This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HANOI 000812 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI VM
SUBJECT:  THE ROLE OF THINK TANKS IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS 
 
REF:  A.  02 Hanoi 2871     B.  Hanoi 0362 
 
¶1.  (U)  SUMMARY: The GVN supports an extensive network of 
research institutes ("think tanks") under the National 
Center for Social Sciences and Humanities (NCSSH).  Among 
its 25 think tanks, five focus on Vietnam's external 
relations.  While their influence appears modest, the think 
tanks provide advice and information to GVN ministries (and 
relatively candid opinions to emboffs, unusual in this 
system) as part of the policy planning process.  Most 
research projects are self-generated, but the think tanks 
also respond to specific ministry requests; they likely have 
more influence in the latter category.  Expansion of the 
foreign affairs-related think tanks in the foreseeable 
future is unlikely due to budget constraints and a lack of 
trained personnel.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------- 
A look at the NCSSH 
------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U)  The NCSSH in its present incarnation has existed 
since 1993.  A predecessor -- "the Department of Literature, 
History and Geography" -- began  in 1953 and operated 
through the war years but on a limited basis.  According to 
Dr. Nguyen Giang Hai, NCSSH's Acting Director for 
International Cooperation, the framework organization now 
includes 25 entities and employs about 1,350 permanent 
staff, mostly researchers, in its: 
--  Center for China Studies; 
-- Center for Japan Studies/Koreas Studies (Note:  The 
Koreas Center is administratively part of the Center for 
Japan Studies.  End Note); 
-- Center for European Studies; 
-- Center for North America Studies; 
-- Institute of Southeast Asia Studies; 
-- Institute of Philosophy; 
-- Institute of Sociology; 
-- Institute of Economics; 
-- Institute of World Economy; 
-- Institute of State and Law; 
-- Institute of History; 
-- Institute of Human Studies; 
-- Institute of Archaeology; 
-- Institute of Ethnology; 
-- Institute of Literature; 
-- Institute of Linguistics; 
-- Institute of Folklore Studies; 
-- Institute of Han Nom Studies (i.e., pre-romanized 
Vietnamese script and literature); 
-- Institute of Psychology; 
-- Institute of Religious Studies; 
-- Institute of Social Sciences in Ho Chi Minh City; 
-- Center for Human Geography; 
-- Center for Family and Women Studies; 
-- Museum of Ethnology (which just co-organized the major 
Vietnamese exhibition with the American Museum of Natural 
History in New York City). 
 
¶3.  (U)  Most of the research at the five foreign affairs 
think tanks is self-generated, Dr. Hai noted, while adding 
that "about 15-20 percent" stems from direct requests from 
various ministries (primarily Ministry of Foreign Affairs). 
He guessed that this ratio likely varies among the think 
tanks, however.  Dr. Hai added that most think tanks focus 
their efforts in three areas:  (1) basic research to assist 
the GVN in policy planning; (2) training students for MA and 
PhD programs; and, (3) research on various aspects of social 
sciences and humanities. 
 
------------------------ 
CENTER FOR CHINA STUDIES 
------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (U)  Dr. Nguyen Tien Sam, Director of the China Studies 
Center, noted that his Center researches subjects relevant 
broadly to the PRC, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao, but the 
bulk of its work focuses on the PRC.  Researchers specialize 
both in Chinese history as well as modern day conditions and 
bilateral relations, including Vietnam/PRC and PRC/US.  Dr. 
Sam said that, in recent years, the Center had "given 
considerable attention" to the PRC's experience in economic 
reform and how that experience may apply to Vietnam's own 
reform efforts.  Other research focuses on predicting policy 
trends in the PRC and how such trends might impact Vietnam. 
Long and short-term research projects have examined Chinese 
culture and society. 
 
¶5.  (U)  The Center has also hosted seminars with other 
domestic and foreign research institutions (including a 
lively half-day session on US-China relations featuring 
Ambassador Burghardt in December 2002).  Dr. Sam highlighted 
a recent seminar on the PRC's 16th Party Congress, which 
examined its particular relevance to Vietnam (ref a).  Dr. 
Sam admitted that the China Studies Center was not immune 
from outside pressures, lamenting in particular that a 
planned seminar on Vietnam - Taiwan relations, scheduled for 
August 2002 in Hanoi, had been postponed due to "strong 
objections" from the PRC Embassy in Hanoi (ref b).  The 
seminar is now planned for April; however, the venue has 
been switched to Taipei. 
-------------------------------- 
CENTER FOR NORTH AMERICA STUDIES 
-------------------------------- 
¶6.  (U)  Nguyen Thien Son, Director of the North America 
Center, said that his Center focuses on Vietnam's political, 
economic, cultural, social, and historical relations with 
the United States, Canada, and Mexico.  The North America 
Center views itself as a "bridge" between scholars and 
businesspeople in North America and Vietnam, Son noted.  To 
this end, the Center also produces articles and publications 
in English on various North American political and economic 
issues, although the bulk of its work remains in Vietnamese. 
Dr. Son added that a major ongoing project is to examine 
Vietnam - US relations under the present Administration. 
 
¶7.  (U)  Dr. Son estimated that "about 15 percent" of his 
Center's work results from specific requests from 
ministries, especially MFA.  There is normally "some 
urgency" to these latter requests, he claimed.  Two recent 
requests included analyses on US society after the September 
11 attacks and on US - North Korea relations.  Other GVN 
"clients" include the Ministry of Public Security (MPS) and 
the Ministry of Defense (MOD).  At the request of MFA, MOD, 
and MPS, the Center is currently analyzing "US strategic 
goals in Southeast Asia," Son claimed, highlighting the 
interest of those two ministries in developing a long-term 
strategy to counterbalance US policy.  MOD has now 
additionally tasked the Center to examine "The Iraq War and 
Its Consequences," according to Son. 
 
------------------------------------ 
INSTITUTE FOR SOUTHEAST ASIA STUDIES 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶8.  (U)  Dr. Tran Khanh, Head of the Institute's Political 
Research and International Relations Department, described 
its foci as economic, political, historical, and cultural 
issues among Southeast Asian countries (especially 
bilaterally with Vietnam) as well as their relationships 
with world powers, notably the U.S.  Dr. Khanh said that the 
Institute also examines regional issues such as ASEAN's role 
and development.  According to Dr. Khanh, the Institute's 
main GVN clients are MFA, MOD, the Ministry of Trade, and 
the Ministry of Planning and Investment.  At the request of 
the MFA, the Center is now working on a project to analyze 
Vietnam's future links with ASEAN, projecting ahead to 2010. 
 
------------------------------ 
CENTER FOR JAPAN/KOREAS STUDIES 
------------------------------ 
 
¶9.  (U)  Ngo Xuan Binh, Deputy Director of the Center for 
Japan Studies (and concurrently Director of the Center for 
Koreas Studies), said that his Center initially focused 
mainly on Japanese politics, economy, history, society, 
culture, and language.  Concerning Vietnam - Japan 
relations, the Center has analyzed the bilateral 
relationship since the implementation of Vietnam's "doi moi" 
(renovation) policy in 1986, as well as changes in Japan's 
foreign policy since the end of the Cold War.  Binh 
described his Center's main purpose as assisting GVN policy 
makers. 
 
¶10.  (U)  In addition to research projects, Binh cited other 
Center activities, including a seminar on Vietnam - Japan 
relations planned for September 2003 to mark the 30th 
anniversary of bilateral diplomatic relations.  Binh added 
that the Center also hosted a seminar in March comparing 
education in Vietnam and Japan. 
 
¶11.  (U)  Not until 1998 did the NCSSH direct the Japan 
Center to undertake research on the Koreas, Binh claimed, 
and established a small Center for Koreas Studies under the 
Japan Center.  Since then, the Koreas Center has primarily 
looked at South Korea, because there is little information 
available about North Korea and because the GVN views the 
relationship with South Korea as "having more potential," 
Binh added. 
 
¶12.  (U)  Binh noted that a March 2001 Center workshop on 
administrative reforms in South Korea had attracted 
"considerable interest from several GVN ministries."  More 
recently, a December 2002 seminar on educational reforms in 
South Korea was also "well attended," he added.  However, 
Binh lamented that, while his Center regularly distributes 
its journal and other publications to different government 
agencies, "few officials read them." 
--------------------------- 
CENTER FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES 
--------------------------- 
 
¶13.  (U)  Bui Nhat Quang, Deputy Chief of the Vietnam - 
European Union (EU) Research Department of the Center for 
European Studies, detailed research efforts on Vietnam's 
relations with northern, western, and eastern Europe, the 
EU, and Russia.  Major foci include EU development trends 
and their significance for Vietnam, how to broaden Vietnam's 
political and economic relationship with Europe,  and 
assisting GVN ministries "better to understand Europe." 
Quang noted that the Center is working on a three-year 
project, funded by the EU, to establish a documentation 
center that will provide more information about Europe as 
well as improve the Center's research capabilities.  The 
project also supports EU-related conferences, including a 
February 2003 conference on ASEAN - EU relations. 
 
¶14.  (U)  Quang added that the Center's primary audience is 
the MFA, but the Center also has "close relationships" with 
local universities, especially Vietnam National University's 
Faculty of International Studies.  Quang volunteered only 
that his Center "occasionally" implements projects in 
response to on specific GVN requests/taskings. 
 
-------------- 
LIMITED IMPACT 
-------------- 
 
¶15.  (U)  According to the NCSSH's Dr. Hai, the foreign 
policy think tanks, while tasked "to advise" the GVN, are 
not a major component of the decision-making process but 
"may have some limited influence."  Dr. Hai pointed out that 
"one must differentiate between general research and work 
performed at a ministry's request."  If a request is 
"urgent," it is likely to be given more attention and "have 
more impact," he claimed.  Dr. Hai added that think tank 
officials also exert a "certain amount of influence" as 
advisors to GVN delegations on overseas missions. 
 
¶16.  (U)  According to Nguyen Thanh Huy, a senior expert 
from the MFA's ASEAN Department, think tank materials serve 
as "useful references, but have a limited audience." 
However, he agreed that when a think tank performs an 
analysis based on a specific request, "it has more 
influence."  Separately, Nguyen Thi Thanh Thuy, Deputy Dean 
at Vietnam National University's Faculty of International 
Studies, said that her staff and students "do not generally 
pay much attention" to think tank materials, while claiming 
that her faculty had a "good relationship" with the foreign 
affairs think tanks.  Thuy added that the amount of "new 
research" the think tanks performed was "limited."   She 
observed that "much of what they publish" was material 
translated from foreign sources.  Dang Hoang Giang, senior 
expert at the MFA's Laws and Treaties Department, said 
separately that he and his colleagues pay "little attention" 
to think tank material.  He could not recall any specific 
research requests made by his department recently to any of 
the foreign affairs think tanks. 
 
------------------------------- 
ADDITIONAL THINK TANKS UNLIKELY 
------------------------------- 
 
¶17.  (U)  According to Tran Thi Lan Anh, Deputy Director of 
NCSSH's International Cooperation Department, NCSSH has 
requested that the Prime Minister's office authorize 
additional research institutes to specialize in the Middle 
East and Africa.  However, Anh admitted that, while the GVN 
"understands the importance of these areas," separate 
centers were "unlikely" for the foreseeable future due to 
budget constraints and a lack of qualified personnel. 
Research and analysis projects are also carried out by the 
MFA, especially its Institute for International Relations. 
Anh commented that most MFA officers are "too busy" with 
other work to perform significant research, however. 
 
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COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶18.  (U)  The GVN spends a surprising amount of its limited 
budgetary resources on these research institutes, apparently 
to no particularly meaningful purpose apart perhaps from 
employment generation among intellectuals.  The think tanks 
nonetheless seem to have found a somewhat complementary 
niche, performing tasks that ministries have neither the 
time nor resources to undertake, and increasingly reaching 
out to regional and international counterparts.  Of most 
relevance to the USG, think tankers are among the embassy's 
more open, accessible, and knowledgeable interlocutors (even 
to the extent sometimes of offering personal views, unusual 
in this system), even if their GVN audience is not reading 
their reports. 
BURGHARDT