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2002HANOI01760 - CONFIDENTIAL
 
 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5890

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FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6994
INFO AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH 
AMEMBASSY VIENTIANE 
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 001760 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/12 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS ECON PREL VM DPOL
SUBJECT: LEADERSHIP RUMBLINGS 
 
REF:  HANOI 1666 
 
¶1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR RAYMOND BURGHARDT, 
REASON: 1.5 (D) 
 
¶2. (C)  SUMMARY.  THE LEADERSHIP TURNOVER AT THE 11TH 
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY (NA) COULD BE BROADER THAN EARLIER 
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PAGE 02        HANOI  01760  01 OF 02  120956Z 
EXPECTED AS THE PARTY SEEKS TO DEMONSTRATE ITS 
VIGILANCE AGAINST CORRUPTION.  UNDER ONE SCENARIO, THE 
NA CHAIRMAN COULD BE FORCED OUT AND REPLACED BY CURRENT 
PRIME MINISTER KHAI, WHILE HCMC CHIEF TRIET TAKES OVER 
THE TOP GOVERNMENT JOB.  SENIOR LEVEL CHANGES AT THE 
MINISTRY OF PUBLIC SECURITY, INCLUDING POSSIBLY THE 66- 
YEAR OLD MINISTER, ARE ALSO LIKELY.  NO FACTS ARE YET 
AVAILABLE, BUT THE VIVID RUMOR MILL IS A RESULT OF THE 
CLOSED NATURE OF THIS SOCIETY AS WELL AS AN INDICATION 
OF AT LEAST SOME ELITE DISSATISFACTION WITH PERCEIVED 
CORRUPT ACTIVITIES OF SOME SENIOR LEADERS. MAJOR POLICY 
SHIFTS THAT WOULD AFFECT US INTERESTS REMAIN UNLIKELY 
EVEN UNDER SUCH SCENARIOS. END SUMMARY. 
 
¶3.  (C)  ACCORDING TO NOTED PRO-DEMOCRACY AND ANTI- 
CORRUPTION ACTIVIST DR. NGUYEN THANH GIANG (PLEASE 
PROTECT), THE FALLOUT FROM THE NAM CAM CORRUPTION CASE 
CONTINUES TO AFFECT LAST-MINUTE DECISION-MAKING AT THE 
ONGOING 6TH PARTY PLENUM IN PREPARATION FOR THE OPENING 
OF THE 11TH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY (REFTEL), WHICH HAS NOW 
BEEN RESCHEDULED TO BEGIN ON JULY 17.  GIANG TOLD POL/C 
AND POLOFF ON JULY 12 THAT HE BELIEVES PERSONNEL SHIFTS 
COULD BE EVEN MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. 
HIS SOURCES TELL HIM THAT NATIONAL ASSEMBLY CHAIRMAN 
NGUYEN VAN AN HAS RECENTLY BEEN ACCUSED OF ACCEPTING 
BRIBES FROM NAM CAM SEVERAL YEARS AGO IN HIS CAPACITY AS CHIEF 
OF THE PARTY'S PERSONNEL AND ORGANIZATION COMMISSION; 
AN MAY NOW BE FORCED TO STEP DOWN, CONTRARY TO EARLIER 
PREDICTIONS. 
 
¶4.  (C)  GIANG SAID THAT, UNDER THIS SCENARIO, PRIME 
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PAGE 03        HANOI  01760  01 OF 02  120956Z 
MINISTER PHAN VAN KHAI -- PREDICTED BY MOST OBSERVERS 
TO REMAIN IN OFFICE, BUT ONLY FOR 1-2 MORE YEARS -- 
WOULD MOVE OVER TO TAKE AN'S PLACE.  GIANG NOTED THAT 
KHAI'S OWN REPUTATION IS INCREASINGLY SOILED BY THE 
ACTIVITIES OF KHAI'S SON, A RUMOR WE HAVE ALSO HEARD 
FROM OTHER HANOI RESIDENTS.  WIVES OF AT LEAST FIVE 
PROMINENT SENIOR PARTY FIGURES, INCLUDING AN, KHAI, 
FORMER PRIME MINISTER VO VAN KIET, AND MPS' HUONG, ARE 
ALSO ALLEGED TO HAVE HAD LINKS WITH NAM CAM DIRECTLY OR 
INDIRECTLY, GIANG ADDED. 
 
¶5.  (C)  IF KHAI MOVES TO THE NA, GIANG PREDICTED THAT 
HO CHI MINH CITY PARTY CHIEF NGUYEN MINH TRIET WOULD 
TAKE OVER AS PRIME MINISTER.  ALTHOUGH MANY OBSERVERS 
HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE NAM CAM CASE WOULD HURT TRIET 
GIVEN THE HCMC NEXUS, GIANG STRESSED THAT NAM CAM'S 
MOST NOTORIOUS ACTIVITIES TOOK PLACE BEFORE TRIET MOVED 
TO HCMC, AND THAT HIS ARREST ACTUALLY HAPPENED ON 
TRIET'S WATCH.  ALLEGATIONS OF CORRUPTION AGAINST THE 
OTHER MAIN CONTENDER FOR THE PM SLOT, DEPUTY PRIME 
MINISTER NGUYEN TAN DUNG, HAVE HURT THE LATTER'S 
CHANCES, GIANG NOTED. 
 
¶6.  (C)  GIANG ALSO EXPRESSED CERTAINTY THAT MINISTER 
OF PUBLIC SECURITY LT. GENERAL LE MINH HUONG WOULD ALSO 
BE FORCED TO RETIRE DUE TO THE NAM CAM CASE, ALONG WITH 
ONE OR TWO DEPUTY MINISTERS.  (NOTE:  ADDITIONALLY, 
GENERAL HUONG MAY HAVE HEALTH PROBLEMS; HE SEEMED 
NOTABLY PALSIED DURING AMBASSADOR'S MAY 14 MEETING WITH 
HIM.  END NOTE)  HE PREDICTED THAT HUONG'S REPLACEMENT 
WOULD BE POLITBURO SECRETARIAT MEMBER TRUONG VINH 
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PAGE 04        HANOI  01760  01 OF 02  120956Z 
TRONG.  SEPARATELY, A SENIOR EDITOR AT QUAN DOI NHAN 
DAN (PEOPLE'S ARMY) HAD PREDICTED TO POL/C ON JULY 4 
THAT AN "OUTSIDER" WOULD MOVE IN TO TAKE OVER MPS AS 
ONE OF THE "SURPRISES" AT THIS YEAR'S NA OPENING 
SESSION. 
 
¶7.  (C)  OTHER SOURCES HAVE SPECULATED THAT CURRENT 
FOREIGN MINISTER NGUYEN DY NIEN MAY MOVE TO THE NA AS 
VICE CHAIRMAN, WITH CURRENT MINISTER OF TRADE VU KHOAN 
TAKING OVER THE FOREIGN AFFAIRS PORTFOLIO AS WELL AS 
THE DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER SLOT TO BE VACATED BY NGUYEN 
MANH CAM. 
 
¶8.  (C)  COMMENT:  IN A CLOSED SOCIETY LIKE VIETNAM'S, 
THE RUMOR MILL IS HARD AT WORK TRYING TO FIGURE OUT 
WHAT IS GOING ON BEHIND THE OPAQUE WALLS OF THE 
RECLUSIVE COMMUNIST PARTY.  WHILE THE PARTY SEEKS TO 
MAKE A GOOD SHOW OF GOING AFTER CORRUPT OFFICIALS, 
THESE KIND OF RUMORS INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME WELL- 
CONNECTED HANOI RESIDENTS ARE DISSATISFIED WITH MANY IN 
THE LEADERSHIP AND BELIEVE CORRUPTION TO REACH THE VERY 
TOP.  BARRING A FULL HOUSE-CLEANING -- WHICH REMAINS 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5891 
 
PAGE 01        HANOI  01760  02 OF 02  120956Z 
ACTION EAP-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  COME-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00 
      DS-00    EB-00    FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00 
      VCE-00   NSAE-00  TRSE-00  DSCC-00  DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00 
        /002W 
                  ------------------CA381F  120957Z /38 
R 120950Z JUL 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6995 
INFO AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH 
AMEMBASSY VIENTIANE 
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HANOI 001760 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV 
 
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY -- IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE 
PARTY TO RESTORE CONFIDENCE THAT IT IS MOVING 
EFFECTIVELY AGAINST CORRUPT OFFICIALS.  THE PARTY WILL 
ALSO NEED TO WALK A FINE LINE IN ORDER TO PROJECT AN 
IMAGE OF STABILITY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SHUFFLING THE 
LEADERSHIP DECK TO ADDRESS SUCH CONCERNS.  THE BOTTOM 
LINE FOR US INTERESTS REMAINS THAT NO COMBINATION OF 
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PAGE 02        HANOI  01760  02 OF 02  120956Z 
LEADERSHIP SHIFTS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN MAJOR 
DEVIATIONS BY THE PARTY AND GVN FROM THE CURRENT 
CAUTIOUSLY PRO-DEVELOPMENTAL AND PRO-ECONOMIC REFORM 
PATH. 
BURGHARDT 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL