This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 000552 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR TSHANNON AND CBARTON 
USCINSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2014 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA POLITICAL UPDATE: 2/13/2004 
 
REF: CARACAS 00535 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Acting PolCouns Mark Wells for Reasons 
1.5(b) and (d) 
 
-------- 
SUMMARY: 
-------- 
 
¶1. Carter Center: 
 
-- (U) In a February 13 statement the Carter Center called on 
the National Electoral Council (CNE) to publish a firm 
schedule to finish their verification of signature sheets by 
February 28. 
 
¶2. OAS: 
 
-- (C) OAS observers told poloff that a February 28 deadline 
would most likely be impossible to meet logistically. 
 
¶3. CNE: 
 
-- (U) CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez said February 12 that the 
CNE's Superior Technical Committee (CTS) will be increased 
from 39 to 78 members to accelerate the review of the 
signature forms. 
 
-- (C) OAS observer Marcelo Alvarez told poloff February 13 
that the CNE's computer check of the signature sheets has 
begun.  The CTS expects to receive instructions on February 
¶16. 
 
-- (C) Amado Dounia, an opposition statistics manager, told 
poloff February 13 that the new review of signature forms 
does not bode well for the chances of a getting a recall 
referendum. 
 
¶4. Opposition: 
 
-- (C) Salas Romer called Ambassador February 13 to say he 
tried call off the February 14 march without success. 
Romer's people will not participate. 
 
-- (C) Various opposition leaders were threatened, pushed, 
and otherwise deterred from entering the area when approached 
the CNE headquarters on February 13. 
 
-- (C) DCC operative Amado Dounia told poloff February 13 
that Enrique Naime, chief CNE monitor for the DCC, has 
received a death threat against his 17-year-old daughter if 
he continues his work at the CNE. 
 
-- (U) Television coverage showing pro-Chavez activists 
pushing and ripping the clothes of opposition leaders was 
interrupted on February 13 by a "cadena" broadcast by Chavez, 
in which the GoV instituted a mandatory broadcast on all 
media outlets. 
 
-- (U) Enrique Naime, spokesman for the broad opposition 
Democratic Coordinating Committee (DCC) said February 13 the 
opposition would continue to protest until the CNE declared a 
recall referendum and published norms for its decisions. 
 
-- (C) Opposition deputy Leopoldo Martinez told poloff 
February 13 that he doubted the success of the February 14 
march due to fears of violence. 
 
¶5. Violent Protests: 
 
(U) Various opposition street protests broke out on the 
evening of February 12 in cities across the country in the 
wake of the CNE's announcement postponing a decision to 
schedule a recall referendum. 
 
¶6. GoV: 
 
-- (U) Vice-President Rangel dismissed the February 12 
demonstrations as staged events, perpetrated by the 
opposition-controlled media. 
 
 
-- (U) The Avila Heliport, the principal launching site for 
helicopters run by private media organizations in Caracas, 
was ordered closed February 14 by the GoV's Ministry of 
Infrastructure. 
 
End Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Carter Center Calls on CNE to Finish the Count 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶7. (U) In a February 13 statement issued after a meeting with 
officials of the National Electoral Council (CNE), Carter 
Center representative Fernando Jaramillo and Jennifer McCoy 
called on the CNE to publish a firm schedule of events 
through which they could finish their verification of 
signature sheets no later than February 28.  (Note: a copy of 
the Carter Center statement has been forwarded to WHA/AND). 
The statement reviewed the integral involvement of the OAS 
and Carter Center as observers in the signature collection 
and verification process, and noted "technical obstacles" 
that kept the CNE's Superior Technical Committee (CTS) from 
fully reviewing all the signature forms submitted.  These 
obstacles, the statement said, were due to the immense volume 
of forms referred to the committee and the "new character" of 
the process. 
 
¶8. (U) The statement said the Carter Center and the OAS are 
encouraged that the CNE announced February 12 that it would 
finish the verification process by end of the month, and 
encouraged the CNE to publish the results by that time.  In 
addition, the Carter Center and OAS encouraged the CNE to 
publish a schedule and comply with it, and urged transparency 
in all control mechanisms to guard against fraud. 
 
¶9. (U) Quoting former President Jimmy Carter, the statement 
said the expression of the people must take precedence over 
any legal technicality in counting the signatures.  Lastly, 
the statement said the CNE must be allowed to develop the 
process without political pressures, and urged all parties to 
express their concerns through peaceful means, without 
intimidating the CNE or its facilities. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
OAS Privately Skeptical of New Deadline 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (C) In a February 13 meeting, OAS observer Marcelo 
Alvarez confided to poloff that a February 28 deadline would 
most likely be impossible to meet logistically.  Alvarez said 
that setting another date effectively kicks the ball down the 
field, taking pressure off this weekend. 
 
---------------------------------- 
CNE Director Hints at New Schedule 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (U) When he arrived for a February 13 meeting with OAS 
and Carter Center representatives, CNE Director Jorge 
Rodriguez told the media that the signature results woudl be 
know by the end of the month.  Rodriguez also said security 
had been reinforced around the CNE building.  Additionally, 
Rodriguez announced on February 12 that the CNE's Superior 
Technical Committee (CTS) will be increased from 39 to 78 
members to accelerate the review of the signature forms. 
 
¶12. (C) OAS observer Julio Alvarez told poloff February 13 
that the CNE's computer check of the signature sheets has 
begun.  The CTS expects to receive instructions on February 
¶16.  They have not yet implemented the quality control step, 
in which a CNE supervisor reviews signatures that do not 
match the electoral registry.  Alvarez estimates it will take 
ten days per drive to perform the quality control step, but 
could be shortened by adding more staff.  The results of that 
step must be re-submitted for transcription to fix any error. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
Opposition Leaders Abused, Chavez Blocks Broadcast 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶13. (C) Pro-Chavez activists ("chavistas") in battle dress 
camping out in front of the CNE building make good on their 
pledge to physically keep the opposition away from the CNE. 
As various opposition leaders approached the CNE headquarters 
on February 13, they were threatened, pushed, and otherwise 
ejected from the area.  National Assembly deputy Leopoldo 
Martinez (Causa R) told poloff February 13 that deputy Andres 
Velazquez was threatened by a man who pointed a pistol at his 
head when he tried to get near the CNE building.  According 
to Martinez, nearby National Guard troops refused to protect 
Velasquez, and instead told him to go away before more 
trouble erupts. 
 
¶14. (C) Threats are not limited to oppositon leaders 
approaching the CNE building. DCC operative Amado Dounia told 
poloff February 13 that Enrique Naime, a long-time Copei 
activists and chief CNE monitor for the DCC, has received a 
death threat against his 17-year-old daughter if he continues 
his work at the CNE. 
 
¶15. (U) Private television coverage showing crowds of 
pro-Chavez activists pushing and ripping the clothes of 
opposition leaders was interrupted on the afternoon of 
February 13 by a "cadena" broadcast by Chavez, in which the 
GoV instituted a mandatory broadcast on all media outlets. 
Chavez showed samples of the opposition's alleged 
"megafraud," drawn from copies of signature forms. 
 
---------------------------------- 
Opposition Figures Not Encouraging 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶16. (C) Regardless of the deadline, Amado Dounia, a 
statistics manager for the DCC, told poloff February 13 that 
the new review of signature forms does not bode well for the 
chances of a getting a recall referendum.  With 93,000 forms 
currently in the CTS, Dounia calculates that, assuming a 
successful review rate of 25 percent, they could still 
trigger the referendum.  If 180,000-200,000 forms goes to the 
CTS for review via the new physical inspection, Dounia said 
the referendum will be lost.  All depends on how many 
criteria the CNE decides to apply, he concluded. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
Opposition Defiant; Nervously Planning March 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶17. (U) Enrique Naime, spokesman for the broad opposition 
Democratic Coordinating Committee (DCC) told the press early 
February 13 that the opposition would continue to protest 
until the CNE declared a recall referendum, scheduled an 
election, and published norms for its decisions.  Naime noted 
that the GoV was making the most noise because they "have 
defeat painted on their face." 
 
¶18. (C) During a February 13 meeting with poloff, Lisette 
Behrens, legal adviser of the Democratic Coordinating 
Committee (DCC), said the DCC is still planning to press 
their march on February 14 to protest the continued shift in 
the CNE's verification rules.  Behrens expects over 600,000 
demonstrators.  Behrens said she and other DCC leaders met 
February 12 with officials of the Ministry of Interior and 
Justice to discuss security for the march.  The ministry 
officials not only refused to guarantee security, but also 
tried to convince the opposition to send the marchers to 
other areas the opposition regards as unsafe or too small for 
their numbers.  The GOV has already made the most direct 
route to the CNE difficult by scheduling a meat market on the 
same route.  To avoid attacks, opposition leaders plan to 
decided the actual march route on the night of February 13. 
Behrens said opposition marchers have been instructed not to 
carry weapons of any sort, to deny Chavez the ability to 
blame them for any outbreaks of violence.  Behrens spoke with 
concern about the Democratic Bloc, a small opposition fringe 
group who does not believe in the referendum. 
 
¶19. (C) Opposition National Assembly deputy Leopoldo Martinez 
 
is less sure.  Martinez told poloff February 13 that he 
doubted the success of the February 14 march.  People might 
go to Plaza Venezuela to get their signature, but not toward 
the CNE for fear of violence.  He said the Avenida Bolivar 
meat market spoils their plans.  Alternate routes are also 
dangerous and all empty out at Plaza Caracas, where 
pro-Chavez activists are waiting. 
 
------------------------------ 
Sporadic Protests Turn Violent 
------------------------------ 
 
¶20. (U) Various opposition street protests broke out on the 
evening of February 12 in cities across the country in the 
wake of the announcement of the National Electoral Council 
(CNE) to postpone a decision to schedule a recall referendum 
on the rule of President Hugo Chavez (reftel).  Several 
protests were directed specifically against regional offices 
of the CNE.  A national student coordinating group is 
apparently organizing protests against the CNE, with protests 
fueled by student groups launched in Anzoategui, Trujillo, 
Merida and Valencia.  In some cases, confrontations between 
protesters and security forces turned violent.  In Merida, a 
protest near the University of Los Andes sparked 
confrontations with local police that shut down businesses 
and blocked traffic throughout the day.  A truce was reached 
between student leaders and police late in the afternoon, but 
street violence erupted again by the evening, eventually 
broken up by police with tear gas and rubber pellets. 
Twenty-five protesters were reported injured, among them a 
journalist.  In Valencia, protesters near the Technical 
University confronted police in response to the arrest of 
eight student leaders.  Several buses were set ablaze and 
university buildings were ransacked over the course of the 
evening. 
 
¶21. (U) Unrest broke out in several state capitals February 
12, resulting in injuries and detentions, but no deaths.  The 
most heated protest occurred in Merida, where three student 
demonstrators and one press photographer, Victor Serra, were 
injured by rubber bullets or tear gas.  In Valencia, Carabobo 
state, students briefly held hostages and seized two 
vehicles.  A standoff between opposition and GOV supporters 
in Anzoategui state occurred outside the local CNE branch 
office.  GOV supporters also allegedly attacked the Social 
Christian (COPEI) headquarters in Aragua state. 
 
¶22. (U) The original purpose for most of the marches was to 
celebrate the Day of Youth, when students joined in a battle 
against colonial Spain.  Some students were protesting arrest 
of student leaders accused of rebellion for the evenets in 
April 2002.  However, the marches took on political 
significance following the CNE's decision to review signature 
forms.  A majority of the demonstrators were students, joined 
by political parties and civic groups. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
GoV Denies Violent Demonstrations Took Place 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶23. (U) Vice-President Rangel dismissed the February 12 
demonstrations as staged events, perpetrated by the 
opposition-controlled media.  He claimed the opposition was 
panicking because it realizes it doesn't have enough 
signatures to convoke a presidential recall referendum. 
 
-------------------------- 
GoV Orders Heliport Closed 
-------------------------- 
 
¶24. (U) The Avila Heliport, the principal launching site for 
helicopters run by private media organizations in Caracas, 
was ordered closed February 14 by the GoV's Ministry of 
Infrastructure.  The last time the GoV closed the heliport 
was during the opposition's exercise to collect signatures 
seeking a recall referendum. 
SHAPIRO 
 
 
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      2004CARACA00552 - CONFIDENTIAL