This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000949 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
    STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2014 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM VE
SUBJECT: REGIONAL ELECTIONS WILL TEST OPPOSITION UNITY 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: ABELARDO A. ARIAS, POLITICAL COUNSELOR, 
FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (C) THE REGISTRATION OF CANDIDATES FOR VENEZUELA'S AUGUST 
1 GUBERNATORIAL AND MAYORAL ELECTIONS BEGAN MARCH 16. 
OPPOSITION GROUPS FACE THE CHALLENGE OF MAINTAINING UNITY IN 
THEIR EFFORTS TO REVOKE THE MANDATE OF PRESIDENT HUGO CHAVEZ 
WHILE COMPETING FOR THE REGIONAL ELECTIONS.  OPPOSITION 
LEADERS HOPE TO TURN THE ELECTIONS INTO A PLEBISCITE AGAINST 
CHAVEZ, THOUGH IN-FIGHTING IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PRESENT 
A BROAD FRONT AGAINST THE GOV.  IF THE PRESIDENTIAL RECALL 
REFERENDUM GOES FORWARD IN THE SAME TIME PERIOD, THE 
OPPOSITION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AGAINST PRO-CHAVEZ 
CANDIDATES, AND VICE VERSA.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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REGIONAL ELECTIONS AUGUST 1 
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¶2. (C) ELECTIONS FOR VENEZUELA'S GOVERNORS (23 STATES PLUS 
THE CARACAS FEDERAL DISTRICT MAYOR) AND MAYORS (335 
    MUNICIPALITIES) ARE SCHEDULED TO TAKE PLACE AUGUST 1. 
REGISTRATION OF CANDIDATES BEGAN MARCH 16 AND ENDS MARCH 30 
(CANDIDATES MUST FILE BY MARCH 23).  THE NATIONAL ELECTORAL 
COUNCIL (CNE) ANNOUNCED MARCH 16 THAT INCUMBENTS RUNNING FOR 
RE-ELECTION WOULD NOT NEED TO RESIGN THEIR POSITIONS TO 
CAMPAIGN, THOUGH MINISTERS OR ELECTED OFFICIALS RUNNING FOR A 
DIFFERENT OFFICE MUST RESIGN UPON ANNOUNCING THEIR 
CANDIDACIES.  THE NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL (CNE) IS 
PRESSING FORWARD WITH THE ELECTIONS SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH THE 
PENDING PRESIDENTIAL RECALL REFERENDUM, WHICH THE OPPOSITION 
HOPES THE CNE WILL CONVENE BEFORE AUGUST. 
 
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OPPOSITION UNITY INTACT FOR NOW 
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¶3. (C) OPPOSITION GROUPS HAD BEEN SPLIT OVER WHETHER EVEN TO 
PARTICIPATE IN THE REGIONAL ELECTIONS GIVEN THE CNE'S 
QUESTIONABLE HANDLING OF THE SIGNATURE VERIFICATION PROCESS. 
THE COORDINADORA DEMOCRATICA (CD) ANNOUNCED MARCH 18, 
HOWEVER, THAT OPPOSITION PARTIES HAD AGREED TO PARTICIPATE. 
THE NOTICEABLE HOLDOUTS REMAIN PROYECTO VENEZUELA (PV), 
HEADED BY HENRIQUE SALAS ROMER, AND PRIMERO JUSTICIA (PJ). 
MOVEMENT TO SOCIALISM (MAS) PRESIDENT FELIPE MUJICA TOLD 
POLOFF MARCH 18 HE SAW BOTH PARTIES COMING AROUND TOWARD 
PARTICIPATION.  CAUSA R LEADER ANDRES VELASQUEZ TOLD POLOFF 
MARCH 19 IT WOULD NOT BE LOGICAL FOR ONLY ONE PARTY TO 
BOYCOTT, ESPECIALLY PJ, WHICH WOULD LOSE THE KEY MAYORSHIPS 
OF CHACAO AND BARUTA IN METROPOLITAN CARACAS. 
 
¶4. (C) MUJICA SAID PUBLICLY THAT THE OPPOSITION HAS A CHANCE 
    TO TURN THE REGIONAL ELECTIONS INTO A PLEBISCITE AGAINST THE 
GOV.  HE NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE OPPOSITION WOULD NEED TO 
FIELD SINGLE CANDIDATES IN EACH RACE TO OPPOSE THE PRO-CHAVEZ 
CANDIDATE.  HE SAID THE OPPOSITION IS ON THE VERGE OF MAKING 
A "SERIOUS ERROR" BY PERMITTING SEVERAL OPPOSITION PARTIES TO 
REGISTER CANDIDATES.  HE SAID THAT SALAS ROMER WILL NOT 
COORDINATE CANDIDACIES WITH OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES, AND PJ, 
TRYING TO MAINTAIN ITS IMAGE AS A NON-TRADITIONAL PARTY, HAS 
RESISTED COLLABORATING THE CD ON THIS POINT.  HE BELIEVES 
PJ'S DEARTH OF CANDIDATES AROUND THE COUNTRY, HOWEVER, WILL 
MINIMIZE HOW THE DIFFERENCES ARE RESOLVED. 
 
¶5. (C) VELASQUEZ SAID IT WAS "CRAZINESS" FOR OPPOSITION 
POLITICIANS TO ACT ON PERSONAL AMBITION WHEN PRO-CHAVEZ 
CANDIDATES COUNT ON AT LEAST 30 PERCENT SUPPORT NATIONWIDE. 
FOR THIS REASON, VELASQUEZ, WHO IS A NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
DEPUTY, SAID HE HAD DECIDED NOT TO RUN FOR GOVERNOR OF 
ANZOATEGUI OR BOLIVAR, WHERE HE SAYS HE HAS GOOD SUPPORT. 
MUJICA SAID THE PROBLEM OF IN-FIGHTING IS WORSE AT THE 
MAYORAL LEVEL, PREDICTING THAT, AT THE GUBERNATORIAL LEVEL, 
THE OPPOSITION WOULD WIN 18 OF 24 STATES. 
 
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CARACAS 00000949  002 OF 002 
 
OF THE CNE WAS NOT 
A REASONABLE EXCUSE NOT TO PARTICIPATE IN REGIONAL ELECTIONS. 
 FRAUD OR MISHANDLING OF THE ELECTIONS, HE SAID, IS SOMETHING 
THAT THE OPPOSITION WILL HAVE TO CONFRONT IF IT OCCURS. 
PRIVATELY, MUJICA BELIEVES THE CNE IS COMPLETELY BIASED 
TOWARD THE GOV AND FURTHER DOUBTS THE CNE WILL BE ABLE TO 
ADMINISTER FAIR ELECTIONS.  VELASQUEZ REPORTED THAT HIS 
SOURCES WITHIN THE CNE SAID THE ELECTORAL AUTHORITY HAD 
CONSIDERED POSTPONING THE ELECTIONS UNTIL DECEMBER TO ALLOW 
MORE PREPARATION TIME.  CHAVEZ SUPPORTERS WITHIN THE 
INSTITUTION REFUSED BECAUSE, VELASQUEZ ASSERTS, THE GOV WANTS 
THE ELECTIONS TO COINCIDE WITH THE REFERENDUM WITH THE HOPE 
OF DISTRACTING THE ELECTORATE. 
 
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REGIONALS AND THE REFERENDUM 
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¶6. (C) BOTH MUJICA AND VELASQUEZ AGREED THAT THE OPPOSITION 
STILL GIVES TOP PRIORITY TO THE REFERENDUM AND IS SQUARELY 
UNIFIED BEHIND IT.  BOTH AGREED THAT IF THE REFERENDUM DOES 
NOT GO FORWARD, IT WILL NEGATIVELY EFFECT THE OPPOSITION'S 
    CHANCES IN GUBERNATORIAL AND MAYORAL RACES, ESPECIALLY IF 
PEOPLE BLAME THE OPPOSITION FOR THE RECALL'S DEMISE. 
CONVERSELY, SAID VELASQUEZ IF A REFERENDUM IS HELD AND CHAVEZ 
IS RECALLED, THE CNE WILL HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO POSTPONE 
REGIONAL ELECTIONS UNTIL THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS 
ARRANGED. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶7. (C)  THE OPPOSITION NEEDS WINS IN THE GUBERNATORIAL AND 
MAYORAL ARENA IF THE FIGHT WITH CHAVEZ DRAGS OUT TO 2006.  WE 
EXPECT THE OPPOSITION POLITICAL PARTIES WILL CONTINUE TO 
JOCKEY FOR CANDIDACIES, WITH THE LIKELY RESULT THAT THE 
OPPOSITION VOTE IN SOME RACES WILL BE SPLIT TO THE CHAVISTAS' 
ADVANTAGE.  THE GOV IS HOPING THE OPPOSITION'S INTERNAL 
CONFLICTS WILL LEAD TO A DECISIVE ELECTORAL BLOW AGAINST 
THEIR POLITICAL CAPITAL.  WE ALSO SEE THE CNE'S LACK OF 
FAIRNESS IN THE VERIFICATION PROCESS AS A BAD OMEN FOR THE 
EFFICIENCY AND TRANSPARENCY OF THE REGIONAL ELECTIONS. 
SHAPIRO 
 
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      2004CARACA00949 - CONFIDENTIAL