This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PANAMA 000705 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PM LABOR HUMAN RIGHTSPOLMIL
SUBJECT: PANAMA'S ELECTION CAMPAIGN: VERAGUAS PROVINCE IS 
TORRIJOS-LANDIA 
 
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Summary 
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¶1. (SBU) On March 14, seven weeks before Panama's May 2 
general elections, PolOffs toured rural Veraguas province 
with members of three of the four party coalitions vying for 
the presidency and 78 legislative seats.  Though 
Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) presidential candidate 
Martin Torrijos lost the province in 1999, most interlocutors 
said they expect a big Torrijos victory this year.  Torrijos 
coattails will almost surely return three of four PRD 
incumbent legislators.  Torrijos appears to attract Veraguas 
voters worried about agricultural unemployment.  Solidarity 
Party presidential candidate Guillermo Endara's 
"anti-corruption" message is not getting traction in 
Veraguas, and his campaign manager Menalco Solis already 
concedes an across-the-board loss in the province.  While the 
PRD machine in Veraguas is formidable, the Torrijos campaign 
is not taking any chances, and is fighting Arnulfista Party 
"dirty tricks" with its own. 
 
 
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Background 
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¶2. (U)  Rising up from jungle-surrounded subsistence farms on 
the Atlantic coast to small coffee plots in the mountainous 
continental divide and then back down to expansive 
cattle-grazing plains and fishing villages along the Pacific 
coast, Veraguas is Panama's third largest voting province 
with 7.5% of the national electorate.  Dictator General Omar 
Torrijos, father of Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) 
presidential candidate Martin Torrijos, was a Veraguas native 
son, from the province's capital, Santiago, where more than 
elsewhere in Panama, PRD campaign paraphernalia includes the 
dictator's image.  Panamanian President Mireya Moscoso 
carried the province in 1999 by just 3,941 votes, but the PRD 
captured four of the province's six legislative seats. 
 
 
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Home, Sweet Home 
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¶3. (U) This year, Torrijos should win Veraguas by a 
comfortable margin, taking with him at least three of four 
PRD incumbent legislators.  PRD Veraguas elections 
coordinator Arturo Fabrega predicted Torrijos would win as 
much as 65% of the vote, holding Arnulfista Party 
presidential candidate Jose Miguel Aleman to 20%.  Fabrega 
also stated that the fourth PRD incumbent, Pedro Miguel 
Gonzalez, is in a close race with Arnulfista legislative 
challenger Jose "Pepe" Gomez (septel).  Gomez concurred that 
Veraguas is "Torrijos country" and that at least three PRD-PP 
legislative candidates would win.  Menalco Solis, campaign 
manager for Solidarity Party presidential candidate Guillermo 
Endara and accompanying the candidate on a March 14 caravan 
through Veraguas, did not believe Endara or Solidarity's 
legislative candidates would do well in Veraguas.  Solidarity 
had problems finding and has problems retaining "suplente" 
(alternate legislator) candidates.  PRD Fabrega told PolOffs 
of first-time, walk-in campaign volunteers being offered 
spots on the ballot and of a number of Solidarity candidates 
later withdrawing.  Endara's March 14 tour of the province 
was to buck-up Solidarity's legislative candidates, but 
conceding a Torrijos victory, Endara has no plans to return. 
 
 
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Playing to the Crowd 
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¶4. (U) Endara's "anti-corruption" focus has received scant 
attention from Veraguas voters who are more concerned about 
agricultural unemployment.  Not even Endara's choice for 
second vice president (and former Moscoso Agriculture 
Minister) Alejandro Posse has helped attract this rural vote. 
 According to PRD Fabrega and Arnulfista Gomez, and as 
witnessed by PolOffs who accompanied both parties' candidates 
on "caminatas" (door-to-door campaigning), Veraguas voters 
are asking for the GOP's help to improve crop yields. 
Demands for agricultural subsidies or protective tariffs are 
not prevalent, and the possible US-Panama free trade 
agreement (FTA) is so far a non-issue.  Fabrega claimed that 
Torrijos has found support by promising low-interest farming 
loans and by attacking Moscoso's Agriculture Ministry for not 
providing enough training on the latest farming methods. 
These themes also resonate with Santiago voters who work in 
farming-related industries and with independent voters.  The 
Torrijos campaign, especially, is going after those two 
demographics, hitting houses in the provincial capital as 
many as three times before the May 2 elections and setting 
the goal of 10,000 independents for the Torrijos column. 
Every street is divided and assigned a warden 
("segmentacion"), and "converts" are put through a party 
orientation. 
 
 
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Tit for Tat? 
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¶5. (SBU) PRD Fabrega plans to avoid the mistakes made in 1999 
that lost the province to Moscoso.  In addition to the above 
noted "caminatas," "segmentacion" system and party 
orientations, Fabrega will monitor exit poll results from 21 
voting centers which represent 70% of the province's 
electorate.  Based on the data, Fabrega plans to focus 
last-minute get-out-the-vote efforts.  Aside from these 
legitimate election tactics, when Fabrega was asked about 
"vote buying" and "vote verification"-- elderly voters 
pressured to claim disabled status, which allows someone else 
to accompany them into the voting booth-- instead of 
responding, he counter-charged that the Arnulfistas are 
buying voter cards to tamp down PRD totals.  Fabrega implied 
that the PRD may be planning to use such tactics and that 
they are a legitimate response. 
 
 
 
 
WATT