P 050736Z MAR 03
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0741
INFO AIT TAIPEI 3892
AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 
AMCONSUL SHENYANG 
AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 
AMCONSUL HONG KONG 
AMEMBASSY TOKYO 
AMEMBASSY SEOUL 
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI
JICPAC HONOLULU HI
DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
ZEN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BEIJING 002438 
 
TREASURY FOR OASIA/INA - KEIDEL/DUPUY 
STATE PASS FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD FOR JOHNSON, NEW YORK 
FRB FOR DAGES/CLARK/CHU, SAN FRANCISCO FRB FOR CURRAN 
 
STATE PASS USTR FOR FREEMAN/NEUREITER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/05/13 
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON EFIN ETRD CH
SUBJECT: NPC SET TO VOTE FOR NEW CHINESE GOVERNMENT 
 
REFS: A) BEIJING 1176; B) SECTO 0018; C) BEIJING 2230 
 
(U) CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR JON 
ALOISI.  REASON 1.5 (B) (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) THE UPCOMING NATIONAL PEOPLE'S CONGRESS (NPC) 
PLENARY SESSION WILL SELECT CHINA'S NEW STATE AND 
LEGISLATIVE LEADERS, ALONG WITH THE LEADERS OF THE NEW 
STATE COUNCIL, STATE CENTRAL MILITARY COMMISSION (CMC) 
SUPREME PEOPLE'S COURT (SPC) AND SUPREME PEOPLE'S 
PROCURATORATE (SPP).  WHILE THE NPC'S ROLE IN THIS 
PROCESS IS LITTLE MORE THAN THAT OF A RUBBERSTAMP, THE 
VERY FACT THAT THE VOTING RESULTS WILL BE MADE PUBLIC 
FORCES THOSE WHO ARE REALLY CALLING THE SHOTS TO 
NOMINATE TECHNICALLY "QUALIFIED" CANDIDATES WHOSE 
SELECTION CAN BE DEFENDED.  RELATIVELY LOW "VOTING" 
OUTCOMES WILL ALSO INDICATE DELEGATES' CONFIDENCE, OR 
LACK THEREOF, IN THE NEW LEADERS.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U) THE MOST IMPORTANT JOB THAT DELEGATES WILL 
PERFORM AT THE NPC SESSION, WHICH WILL BEGIN MARCH 5, IS 
THE SELECTION OF CHINA'S NEW STATE LEADERS. 
SPECIFICALLY, DELEGATES MUST APPROVE IN A CONFIRMATION- 
LIKE "ELECTION" CHINA'S STATE PRESIDENT AND VICE 
PRESIDENT, CHINA'S NEW PREMIER, VICE-PREMIERS, STATE 
COUNCILLORS, HEADS OF STATE COUNCIL MINISTRIES AND 
COMMISSIONS (CURRENTLY 29 BODIES, THOUGH THIS WILL 
CHANGE AS A RESULT OF A RESTRUCTURING PLAN WHICH WILL 
ALSO BE INTRODUCED AT THIS NPC SESSION), THE STATE 
COUNCIL SECRETARY-GENERAL, THE CHAIRMAN AND MEMBERS OF 
THE CMC, THE MEMBERS OF THE NPC'S STANDING COMMITTEE, 
THE NPC STANDING COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN AND CHAIRMEN OF THE 
LEGISLATURE'S 14 FUNCTIONAL COMMITTEES, THE SPC 
PRESIDENT AND THE SPP PROCURATOR-GENERAL.  THIS PROCESS 
WILL END THE TWO-PART GENERATIONAL TURNOVER OF LEADERS 
WHICH BEGAN WITH THE COMMUNIST PARTY'S (CCP'S) 16TH 
NATIONAL CONGRESS LAST NOVEMBER. 
 
¶3.  (C) NOTWITHSTANDING THE NPC'S CONSTITUTIONAL MANDATE 
TO SELECT LEADERS AND MEMBERS OF CHINA'S HIGHEST STATE 
ORGANS, DELEGATES IN REALITY WILL ONLY BE ASKED TO 
RUBBERSTAMP CANDIDATE NAMELISTS FINALIZED DURING THE 
FEBRUARY 24-26 SECOND PLENUM OF THE CCP'S CENTRAL 
COMMITTEE.  MANY OF THOSE ELECTED INTO THE PARTY'S TOP 
BODIES (I.E., THE STANDING COMMITTEE AND POLITBURO) 
IMMEDIATELY AFTER LAST NOVEMBER'S PARTY CONGRESS WILL 
ASSUME GOVERNMENT POSITIONS COMMENSURATE WITH THEIR 
PARTY RANK (I.E., PREMIER, VICE PREMIER OR STATE 
COUNCILLOR).  MOST OF THE REMAINING CANDIDATES ON THE 
LISTS PRESENTED TO NPC DELEGATES WERE PREVIOUSLY PLACED 
IN POSITIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW THEM TO EMERGE DURING THE 
NPC SESSION AS THE "MOST QUALIFIED" CANDIDATES. 
 
EMPHASIS ON QUALIFICATIONS, NOT PARTY CONNECTIONS 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶4.  (C) OUR CONTACTS CONCUR, HOWEVER, THAT THE DYNAMICS 
OF THE GOVERNMENT TURNOVER DIFFER FROM THOSE OF THE 
PARTY LEADERSHIP TRANSITION.  MOST IMPORTANT IN THIS 
REGARD IS THAT, UNLIKE THOSE PARTICIPATING IN THE PARTY 
CONGRESS, NPC VOTE TOTALS ARE MADE PUBLIC.  WHILE CHOSEN 
FOR THEIR POLITICAL RELIABILITY, EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN 
THAT SOME NPC DELEGATES ARE WILLING TO VOTE "NO" OR TO 
ABSTAIN IN CASES WHERE THE CANDIDATES ARE UNPOPULAR. 
THIS PUTS PRESSURE ON PARTY LEADERS TO NOMINATE 
TECHNICALLY "QUALIFIED" CANDIDATES WHOSE SELECTION CAN 
BE DEFENDED TO NPC DELEGATES.  OTHERWISE, THE PARTY 
RISKS SEEING ITS CHOSEN CANDIDATES RECEIVE 
EMBARRASSINGLY LOW (I.E., BELOW 90 PERCENT) SUPPORT 
RATES, THOUGH THE NPC HAS NEVER REJECTED OUTRIGHT ANY OF 
THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE'S "OFFICIAL" CANDIDATES. 
 
PRESIDENT AND VICE PRESIDENT 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) GIVEN JIANG ZEMIN'S PHASED RETIREMENT THAT BEGAN 
WITH HIS RELINQUISHING THE CCP'S GENERAL SECRETARY 
POSITION LAST NOVEMBER, THE BIG PRIZE AT THIS NPC 
SESSION WILL BE HIS STATE PRESIDENT POSITION.  THE 76 
YEAR-OLD PRESIDENT HAS SERVED HIS CONSTITUTIONAL TWO- 
TERM LIMIT.  JIANG CONFIRMED TO SECRETARY POWELL ON 
FEBRUARY 24 THAT HE WILL, AS EXPECTED, TURN OVER HIS 
STATE POSITION TO 60 YEAR-OLD CCP GENERAL SECRETARY HU 
JINTAO (REF B).  EMBASSY SOURCES CONCUR THAT JIANG'S 
PROTEGE, FIFTH-RANKED STANDING COMMITTEE MEMBER ZENG 
QINGHONG, WILL TAKE OVER HU'S VICE PRESIDENCY.  WORTH 
WATCHING WILL BE THE NUMBER OF VOTES RECEIVED BY BOTH 
MEN; A LOW APPROVAL LEVEL FOR ZENG, PARTICULARLY IF HU'S 
POSITIVE VOTE IS HIGH, COULD PROVE EMBARRASSING TO 
JIANG. 
 
STATE COUNCIL LEADERSHIP POSITIONS 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE TURNOVER AT THE TOP 
LEVELS OF CHINA'S (GOVERNMENTAL) STATE COUNCIL THIS 
YEAR.  PREMIER ZHU RONGJI, TWO OF FOUR VICE PREMIERS (LI 
LANQING AND QIAN QICHEN), THREE OF FIVE STATE 
COUNCILLORS (CHI HAOTIAN, ISMAIL AMAT AND WANG ZHONGYU), 
AND THE STATE COUNCIL SECRETARY-GENERAL (ALSO WANG 
ZHONGYU) ARE ALL WELL OVER THE MANDATORY RETIREMENT AGE 
OF 65.  THE REMAINING TWO VICE PREMIERS (WU BANGGUO AND 
WEN JIABAO) AND STATE COUNCILLOR LUO GAN ARE ALL MEMBERS 
OF THE CCP'S NEW STANDING COMMITTEE, INDICATING THAT 
THEIR RETIREMENT IS NOT IMMINENT.  WU YI, THE REMAINING 
STATE COUNCILLOR AND THE ONLY WOMAN AT THE TOP LEVELS OF 
CHINA'S POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, WAS ELECTED TO FULL 
POLITBURO MEMBERSHIP (ALBEIT NOT TO THE STANDING 
COMMITTEE) AT THE 16TH PARTY CONGRESS. 
 
¶7.  (C) EMBASSY CONTACTS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT WEN 
JIABAO, WHO HAS BEEN PERFORMING MANY OF THE PREMIER'S 
RESPONSIBILITIES SINCE LAST NOVEMBER, WILL REPLACE ZHU. 
THEY ALSO AGREE THAT SIXTH-RANKING STANDING COMMITTEE 
MEMBER HUANG JU WILL REPLACE LI LANQING AS EXECUTIVE 
VICE PREMIER, WHILE POLITBURO MEMBERS WU YI, ZENG PEIYAN 
AND HUI LIANGYU WILL ALL BE "ELECTED" VICE PREMIERS. 
 
¶8.  (C) WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POLITBURO MEMBER AND 
PEOPLE'S LIBERATION ARMY GENERAL CAO GANGCHUAN, WHO 
SEEMS CERTAIN TO REPLACE CHI HAOTIAN, THERE IS LESS 
CERTAINTY OVER THE NEW STATE COUNCILLORS.  VARIOUS 
SOURCES HAVE SUGGESTED THAT POLITBURO MEMBER (AND 
MINISTER OF PUBLIC SECURITY) ZHOU YONGKANG (60), AND 
CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBERS TANG JIAXUAN (65), DOJE CERING 
(63), DAI BINGGUO (62) AND HUA JIANMIN (63) ARE POSSIBLE 
CANDIDATES.  HUA, WHO HAS BEEN SERVING AS THE DIRECTOR 
OF THE OFFICE OF THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE'S LEADING GROUP 
FOR FINANCE AND ECONOMICS, MIGHT ALSO BE A CANDIDATE TO 
REPLACE WANG ZHONGYU AS STATE COUNCIL SECRETARY-GENERAL. 
OF THESE INDIVIDUALS, SOURCES HAVE SUGGESTED THAT HUANG 
JU, WHO SUFFERS FROM A REPUTATION FOR CORRUPTION AND 
IMMORAL BEHAVIOR, AND ZHOU YONGKANG, WHOSE CONTROVERSIAL 
ASSIGNMENT LAST DECEMBER AS MINISTER OF PUBLIC SECURITY 
IS SEEN BY MANY AS REVERSING A 20-YEAR EFFORT TO 
DECREASE HIS MINISTRY'S POWER, ARE MOST LIKELY TO 
RECEIVE LOW NPC VOTES. 
 
COMMISSIONS AND MINISTRIES 
-------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (U) NINETEEN OF CHINA'S 29 MINISTERS AND COMMISSION 
DIRECTORS ARE OVER 60.  SIX ARE OVER OR NEARING 
RETIREMENT AGE.  THESE ARE:  MINISTER OF NATIONAL 
DEFENSE CHI HAOTIAN (73), MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS 
TANG JIAXUAN (65), MINISTER OF RAILWAYS FU ZHIHUAN (65), 
MINISTER OF INFORMATION INDUSTRY WU JICHUAN (65), STATE 
DEVELOPMENT PLANNING COMMISSION DIRECTOR ZENG PEIYAN 
(64) AND STATE COMMISSION OF SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND 
INDUSTRY FOR NATIONAL DEFENSE DIRECTOR LIU JIBIN (64). 
IN ADDITION, MINISTER OF CIVIL AFFAIRS DOJE CERING (63) 
HAS SERVED MORE THAN ONE FULL TERM.  (WHILE SERVING MORE 
THAN ONE TERM DOES NOT NECESSARILY DISQUALIFY A MINISTER 
FOR REMAINING IN OFFICE, IT DOES SUGGEST THAT THE 
INDIVIDUAL IS LIABLE TO BE REASSIGNED.) 
 
¶10.  (C) WORKING-LEVEL CONTACTS AT THE MINISTRY OF 
FINANCE (MOF) HAVE INDICATED THAT CURRENT FINANCE 
MINISTER XIANG HUAICHENG (64) WILL BE REPLACED BY STATE 
ADMINISTRATION OF TAXATION (SAT)_DIRECTOR JIN RENQING. 
XIANG WILL TAKE OVER MANAGEMENT OF THE CENTRAL 
GOVERNMENT'S SOCIAL SECURITY FUND FROM FORMER FINANCE 
MINISTER LIU ZHONGLI.  ADDITIONAL MOF SCUTTLEBUTT NAMES 
JIN'S SUCCESSOR AT THE SAT AS XIE XUREN, A VICE MINISTER 
OF THE STATE ECONOMIC AND TRADE COMMISSION WHO 
PREVIOUSLY SERVED AS A VICE MINISTER OF FINANCE AND AS A 
VICE SECRETARY OF THE CCP'S FINANCIAL WORK COMMISSION. 
IN ADDITION, PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA GOVERNOR ZHOU 
XIAOCHUAN, WHO ONLY ASSUMED HIS POST AT THE END OF 
DECEMBER, WILL BE RECONFIRMED AS HEAD OF CHINA'S CENTRAL 
BANK. 
 
¶11.  (C) GIVEN EFFORTS AT THE PARTY CONGRESS TO PUT 
SIGNIFICANTLY YOUNGER CADRES IN LEADERSHIP POSITIONS, A 
CENTRAL PARTY SCHOOL DIRECTOR SUGGESTED THAT THE 
TURNOVER COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL, EVEN OF LEADERS WHO ARE 
STILL SEVERAL YEARS AWAY FROM MANDATORY RETIREMENT AND 
EVEN WITHIN THOSE MINISTRIES UNAFFECTED BY THE 
RESTRUCTURING PLAN.  OTHER SOURCES DISAGREE, SUGGESTING 
THAT MANY OF THESE 60-SOMETHING INDIVIDUALS IN FACT HAVE 
BEEN IN PLACE LESS THAN A FULL TERM AND ARE THUS LIKELY 
TO REMAIN FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE YEARS.  SUPPORTING THE 
LATTER ANALYSIS IS THE FACT THAT FEW OF THE EXECUTIVE 
VICE MINISTERS WHO WOULD MOST LIKELY REPLACE OUTGOING 
MINISTERS ARE FULL OR ALTERNATE CENTRAL COMMITTEE 
MEMBERS. 
 
¶12.  (C) EMBASSY CONTACTS HAVE PICKED CAO GANGCHUAN TO 
REPLACE CHI HAOTIAN, EXECUTIVE VICE FOREIGN MINISTER LI 
ZHAOXING TO REPLACE TANG AND DEPUTY STATE COUNCIL 
SECRETARY-GENERAL MA KAI TO TAKE OVER FROM ZENG PEIYAN 
AT A RESTRUCTURED STATE DEVELOPMENT AND PLANNING 
COMMISSION.  SOURCES AT THE MINISTRY OF CIVIL AFFAIRS 
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT EXECUTIVE VICE MINISTER LI 
XUEJU, ALTHOUGH NOT A CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBER OR 
ALTERNATE, MAY REPLACE DOJE CERING. 
 
CENTRAL MILITARY COMMISSION 
--------------------------- 
 
¶13.  (C) SINCE THE 1970'S, THE MEMBERSHIPS OF THE STATE 
AND THE PARTY CENTRAL MILITARY COMMISSIONS HAVE BEEN 
IDENTICAL; NO CHANGES IN THIS REGARD ARE LIKELY AT THE 
10TH NPC.  JIANG ZEMIN TOLD SECRETARY POWELL ON FEBRUARY 
24 THAT HE WILL RETAIN HIS CMC CHAIRMANSHIP, DESPITE 
SOME SPECULATION TO THE CONTRARY.  REMAINING STATE CMC 
MEMBERS WILL BE THE SAME INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE SERVING ON 
THE PARTY CMC. 
 
NPC POSITIONS 
------------- 
 
¶14.  (U) PROBABLY THE LARGEST TURNOVER OF PERSONNEL WILL 
BE OF THOSE WHO WILL LEAD THE NPC.  STANDING COMMITTEE 
CHAIRMAN LI PENG, WHO IS 74, WILL DEFINITELY RETIRE, 
ALONG WITH 17 STANDING COMMITTEE VICE CHAIRMEN (ALL BUT 
THREE OF WHOM ARE WELL OVER 65) AND AT LEAST 13 OF 14 
CHAIRMEN OF THE NPC'S FUNCTIONAL COMMITTEES.  THE NEW 
NPC DELEGATES MUST ALSO ELECT A NEW STANDING COMMITTEE 
(CURRENTLY 136 MEMBERS). 
 
¶15.  (C) WHILE EMBASSY SOURCES AGREE THAT CCP STANDING 
COMMITTEE MEMBER WU BANGGUO WILL REPLACE LI PENG, 
SOURCES ARE LESS CERTAIN ABOUT WHO WILL REPLACE THE 
OTHERS.  SOUTHERN WEEKEND ON FEBRUARY 27 SUGGESTED THAT 
LEADERS MAY SEEK TO ADD TWENTY "SPECIAL MEMBERS" WHO ARE 
BEING TRANSFERRED TO THE NPC FROM GOVERNMENT POSITIONS 
DURING THE "PEAK OF THEIR CAREERS" IN ORDER TO CREATE A 
MORE PROFESSIONAL, TECHNICALLY PROFICIENT STANDING 
COMMITTEE, BUT DID NOT DISCLOSE ANY NAMES.  SOURCES HAVE 
INDICATED THAT MANY DELEGATES ARE DISSATISFIED WITH THE 
LESS-THAN-DYNAMIC WU AS THE INDIVIDUAL WHO WILL GUIDE 
THE NPC OVER THE COMING YEARS, BUT NOBODY EXPECTS THE 
VOTE FOR WU TO BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS LOW AS THAT FOR THE 
LIKELY NEW CPPCC CHAIRMAN, JIA QINGLIN (REF C). 
 
SUPREME PEOPLE'S COURT AND SUPREME PEOPLE'S 
PROCURATORATE 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶16.  (C) EMBASSY SOURCES CONCUR THAT XIAO YANG (64), THE 
PRESIDENT OF THE SPC, AND HAN ZHUBIN (71), PROCURATOR 
GENERAL OF THE SPP, ARE BOTH LIKELY TO RETIRE.  SPC 
OFFICIALS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT XIAO'S EXECUTIVE VICE 
PRESIDENT, CAO JIANMING, IS MOST LIKELY TO REPLACE HIM, 
THOUGH CAO IS NOT A CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBER.  SOURCES 
OUTSIDE THE SPC HAVE SUGGESTED THAT CENTRAL COMMITTEE 
MEMBER AND FORMER MINISTER OF PUBLIC SECURITY JIA 
CHUNWANG (64) COULD REPLACE HAN. 
 
 
RANDT