  Public comments aside, Labor faces the choice of 
either sticking with Sharon in the hope of seeing his Gaza 
withdrawal plan move forward, and possibly getting invited 
into a coalition if and when the rightist parties bolt over 
withdrawal, or dealing with a withdrawal-averse Netanyahu. 
 
¶4.  (C) Shinui campaigned in the last elections with an 
anti-corruption plank, and Interior Minister Avraham Poraz 
said in January that Sharon would be compelled to resign if 
indicted.  That said, the same "justice" campaigning that got 
Shinui elected may equally be turned around to an "innocent 
until proven guilty" position in support of a Sharon willing 
to withdraw from Gaza.  Paritzky's threat that Shinui would 
leave the coalition rather than serve with an indicted Sharon 
has not been repeated by the party's other leaders, although 
one MK made such an assertion to poloff in February. 
Paritzky went so far as to suggest that Shinui should leave 
the coalition even absent an indictment if the evidence 
points to wrongoing.  Justice Minister Tommy Lapid said in 
January that any conclusions would have to be drawn if and 
when an indictment were issued. 
 
 
¶5.  (C) Shinui could well be replaced on the spot, in any 
event, by the rightist religious parties Shas and United 
Torah Judaism, themselves home to previous corruption 
convictions.  Shas and UTJ would also be available to replace 
National Union and the National Religious Party within the 
coalition, but the latter are unlikely to leave over an 
indictment, preferring instead to save their thunder for 
resignations over Gaza withdrawal.  While inclusion of Shas 
and UTJ would challenge the secularist Shinui's continued 
participation in the coalition, Shinui could, in turn, be 
replaced by a Labor party determined to support a Sharon 
withdrawal initiative.  Within Likud, as noted Ref A, the 
gaggle of Sharon successor candidates must evaluate where 
their personal interests lie.  Sharon noted publicly March 29 
that he is prepared to replace on the same day any parties 
that leave the coalition over his withdrawal plan. 
 
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How Far to Go in Protecting Gilad? 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) One outstanding issue for Sharon remains the degree 
to which he will make a decision based on the threat to his 
younger son, Gilad.  Gilad's high-paid consultancy to 
developer Appel's failed Greek island development project is 
being taken as key to the bribery charges against the PM. 
While Sharon enjoys parliamentary immunity, Gilad has no such 
protection.  The degree of his vulnerability to criminal 
charges in the Greek Island affair is uncertain.  Observers 
note, however, that Gilad is also implicated in the so-called 
Cyril Kern affair in which it is alleged illegal 
contributions were funnelled through Sharon's Sycamore Farm 
to repay other illegal campaign contributions.  On March 29, 
the Supreme Court ruled that Gilad had to hand over to the 
police all documents and videotapes related to the Appel and 
Kern cases.  Accordingly, Sharon might be prompted as a last 
resort to try to negotiate a withdrawal of indictment in 
return for his resignation, but if observers of the 
respective cases are right, he would need to negotiate for 
both himself and Gilad and for two separate cases. 
 
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Weissglas Dismisses Indictment 
------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) PM Sharon's COS Dov Weissglas told visiting former 
Ambassador and NEA Assistant Secretary Edward Djerejian March 
28 that the those surrounding the PM are confident Sharon 
will not be indicted.  He added that Arbel's announcement was 
no surprise.  Other statements coming from the PM's office 
echo this view.  Sharon had not issued any statements, but 
the media speculate that he may address Arbel's 
recommendation at the Likud Party Convention on March 30, 
where it is anticipated that rank-and-file Likudniks will 
support him, since many view the State Prosecutor as being 
clearly linked to the left. 
 
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Post-Indictment Scenario 
------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) Some media reports speculate, however, that Sharon's 
Likud and coalition colleagues could exert enough heat to 
force him to resign upon an indictment.  IDF radio reported 
on March 29 that "senior Likud officials" will ask Sharon to 
resign if he is indicted.  The broadcast also asserted that 
"close associates of the prime minister" are hinting that 
Sharon will not remain at his post if indicted. 
 
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