This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 001069 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME 
 
USAID FOR AA/DCHA WINTER, AA/ANE CHAMBERLAIN, DCHA/FFP 
LANDIS, PPC/DP, PPC/DC 
STATE FOR IO A/S HOLMES, A/S PRM DEWEY, A/S EUR JONES, 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        ROME  01069  01 OF 03  141556Z 
EUR/CACEN, IO/EDA 
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN AND MCHAMBLISS 
 
E.O.  12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID EAGR AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF KUNR WFP UN KUNR EAID WFP UN KUNR EAID WFP UN
SUBJECT: IMMINENT WFP FOOD PIPELINE BREAK IN THE CAUCASUS 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
> >                          1. US MISSION ROME PROGRAM 
SPECIALIST TRAVELED TO ARMENIA, GEORGIA AND AZERBAIJAN FROM 
FEBRUARY 23 THROUGH MARCH 8, 2003.  WFP'S PROTRACTED RELIEF 
AND RECOVERY OPERATIONS (PRROS) IN EACH OF THOSE COUNTRIES 
WERE ASSESSED AND DETERMINED TO BE IN NEED OF EXPEDITED 
SUPPORT.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------ 
ARMENIA BACKGROUND 
------------------ 
 
¶2. PRRO 10053.0 BEGAN IN JULY OF 2001 AND IS SCHEDULED TO 
END IN JUNE OF 2004.  APPROXIMATELY U.S. DOLLARS 32.8 
MILLION FOR 60,794 METRIC TONS OF COMMODITIES IS REQUIRED TO 
ASSIST 140,000 BENEFICIARIES A YEAR CONSISTING OF REFUGEES 
OR INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS, HOMELESS EARTHQUAKE 
VICTIMS, DISABLED PERSONS, SINGLE ELDERLY PENSIONERS, 
DESTITUTE WOMEN AND SCHOOLCHILDREN. 
 
¶3. AS A SOVIET REPUBLIC, ARMENIA WAS A HEAVY INDUSTRIALIZED 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        ROME  01069  01 OF 03  141556Z 
COUNTRY.  IN 1985, ARMENIA ATTRIBUTED ALMOST 75 PERCENT OF 
ITS GDP TO INDUSTRY.  THE BREAK-UP OF THE SOVIET UNION AND 
THE CONFLICT WITH AZERBAIJAN OVER NAGORNO-KARABAGH RESULTED 
IN AN ENERGY CRISIS AND ECONOMIC BLOCKADE.  THESE FACTORS, 
TOGETHER WITH THE 1998 RUSSIAN FINANCIAL COLLAPSE, CAUSED A 
FURTHER DECLINE IN AND REARRANGEMENT OF THE ECONOMY. 
 
¶4. TODAY, AGRICULTURE PRODUCES ABOUT 30 PERCENT COMPARED 
WITH INDUSTRY'S 20 PERCENT OF THE COUNTRY'S GDP. 
UNEMPLOYMENT, WHICH HAS FORCED A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE 
POPULATION TO RELY ON SUBSISTENCE FARMING, HOVERS AT 25 
PERCENT. THE GINI COEFFICIENT, A MEASURE OF INCOME INEQUITY, 
WAS RATED AT 0.690 IN 1999 AND CONTINUES TO REMAIN 
STUBBORNLY HIGH. 
 
¶5. THE PRRO HAS RECEIVED ABOUT U.S. 10.6 MILLION SINCE ITS 
INCEPTION, AND NOW STOCKS OF COMMODITIES ARE ALMOST 
EXHAUSTED.  THE APPROVED FOOD BASKET CONSISTS OF WHEAT 
FLOUR, PULSES, VEGETABLE OIL, AND SUGAR, A REQUIREMENT OF 
ABOUT 1,700 METRIC TONS PER MONTH.  SHORTFALLS IN VEGETABLE 
OIL BEGIN TO APPEAR THIS MONTH AND IN WHEAT FLOUR NEXT 
MONTH. 
 
--------------- 
ARMENIA COMMENT 
--------------- 
 
¶6. IF CONTRIBUTIONS DO NOT MATERIALIZE IMMEDIATELY, WFP IN 
ARMENIA WILL BE FACED WITH A HOBSON'S CHOICE OF REDUCING THE 
AMOUNT OF FOOD DISTRIBUTED OR BENEFICIARIES RECEIVING IT.  A 
SMALL INVESTMENT NOW WILL PROVIDE AN IMMENSE BENEFIT TO 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        ROME  01069  01 OF 03  141556Z 
DESERVING PEOPLE DURING THEIR TRANSITION TO A MARKET 
ECONOMY. END COMMENT. 
 
------------------ 
GEORGIA BACKGROUND 
------------------ 
 
¶7. PRRO 10211.0 IS A THREE-YEAR PROGRAM RUNNING FROM APRIL 
2003 TO THE END OF MARCH 2006. A TOTAL OF U.S. DOLLARS 23.4 
MILLION FOR ABOUT 50,493 METRIC TONS OF COMMODITIES IS 
REQUIRED TO ASSIST 209,500 REFUGEES, IDPS AND VULNERABLE 
GROUPS IN BOTH URBAN AND RURAL AREAS. 
 
¶8. SINCE ITS INDEPENDENCE FROM THE SOVIET UNION IN 1991, 
GEORGIA HAS CONTINUED TO FACE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL CRISES 
INCLUDING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE, INTERNAL ARMED CONFLICT, AND 
CIVIL STRIFE.  GOVERNMENT FIGURES REPORT THAT GEORGIA'S 
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FELL BY 78 PERCENT BETWEEN 1990 AND 
¶2000. PUBLIC EXPENDITURE HAS BEEN INSUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN 
BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE AND SOCIAL PROGRAMS FOR THE MOST 
VULNERABLE.  THE NON-PAYMENT OF GOVERNMENT WAGES AND 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ6727 
 
PAGE 01        ROME  01069  02 OF 03  141556Z 
ACTION AID-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    CIAE-00  INL-00   SRPP-00  EB-00    EUR-00 
      OIGO-00  UTED-00  VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01 
      VCE-00   NSAE-00  OES-00   OIC-02   PC-01    TEST-00  TRSE-00 
      EPAE-00  PRM-00   DRL-01   SAS-00     /005W 
                  ------------------447D26  141556Z /38 
P 141452Z MAR 03 
FM AMEMBASSY ROME 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8737 
INFO AMEMBASSY YEREVAN 
AMEMBASSY TBILISI 
AMEMBASSY BAKU 
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE 
USDA FAS WASHDC 2593 
SECDEF WASHDC 
USEU BRUSSELS 3162 
USMISSION GENEVA 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 03 ROME 001069 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME 
 
USAID FOR AA/DCHA WINTER, AA/ANE CHAMBERLAIN, DCHA/FFP 
LANDIS, PPC/DP, PPC/DC 
STATE FOR IO A/S HOLMES, A/S PRM DEWEY, A/S EUR JONES, 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        ROME  01069  02 OF 03  141556Z 
EUR/CACEN, IO/EDA 
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN AND MCHAMBLISS 
 
E.O.  12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID EAGR AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF KUNR WFP UN KUNR EAID WFP UN KUNR EAID WFP UN
SUBJECT: IMMINENT WFP FOOD PIPELINE BREAK IN THE CAUCASUS 
 
PENSIONS AND THE DECLINE IN PRIVATE INCOME HAVE COMPOUNDED 
AN ALREADY DESPERATE SITUATION WHERE MANY ARE FORCED TO SELL 
THEIR BELONGINGS TO BUY FOOD. 
 
¶9. THE ECONOMIC DEVASTATION HAS BEEN COMPOUNDED BY A SERIES 
OF TERRITORIAL DISPUTES, ARMED CONFLICT AND POLITICAL 
CRISES.  UNRESOLVED ETHNIC CONFLICTS IN THE BREAKAWAY 
REGIONS OF SOUTH OSSETIA AND ABKHAZIA HAVE RESULTED IN THE 
INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT OF MORE THAN 250,000 PEOPLE.  IN 
ADDITION, WFP FEEDS REFUGEES FROM CHECHNYA. 
 
--------------- 
GEORGIA COMMENT 
--------------- 
 
¶10. TO DATE, OF THE U.S. DOLLARS 23.4 MILLION REQUIRED, ONLY 
2 PERCENT (U.S. 500,000 DOLLARS) HAS BEEN PLEDGED BY DONORS. 
WITHOUT IMMEDIATE SUPPORT, GEORGIA WILL HAVE TO CUT BACK ON 
DISTRIBUTIONS AS EARLY AS APRIL WHEN THEY WILL FACE A 
SHORTFALL IN CEREALS. A COMPLETE PIPELINE BREAK IN ALL 
COMMODITIES IS FORESEEN IN MAY UNLESS NEW CONTRIBUTIONS ARE 
RECEIVED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  END COMMENT. 
 
--------------------- 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        ROME  01069  02 OF 03  141556Z 
AZERBAIJAN BACKGROUND 
--------------------- 
 
¶11. PRRO 10168.0 FOR AZERBAIJAN, ONLY RECENTLY APPROVED IN 
MAY OF 2002 WITH EARLY AND STRONG USG ENDORSEMENT, BEGAN IN 
JANUARY 2003 AND IS SCHEDULED TO END IN DECEMBER OF 2005. 
 
¶12. WAR WITH ARMENIA IN 1992 AND 1993 RESULTED IN THE LOSS 
OF 20 PERCENT OF AZERBAIJAN'S TOTAL TERRITORY, 70 PERCENT OF 
ITS FERTILE LAND, AND THE DISPLACEMENT OF 600,000 PEOPLE 
PLUS ANOTHER 200,000 REFUGEES. 
 
¶13. THESE 800,000 INDEPENDENT DISPLACED PEOPLE AND REFUGEES 
CONSTITUTE 10 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL POPULATION, REPRESENTING 
ONE OF THE HIGHEST PROPORTIONS OF DISPLACED POPULATIONS IN 
THE WORLD.  WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT RESETTLEMENT, LAND 
ALLOCATION AND EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES, THE TARGETED 
430,500 BENEFICIARIES, REQUIRING AN ESTIMATED U.S. DOLLARS 
20 MILLION FOR 43,087 METRIC TONS OF COMMODITIES WILL 
NECESSARILY RELY ON FOOD AID IN THE INTERMEDIATE TERM. 
MEANWHILE, THE LONG ANTICIPATED ECONOMIC BOOM BORNE BY OIL 
REVENUES HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE. 
 
¶14. IN ADDITION, IN DESCRIBING CHRONIC MALNUTRITION, THE 
UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM'S AZERBAIJAN HUMAN 
DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2002 STATES THAT ABOUT 30.5 PERCENT OF 
THE YOUNG CHILDREN OF REFUGEES AND INDEPENDENT DISPLACED 
PEOPLE (IDPS) ARE STUNTED. 
 
¶15. LESS THAN 5 PERCENT OF PLANNED CONTRIBUTIONS HAVE BEEN 
PLEDGED.  THESE FUNDS ARE DESPERATELY NEEDED TO MAINTAIN THE 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        ROME  01069  02 OF 03  141556Z 
MINIMUM DIETARY STANDARDS OF FOOD-INSECURE IDPS AND OTHER 
VULNERABLE GROUPS THROUGH TARGETED INTERVENTIONS AND TAKE- 
HOME RATIONS.  WFP AND ITS PARTNERS SUCH AS WORLD VISION ARE 
ALSO PROMOTING TARGETED INTERVENTIONS AND ACTIVITIES LEADING 
TO SELF-RELIANCE AND THE CREATION OF ASSETS THROUGH TRAINING 
AND INCOME GENERATION.  SCHOOL FEEDING WILL PROVIDE 
INCENTIVES FOR SCHOOL ATTENDANCE, ESPECIALLY AMONG GIRLS, 
WHILE ADDRESSING IODINE AND OTHER MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCIES 
OF ALL CHILDREN. 
 
¶16. IN APRIL WFP WILL EXPERIENCE A SHORTFALL OF ABOUT 940 
TONS.  BY THE END OF JULY, THE ESTIMATED SHORTFALL WILL BE 
ALMOST 3,900 METRIC TONS IN WHEAT FLOUR ALONE. 
 
------------------ 
AZERBAIJAN COMMENT 
------------------ 
 
¶17. ON MARCH 4, 2003 THE US MISSION PROGRAM SPECIALIST MET 
WITH MR. ALI HASANOV, THE AZERBAIJANI DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER 
CONCERNING FOOD AID.  MR. HASANOV CONVEYED HIS DEEPEST 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ6726 
 
PAGE 01        ROME  01069  03 OF 03  141556Z 
ACTION AID-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    CIAE-00  INL-00   SRPP-00  EB-00    EUR-00 
      UTED-00  VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01   L-00 
      VCE-00   NSAE-00  OES-00   OIC-02   PC-01    IRM-00   TEST-00 
      TRSE-00  EPAE-00  PRM-00   DRL-01   SAS-00     /005W 
                  ------------------447D3E  141556Z /38 
P 141452Z MAR 03 
FM AMEMBASSY ROME 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8738 
INFO AMEMBASSY YEREVAN 
AMEMBASSY TBILISI 
AMEMBASSY BAKU 
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE 
USDA FAS WASHDC 2594 
SECDEF WASHDC 
USEU BRUSSELS 3163 
USMISSION GENEVA 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 03 ROME 001069 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME 
 
USAID FOR AA/DCHA WINTER, AA/ANE CHAMBERLAIN, DCHA/FFP 
LANDIS, PPC/DP, PPC/DC 
STATE FOR IO A/S HOLMES, A/S PRM DEWEY, A/S EUR JONES, 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        ROME  01069  03 OF 03  141556Z 
EUR/CACEN, IO/EDA 
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN AND MCHAMBLISS 
 
E.O.  12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID EAGR AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF KUNR WFP UN KUNR EAID WFP UN KUNR EAID WFP UN
SUBJECT: IMMINENT WFP FOOD PIPELINE BREAK IN THE CAUCASUS 
 
GRATITUDE AND APPRECIATION FOR THE STRONG SUPPORT GIVEN BY 
THE USG TO THE PRRO FOR AZERBAIJAN DURING WFP'S EXECUTIVE 
BOARD MEETING IN MAY 2002, AN INTERVENTION THAT LED TO THE 
APPROVAL OF THE PROJECT.  A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION FOR THE 
PRRO WOULD FOLLOW THROUGH ON THE USG'S EARLIER VERBAL 
SUPPORT.  END COMMENT. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE WFP PRROS IN 
ARMENIA, GEORGIA AND AZERBAIJAN 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶18. INTENDED BENEFICIARIES OF ALL THREE OF THE WFP PRROS IN 
THE CAUCASUS INCLUDE A LARGE POPULATION OF REFUGEES AND IDPS 
AS WELL AS OTHER FOOD INSECURE POPULATIONS INCLUDING THE 
ELDERLY AND CHILDREN. 
 
¶19. IN EACH COUNTRY THE US MISSION PROGRAM SPECIALIST 
OBSERVED AND ASSESSED WFP'S LOGISTICS CAPABILITY AND 
CONTROLS, SELECTED FIELD PROJECTS, INTERNAL SYSTEMS AND 
STAFF EFFECTIVENESS, AND BENEFICIARY SELECTION AND 
MONITORING. 
 
¶20. DESPITE THE OCCASIONAL TENDENCY FOR HUMANITARIAN 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        ROME  01069  03 OF 03  141556Z 
ASSISTANCE TO CREATE DEPENDENT POPULATIONS, THIS PHENOMENON 
IS NOT SUPPORTED BY GROWTH IN THE RECIPIENT POPULATIONS.  ON 
THE CONTRARY, WFP ASSISTANCE, OCCASIONALLY IN PARTNERSHIP 
WITH OTHER WELL-RUN ORGANIZATIONS SUCH AS WORLD VISION, IS 
WELL TARGETED AND PROVIDED EFFECTIVELY AND EFFICIENTLY. 
 
¶21. HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE IN THE CAUCASUS CONTINUES TO BE 
REQUIRED, IF ONLY ON A SMALL SCALE IN COMPARISON TO MANY 
OTHER AREAS OF THE WORLD.  IRONICALLY, THE MODEST SCALE OF 
ASSISTANCE MAY EXPLAIN WHY DONOR COUNTRIES HAVE NEGLECTED TO 
CONTRIBUTE TO WFP'S PRROS.  CONTRIBUTIONS OF 154,000 METRIC 
TONS, WHICH REPRESENT TOTAL REQUIREMENTS, WOULD ENABLE WFP 
TO CARRY OUT ITS ASSISTANCE TO 881,000 INTENDED RECIPIENTS 
IN ALL THREE COUNTRIES AS PLANNED.  DELAYS WILL ENTAIL 
REDUCTIONS IN PROGRAM SCOPE. 
 
¶22. THE USAID MISSION DIRECTORS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS 
SUPPORT THE WFP PROGRAMS IN THEIR COUNTRIES AND ENCOURAGE A 
POSITIVE RESPONSE TO THEIR APPEALS ON THE PART OF USAID/FOOD 
FOR PEACE. 
 
¶23. IN VIEW OF THE FAVORABLE ASSESSMENT OF WFP ACTIVITIES IN 
THE SOUTH CAUCASUS, THE US MISSION URGES USG FUNDING 
ORGANIZATIONS, PRINCIPALLY THE FOOD FOR PEACE OFFICE WITHIN 
USAID, TO TAKE EARLY ACTION TO SUPPORT ALL 3 PRROS. 
 
¶23. MINIMIZE CONSIDERED.  HALL 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
> 
 2003ROME01069 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED