This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000503 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR TSHANNON AND CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2014 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA POLITICAL UPDATE: 2/11/2004 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR CHARLES S. SHAPIRO FOR REASONS 
1.5(B) AND (D) 
 
-------- 
SUMMARY: 
-------- 
 
¶1. CNE: 
 
-- (C) CARTER CENTER REPRESENTATIVE FRANCISCO DIEZ TOLD THE 
AMBASSADOR THAT THE NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL (CNE) NOW 
CLAIMS THAT THERE ARE ONLY 3,000 SIGNATURE FORMS (OR 30,000 
SIGNATURES) THAT ARE BEING QUESTIONED, A SIGNIFICANT 
DOWN-GRADE FROM THE 65,000 FORMS (OR 650,000 SIGNATURES) 
DESCRIBED ON FEBRUARY 10. 
 
-- (U) CNE ANNOUNCED IT WILL INVOKE A 5-DAY PERIOD DURING 
WHICH VOTERS COULD PERSONALLY VERIFY THEIR NAMES. 
 
¶2. OPPOSITION: 
 
-- (U) THE OPPOSITION NGO SUMATE WILL PROVIDE DEMONSTRATORS 
WITH A COPY OF THEIR INDIVIDUAL SIGNATURE TO MARCH TO CNE 
HEADQUARTERS FEBRUARY 14. 
 
-- (U) THE OPPOSITION DEMOCRATIC COORDINATING COMMITTEE (DCC) 
    NOW PLANS TO HAVE A SMALLER MARCH TO THE CNE ON FEBRUARY 13, 
COMPOSED OF A SMALL CADRE OF OPPOSITION LEADERS, TO PUBLICLY 
DEMAND A RESPONSE ON THE REFERENDUM. 
 
¶3. GOV: 
 
-- (U) PRO-CHAVEZ ACTIVIST LINA RON AND A BAND OF BOLIVARIAN 
CIRCLE MEMBERS HAVE ESTABLISHED CAMPS ON THE GROUNDS OF THE 
CNE BUILDING, AND PLEDGE TO PROTECT" THE CNE FROM ANY 
OPPOSITION INVASION. 
 
-- (U) THE GOV IS ALSO SPONSORING A YOUTH MARCH FR FEBRUARY 
11 THROUGH 13, CREATING WHAT THE OPPOSTION SAYS IS COVER TO 
BUS IN HUNDREDS OF PRO-CHAEZ TOUGHS TO INTIMIDATE OR ATTACK 
OPPOSITION ARCHERS. 
 
-- (C) EXILED CTV LABOR LEADER CARLOS RTEGA CLAIMED THE GOV 
PLANS TO USE THE OPPOSITIO MARCHES ON APRIL 13 AND 14 AS AN 
PRETEXT TO LAUNH A SELF COUP, IN WHICH THE PRESIDENT WOULD 
DECLRE MARSHAL LAW, SUSPEND THE CONSTITUTION, AND ARRET OR 
OTHERWISE REMOVE ALL OPPOSITION LEADERS.  CV LEADER MAUAL 
COVA TOLD DCM ON FEBRUARY 11 THATHE DID NOT BELEIVE ORTEGA'S 
CLAIMS WERE ACCURATE. 
 
-- (U) POLITICAL ALLIES OF THE PRESIDENT HAVE GNE PUBLIC 
WITH ALLEGATIONS OF COUP-PLOTTING AND ARN OF 
OPPOSITION-INSTIGATED VIOLENCE. 
 
-- (C) CHAVEZ AND HIS SUPPORTERS CONTINUE TO ALLEGE USG 
COLLUSION WITH HIS OPPONENTS. 
 
    END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
CNE: NEW CONFUSION ON NUMBER OF QUESTIONABLE FORMS 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶4. (C) CARTER CENTER REPRESENTATIVE FRANCISCO DIEZ TOLD THE 
AMBASSADOR THAT DURING A MORNING MEETING WITH CNE DIRECTORS 
EZEQUIEL ZAMORA (OPPOSITION) AND JORGE RODRIGUEZ (PRO-GOV) ON 
FEBRUARY 11, THEY ASSURED HIM THEY WERE AWARE OF THE SERIOUS 
ISSUE OF WHOLESALE INVALIDATION OF SIGNATURES.  DIEZ SAID THE 
CNE NOW CLAIMS THAT THERE ARE ONLY 3,000 SIGNATURE FORMS (OR 
30,000 SIGNATURES) THAT ARE BEING QUESTIONED, A SIGNIFICANT 
DOWN-GRADE FROM THE 65,000 FORMS (OR 650,000 SIGNATURES) 
DESCRIBED ON FEBRUARY 10.  ZAMORA AND RODRIGUEZ AGREED THAT 
THE CARTER CENTER WOULD PRESENT SOME TECHNICAL ALTERNATIVES 
TO THE CNE FOR DEALING WITH THE ISSUE. 
 
¶5. (U) CNE PRESIDENT OSCAR BATTAGLINI ANNOUNCED LATER 
FEBRUARY 11 THAT THE SIGNATURE FORMS FILLED OUT IN THE SAME 
HANDWRITING (THE SO-CALLED "PLANILLAS PLANAS," EE REFTEL) 
WOULD NOT BE NULLIFIED.  INSTEAD, BATAGLINI SUGGESTED THAT 
THE CNE WILL PUBLISH A LIST OF QUESTIONABLE SIGNATRES AND 
 
CARACAS 00000503  001.2 OF 002 
 
------ 
 
¶1. CNE: 
 
-- (C) CARTER CENTER REPRESENTATIVE FRANCISCO DIEZ TOLD THE 
AMBASSADOR THAT THE NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL (CNE) NOW 
CLAIMS THAT THERE ARE ONLY 3,000 SIGNATURE FORMS (OR 30,000 
SIGNATURES) THAT ARE BEING QUESTIONED, A SIGNIFICANT 
DOWN-GRADE FROM THE 65,000 FORMS (OR 650,000 SIGNATURES) 
DESCRIBED ON FEBRUARY 10. 
 
-- (U) CNE ANNOUNCED IT WILL INVOKE A 5-DAY PERIOD DURING 
WHICH VOTERS COULD PERSONALLY VERIFY THEIR NAMES. 
 
¶2. OPPOSITION: 
 
-- (U) THE OPPOSITION NGO SUMATE WILL PROVIDE DEMONSTRATORS 
WITH A COPY OF THEIR INDIVIDUAL SIGNATURE TO MARCH TO CNE 
    HEADQUARTERS FEBRUARY 14. 
 
-- (U) THE OPPOSITION DEMOCRATIC COORDINATING COMMITTEE (DCC) 
NOW PLANS TO HAVE A SMALLER MARCH TO THE CNE ON FEBRUARY 13, 
COMPOSED OF A SMALL CADRE OF OPPOSITION LEADERS, TO PUBLICLY 
DEMAND A RESPONSE ON THE REFERENDUM. 
 
¶3. GOV: 
 
-- (U) PRO-CHAVEZ ACTIVIST LINA RON AND A BAND OF BOLIVARIAN 
CIRCLE MEMBERS HAVE ESTABLISHED CAMPS ON THE GROUNDS OF THE 
CNE BUILDING, AND PLEDGE TO "PROTECT" THE CNE FROM ANY 
OPPOSITION INVASION. 
 
-- (U) THE GOV IS ALSO SPONSORING A YOUTH MARCH FOR FEBRUARY 
11 THROUGH 13, CREATING WHAT THE OPPOSITION SAYS IS COVER TO 
BUS IN HUNDREDS OF PRO-CHAVEZ TOUGHS TO INTIMIDATE OR ATTACK 
OPPOSITION MARCHERS. 
 
-- (C) EXILED CTV LABOR LEADER CARLOS ORTEGA CLAIMED THE GOV 
PLANS TO USE THE OPPOSITION MARCHES ON APRIL 13 AND 14 AS AN 
PRETEXT TO LAUNCH A SELF COUP, IN WHICH THE PRESIDENT WOULD 
DECLARE MARSHAL LAW, SUSPEND THE CONSTITUTION, AND ARREST OR 
OTHERWISE REMOVE ALL OPPOSITION LEADERS.  CTV LEADER MAUAL 
COVA TOLD DCM ON FEBRUARY 11 THAT HE DID NOT BELEIVE ORTEGA'S 
CLAIMS WERE ACCURATE. 
 
-- (U) POLITICAL ALLIES OF THE PRESIDENT HAVE GONE PUBLIC 
WITH ALLEGATIONS OF COUP-PLOTTING AND WARN OF 
OPPOSITION-INSTIGATED VIOLENCE. 
 
    -- (C) CHAVEZ AND HIS SUPPORTERS CONTINUE TO ALLEGE USG 
COLLUSION WITH HIS OPPONENTS. 
 
END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
CNE: NEW CONFUSION ON NUMBER OF QUESTIONABLE FORMS 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶4. (C) CARTER CENTER REPRESENTATIVE FRANCISCO DIEZ TOLD THE 
AMBASSADOR THAT DURING A MORNING MEETING WITH CNE DIRECTORS 
EZEQUIEL ZAMORA (OPPOSITION) AND JORGE RODRIGUEZ (PRO-GOV) ON 
FEBRUARY 11, THEY ASSURED HIM THEY WERE AWARE OF THE SERIOUS 
ISSUE OF WHOLESALE INVALIDATION OF SIGNATURES.  DIEZ SAID THE 
CNE NOW CLAIMS THAT THERE ARE ONLY 3,000 SIGNATURE FORMS (OR 
30,000 SIGNATURES) THAT ARE BEING QUESTIONED, A SIGNIFICANT 
DOWN-GRADE FROM THE 65,000 FORMS (OR 650,000 SIGNATURES) 
DESCRIBED ON FEBRUARY 10.  ZAMORA AND RODRIGUEZ AGREED THAT 
THE CARTER CENTER WOULD PRESENT SOME TECHNICAL ALTERNATIVES 
TO THE CNE FOR DEALING WITH THE ISSUE. 
 
¶5. (U) CNE PRESIDENT OSCAR BATTAGLINI ANNOUNCED LATER 
FEBRUARY 11 THAT THE SIGNATURE FORMS FILLED OUT IN THE SAME 
HANDWRITING (THE SO-CALLED "PLANILLAS PLANAS," SEE REFTEL) 
WOULD NOT BE NULLIFIED.  INSTEAD, BATTAGLINI SUGGESTED THAT 
THE CNE WILL PUBLISH A LIST OF QUESTIONABLE SIGNATURES AND 
 
CARACAS 00000503  002 OF 002 
 
RSON TO A CNE OFFICE. 
 
--------------- 
MARCHING ORDERS 
--------------- 
 
¶6. (C) THE OPPOSITION HAS ANNOUNCED SEVERAL PUBLIC EVENTS 
DESIGNED TO DRAW ATTENTION TO THE CNE'S EXPECTED FAILURE TO 
CERTIFY SUFFICIENT SIGNATURES TO SCHEDULE A PRESIDENTIAL 
RECALL REFERENDUM BY THE POLITICALLY SYMBOLIC FEBUARY 13 
DEADLINE. ENRIQUE MENDOZA ANNOUNCED THATTHE OPPOSITION IS 
PLANNING A MARCH ON THE NATIONL ELECTORAL COUNCIL (CNE) 
BUILDING ON SATURDAY FBRUARY 14.  SUMATE, THE OPPOSITION NGO 
THAT MAINAINS DIGITIZED COPIES OF OPPOSITION SIGNATURE 
SHETS, TOLD POLOFF THAT THEY WILL HAVE TWO THOUSAND 
VOLUNTEERS ARRAYED AT A RALLYING POINT NEAR PLAZA ENEZUELA 
IN THE CAPITAL WITH PRINTED COPIES OF TE SIGNATURES. 
DEMONSTRATORS WILL RECEIVE A PRINTD PHOTOCOPY OF THEIR 
INDIVIDUAL SIGNATURE LINE T CARRY IN A MARCH TO THE CNE 
HEADQUARTERS. 
 
¶7. C) OPPOSITION SOURCES HAVE TOLD POLOFFS THAT SEVERL 
LEADERS IN THE BROAD OPPOSITION DEMOCRATIC COODINATING 
COMMITTEE (DCC) HAD HOPED TO HAVE A MASIVE DEMONSTRATION ON 
FEBRUARY 13 TO MARK THE 30-AY DEADLINE FOR A DECISION ON A 
    REFERENDUM FROM TE CNE, BUT SUMATE LEADERS PREFERRED TO 
MOBILIZE HEIR VOLUNTEERS ON FEBRUARY 14 FOR TECHNICAL 
REASONS.  THE DCC NOW PLANS TO HAVE A SMALLER MARCH TOTHE 
CNE ON FEBRUARY 13, COMPOSED OF A SMALL CADR OF OPPOSITION 
LEADERS, TO PUBLICLY DEMAND A RESPNSE ON THE REFERENDUM. 
 
¶8. (C) THE GOV AND ITS SPPORTERS ARE PLANNING TO COUNTER THE 
OPPOSITION ARCHES WITH DEMONSTRATIONS OF THEIR OWN. 
PRO-CHAEZ ACTIVIST LINQ%QQH,ING AND WARN OF OPPOSITION-INSTIGATED IOLENCE. 
 
CTV LEADER MANUEL COVA TOLD DCM ON FEBRARY 11 THAT ORTEGA 
HAD NOTHING TO BACK UP THESE LLEGATIONS, AND THAT HE SIS NOT 
BELIEVE TEH GOV AD A SHORT-TERM PLAN FOR AN AUTOGOLPE.  JUAN 
BARETO, A NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DEPUTY FROM THE CHAVISTA-ALIED 
BLOC FOR CHANGE (BLOQUE DE CAMBIO) PARTY ANOUNCED ON 
FEBRUARY 10 HE HAD INFORMATION OF AN OPOSITION PLOT TO 
INCITE VIOLENCE TO COVER THEIR PLANNED COUP D'ETAT.  ISMAEL 
GARCIA, A NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DEPUTY FROM THE PRO-CHAVEZ 
PODEMOS PARTY, ALLEGED THE OPPOSITION MARCH WOULD PROCEED TO 
THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE IN MIRAFLORES, HOPING TO INITIATE A 
REPEAT OF THE EVENTS OF APRIL 2001. 
 
¶9. (C) CHAVEZ AND HIS SUPPORTERS CONTINUE TO ALLEGE USG 
COLLUSION WITH HIS OPPONENTS.  THE OFFICIAL GOV TELEVISION 
STATION RAN A STORY ON FEBRUARY 10, 2004 ALLEGING THAT MARIA 
CORINA MACHADO, A DIRECTOR OF OPPOSITION NGO SUMATE, HAS 
RECEIVED MONEY FROM THE USG.  THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF 
CHAVEZ'S FEBRUARY 9 TELEVISED REMARKS IN WHICH HE ACCUSED THE 
USG OF FUNDING OPPOSITION FORCES BENT ON HIS REMOVAL 
(SEPTEL). 
SHAPIRO 

 
NOTE: SVC FOR GRABLED TEXT SECTION 02 OF 02 
 
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