This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 001230 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2013 
TAGS: PGOV PREF PHUM PREF PHUM HR HRPGOV
SUBJECT: KEEPING THE HDZ AT ARM'S LENGTH 
 
REF: ZAGREB 519 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: POLOFF A.F.GODFREY FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) THE USG WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD THE HDZ AT ARM'S LENGTH 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  01230  01 OF 02  300952Z 
UNTIL IT HAS DEMONSTRATED -- IN ACTIONS, NOT JUST WORDS -- 
THAT IT WILL SUPPORT POLICIES WHICH ADVANCE OUR STRATEGY FOR 
ACHIEVING STABILITY IN THE REGION.  THAT WAS THE MESSAGE THE 
AMBASSADOR DELIVERED TO HDZ PRESIDENT IVO SANADER OVER LUNCH 
ON MAY 27.  THE HDZ CONTINUES TO TAKE A POSITIVE LINE ON SOME 
TOUGH BILATERAL ISSUES WHERE THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT HAS NOT 
(LIKE IRAQ AND THE ICC), BUT HAS MADE NO PROGRESS TOWARD 
BENCHMARKS SET BY THE AMBASSADOR ON ICTY COOPERATION, REFUGEE 
RETURNS AND INTERNAL PARTY REFORMS.  SANADER SAID HE IS 
"DEEPLY CONVINCED" OF THE VITAL ROLE OF THE U.S. AS THE 
GUARANTOR OF SECURITY IN EUROPE AND PLEDGED THAT STRONG TIES 
WITH THE U.S. WILL BE A TOP PRIORITY SHOULD THE HDZ RETURN TO 
GOVERNMENT AFTER PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS.  HE CLAIMED THAT 
UNTIL THE NEXT PARLIAMENT IS SEATED, HE HAS LITTLE FREEDOM TO 
ACT ON SOME POLITICALLY SENSITIVE ISSUES, BUT PROMISED THAT 
AN HDZ GOVERNMENT (IF ELECTED) WOULD PRODUCE BETTER RESULTS 
ON THESE ISSUES THAN THE CURRENT COALITION.  END SUMMARY. 
 
FOLLOW-UP TO FEBRUARY MEETING 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) ON MAY 27, THE AMBASSADOR MET WITH HDZ PRESIDENT IVO 
SANADER OVER LUNCH TO FOLLOW UP THEIR INITIAL MEETING ON 
FEBRUARY 21 (REFTEL).  WITH SANADER WAS MIOMIR ZUZUL, 
FORMERLY CROATIA'S AMBASSADOR TO THE U.S., WHO PARTICIPATED 
ACTIVELY IN THE DISCUSSION.  AT THEIR FIRST MEETING, SANADER 
HAD EXPRESSED KEEN INTEREST IN DEVELOPING CLOSER TIES WITH 
THE EMBASSY WITH A VIEW TOWARD SHOWING CROATIAN VOTERS -- AND 
POTENTIAL COALITION PARTNERS -- THAT THE HDZ "REFORMS" HAVE 
BEEN RECOGNIZED BY THE USG.  AT THAT SAME MEETING, THE 
AMBASSADOR HAD SET OUT A SERIES OF SPECIFIC ACTIONS THE HDZ 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        ZAGREB  01230  01 OF 02  300952Z 
NEEDED TO TAKE ON ISSUES RELATING TO REGIONAL SECURITY IN 
ORDER TO GET THE U.S. VALIDATION THEY SO AVIDLY SOUGHT. 
 
HDZ'S SOLID SUPPORT ON IRAQ, ARTICLE 98 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) THE AMBASSADOR TOLD SANADER THAT THE USG RECOGNIZES 
THE STRONG SUPPORT THE HDZ HAS GIVEN TO THE U.S. ON TOUGH 
BILATERAL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY ON IRAQ AND MORE RECENTLY IN 
CALLING FOR CROATIAN TO SIGN AN ARTICLE 98 AGREEMENT WITH THE 
U.S.  SANADER SAID HE IS "DEEPLY CONVINCED" THAT THE 
TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONSHIP IS ESSENTIAL TO EUROPEAN SECURITY. 
 HE REGRETS THE CURRENT COALITION'S ACTIONS WHICH HAVE 
DAMAGED THE RELATIONSHIP.  THE HDZ RECOGNIZES THAT CROATIA'S 
FUTURE IS IN EUROPE, BUT THERE SHOULD BE A MORE APPROPRIATE 
BALANCE, RECOGNIZING THE ROLE OF THE USG.  IN AN HDZ 
GOVERNMENT, RELATIONS WITH THE U.S. WILL BE A HIGHER 
PRIORITY, SANADER DECLARED.  HE REJECTED THE ANALYSIS BY MANY 
IN THE MEDIA THAT HE HAS TAKEN PRO-U.S. POSITIONS ONLY TO GET 
OUR APPROVAL FOR THE REFORMS HE IS CARRYING OUT.  THE 
EUROPEAN PEOPLE'S PARTY GAVE THE HDZ THE ONLY "SEAL OF 
APPROVAL" IT NEEDED WHEN IT VOTED TO GRANT THE HDZ OBSERVER 
STATUS IN THE EPP. 
 
AMBASSADOR: NOT ENOUGH PROGRESS ON KEY ISSUES 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) THE AMBASSADOR TOOK NOTE OF THE CHANGES IN THE HDZ IN 
THE PAST THREE YEARS; WITHOUT THEM EVEN THE RECENT LIMITED 
ENGAGEMENT WITH SANADER WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE.  BUT 
THE AMBASSADOR UNDERSCORED THAT THERE HAD BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        ZAGREB  01230  01 OF 02  300952Z 
PROGRESS TOWARD THE BENCHMARKS SET DURING THEIR FIRST 
MEETING.  THE AMBASSADOR REITERATED THE STEPS THE HDZ NEEDS 
TO TAKE BEFORE THE U.S. CAN CONSIDER ENGAGING THE PARTY AS A 
SERIOUS PARTNER. 
 
- INTERNAL REFORMS 
 
PARTY "REFORM" MUST MOVE BEYOND POLITICAL HOUSECLEANING. 
LJUBO CESIC-ROJS, AN OUTRAGEOUS NATIONALIST FIGURE WHO 
CONTINUES TO ACTIVELY DISRUPT INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY EFFORTS 
TOWARD ACHIEVING REGIONAL STABILITY, REMAINS IN THE PARTY, 
EVEN THOUGH SANADER HAD TOLD THE AMBASSADOR IN FEBRUARY THAT 
HE WAS ON THE WAY OUT.  BRANIMIR GLAVAS, THE OSIJEK WARLORD 
SUSPECTED OF INVOLVEMENT IN SEVERAL WAR CRIMES, CONTINUES TO 
HOLD A POSITION OF SERIOUS RESPONSIBILITY IN THE HDZ. 
 
- ICTY COOPERATION 
 
THIS IS NOT A NEGOTIABLE ISSUE.  WE LOOK FOR A PUBLIC 
DECLARATION THAT THE HDZ WILL NOT SEEK TO CHANGE THE ICTY 
COOPERATION LAW IF IT GETS INTO GOVERNMENT, AND THAT THE HDZ 
WILL ABIDE BY THE LAW, PROMPTLY SERVE INDICTMENTS AND MAKE A 
GOOD-FAITH EFFORT TO FIND ICTY INDICTEES. 
 
- REFUGEE RETURN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ4130 
 
PAGE 01        ZAGREB  01230  02 OF 02  300953Z 
ACTION EUR-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   CIAE-00  INL-00   DODE-00  PERC-00 
      SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    FBIE-00  VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00 
      IO-00    L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OIC-02 
      OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00 
      SCT-00   SP-00    IRM-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00 
      DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-01   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00 
        /006W 
                  ------------------6CF374  300953Z /38 
P 300933Z MAY 03 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0359 
INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 001230 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2013 
TAGS: PGOV PREF PHUM PREF PHUM HR HRPGOV
SUBJECT: KEEPING THE HDZ AT ARM'S LENGTH 
 
AS IN FEBRUARY, THE AMBASSADOR TOLD SANADER THAT HE NEEDS TO 
MAKE HIS PARTY POLICY ON THIS ISSUE CLEAR AND THEN PUBLICLY 
CALL FOR HDZ MEMBERS IN RESPONSIBLE POSITIONS TO FOLLOW THIS 
POLICY.  SOME LOCAL-LEVEL HDZ LEADERS ARE ACTIVELY 
OBSTRUCTING RETURN.  SANADER HASN'T TAKEN THIS ISSUE UP.  WE 
WOULD NEED TO SEE A CLEAR AND PUBLIC STATEMENT ON THIS ISSUE 
NOW. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  01230  02 OF 02  300953Z 
 
SANADER: "MY HANDS ARE TIED" 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) AS HE DID IN FEBRUARY, SANADER EXPLAINED THAT HE IS A 
"HOSTAGE TO THE PARTY CAUCUS" IN THE PARLIAMENT, ALL OF WHOM 
WERE SELECTED BEFORE HE WAS ELECTED AS HDZ PRESIDENT AND MANY 
OF WHOM RESIST HIS EFFORTS TO TRANSFORM THE HDZ INTO A 
MAINSTREAM CENTER-RIGHT PARTY.  HE NOW SEEKS CHANGES TO THE 
HDZ BY-LAWS WHICH WILL TRANSFER RESPONSIBILITY FOR 
DETERMINING WHO WILL BE ON PARTY CANDIDATE LISTS FROM THE 
100-MEMBER HDZ "EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE" TO THE 13-MEMBER PARTY 
PRESIDENCY, OVER WHICH HE HAS FIRM CONTROL.  IF HE SUCCEEDS 
IN MAKING THIS CHANGE AT THE JUNE 21 PARTY CONGRESS, HE PLANS 
TO MAKE SWEEPING CHANGES TO THE MEMBERSHIP OF THE PARTY 
CAUCUS, WITH MORE THAN 80 PERCENT "NEW BLOOD" IN THE NEXT 
PARLIAMENT. 
 
¶6.  (C) ON CESIC-ROJS, SANADER AGREED THAT IT IS TIME FOR 
ROJS TO GO, AND PROMISED HE WOULD BE OUT AFTER THE JUNE HDZ 
PARTY CONGRESS.  HE GAVE NO GROUND ON GLAVAS, INSISTING THAT 
AS FAR AS HE IS CONCERNED GLAVAS' ONLY PROBLEM IS ONE OF 
IMAGE; HE HAS NO INFORMATION WHICH HE CONSIDERS CREDIBLE 
IMPLICATING GLAVAS OF ANY WRONGDOING.  HE ADMITTED, HOWEVER, 
THAT GLAVAS' AGGRESSIVE APPROACH IS A LIABILITY FOR THE HDZ. 
SANADER POINTED OUT THAT IF THE CHANGES TO PARTY BY-LAWS HE 
SEEKS ARE APPROVED, THE ROLE OF THE PARTY EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE 
-- OF WHICH GLAVAS IS A MEMBER -- WILL BE REDUCED. 
 
¶7.  (C) ON TAKING A PUBLIC, PROACTIVE STANCE ON ISSUES 
RELATING TO ICTY COOPERATION AND REFUGEE RETURN, SANADER SAID 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        ZAGREB  01230  02 OF 02  300953Z 
THAT UNTIL HE HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE THE MAKEUP OF HIS 
PARLIAMENTARY DELEGATION, HIS HANDS WILL BE TIED.  THE HDZ 
HAS, SANADER ARGUED, TAKEN THE LEAD ON SOME PROGRESSIVE 
POLICIES.  THE GOVERNMENT'S EFFORT TO PASS A NEW 
CONSTITUTIONAL LAW ON NATIONAL MINORITIES (CLNM) WAS 
FOUNDERING IN BITTER ARGUMENTS WITH ETHNIC MINORITY LEADERS 
UNTIL THE HDZ -- SANADER PERSONALLY -- STEPPED IN TO BROKER A 
COMPROMISE.  NOW, CROATIA'S CLNM IS BROADLY PRAISED BY THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.  REMOVING RIVAL IVIC PASALIC FROM A 
POSITION OF POWER DID MORE THAN JUST CLEAN HOUSE IN THE HDZ, 
SANADER CONTINUED; IT ALSO REMOVED A SOURCE OF INAPPROPRIATE 
INFLUENCE OVER THE INTELLIGENCE SERVICES, PAVING THE WAY FOR 
THEIR REFORM. 
 
¶8.  (C) SANADER MADE A STRONG PITCH FOR THE EMBASSY TO BEGIN 
TREATING THE HDZ AS IT DOES OTHER CROATIAN POLITICAL PARTIES, 
INCLUDING ALLOWING IT TO PARTICIPATE IN ONGOING USAID 
ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS AIMED AT BUILDING POLITICAL PARTY 
CAPACITY.  THE AMBASSADOR DID NOT APOLOGIZE FOR SETTING A 
HIGH BAR FOR THE HDZ TO CLEAR, HIGHER THAN OTHER PARTIES, 
BEFORE HE WOULD CONSIDER RECOMMENDING THAT THE USG ENGAGE 
MORE CLOSELY WITH SANADER'S PARTY.  THE HDZ WAS DIRECTLY 
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DESTABILIZING AND COUNTERPRODUCTIVE 
POLICIES OF THE PREVIOUS GOVERNMENT AND WOULD HAVE TO DO MORE 
THAN DISCUSS POLICY CHANGES IN PRIVATE, THE AMBASSADOR 
EXPLAINED.  SANADER SAID HE UNDERSTOOD, REPEATED HIS 
COMMITMENT TO IMPROVING THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP, AND 
DECLARED THAT AN HDZ GOVERNMENT WOULD BE MORE EFFICIENT AND 
WOULD PUT MORE EMPHASIS ON CROATIA'S PROGRESS TOWARD NATO 
MEMBERSHIP.  THE AMBASSADOR TOLD SANADER THAT THE USG WOULD 
RECOGNIZE REAL HDZ REFORM WHENEVER IT CAME -- BEFORE OR AFTER 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        ZAGREB  01230  02 OF 02  300953Z 
ELECTIONS -- AND RESPOND ACCORDINGLY, BUT NOT UNTIL THAT 
REFORM WAS VISIBLE AND CLEAR. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9.  (C) AS HE DID IN FEBRUARY, SANADER STRUCK US AS 
PERSONALLY GENUINE.  DESPITE HIS ASSURANCES ABOUT HIS 
EAGERNESS TO IMPROVE HIS PARTY'S STANDING WITH THE U.S., WE 
DO NOT EXPECT HE WILL MEET THE BENCHMARKS WE SET, AT LEAST 
NOT BEFORE THE NEXT PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION.  WE EXPECT 
SANADER WILL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE THE CHANGES TO PARTY BY-LAWS 
HE OUTLINED TO US DURING THE NEXT PARTY CONVENTION, BUT WE 
RECOGNIZE THEM FOR WHAT THEY ARE: POLITICAL HOUSECLEANING, 
NOT DEMOCRATIC REFORM OF THE PARTY.  ONCE HE HAS ALL THE 
REINS IN HIS OWN HANDS, SANADER WILL NO LONGER HAVE ANY 
EXCUSES FOR NOT DELIVERING.  UNTIL THE HDZ DEMONSTRATES -- 
WITH ACTIONS, NOT JUST PRIVATE STATEMENTS -- THAT IT IS A 
DEMOCRATIC PARTY READY TO WORK FOR STABILITY IN THE REGION, 
WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD IT AT ARM'S LENGTH. 
ROSSIN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
>