This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001303 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2008 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM TU PKK
SUBJECT: OCALAN'S CONTINUED ISOLATION, POSSIBLE RETURN OF 
OHAL COULD SPARK TROUBLE IN SOUTHEAST 
 
REF: A. ANKARA 972 
     ¶B. ADANA 44 
 
 
Classified by Polcouns John Kunstadter; reasons 1.5 b and d. 
 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Relatives and attorneys remain unable to 
visit jailed PKK leader Ocalan; the last visit took place 
November 27.  The official GOT line is that stormy weather 
has grounded the boat that takes visitors to Ocalan's island 
prison, but some GOT officials privately acknowledge there 
must be other factors at play.  Human rights and Kurdish 
activists have protested the situation, and there has been a 
series of demonstrations over Ocalan's situation, sometimes 
involving violence.  GOT officials say the Government is 
preoccupied with Iraq and Cyprus and is unlikely to address 
the problem at this time.  Meanwhile, there are concerns that 
a return to a state of emergency in the southeast in the 
event of war in Iraq will further stir tensions in the 
region.  End Summary. 
 
 
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Ocalan's Isolation Continues 
---------------------------- 
 
 
¶2. (C) Jandarma officials continue to prevent lawyers and 
relatives from visiting jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan; 
the last such visit took place November 27 (reftels).  The 
GOT maintains that stormy weather has grounded the boat used 
to shuttle visitors every Wednesday to Imrali Island in the 
Sea of Marmara, where Ocalan is the only prisoner.  The GOT 
arranged for representatives of the European Committee for 
the Prevention of Torture (CPT) to visit Ocalan by helicopter 
February 17.  The CPT officials reported Ocalan to be in good 
health, but told reporters they did not believe weather was 
the sole reason for his isolation.  Demonstrations, sometimes 
violent, protesting Ocalan's isolation continue across the 
southeast (reftel B), as well as in Istanbul, Ankara and 
other cities. 
 
 
---------------- 
HRA Investigates 
---------------- 
 
 
¶3. (C) Husnu Ondul, president of the Human Rights Association 
(HRA), told Poloff February 26 that HRA investigated Ocalan's 
situation at the request of relatives and attorneys.  Ondul 
said he and other HRA officials met for one hour with the 
Chief Public Prosecutor of Bursa, who has authority over the 
Imrali prison.  The Jandarma commander in Gemlik, who 
controls transportation to the island, refused to meet them. 
Ondul noted the close ties between the Jandarma and the 
Turkish General Staff (TGS), and argued that the military is 
blocking access to Ocalan in a deliberate effort to stir 
tension in the Kurdish community.  It is true that the 
Marmara is often subject to high winds during the winter 
months, but the Jandarma could easily guarantee access to 
Ocalan by providing a larger boat.  While the small boat used 
by Ocalan's visitors has been grounded the past three months, 
thousands of Jandarma and prison officials have traveled to 
the island in larger boats.  Ondul said the visitors' boat is 
unsafe for the five-hour trip to Imrali.  The Gemlik Jandarma 
commander February 26 allowed visitors to set sail for Imrali 
for the first time in three months, but the boat was forced 
to turn back, supposedly because of high waves.  Two of 
Ocalan's attorneys told Poloff the boat could have made the 
trip. 
 
 
--------------------------------- 
Official GOT Line Appears Dubious 
--------------------------------- 
 
 
¶4. (C) Kaan Esener, head of the MFA's Department of Council 
of Europe Affairs, insisted in a meeting with Poloff that 
weather was the sole reason for Ocalan's isolation.  He 
acknowledged Poloff's concerns about the demonstrations 
sparked by the situation, and said he spent five days 
arranging the CPT visit in an attempt to lower tensions.  He 
said he believed attorneys and relatives might be able to 
finally visit Ocalan March 5, though he declined to 
elaborate.  However, Inan Ozyildiz, foreign affairs advisor 
to the President, told Poloff separately the weather 
explanation was "silly."  He speculated that the military 
might be concerned about Ocalan passing messages to PKK 
terrorists (Note: According to a press report, one of 
Ocalan's Imrali-bound lawyers was caught February 26 carrying 
PKK-related documents hidden inside a newspaper.  Ocalan 
attorneys deny it.  End Note).  A Danish diplomat told Poloff 
that, according to an AK Party contact, AK Chairman Erdogan 
first learned of the Ocalan situation in mid-February and 
angrily demanded it be resolved.  If so, his demand has been 
studiously ignored. 
 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
State of Emergency Could Return to Southeast 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
 
¶5. (C) Ondul said he is also concerned about press reports 
that the TGS has sent a letter to the Prime Ministry 
recommending that a state of emergency be declared in six 
southeastern provinces in the event of war in Iraq.  He said 
the southeast had been under some form of martial law for 24 
years, and was finally freed when the state of emergency was 
phased out November 30.  A return to curfews, roadblocks and 
intrusive searches could snuff out the people's newfound hope 
and bring back the tensions of the mid-90s.  Although a new 
state of emergency would be tied to a war in Iraq, it could 
easily be extended.  The previous state of emergency was 
introduced as a temporary measure, but was renewed for years 
at four-month intervals. 
 
 
¶6. (C) Ozyildiz and Esener -- as well as Interior Ministry 
Secretary General Nazih Dogan -- asserted they are not aware 
 
SIPDIS 
of a proposal for a war-related state of emergency, while 
acknowledging such a move would not surprise them.  Despite 
concerns about tensions in the southeast, Ozyildiz and Esener 
claimed the Ocalan situation and the possibility of a state 
of emergency are not among the GOT's main concerns at this 
time.  Esener does not believe the Ocalan situation can be 
resolved while so many other high-profile issues are on the 
agenda.  "The government is worried about Iraq and Cyprus. 
The last thing they want to hear about is Ocalan," he averred. 
 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
 
¶7. (C) There is clearly more than weather behind the policy 
of isolating Ocalan.  Speculation has centered on two 
theories: 1) the military wants to prevent the PKK leader 
from delivering messages; and 2) the military wants to 
provoke conflict in order to justify a crackdown.  Both of 
these arguments appear to carry weight with elements of the 
TGS and Jandarma.  The people of Turkey's southeast do not 
trust the government and will fear that any reimposition of a 
state of emergency will mean a crackdown against them.  For 
this reason, it is especially important for the GOT to allow 
Ocalan's visits to resume and lower tensions.  Embassy will 
continue to raise this issue with contacts. 
PEARSON