This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002412 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER, D. TEITELBAUM 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2013 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ASEC ZI MDC
SUBJECT: MDC MEMBERSHIP DESPONDENT AT PERCEIVED LACK OF 
LEADERSHIP 
 
REF: A. HARARE 2313 
     ¶B. HARARE 2332 
     ¶C. HARARE 2179 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Various MDC Officials have commented that 
there is increasing despondency and frustration within the 
party rank and file.  The MDC is planning mass action for 
early in the New Year, but much homework remains undone, and 
with an increasingly resigned public, it is unclear whether 
people will be motivated to follow leaders tomorrow whom they 
feel have failed them today.  End Summary. 
 
Suspended Mayor Wants Party Support 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) On November 26, Judge Moses Chinhengo issued a 
decision upholding the suspension of Harare Mayor Elias 
Mudzuri.  On December 2 Minister of Local Government Ignatius 
Chombo sent reportedly identical letters to six suspended MDC 
Harare City councilors notifying them that they were fired. 
Over lunch with the Ambassador on December 3 the Mayor 
complained that the MDC leadership failed to make a public 
statements condemning the firings of MDC councilors and the 
continued suspension of the Mayor.  Mudzuri also complained 
the party had failed to compel councilors to make decisions 
in council, which had previously been agreed to at 
caucus--except to request their resignations.  While he did 
not specify, the Mayor was likely referring to decisions such 
as the one to withdraw the Mayor's salary and other benefits; 
the failure to object to the reinstatement of Town Clerk 
Chideya (Ref C); and the failure to object to the suspensions 
and firings of the six councilors.  Mudzuri complained that 
the rank and file were asking for leadership and the party 
was not delivering. 
 
Acting Mayor Refuses to Resign 
------------------------------ 
 
¶3.  (C) Dennis Murira, Special Assistant to the MDC Party 
Chairman, said that the commission of inquiry set up to 
investigate the actions of MDC Harare City Councilors who 
were not toeing the party line (Ref C) interviewed the 
wayward councilors and the Acting Mayor and issued a report 
to the party leadership in late November.  The commission 
recommended that the leadership request that the councilors 
in question resign, and that the party reprimand them.  The 
MDC followed through and in late November requested that 
Acting Mayor Sekesai Makwavarara and six councilors resign by 
December 1.  All complied except Makwavarara.  Although news 
reports suggested that the MDC might expel Makwavarara from 
the party, Murira said that would be futile, that Makwavarara 
would join the ruling party immediately.  Instead the MDC 
would likely let her serve out her term before expelling her. 
 
Minister Bent on Ruining Mayor 
------------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (C) Over lunch with the Ambassador and DCM on December 
11, MDC Secretary General Welshman Ncube and Spokesman Paul 
Themba Nyathi said that MDC Councilor Christopher Mushonga is 
from the Zezuru clan of the Shona, as is Minister of Local 
Government Ignatius Chombo.  Although the two are from 
different political parties, the MDC officials said this 
common ethnic background has provided a basis for Mushonga 
and Chombo to at least communicate.  Mushonga, until the 
recent MDC disciplinary action, led a group of MDC councilors 
who complied with directions from the Minister (Ref C).  The 
MDC officials said that in contrast Mudzuri is from the 
Karanga subgroup and Chombo is committed to ruining him. 
Chombo would be satisfied to leave the rest of the City 
Council alone--he is after Mudzuri with the investigating 
commission and he intends to finish him off politically. 
 
¶5.  (C) Nyathi and Ncube said that the Acting Mayor has sold 
out and even refuses to take phone calls from the MDC 
leadership.  It was an inexperienced council, and Chombo has 
played his hand perfectly by identifying councilors who are 
soft and influencing them.  The MDC officials agreed that 
requesting the council to resign en masse would likely result 
in solid MDC councilors resigning, and weak ones prone to 
yielding to ZANU-PF blandishments retaining their posts - a 
worst case scenario for the party. 
 
Party in Disarray in Kadoma 
--------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) Losing MDC candidate for the Kadoma Central 
parliamentary by-election, Charles Mupandawana reiterated his 
complaint (Ref B) to poloff on December 3 that a lack of 
support from the party was a critical factor in his loss. 
Mupandawana said that his campaign team budgeted a need for 
Z$8 million (US$1,350) per week for the last three weeks of 
his campaign, but instead received Z$8 million total.  He 
also said they had requested five vehicles, but had only 
received four, of which two were in reliable working order. 
By comparison, Mupandawana said that the MDC sent 20 vehicles 
for use during the October 2002 by-election in Insiza. 
Mupandawana said that no one from the MDC Information or 
Legal Departments came to assist him in with publicity and 
legal representation for detainees respectively.  While MDC 
President Morgan Tsvangirai did visit once and address a 
gathering, Mupandawana said that paled in comparison to 
ZANU-PF Ministers Elliott Manyika and Ignatius Chombo, as 
well as MP Philip Chiyangwa's regular visits to Kadoma in 
support of the ZANU-PF candidate. 
 
¶7.  (C) Nyathi and Ncube said that party structures in Kadoma 
have been in disarray for some time.  They described a 
conflict between factions which went unresolved through the 
recent by-election.  According to the MDC officials this 
conflict was the major reason the MDC lost the election.  In 
contrast to Mupandawana's statements, the MDC officials said 
the MDC had indeed sent Z$8 million per week during the last 
three weeks of the campaign. 
 
Even Parliamentarians Get the Blues 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) Miles Toder, Director of the State University of New 
York's Institutional Strengthening of Parliament Programs 
here said recently that over the past couple months he has 
sensed despondency and frustration among MDC parliamentarians 
who feel that participating in Parliament has effected no 
political change.  Many MDC parliamentarians have in recent 
months spent increasing time with their law firms, import 
businesses, and retail stores primarily because they need the 
money and they feel they are achieving nothing in Parliament. 
 Toder said MPs are facing stiff competition for the 
nominations for their own seats and are subsequently 
concerned about bolstering their campaign coffers.  Toder 
said he expects significant turnover among MPs at the next 
parliamentary elections as each party attempts to spread the 
patronage of being a parliamentarian to other party members. 
 
GOZ Gearing up for Early Parliamentary Elections? 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶9.  (C) Toder also said there was evidence that the GOZ may 
be gearing up for early parliamentary elections.  The GOZ is 
currently aggressively pursuing an amendment to the 
Citizenship Act that would enfranchise longtime residents of 
Zimbabwe from neighboring countries with the right to vote. 
He suspects this effort is directed at ex-commercial 
farmworkers, many of whom are originally from neighboring 
countries.  Mike Murray of Justice for Agriculture, also 
views ex-farmworkers as a persuadable swing vote. 
Mupandawana said that he suspected food was used to buy votes 
in resettled areas in Kadoma.  Wishing he'd had some to dole 
out, Mupandawana said in this environment a little food can 
easily buy votes even among people like ex-farmworkers who 
have lost their livelihoods due to ZANU-PF policies.  Toder 
said ZANU-PF had resurrected reform of the Electoral Act to 
address SADC norms, but also to resolve technical problems 
that would help the ruling party maintain control of the 
electoral process.  He said moves were underway to open the 
registration rolls to new party members, and also to re-draw 
constituency lines especially in urban areas by joining them 
with nearby resettled areas to dilute the MDC's urban 
strength.  Toder said the reputation of government was to 
leave things until the last moment and these early 
preparations could indicate planning to dissolve parliament 
and call early elections, which the President could legally 
do. 
 
MDC to Gain Religion 
-------------------- 
 
¶10.  (C) Murira, who is also a leading member of a core group 
of MDC officials charged with planning mass action, said on 
December 11, that he sensed despondency among the MDC rank 
and file.  He said this was in response to the MDC leadership 
pursuing talks that the rank and file feared would lead to 
ZANU-PF swallowing the MDC.  MDC members also perceived the 
MDC leadership to be doing nothing to resolve the crises 
 
¶11.  (C) Murira said that in response to calls that the 
leadership do something, the main strategy for mass action 
early in the New Year (Ref A) was for MDC activists to hold 
prayer vigils in high-density areas around Harare.  Basically 
the theory being that the GOZ might be able to suppress an 
opposition party, but it would be more difficult for it and 
security personnel on the ground to suppress people under the 
auspices of the church.  Murira said the MDC was talking to 
the Bishops troika and other prominent clergy to get them to 
declare the talks initiative dead, and to get their blessing 
for MDC activists to hold prayer vigils as members of their 
churches.  Murira said that after several nights of vigils, 
the MDC (via church leaders) would then hold a large vigil at 
a venue in the center of Harare as a pretext to calling a 
major march immediately thereafter. 
 
Comment: 
-------- 
 
¶12.  (C) With a tacit strategy of lying low, focusing on 
building grassroots party support, and waiting for public 
opinion to fully realize that the GOZ has scuttled talks, the 
MDC has been largely invisible in the past few months.  In 
the absence of the Daily News the party has also missed 
various opportunities to issue government-critical press 
statements, for firing MDC councilors, for 
government-sponsored intimidation during the Kadoma 
by-election and for continued GOZ mismanagement of the 
economy.  With its lowered profile, the party seems to have 
created the perception that it is doing nothing to resolve 
the political and economic crises.  While the idea of 
organizing events under the rubric of the church is novel, 
with the government controlling the daily media the GOZ could 
easily crack down on the prayer vigils and claim that the MDC 
abused the church to hold political gatherings.  Even if the 
MDC fully developed this strategy, and got church officials 
on board, it remains unclear whether an increasingly resigned 
public would heed the call to gather in protest.  Plagued by 
a lack of resources and facing the many obstacles placed in 
its way, the MDC has been hard pressed to mount effective 
opposition to an increasingly repressive regime.  As it 
prepares itself for the crucial 2005 parliamentary elections, 
the MDC will need to focus its energies and training on 
allocating scant resources, executing planning, generating 
internal consensus, and motivating both its membership and 
the Zimbabwean electorate at large to remain in the game. 
SULLIVAN