This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 FRANKFURT 011843 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR GM
SUBJECT: HESSE ELECTIONS COUNTDOWN: CDU CONFIDENT, BUT WILL 
FDP MAKE 5 PERCENT THRESHOLD? 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary.  Hesse state elections will take place 
February 2, 2003.  The current Christian Democratic Union 
(CDU)-Free Democratic Party (FDP) state coalition government 
is hoping the current voter mood against the national SPD- 
Green government will help it win votes.  The CDU is 
optimistic about its chances for victory and the dynamic 
Hesse Minister-President Roland Koch has been campaigning 
vigorously.  It is unlikely the CDU can win an absolute 
majority, however, so would still need the FDP to govern. 
The state FDP, like the national one, is somewhat weak and 
in disarray.  It just squeaked over the 5 percent threshold 
in 1999 with 5.1 percent, but is hoping that a protest vote 
against SPD-Green will help carry it this time.  The state 
Social Democratic Party (SPD) is counting on candidate 
Boekel's strong team and his image as a man of integrity who 
is "close to the people."  Boekel has also been campaigning 
hard but the CDU-FDP still have a 9.4 percent lead over SPD- 
Green.  The Greens are campaigning on core party issues and 
opposition to Frankfurt airport expansion.  The election 
outcome is still too close to call.  Hesse is still a "swing 
state."  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) Hesse state elections will take place February 2, 
2003 and several conventions and strategy meetings have been 
held by the four state parties represented in parliament 
(CDU, SPD, FDP, Green Party).  The Hesse state parliament is 
elected for five years.  Currently, the CDU and FDP have a 
one-seat majority in the 110-member legislature (56:54). 
 
The Hesse CDU: Optimistic 
------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) The CDU, as demonstrated during its November 
convention in Fulda, is optimistic it will be the strongest 
party in the next state assembly.  Our CDU contacts across 
the board give us the same view, particularly in light of 
voter unhappiness with the SPD-Green government nationally. 
The Hesse CDU may, in fact, be overly confident that "the 
election is already won."  Some of our CDU contacts do worry 
that the party's coalition partner, the FDP, may fail to 
make the 5 percent threshold to get into the state 
parliament -- the FDP only achieved 5.1 percent in 1999 - 
but do not see it as a serious danger.  Within the Hesse 
CDU, two campaign strategies are being debated.  One group 
prefers a campaign that is inclusive of the FDP and "pulls 
it along" in a battle for the second vote 
("Zweitstimmenkampagne").  Another group, apparently gaining 
momentum, seeks to win an absolute CDU majority without 
carrying the FDP.  As insider from Koch's State Chancellery 
tell us this latter strategy may be implemented on short 
notice in January, if the polls show it could succeed.  A 
recent poll shows the CDU could win about 46 percent in 
Hesse. 
 
¶4. (SBU) We heard from CDU's Parliamentary Manager Stefan 
Gruettner and members of the caucus that the CDU expects its 
lead in the opinion polls created by "the Berlin effect" 
(i.e. dissatisfaction with Chancellor Schroeder) to continue 
at least until Christmas.  The biggest danger he sees to a 
CDU election victory in Hesse is U.S. action in Iraq before 
the February 2 elections.  In an effort to forestall 
possible voter backlash against the CDU for being too pro- 
U.S. and pro-war, Koch is heating up the rhetoric on the 
dangers of terrorism.  He and his Social Minister Silke 
Lautenschlaeger have been outspoken on the need to have 
vaccines prepared against potential biological weapons. 
"Other nations are preparing smallpox vaccine.  Germany is 
doing nothing," Koch said.  Koch's Interior Ministry is 
repeating terrorism warnings, despite opposition from some 
party colleagues such as Frankfurt Lord Mayor Petra Roth. 
(Comment: As Koch and other CDU officials have told us, the 
CDU plans to push back against SPD-fostered pacifism, unlike 
during last September's national campaign, when Stoiber's 
cautious - indeed timid - response backfired. End Comment.) 
 
¶5. (SBU) In response to an FDP complaint that the CDU has 
given it too little room to maneuver, Gruettner said that 
the FDP misses opportunities.  The Hesse FDP Economics 
Minister Dieter Posch, for example, has said little, while M- 
P Koch has done most of the heavy lifting on economic 
issues. (Note: The FDP has two ministers in Hesse, Economics 
Minister Posch and Minister for Science and Arts Ruth 
Wagner, who is also Deputy Minister President.) 
Gruettner also strongly rejected media speculation that Koch 
would leave politics if he is defeated in February.  "Anyone 
who knows the Minister-President knows this is nonsense," 
Gruettner said.  (Comment:  We agree.  Koch is only in his 
mid-40s, is energetic and ambitious, and has been involved 
in politics since he was 14 years old.  End Comment.) 
 
The SPD: Focus on the Team 
------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Hesse SPD's strategy is to highlight Boekel as 
a competent leader with a good shadow cabinet, rather than 
"Koch bashing" about the Hesse CDU's party financing 
scandal.  "Our big advantage," says SPD Parliamentary 
Manager and shadow Interior Minister Manfred Schaub, "is 
Koch's lack of popularity and the high marks Boekel gets for 
credibility."  The campaign will focus less directly on 
challenging the CDU slogan "SPD-Green Needs Supervision" 
than previously planned.  Instead it will highlight Boekel 
as close to the people and show the SPD's team of experts 
balanced between men and women. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The Hesse SPD is painfully aware of the voter anger 
with the federal government in Berlin that will surely have 
an impact on state elections both in Hesse and Lower Saxony. 
To distinguish himself Chancellor Schroeder and Finance 
Minister Eichel, Boekel has supported the re-introduction of 
a wealth tax that will have a greater impact on high-income 
households and be more socially equitable.  The Hesse SPD 
believes hopes that in the coming weeks, voter distress with 
Berlin will calm down and the FDP will fail to gain the 5 
percent necessary to enter parliament, making an SPD 
election victory in February  possible.  Privately, however, 
party members admit that they need the Green Party to win. 
They hope both the SPD and Green Party will improve on their 
1999 election results.  (Comment: The SPD's Boekel is still 
seen as a bit of a "pale" candidate in comparison with the 
dynamic Koch, although Boekel has appeared more frequently 
in recent weeks on talks shows and in the media to raise his 
profile.  Recent polls show the number of voters who 
recognize Boekel has risen from 27 percent in August to 51 
percent in November.  End Comment.) 
 
The Greens: Will Gain Votes, Oppose Frankfurt Airport 
Expansion 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Most observers across the political spectrum in 
Hesse believe the Greens will gain more votes than the 7.2 
percent they had in 1999.  A recent poll shows they could 
win as much as 10-11 percent in the state.  Under the 
leadership of its young and energetic Caucus Chairman Tarek 
Al Wazir, the party has kept up a relatively high profile. 
The Hesse Greens are expected to pick up votes in south 
Hesse protesting Frankfurt airport expansion, particularly 
in the absence of any other protest party running.  (The 
Hesse Green Party has been very outspoken against Frankfurt 
airport expansion.  Several communities around the airport 
along with environmental groups have filed complaints and 
lawsuits by the hundreds against the potential noise 
increase.  U.S. carriers are in favor of Frankfurt airport 
expansion.)  The Hesse Green party seems to be largely 
unaffected by the present problems of the Schroeder 
government. 
 
¶9. (SBU)  The Hesse Greens have emphasized core issues in 
the campaign: environmental and consumer health issues, 
civil rights and education.  The party is clearly committed 
to a coalition with the SPD.  With the exception of 
Frankfurt airport expansion, which parts of the SPD somewhat 
reluctantly support, the Greens have no major differences 
with the SPD.  The Hesse Greens feel they can turn the SPD 
around to oppose Frankfurt airport expansion.  As the 
party's manager, Dirk Langolf tells us, he is certain the 
SPD-Green coalition will find a way to "smoothly phase out 
airport expansion plans, should we win a victory in 
February." 
 
FDP: In Trouble 
--------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) The mood in the Hesse FDP is worse than it 
appears.  Though the Hesse FDP is not directly affected by 
the "Moellemann factor" it is clearly suffering.  The Hesse 
FDP tends to be right of center and has a strong pro-Jewish 
spin in Hesse.  The legacy of the late Chairman of the 
Jewish Council and FDP member Ignatz Bubis still carries a 
lot of weight.  The Hesse FDP just squeaked over the 
threshold with 5.1 percent in the 1999 state.  The FDP hopes 
that the current public mood against the national SPD-Green 
government will win it some protest votes in February.  A 
recent poll shows they could get 6 percent in the state. 
 
¶11. (SBU) The Hesse FDP is clearly disappointed with its CDU 
coalition partner.  It feels it never received credit for 
reviving Koch's political career in the wake of the Hesse 
CDU financing scandal.  (Koch nearly resigned in 2000 when 
the scandal was at its peak.)  The Hesse FDP tends not to 
recognize its own weaknesses.  Only the rebellious youth 
wing of the party has the courage to criticize Hesse 
Economics Minister Posch and Minister for Science and Arts 
Ruth Wagner for a poor public profile. 
 
Prediction: CDU and Greens Will Gain Votes in February, but 
Future Coalition Still Open 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) At this time we predict there will be two parties 
gaining votes in Hesse on election day February 2: the CDU 
and the Greens.  Whether the Hesse government will be CDU- 
FDP or SPD-Green is still open.  We believe, however, than 
an absolute majority for the CDU is unlikely so the CDU 
still needs the FDP.  The FDP needs to get over the 5 
percent threshold for the coalition to succeed.  Hesse can 
still be considered a classic swing state.  We believe the 
current CDU-FDP coalition has a slight edge, especially if 
the prevailing mood of dissatisfaction with the Schroeder 
government continues.  A recent poll shows CDU-FDP has a 9.4 
percent lead over SPD-Green. 
 
¶13.  This message was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
 
BODDE