This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000602 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE (NARDI) 
USOSCE FOR POL(HELWIG) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2008 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PHUM PREL HR HRPGOV
SUBJECT: CROATIAN PARLIAMENT "PUNTS" ON ELECTION LAW 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  00602  01 OF 02  180840Z 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: POLOFF A.F.GODFREY FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D) 
 
SUMMARY 
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¶1.  (C) POLITICAL PARTIES IN CROATIA'S RULING COALITION COULD 
NOT AGREE ON A MODEL FOR ELECTION LAW REFORM AND HAVE DECIDED 
INSTEAD TO MAKE "TECHNICAL CHANGES" TO EXISTING LEGISLATION. 
THE COALITION NEVER REALLY MOVED BEYOND THE THEORIZING STAGE 
IN ITS EFFORTS TO CUT THE POLITICAL DEAL WHICH WOULD HAVE 
BEEN NECESSARY TO CHANGE CROATIA'S ELECTION LAW.  FOUR 
SEPARATE DRAFTS WERE DEBATED IN THE PARLIAMENT, AND TWO HAVE 
MOVED ON TO A SECOND READING, BUT NONE OF CROATIA'S POLITICAL 
LEADERS EXPECTS EITHER OF THEM TO BECOME LAW.  WHILE CROATIA 
APPEARS TO HAVE MISSED AN OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE THE 
ACCOUNTABILITY OF POLITICIANS TO VOTERS, IT HAS OPTED FOR 
GREATER STABILITY: THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE 
INDEPENDENCE THAT GENERAL ELECTIONS HAVE TAKEN PLACE TWICE 
UNDER THE SAME RULES.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) CROATIA'S CONSTITUTION REQUIRES THAT ANY NEW 
LEGISLATION REGULATING ELECTIONS BE ADOPTED A FULL YEAR PRIOR 
TO THE DATE OF EXPECTED ELECTIONS.  BECAUSE THE CROATIAN 
PARLIAMENT TOOK UP ITS MANDATE IN FEBRUARY 2000, THE LATEST 
POSSIBLE DATE ELECTIONS COULD TECHNICALLY TAKE PLACE IS APRIL 
2004 (SIXTY DAYS AFTER THE EXPIRY OF THE CURRENT MANDATE), 
WHICH MEANS THAT IF A NEW ELECTION LAW WAS TO BE PASSED 
BEFORE THE DEADLINE, IT MUST MOVE QUICKLY.  WHILE THAT 
DEADLINE IS CONSIDERED NON-BINDING BY SOME POLITICAL 
OBSERVERS (SINCE THERE IS NO SANCTION IF IT IS MISSED), MOST 
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PAGE 03        ZAGREB  00602  01 OF 02  180840Z 
OBSERVERS THINK THAT THOSE WHO WERE PRESSING FOR REFORM 
MISSED THEIR CHANCE. 
 
¶3.  (C) THEORIZING ABOUT HOW TO REFORM CROATIA'S ELECTION LAW 
HAS BEEN A POPULAR PASTIME IN ZAGREB, BUT THE TEMPO OF 
DISCUSSION INCREASED AS THE LIKELY DATE FOR ELECTIONS DREW 
NEARER.  WHILE PUBLIC STATEMENTS VARY, MOST POLITICIANS TELL 
US PRIVATELY THAT THEY EXPECT ELECTIONS TO TAKE PLACE THIS 
FALL, IN OCTOBER OR NOVEMBER.  THE PARLIAMENT'S POWERFUL 
COMMITTEE FOR CONSTITUTION, RULES AND POLITICAL SYSTEMS HAD 
BEEN WORKING ON A VARIETY OF DRAFTS FOR NEARLY A YEAR, BUT 
COULD NOT AGREE ON A SINGLE SYSTEM.  COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN MATO 
ARLOVIC (SDP) DESCRIBED FOR US A COMPLICATED PROPOSAL FOR 
COMBINING PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION WITH DIRECT ELECTION 
FROM AN OPEN LIST.  EVEN AS HE DESCRIBED THE THEORY, HE TOLD 
US THAT IT HAD LITTLE CHANCE OF BECOMING LAW. 
 
EVERYBODY'S GOT A DRAFT ELECTION LAW 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (SBU) RATHER THAN SITTING DOWN AND AGREEING ON A 
COMPROMISE SOLUTION, THE COALITION'S TWO LARGEST PARTIES -- 
THE SDP AND HSS -- FORMALLY SUBMITTED THEIR OWN SEPARATE 
DRAFTS FOR CONSIDERATION BY THE PARLIAMENT.  THE OPPOSITION 
DEMOCRATIC CENTER (DC - WITH ONLY THREE SEATS IN THE CURRENT 
PARLIAMENT) TABLED ITS DRAFT, AND ONE MP FROM THE IDS 
(ISTRIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION - A REGIONAL PARTY) AND ONE FROM 
THE LS (LIBERAL PARTY - WITH FOUR SEATS) TABLED YET ANOTHER. 
 
MINORITY REPRESENTATION, DIASPORA, REDISTRICTING 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
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¶5.  (SBU) ALL OF THE SPONSORS OF THE VARIOUS DRAFTS ASSERT 
THAT THEIR COMMON GOAL IS TO INCREASE THE LEVEL OF MPS' 
DIRECT RESPONSIBILITY TO VOTERS BY LETTING VOTERS, RATHER 
THAN PARTY LEADERS, DECIDE WHICH CANDIDATES FROM A PARTY LIST 
SECURE SEATS IN PARLIAMENT.  WHILE THEY TREAT THE ISSUE 
DIFFERENTLY, ALL OF THE DRAFTS INCREASE THE NUMBER OF ETHNIC 
MINORITY REPRESENTATIVES TO COMPLY WITH THE NEW 
CONSTITUTIONAL LAW ON NATIONAL MINORITIES.  THE DRAFTS 
DIFFERED WIDELY ON HOW -- AND INTO HOW MANY DISTRICTS -- TO 
DIVIDE UP THE ELECTORAL SPACE AND ALSO ON HOW TO TREAT THE 
CONTENTIOUS ISSUE OF DIASPORA VOTING. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) THE SDP PROPOSAL CALLED FOR CROATIA TO BE 
CONSIDERED A SINGLE ELECTORAL DISTRICT, WITH CANDIDATES 
CHOSEN FROM A "SEMI-OPEN" LIST.  REGIONAL AND SMALLER PARTIES 
CRIED FOUL, DECLARING THAT THE SDP WAS TRYING TO "KILL THE 
SMALLER PARTIES."  PARTIES MUST TAKE AT LEAST FIVE PERCENT OF 
THE TOTAL VOTES CAST IN ANY ONE DISTRICT TO WIN A SHARE OF 
THE SEATS IN THE PARLIAMENT FOR THAT DISTRICT, AND ONLY THE 
LARGER, NATIONAL LEVEL PARTIES WOULD GET OVER THAT BAR IF THE 
ENTIRE COUNTRY WAS A SINGLE DISTRICT.  THE HSS PROPOSED A 
MIXED SYSTEM, WHERE HALF OF THE SABOR WOULD BE ELECTED IN 65 
WINNER-TAKE-ALL DISTRICTS, AND THE OTHER HALF IN A SINGLE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5404 
 
PAGE 01        ZAGREB  00602  02 OF 02  180841Z 
ACTION EUR-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AF-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  CIAE-00  INL-00 
      DODE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    FBIE-00  VC-00    TEDE-00 
      INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00 
      NSCE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   DHS-00   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00 
      PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SCT-00   SP-00    STR-00   TRSE-00 
      USIE-00  IIP-00   PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-01   G-00 
      NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00    /007W 
                  ------------------461748  180841Z /38 
P 180830Z MAR 03 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9732 
INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY SKOPJE PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY SOFIA PRIORITY 
USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 
USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 000602 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE (NARDI) 
USOSCE FOR POL(HELWIG) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2008 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PHUM PREL HR HRPGOV
SUBJECT: CROATIAN PARLIAMENT "PUNTS" ON ELECTION LAW 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  00602  02 OF 02  180841Z 
 
COUNTRY-WIDE ELECTORAL DISTRICT BASED ON PROPORTIONAL 
REPRESENTATION (WITH POLITICAL PARTIES DECIDING ON CANDIDATE 
LISTS). 
 
¶7.  (SBU) ALL OF THE COALITION PARTIES AGREE THAT, REGARDLESS 
OF WHETHER THEY PASS A NEW LAW OR JUST TINKER WITH EXISTING 
LEGISLATION, THE WAY THE CROATIAN DIASPORA IS REPRESENTED 
MUST CHANGE.  CROATIA'S CONSTITUTION GIVES CITIZENSHIP TO 
ETHNIC CROATS REGARDLESS OF WHERE THEY RESIDE.  THE EXISTING 
TUDJMAN-ERA STATUTE ALLOWS ALL CITIZENS TO VOTE, EVEN IF THEY 
HAVE NEVER LIVED IN CROATIA.  THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF 
ETHNIC CROATS WHO VOTED FROM ABROAD IN THE 2000 ELECTIONS 
WERE HARD-LINE HDZ SUPPORTERS IN BOSNIA.  THE SDP PROPOSAL 
WOULD ALLOW FOR DIASPORA VOTING, BUT WOULD REQUIRE PROOF OF 
LEGAL RESIDENCE IN CROATIA FOR THREE MONTHS PRIOR TO 
ELECTIONS.  THE HSS PROPOSED TO LIMIT DIASPORA MPS TO THREE, 
WITH ONE FROM EUROPE, ONE FROM NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICA, AND 
ONE REPRESENTING THE DIASPORA IN AFRICA AND AUSTRALIA. 
 
¶8.  (C) THE IDS/LS PROPOSAL TO ADDRESS THE DIASPORA ISSUE WAS 
BASED ON A BILATERAL AGREEMENT WITH BIH ON DUAL CITIZENSHIP, 
STILL TO BE NEGOTIATED.  CROATIA AND BIH CONTINUE 
NEGOTIATIONS AND MAY YET CONCLUDE THE AGREEMENT, WHICH WOULD 
PREVENT BIH CITIZENS FROM VOTING IN MORE THAN ONE COUNTRY'S 
ELECTIONS.  BUT HIGH REPRESENTATIVE PADDY ASHDOWN'S JANUARY 
2003 DECISION TO DELAY IMPOSING A DUAL CITIZENSHIP LAW IN BIH 
MAY HAVE TAKEN THE ISSUE OFF THE FRONT BURNER. 
 
HDZ: WAIT AND SEE 
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                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        ZAGREB  00602  02 OF 02  180841Z 
 
¶9.  (C) THE OPPOSITION HDZ, CROATIA'S LARGEST PARTY, HAS NOT 
PUT FORWARD A PROPOSAL OF ITS OWN, EVEN THOUGH IT STANDS TO 
LOSE THE MOST WHEN DIASPORA VOTING RIGHTS ARE CURTAILED. HDZ 
PRESIDENT SANADER'S EARLY "SOUND BITE" ON CHANGING THE 
ELECTION LAW HAS BEEN "WE'LL WIN WITH ANY SYSTEM," ALTHOUGH 
HIS PARTY STANDS TO LOSE THE MOST IF BOSNIAN CROATS ARE 
RESTRICTED FROM VOTING.  A MORE LIKELY REASON FOR THE HDZ'S 
RETICENCE TO SUBMIT A DRAFT IS THAT ITS LEADERS KNOW THE 
COALITION WILL VOTE DOWN ANYTHING THEY PROPOSE. 
 
¶10.  (C) ON FEBRUARY 14, THE PARLIAMENT INSTRUCTED THE 
COMMITTEE FOR CONSTITUTION, RULES AND POLITICAL SYSTEMS TO 
PREPARE "TECHNICAL CHANGES" TO THE EXISTING ELECTION LAW IN 
ORDER TO BRING IT INTO COMPLIANCE WITH CHANGES IN THE 
CONSTITUTION AND THE NEW LAW ON NATIONAL MINORITIES.  IN WHAT 
COULD SEEM LIKE A CONTRADICTION, THE PARLIAMENT ALSO 
PERMITTED THE SDP AND HSS DRAFT ELECTION LAWS TO ADVANCE IN 
THE LEGISLATIVE PROCESS.  NOW THAT THESE BILLS HAVE PASSED 
THEIR "FIRST READING," THEY WILL BE SCHEDULED FOR A SECOND 
AND FINAL DEBATE WITHIN SIX MONTHS UNLESS THEY ARE WITHDRAWN 
BY THEIR SPONSORS.  ONE POLITICAL ANALYST SUGGESTED THAT THE 
HSS AND SDP WANT TO KEEP THE "THREAT" TO SMALLER PARTIES 
ACTIVE TO ENSURE THAT SMALLER COALITION PARTNERS SUPPORT THE 
"TECHNICAL CHANGES" TO THE EXISTING LAW.  ANTE MARKOV, A 
SENIOR HSS MP, TOLD US THAT THE PARLIAMENT WILL PROBABLY 
AGREE TO SOME SORT OF RESIDENCY REQUIREMENT TO RESTRICT THE 
DIASPORA VOTE UNTIL CLEAR RULES DEFINING DUAL NATIONALITY ARE 
DEVELOPED. 
ROSSIN 
 
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