This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 004735 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        ROME  04735  01 OF 03  301506Z 
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA FOR CHARGE D'AFFAIRES HULL AND USAID 
ACTING DIRECTOR PARK 
USDA/FAS NAIROBI FOR FRED KESSEL 
STATE FOR ACTING A/S IO, A/S PRM DEWEY, AF AND EA 
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN AND RTILLSWORTH 
USAID FOR A/USAID NATSIOS, AA/DCHA WINTER AND D/FFP LANDIS 
NSC FOR JDWORKEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR EU WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIAN DROUGHT - SUSTANTIVE FOOD DEFICITS 
FORSEEN 
 
REF: (A) ADDIS ABABA 3199, (B) ADDIS ABABA 3111 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. USMISSION/ROME HUMANITARIAN ATTACHE VISITED ETHIOPIA 
SEPTEMBER 16-20, AND TRAVELED IN DROUGHT AFFECTED WOREDAS OF 
EAST AND WEST HARARGE REGION. ASSESSMENTS OF THIS AREA, IN 
ADDITION TO TIGRAY, WOLLO AND THE SOUTHERN REGION - SHOW A 
SERIOUS EMERGENCY SITUATION DEVELOPING AS THE MAJOR (MEHER) 
CROP RAINS DRAW TO A CLOSE. CROP LOSSES ARE WIDESPREAD, 
PARTICULARLY IN ETHIOPIA'S MIDLANDS AND LOWLANDS IN THE 
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AREAS. 
MANY VULNERABLE GROUPS, PARTICULARLY CHILDREN, WILL REQUIRE 
CONTINUING FOOD AND NON-FOOD SUPPORT TO MEET THEIR BASIC 
NEEDS, PARTICULARLY IN 2003. END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        ROME  04735  01 OF 03  301506Z 
BACKGROUND - "DOES THE ROAD LEAD UP HILL ALL THE WAY? YES, 
TO THE VERY END." 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶2. USMISSION/ROME HUMANITARIAN ATTACHE TIM LAVELLE VISITED 
ETHIOPIA SEPTEMBER 16-20, 2002, AND TRAVELED WITH DISASTER 
PREVENTION AND PREPAREDNESS (DPCC) COMMISSIONER SIMON 
MECHALE, USAID ETHIOPIA'S TIM SHORTLEY, AND WORLD FOOD 
PROGRAM STAFF (THE TRIP'S ABLE FACILITATOR) VIA VEHICLE AND 
ETHIOPIAN ARMY-PROVIDED HELICOPTER THROUGH THE HIGHLANDS, 
MIDLANDS AND LOWLANDS OF EAST AND WEST HARARGE, WHERE AN 
ESTIMATED 2 MILLION PEOPLE HAVE BEEN SERIOUSLY AFFECTED THIS 
YEAR BY SERIOUS DROUGHT (REF A). 
 
¶3. ETHIOPIA IS BIGGER THAN FRANCE AND SPAIN COMBINED, AND 
WITH AROUND 65 MILLION, HAS THE THIRD LARGEST POPULATION IN 
AFRICA. EIGHTY-FIVE PERCENT OF THE POPULATION LIVE IN RURAL 
AREAS. ITS GDP PER CAPITA IS USD 100. A MAJOR FEATURE OF THE 
CLIMATE IS THE UNRELIABLE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL. ETHIOPIA 
SUFFERED TWO LARGE-SCALE, DROUGHT-INDUCED FAMINES IN RECENT 
TIMES (1973/74 AND 1983/84), AND, THANKS TO MASSIVE DONOR 
SUPPORT, SUCCESSFULLY AVERTED FAMINE IN 1999/2000. 
 
¶4. ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE COUNTRY'S TRADITIONAL DROUGHT- 
AFFECTED POPULATIONS LIVE IN THREE REGIONS: TIGRAY, WOLLO 
AND HARARGE. SINCE THE 1983-84 FAMINE, ETHIOPIA HAS RECEIVED 
AN ANNUAL AVERAGE LEVEL OF 700,000 MTS OF FOOD AID, WHICH 
PRESENTLY MEETS APPROXIMATELY 15 PERCENT OF THE COUNTRY'S 
FOOD NEEDS. AN ESTIMATED 4 TO 5 MILLION PEOPLE IN ETHIOPIA 
REQUIRE RELIEF ASSISTANCE IN ANY GIVEN YEAR IRRESPECTIVE OF 
CLIMATIC SHOCKS. 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        ROME  04735  01 OF 03  301506Z 
 
¶5. IN EARLY 2002, THE ETHIOPIAN GOVERNMENT (GFDRE) APPEALED 
FOR SOME 557,000 TONS OF FOOD ASSISTANCE FOR UP TO 5 MILLION 
PERSONS WHO WERE ADJUDGED UNABLE TO MEET THEIR FOOD 
CONSUMPTION REQUIREMENTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE YEAR. 
THROUGH MID-SEPTEMBER, THE TOTAL RESPONSE (INCLUDING A GFDRE 
INPUT OF 45,000 TONS) EQUALED 392,000 TONS (70 PERCENT). 
PRESENT ESTIMATES ARE THAT THE MAIN SEASON FOOD CROP 
PRODUCTION WILL FALL BY A RANGE OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT AS 
COMPARED TO THE LAST FOUR-YEAR AVERAGE. IT IS NOTED THAT THE 
PRICE OF MAIZE (A BASIC STAPLE) HAS RISEN TO ADDIS ABABA BY 
66 PERCENT OVER THE PAST FIVE MONTHS. 
 
¶6. INDEPENDENT OF THE PRESENTLY UNFOLDING DROUGHT, 1998-2000 
WAR-INDUCED POPULATION DISPLACEMENTS, AND LIMITED PURCHASING 
POWER IN MANY PARTS OF THE COUNTRY, CONSIDER: 
 
-APPROXIMATELY ONE-FIFTH OF ETHIOPIAN CHILDREN DIE BEFORE 
REACHING THEIR 5TH BIRTHDAY; 
 
-ETHIOPIA'S AGROECOSYSTEMS ARE AFFLICTED BY CHRONIC 
ECOLOGICAL PROBLEMS. EROSION IS AN EVER-PRESENT THREAT 
PARTICULARLY TO FARMERS IN THE HIGHLANDS. SOIL QUALITY AND 
LAND PRODUCTIVITY IS LOW; CEREAL YIELDS STAGNATED BETWEEN 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTO8797 
 
PAGE 01        ROME  04735  02 OF 03  301506Z 
ACTION IO-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AF-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  CIAE-00  COME-00 
      CTME-00  USNW-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00  EB-00    EUR-00   E-00 
      UTED-00  FDRE-01  VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   VCE-00   M-00 
      DCP-01   NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OES-01   OIC-02   OMB-01   IRM-00 
      STR-00   TEST-00  TRSE-00  USIE-00  EPAE-00  PRM-00   SAS-00 
        /006W 
                  ------------------EF0B1B  301526Z /38 
P 301436Z SEP 02 
FM AMEMBASSY ROME 
TO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY 
SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6072 
USDA FAS WASHDC PRIORITY 2303 
INFO AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY ASMARA 
AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 
USEU BRUSSELS 2830 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
USMISSION GENEVA 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 03 ROME 004735 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        ROME  04735  02 OF 03  301506Z 
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA FOR CHARGE D'AFFAIRES HULL AND USAID 
ACTING DIRECTOR PARK 
USDA/FAS NAIROBI FOR FRED KESSEL 
STATE FOR ACTING A/S IO, A/S PRM DEWEY, AF AND EA 
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN AND RTILLSWORTH 
USAID FOR A/USAID NATSIOS, AA/DCHA WINTER AND D/FFP LANDIS 
NSC FOR JDWORKEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR EU WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIAN DROUGHT - SUSTANTIVE FOOD DEFICITS 
FORSEEN 
 
1980-1997 AT AROUND 1.2 TONS PER HECTARE. AGRICULTURAL 
EXTENSION IS ENTIRELY IN THE HANDS OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR AND 
FARMERS' PARTICIPATION IS LIMITED; 
-ABOUT THREE GENERATIONS AGO, ETHIOPIA WAS 50 PERCENT 
FOREST. THE LEVEL TODAY IS LESS THAN FIVE PERCENT; 
 
-A RECENT ASSESSMENT ON FOOD SECURITY CONCLUDED THAT 
NUTRITIONAL STANDARDS HAVE FALLEN STEADILY OVER THE PAST 15 
YEARS. IN NORMAL YEARS, 40 PERCENT OF RURAL HOUSEHOLDS DO 
NOT PRODUCE ENOUGH FOOD OR INCOME TO MEET THEIR BASIC 
NUTRITIONAL NEEDS. FAO ESTIMATES THAT 49 PERCENT OF 
ETHIOPIA'S POPULATION IS UNDERNOURISHED; 
 
-FOR CHILDREN UNDER 6, ALMOST TWO THIRDS ARE ESTIMATED TO 
SUFFER FROM STUNTING, AND OVER 10 PERCENT FROM WASTING; 
 
-WHILE MANY OF ETHIOPIA'S ECONOMIC PROBLEMS MAY BE 
ATTRIBUTED TO THE DISASTROUS ECONOMIC LEGACY OF THE DERGUE 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        ROME  04735  02 OF 03  301506Z 
PERIOD (1974-1991), THESE PROBLEMS WERE WITHOUT DOUBT 
EXACERBATED BY THE ETHIOPIA-ERITREA 1998-2000 WAR; 
 
-ETHIOPIA HAS THE THIRD LARGEST NUMBER OF HIV/AIDS POSITIVE 
PEOPLE IN THE WORLD - OVER 3 MILLION AFFECTED, 250,000 ARE 
CHILDREN UNDER-FIVE AND THERE ARE 1 MILLION HIV/AIDS 
ORPHANS; 
 
-THE ADULT LITERACY RATE IS THIRTY-FIVE PERCENT. AN 
ESTIMATED TWENTY-FOUR PERCENT OF THE POPULATION HAS ACCESS 
TO SAFE DRINKING WATER. 
 
----------------------- 
WHERE WE ARE AT PRESENT 
----------------------- 
 
¶7. DURING 1999/2000, ETHIOPIA EXPERIENCED PROBABLY THE WORST 
DROUGHT SINCE 1983/84. TRADITIONAL COPING MECHANISMS WERE 
ERODED; THE LOSS OF FARM ANIMALS IN PARTICULAR WAS VERY 
HIGH, AND VIRTUALLY ENSURED THAT RECOVERY FROM THE 1999-2000 
DROUGHT WOULD BE LONG AND DIFFICULT. MOREOVER, A RECENT 
STUDY OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 100 YEARS IN THE HORN OF 
AFRICA HAS REVEALED THAT SERIOUS DROUGHTS OCCURRED ON 
AVERAGE ONCE EVERY FIVE YEARS. DURING THE PAST DECADE, 
HOWEVER, THE FREQUENCY OF WIDESPREAD DROUGHTS HAS 
ACCELERATED TO ONCE EVERY 2-3 YEARS. GIVEN POOR HARVESTS 
THROUGHOUT 2002 IN THE DROUGHT-PRONE PARTS OF ETHIOPIA, DPPC 
HAS INCREASED ITS BENEFICIARY NUMBERS TO 7 MILLION FOR 
SEPTEMBER AND THIS NUMBER COULD POSSIBLY ESCALATE TO A PEAK 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        ROME  04735  02 OF 03  301506Z 
OF 10 TO 14 MILLION IN THE "HUNGRY SEASON" BETWEEN FEBRUARY 
AND JUNE, 2003. 
 
------------------------------- 
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 
------------------------------- 
 
¶8. GFDRE AND DONORS WOULD BE BETTER SERVED TO TAKE INTO 
ACCOUNT ETHIOPIA'S STRUCTURAL FOOD DEFICIT (APPROXIMATELY 
700,000 MTS) AND FOCUS ON IMPROVING THE NATIONAL CAPACITY TO 
IMPORT FOOD ON TIME TO WHERE IT IS NEEDED. GFDRE NEEDS TO BE 
STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO DEVELOP A TRANSITIONAL FRAMEWORK TO 
MEET THE NEEDS OF ITS FOUR TO FIVE MILLION CHRONICALLY FOOD 
INSECURE, INVOLVING BOTH ASSET BUILDING AND ACCUMULATION FOR 
THIS TARGET POPULATION. 
 
¶9. RATHER THAN WAITING FOR THE ANNUAL FAO/WFP CROP 
ASSESSMENT MISSION REPORT TO BE ISSUED IN JANUARY 2003, 
THERE SHOULD BE AN IMMEDIATE PLEDGING AND DISPATCH OF 
SIGNIFICANT QUANTITIES OF FOOD AID. USAID'S DECISION TO 
COMMIT AN ADDITIONAL 100,000 TONS OF TITLE II FOOD AID 
(ANNOUNCED ON SEPTEMBER 26) IS INDEED TIMELY. FOOD AID FROM 
ALL DONORS SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR BOTH FOR 
IMMEDIATE DISTRIBUTION AND TO PROTECT THE PIPELINE AT THE 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTO8802 
 
PAGE 01        ROME  04735  03 OF 03  301506Z 
ACTION IO-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AF-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  CIAE-00  COME-00 
      CTME-00  USNW-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00  EB-00    EUR-00   E-00 
      UTED-00  FDRE-01  VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   VCE-00   M-00 
      DCP-01   NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OES-01   OIC-02   OMB-01   IRM-00 
      STR-00   TEST-00  TRSE-00  USIE-00  EPAE-00  PRM-00   SAS-00 
        /006W 
                  ------------------EF0B83  301527Z /38 
P 301436Z SEP 02 
FM AMEMBASSY ROME 
TO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY 
SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6073 
USDA FAS WASHDC PRIORITY 2304 
INFO AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY ASMARA 
AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 
USEU BRUSSELS 2831 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
USMISSION GENEVA 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 03 ROME 004735 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME 
 
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA FOR CHARGE D'AFFAIRES HULL AND USAID 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        ROME  04735  03 OF 03  301506Z 
ACTING DIRECTOR PARK 
USDA/FAS NAIROBI FOR FRED KESSEL 
STATE FOR ACTING A/S IO, A/S PRM DEWEY, AF AND EA 
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN AND RTILLSWORTH 
USAID FOR A/USAID NATSIOS, AA/DCHA WINTER AND D/FFP LANDIS 
NSC FOR JDWORKEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR EU WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIAN DROUGHT - SUSTANTIVE FOOD DEFICITS 
FORSEEN 
 
START OF 2003. 
¶10. DONORS SHOULD ENSURE THAT IMPORT TAXES ON GRAINS 
INCLUDING WHEAT FLOUR ARE RATCHETED DOWN TO MINIMAL LEVELS 
OR ZERO. THE EXAMPLE OF BANGLADESH IN THE IMMEDIATE 
AFTERMATH OF THE 1998 "WORST FLOOD OF THE CENTURY" - IN 
ENCOURAGING LARGE-SCALE GRAIN IMPORTS BY THE PRIVATE SECTOR 
(THROUGH REDUCTION OF IMPORT SURCHARGES AND NON-INTERFERENCE 
WITH PRIVATE SECTOR TRADE) - WENT A LONG WAY IN STABILIZING 
FOOD GRAIN MARKETS AND GREATLY AIDED THAT COUNTRY'S FOOD 
SECURITY AT A CRITICAL TIME. 
 
¶11. A POLICY DIALOGUE NEEDS TO ENSUE WITH THE GFDRE ON 
POSSIBLE CEREAL PRICE STABILIZATION INTERVENTIONS AND 
POLICIES. EMBASSY/USAID SHOULD REVIEW POSSIBLE TITLE I, FOOD 
FOR PROGRESS, AND GSM OPTIONS WITH USDA/FAS. 
 
¶12. ETHIOPIA NEEDS TO PRIORITIZE EFFORTS WITHIN ITS 
BOUNDARIES RELATED TO THE MOVEMENT OF FOOD FROM AREAS WITH 
SURPLUSES TO THOSE WITH SHORTAGES. 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        ROME  04735  03 OF 03  301506Z 
 
¶13. THERE IS A COMPELLING NEED TO ADDRESS MORE DIRECTLY THE 
PROBLEMS OF UNDER-NUTRITION IN INFANTS AND EXPECTANT 
MOTHERS. UNLIKE OTHER COUNTRIES SUCH AS INDIA, ETHIOPIA HAS 
NO PROGRAM THAT DELIVERS A COMBINATION OF SERVICES (FOOD 
SUPPLEMENTS, MICRO-NUTRIENTS, HEALTH INPUTS, IMMUNIZATIONS, 
ETC.) TARGETED TO THE MOST NUTRITIONALLY VULNERABLE GROUPS 
IN THE POPULATION - INFANTS AND PREGNANT WOMEN. THIS IS AN 
AREA WFP AND ITS UN AGENCIES PARTNERS MIGHT PROFITABLY 
EXPLORE. 
 
¶14. THE LONG-TERM VALUE OF EDUCATION, PARTICULARLY FOR 
GIRLS, TO IMPROVED NUTRITION FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS CANNOT 
BE OVERSTATED. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE GLOBAL FOOD FOR 
EDUCATION INITIATIVE SHOULD BE SYSTEMATICALLY RATCHETED UP. 
WFP AND OTHER UN AGENCIES SHOULD AGGRESSIVELY PURSUE 
ADDITIONAL PARTNERSHIPS AND COMPLEMENTARY FUNDING TO COVER 
NON-FOOD COSTS AND ENSURE HIGH-QUALITY EDUCATION. 
 
¶15. THE RAPID SPREAD OF HIV/AIDS IS DANGEROUSLY UNDERMINING 
DEVELOPMENTAL GAINS THROUGHOUT ETHIOPIA, INCREASINGLY 
CAUSING SEVERE LABOR AND ECONOMIC CONSTRAINTS THAT DIRECTLY 
DISRUPT AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES. BOTH WFP AND THE UN NEED TO 
QUICKLY INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACTIVITIES TO STRENGTHEN 
HIV/AIDS INFORMATION CAMPAIGNS, CARE FOR ORPHANS, AND 
TRAINING FOR SERVICE PROVIDERS TO BETTER MANAGE THE 
EPIDEMIC. 
 
¶16. SPECIAL EFFORTS (INCLUDING ENGAGING THE INTERNATIONAL 
FEDERATION OF THE RED CROSS/GENEVA) NEED TO BE TAKEN TO 
REVITALIZE THE ETHIOPIAN RED CROSS WHICH PRESENTLY PLAYS A 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        ROME  04735  03 OF 03  301506Z 
MARGINAL ROLE IN EMERGENCY PROGRAM RESPONSE. 
 
¶17. WFP AND THE UN AGENCIES SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF 
EMERGENCY FOOD DELIVERIES (WHERE LARGE NUMBERS OF 
BENEFICIARIES OFTEN WAIT FOR HOURS TO RECEIVE THEIR RATION) 
TO IMPART MOTHER-CHILD CARE HEALTH TRAINING AND NUTRITION 
EDUCATION MESSAGES, HIV/AIDS AWARENESS, ETC. 
 
¶18. FINALLY, WFP AND ITS NON-GOVERNMENTAL PARTNERS SHOULD 
IMMEDIATELY INITIATE SUPPLEMENTARY AND THERAPEUTIC FEEDING 
IN THE WORST AFFECTED AREAS OF WEST HARARGE. #HALL 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
> 
 2002ROME04735 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED