This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002032 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NEA/ARN, NEA/PPD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2013 
TAGS: PREL PGOV JO
SUBJECT: TFIZ01: AMIDST EMOTIONS AND ANGER, A FEW CALMER 
VOICES APPEAR 
 
REF: A. AMMAN 974 
     ¶B. AMMAN 1685 
     ¶C. AMMAN 1718 
     ¶D. AMMAN 1949 
     ¶E. KUWAIT 1207 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR EDWARD W. GNEHM.  REASONS: 1.5 (B) and (D) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY.  As we have reported, the anger of most 
Jordanians towards coalition military action against the 
Iraqi regime is obvious and unmistakable (reftels).  However, 
as the war moves into its third week, we are beginning to see 
a "cooling off" among some of our contacts.  One human rights 
contact, not known for his pro-USG-policy views, predicts 
that as soon as Saddam is "clearly finished," the current 
flaring of "Arab pride in the Iraqi resistance" will 
dissipate.  While the rage among the vast majority continues, 
and the media continues to fan the flames with pictures of 
dead Iraqi civilians, some, particularly those in business 
community, are returning to a more pragmatic view of things. 
These individuals are focusing on how to keep businesses 
running and positioned to capitalize on the demise of the 
Iraqi regime. 
 
¶2. (C) Despite the "cooling off," even those who have 
accepted the reality (and the virtue) of Saddam's demise are 
highly skeptical of our intentions especially toward Syria, 
many are telling us that "people will never look at America 
the same way again."  END SUMMARY 
 
------------------------------ 
HR ACTIVIST SAYS ANTI-USG SLOGANS 
ARE MORE "TEARS" THAN "FISTS" 
------------------------------ 
 
¶3. (C) On March 30 PolOff met with human rights activist 
Fawzi Samhoury (strictly protect).  Samhoury has attended 
several professional associations organizational meetings and 
is in contact with opposition figures directing anti-war 
demonstrations.  In his view, the anger against the coalition 
military action is "more tears than fists," and can be 
expected to dissipate once it is clear Saddam is finished. 
Samhoury said the Arab street is desperate for something, 
anything, to restore shattered pride, even if it is a few 
American casualties bannered for hours on Al Jazeera: "Saddam 
is not championing any real 'Arab' cause, except a display of 
defiance and resistance.  If his resistance goes away, what 
does he have to offer the Arab street?  I believe he is 
finished as soon as the Arabs realize he is finished." 
 
¶4. (C) Samhoury observed that so far, the Iraqi regime has 
been able to transmit its propaganda effectively to the Arab 
street, but said many are beginning to admit that, while both 
western and Arab media are "both biased toward their 
constituents," reality is beginning to set in.  Some 
Jordanians are asking, among themselves, why the Iraqi regime 
talks about civilian deaths and American casualties but never 
discusses Iraqi military losses.  Samhoury told PolOff "when 
an angry Jordanian tells you he believes the Iraqis more than 
he believes the Americans, he might believe what he is 
saying, but he also knows this is a way to insult you." 
 
¶5. (C) On demonstrations, Samhoury said the turnout and 
virulence is less than the April 2002 rallying during the 
Israeli military activity in Jenin.  He said many people, 
particularly Palestinian-Jordanians, are less upset than they 
were at the Jenin "massacres."  But, he noted, this may be 
due to the fact that people here are worn-out from two years 
of crises and lack the stomach or energy to take to the 
street en masse, especially when the GOJ has made clear it 
will not allow any "unlicensed" demonstrations.  He also 
cautioned that, while the demonstrations may be weaker than 
expected, the anger is still there, and directly "100 
percent" at America for the first time. 
 
--------------------------------- 
SOME PRAGMATISTS ARE FOCUSING ON MOVING FORWARD 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Some, especially in the middle/upper-middle class 
business community, want the war to be over with so they can 
proceed with their endeavors (note: this appears to track 
with reporting from at least one other moderate Arab state - 
reftel e).  One young industrialist told us recently that he 
has truckloads of goods packaged, loaded, and waiting on 
trucks in his warehouse, ready to move into Iraq "the day the 
war is over."  Another noted that some local businesses are 
using the war as an excuse for business losses that are more 
likely attributed to poor management, adding that some of his 
clients are using the war as an excuse to delay payments. 
For him, the sooner the war is over, the better. 
 
 
¶7.  (C)  A successful Jordanian pharmaceutical importer said 
he has been more worried in the past week about how to get 
his colleagues to focus on the business opportunities in a 
new Iraq than on how many civilians have been killed or who 
will win the war ("The U.S. will win, no doubt").  Most 
Jordanian businessmen, he said, either cannot accept that 
Saddam Hussein will be defeated, or "see the glass half empty 
-- that they would profit on the bodies of dead Iraqis.  I 
see it half full, that I can play a role in helping Iraqis 
rebuild their country."  He recounted a story of an Iraqi 
friend from school who was "a real Baathi" in the 1970's. 
This friend "escaped" from Iraq three years ago, the 
businessman said, and has been recounting stories of 
corruption, mismanagement, and regime brutality ever since. 
 
¶8.  (C)  An NGO contact and an academic told PolCouns this 
week that, while emotionally very affected by the scenes in 
the Arab media of civilian casualties, they understand the 
brutal nature of the Iraqi regime and the reasons the U.S. 
decided to act with military force.  That said, they were 
uncomfortable because the U.S. "is not sending a clear 
message" about the ultimate goal of U.S. military action. 
Does the U.S., they asked, want to disarm Saddam, liberate 
the Iraqi people, or transform Middle Eastern governments 
into democracies?  All of these are laudable goals which will 
(eventually) gain support among Arabs, if the U.S. is clear 
in articulating its purpose.  His big fear (and that of some 
others we talk to) is that we will come up dry in our search 
for WMD.  As our industrialist contact in para 6 put it, 
"please, please, for everyone's sake, find the chemical 
weapons.  You have to come up with something." 
 
------------------- 
WHO IS NEXT, SYRIA? 
------------------- 
 
¶9. (C) Pragmatism aside, many of those within the small group 
that has begun to "cool off" emotionally tell us flatly that 
America will never be viewed the same way again, and its 
intentions will be doubted for a long time.  Some are worried 
about "media reports" that Saddam has moved WMD into Syria. 
This rumor has already spun up a few to predict that "Syria 
will be next," or that these reports will be used by Israel 
as a "pretext" to reoccupy the Golon Heights, "and perhaps 
beyond." 
 
----------------------- 
THE "ANTIDOTE", ACCORDING 
TO JORDANIANS 
----------------------- 
 
¶10. (C) While the presumption of bad intentions is nearly 
universal, most are quick to suggest the best way for the USG 
to regain credibility here is to move forward on the 
"Roadmap" with concrete steps, as opposed to "mere words." 
This recurring sentiment has been expressed to EmbOffs at 
various levels and from a wide cross-section of Jordanians. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶11. (C)  While the street will remain volatile during 
hostilities, and many people will likely be angry at us 
beyond the end of the war, a small number of Jordanians -- 
mostly educated and well-off -- are beginning to return to 
their daily lives, and think about "what's next."  The 
business community in particular (notwithstanding the 
comments in para 7) has been fairly pragmatic about the 
disruptions of war and about the likely opportunities that 
will follow an end to the conflict (septels). 
GNEHM