This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 002101 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, DRL, PRM; NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958:   DECL:  11-07-2002 
TAGS: PGOV PREF PHUM PTER EAID CE LTTE
SUBJECT:  Voting with their feet on the peace process, 
returns by displaced persons spike up 
 
Refs:  (A) Colombo 2086; (B) Colombo 1619 
 
(U) Classified by Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of 
Mission.  Reasons 1.5 (b, d). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Returns of Internally Displaced 
Persons (IDPs) to points of origin in Sri Lanka have 
surged, with a large percentage of the 213,000 total 
returns this year transiting in the past eight weeks 
alone.  Most of the returns are to points in Jaffna, but 
many have returned to the Tiger-controlled Wanni region. 
The upward trend seems closely entwined with growth of 
confidence in the peace process.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U) There has been a surge in returns of IDPs to 
their points of origin in Sri Lanka.  From early 
September to November 1, there have been 86,000 IDP 
returnees, according to UNHCR.  Before September, there 
had been 127,000 returns since the year began.  The 
grand total for 2002 is 213,000.  UNHCR reports that it 
expects the numbers of returns to climb significantly 
further in November. 
 
¶3.  (U) More than half of the returnees have transited 
to points in Jaffna District.  About a third of the 
returnees have gone to points in Mullaitivu and 
Kilinochchi Districts, which are under the control of 
the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).  A much 
smaller group of returnees has gone back to Mannar 
District in the north and Trincomalee District in the 
east, which are both under a patchwork of government and 
LTTE control. 
 
¶4.  (U) UNHCR reports that there remain about 600,000 
IDPs in Sri Lanka.  Most of these are in camps scattered 
throughout the country, but some are staying with family 
members.  Most IDPs are Tamils, as are the vast majority 
of returnees.  Very few of the Muslim IDPs ejected from 
Jaffna in the early 1990s by the LTTE have returned. 
UNHCR also reports that only a small handful of the 
approximately 100,000 refugees in India have returned. 
In addition, there is no sign that large numbers of the 
estimated 750,000 Tamil expatriates who left since the 
war began in 1983 have returned.  (Note:  Many of these 
Tamils settled in Canada, Australia, the UK, and 
elsewhere in Europe.  A good percentage are 
professionals.) 
 
¶5.  (C) The recent surge in returns seems directly 
linked with positive news on the peace track. 
Commenting along such lines, N. Raviraj, a Tamil 
National Alliance (TNA) MP from Jaffna, told us that the 
returnees he has met have expressed optimism that the 
peace process was here to stay.  (Note:  Raviraj's war- 
torn home area of Chavakachcheri has received many 
returnees.)  This sense of optimism has sharply 
increased with the start of peace talks between the 
government and the LTTE in mid-September.  Raviraj said 
he expected that the returns would continue to grow 
given the positive coverage generated by the second 
session of peace talks (See Ref A). 
 
¶6.  (C) Queried about the large number of returns to 
LTTE areas, Raviraj noted that the choice of many 
returnees to go there probably had to do with the growth 
of confidence in the ongoing ceasefire.  (Note:  Areas 
now controlled by the LTTE in the north were the site of 
frequent and often large-scale fighting.)  He did not 
think it had anything to do with a spurt in support for 
the LTTE.  Raviraj related that the LTTE was trying to 
be as helpful as possible to the returnees by offering 
them some assistance, as well as land to farm.  He 
noted, however, that many of the returnees were very 
poor, barely scratching out an existence. 
 
¶7.  (C) COMMENT:  The UNHCR has classified the vast 
majority of the returnees as "spontaneous," i.e., they 
just got up and left without much in the way of support 
from the government or anyone else.  The UNHCR, in fact, 
has basically advised IDPs to stay put until more 
landmines are pulled from the ground and the peace 
process creates an even more settled situation.  The 
fact that the returnees are going back under such 
conditions -- and despite the UN's advice -- is a sign 
of the high degree of enthusiasm the peace process has 
stimulated.  Further progress on the peace track could 
trigger a veritable stampede of returnees.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶8.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
WILLS