This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000282 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL, PPD 
EUR/CACEN FOR EUGENIA SIDEREAS AND MARGARET PAWLICK 
DRL FOR KIMBER SHEARER AND WENDY SILVERMAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PHUM ZJ TU AM EUN
SUBJECT: ARMENIAN POLITICIANS POSTURE AFTER "WIDER 
EUROPE" PRONOUNCEMENTS IN TBLISI, EU VISIT 
 
 
¶1. (U) Sensitive But Unclassified.  Please treat 
accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶2. (SBU) Recent statements by EU officials in Tblisi 
suggesting a more concrete role for the South 
Caucasus countries in the "Wider Europe" initiative 
incited an unusual surge of Euro-friendly political 
posturing in Armenia.  GOAM officials and 
politicians went so far as to characterize the 
January 28-30 visit of EU Special Representative 
Heikki Talvitie as a sign of Armenia's "privileged" 
place in Brussels' South Caucasus agenda.  Talvitie 
told us January 29 that a policy of simultaneous 
visits to all three South Caucasus countries was 
important to maintain equity and avoid accusations 
of favoritism.  End summary. 
 
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EUROPE ON EVERYONE'S MINDS -- OR AT LEAST LIPS 
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¶3. (U) The EU's January 27 statements suggesting a 
more concrete role for the South Caucasus states in 
the "Wider Europe" initiative incited an 
unprecedented surge of public statements regarding 
Armenia's EU policy by Armenian politicians.  MFA 
officials welcomed the announcement with the 
traditional pro-Europe talking points but added 
stronger language asserting Armenia's position as 
forerunner for eventual EU membership.  FM Vartan 
Oskanian's statement following the visit of EU 
Special Representative Heikki Talvitie linked the EU 
initiative to the successful lobbying efforts by 
President Robert Kocharian during his December visit 
to Brussels.  Comment:  The unusually aggressive 
tone of the MFA statements appeared to be a face- 
saving measure after Javier Solana and EU leaders 
did not visit Yerevan while in the region for the 
inauguration of Georgian President Saakashvili.  End 
comment. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Even politicians not normally vocal 
regarding European integration entered the fray in 
late January.  Pro-government newspaper Golos 
Armenii, normally neutral on matters related to 
Europe, praised the statement as "basically a 
declaration of quasi-EU-membership."  Opposition 
leaders took a different approach.  They used the 
opportunity to criticize the GOAM for "sluggishness" 
in adopting new laws and Council of Europe 
commitments.  Dashnaksutiun (ARF) newspapers carried 
editorials ranging from skeptical to mildly 
enthusiastic about Armenia's possible role in an 
expanded Europe.  Some ARF leaders remarked that 
GOAM efforts toward European integration must not 
"water down" the government's approach to the 
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict or relations with Turkey. 
ARF member and National Assembly Foreign Relations 
Committee Chair Armen Rustamian's comments were more 
optimistic.  He took advantage of the debate to 
credit traditional Armenian allies such as Greece 
and France with championing Armenia's cause as a 
potential European partner. 
 
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EU SPECIAL REP ON WIDER EUROPE, GEORGIA 
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¶5. (SBU) EU Special Representative for the South 
Caucasus Heikki Talvitie told us during a January 29 
meeting with the Ambassador that he was cautiously 
optimistic about the role of countries like Armenia 
in the Wider Europe initiative.  He said that GOAM 
leaders had been receptive to his visit and 
generally realistic about the implications of the 
"Wider Europe" initiative.  He commented, however, 
that maintaining a perception of parity between the 
three South Caucasus countries was more important 
than ever for his office.  Visits to the region 
henceforth would likely include stops in all three 
capitals in light of government sensitivities or 
perceived favoritism.  He credited recent events in 
Georgia with hastening the EU's warmer approach to 
the region.  He reported, however, that some in the 
EU were taken aback by the Georgian government's 
fervor when hoisting the EU flag as part of 
Saakashvili's inauguration ceremony.  According to 
Talvitie, while technically appropriate (given 
Georgia's membership in the Parliamentary Assembly 
of the Council of Europe), the use of the EU flag 
symbolized the dangers involved with runaway 
expectations regarding EU membership in the 
Caucasus.  He, like every other credible outside 
observer, believes the prospect of EU membership is 
a distant goal, at best. 
 
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COMMENT: USING THE EU AS A LEVER 
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¶6. (SBU) Most of our GOAM interlocutors are quite 
realistic on the prospect of EU membership.  They 
see this prospect as useful over the next few years 
as a principal driver of the economic reform agenda, 
and ensuring that Armenia retains its free market 
orientation.  In addition, they see utility in 
gradually conforming Armenia's reform efforts to EU 
and European standards -- a useful exercise even if 
membership is a distant, even unachievable goal. 
Given that background, it strikes us that this 
public eruption of Euro-enthusiasm could be 
counterproductive if it generates unrealistic 
expectations that cannot be achieved soon -- or 
perhaps ever. 
 
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ECONOMICS ASIDE, A POLITICAL FLIRT WITH THE WEST 
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¶7. (SBU) COMMENT (continued):  The recent flurry of 
political commentary demonstrates that issue of 
closer relations with Europe has matured into a 
permanent domestic political issue in Armenia. 
While it is unclear to what extent political parties 
understand the EU accession process or the 
timeframes involved, they correctly estimate the 
issue's cachet with Armenians at home and abroad. 
In urging Talvitie and the EU to continue to manage 
expectations with the Armenians in order to avoid 
future misunderstandings or disappointment we should 
also urge them to point out the more intangible, 
political benefits of Armenia's current Euro- 
enthusiasm.  With the exception of hard-line 
skeptics who link Euro-friendly policies with 
concessions on N-K or Turkey, it appears that a pro- 
European stance will be de rigueur in Armenian 
politics for the foreseeable future. 
ORDWAY