This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 000801 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2014 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM VE
SUBJECT: THE NARROW ROAD TO THE SIGNATURE APPEALS PROCESS 
 
REF: A. CARACAS 786 
 
     ¶B. CARACAS 740 
     ¶C. CARACAS 730 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, 
for reason 1.4(d). 
 
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Summary 
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¶1. (C) The GOV and the opposition continue to negotiate the 
appeals process ("reparos") that will determine the fate of 
the signatures presidential referendum against President Hugo 
Chavez.  The National Electoral Council (CNE) March 7 
delivered its computerized version of the results of the 
verification of the signatures to the opposition, which 
classified it as a "disaster."  An OAS observer confirmed 
this assessment, noting that the CNE's handling of the 
signatures has been incompetent at best.  The opposition must 
strike a balance between bringing pressure against the CNE 
for its shoddy work and keeping the institution functional to 
reach the appeals process.  As is, the dates for the appeals 
process may slip to mid-April.  End Summary. 
 
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GOV And DCC Negotiations 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) delivered a 
computerized version of the results of the verification of 
the presidential recall referendum signatures to the 
opposition on March 7.  The turnover of the data is part of 
the negotiations to design an appeals process ("reparos") for 
the signatures.  Representatives of the Democratic 
Coordinating Committee (DCC) told poloff March 8 that the 
database was a "disaster" of disorganized information.  OAS 
observer Marcelo Alvarez told polcouns on March 9 that the 
CNE's arbitrary application of the verification norms to the 
opposition signatures indicates either an intentional effort 
to scuttle the referendum or, at best, complete ineptitude at 
the CNE.  The CNE, Alvarez noted, still has "a mountain of 
work" to finalize the tally, but he did not expect the CNE's 
count to change by much from what had already been announced. 
 Alvarez said he feared the opposition might make so much 
political hay of the CNE's dubious work that the CNE board 
would go into crisis before an appeals process can be held. 
 
¶3. (C) The opposition plans to take a few days to analyze the 
CNE data.  Alvarez said that if the opposition can resist the 
temptation to blast the CNE over the multitude of errors they 
are likely to uncover, they may be able to use the 
information to get the CNE to agree to a longer appeals 
process with more signatures up for grabs.  The two sides, 
Alvarez said, are bound by an agreement that gives them 15 
days to prepare for the appeals process once they come to 
agreement on the parameters.  Alvarez expressed concern that 
the appeals process would be further delayed by Holy Week 
(April 4-11), thus pushing the process off to mid-April. 
 
¶4. (C) CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez said publicly March 8 
that, with the database delivered, the opposition must decide 
to go to the appeals process before the end of the week or 
the CNE would proceed with its original plan for the appeals 
process.  (Note:  Opposition negotiators rejected the CNE's 
initial proposal as not feasible.  The NGO Sumate and 
international observers also agree that this proposal would 
not be viable.)  The opposition is analyzing the data to 
determine how the appeals process should work for it to 
bridge the difference between the approximately 1.8 million 
signatures validated by the CNE and 2.4 million minimum 
required. 
 
¶5. (C) Alvarez commented that the Carter Center is taking the 
lead in facilitating the negotiations at the CNE.  The OAS 
prefers to maintain its role as observers, he said, but still 
consults closely with the Carter Center for the negotiations. 
 Alvarez said CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez is the only member 
of the CNE board participating in the negotiations.  He said 
 
Rodriguez is combative, applying the rules when it suits him, 
ignoring them when they do not.  Miranda State Governor 
Enrique Mendoza and Movement to Socialism (MAS) President 
Felipe Mujica continue to negotiate for the opposition.  The 
DCC representatives have told us the GOV is represented by 
Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) National Assembly Deputy 
Willian Lara and Podemos Deputy Ismael Garcia. 
 
------------------- 
Opposition Strategy 
------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) DCC representatives expect the next two weeks to 
determine the fate of the referendum.  Unity among the 
opposition has improved since the March 2 CNE announcement of 
the preliminary results, they said, with most groups 
realizing that negotiations with the CNE is the only 
practical alternative.  The massive march on March 6 
demonstrated, they said, the desire of the opposition to 
continue the peaceful and democratic route of the appeals 
process.  Some sectors of the opposition, however, most 
notably Henrique Salas Romer, have accused the opposition of 
"negotiating away" the signatures.  The DCC has denied this 
publicly, but is in fact negotiating the numbers of valid 
signatures and how many will go to the appeals process 
(currently 1.1 million) and how long the process will be 
(currently two days).  The DCC representatives said the 
opposition would focus its media campaign on the CNE's need 
to respect the will of the signers and to reach an 
accommodation on the appeals process. 
 
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Comment 
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¶7. (C) The CNE's best defense may be that the opposition 
cannot afford to discredit it so much as to damage the CNE's 
ability to mount the appeals process.  The opposition is 
feeling somewhat heady with the swing of public opinion 
(national and international) going its way.  But we believe 
scenarios that envision Chavez backing down and granting all 
concessions for the appeals process to work to be too 
optimistic.  We also note while the sides quibble over the 
design of the appeals process, time is frittering away:  a 
referendum should be called by mid-May if it is to be held 
before August 19, when a recalled Chavez can still be 
replaced via an election. 
SHAPIRO 
 
 
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      2004CARACA00801 - CONFIDENTIAL