This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000915 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PTER MCAP PGOV NP
SUBJECT: PRACHANDA DECLARES A CEASEFIRE AFTER ATTACK IN 
ROLPA 
 
REF: A. (A) KATHMANDU 906 
     ¶B. (B) KATHMANDU 872 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  (SBU) An e-mail to evening newspapers purportedly from 
Maoist supremo Prachanda unilaterally declared a one-month 
ceasefire starting June 15.  There has been no official 
reaction yet from the Government of Nepal (GON) to the offer. 
 Security forces continue to search for survivors of the May 
7 Maoist atack on a combined Army/Police outpost in Gam, 
Rolpa.  Prachanda's announcement, coinciding with the Prime 
Minister's highly publicized visit to the U.S., appears to a 
clever, well-calculated ploy to drive a wedge between the GON 
and other political parties before an all-party meeting May 
¶10.  End summary. 
 
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CEASEFIRE BY E-MAIL 
--------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Late May 9 Nepali evening newspapers received an 
e-mail purportedly from Maoist leader Prachanda announcing a 
one-month unilateral ceasefire beginning May 15.  An 
unofficial translation of the e-mail follows below. 
 
Begin text of e-mail: 
 
The killers of brothers, who have attained power through 
tyranny, have now gone begging to the American Imperialists. 
They are committed to crushing the evolving political forum 
by calling foreign military forces into the country.  The 
American Imperialists are openly moving ahead to establish a 
military base in Nepal, as they have done in Afghanistan and 
Central Asia.  This establishment will be used for a 
long-term strategy to surround China and India, and therefore 
America is openly indicating they support these political 
parties.  George Bush has called his adopted son Sher Bahadur 
Deuba to America to instruct him as a Master and to give 
military support.  The American military team that came to 
Nepal has recommended to increase the Royal Nepal Army to 
200,000, establish an air force, and make modern helicopters 
and military equipment available.  This recommendation shows 
that America is trying to fulfill its self-interest by using 
the Gyanendra/Deuba group and is trying to make Nepal like 
Vietnam. 
 
Due to this grand design, the Nepali Army has declared a 
reward on the Maoists' head.  All other political parties 
being aware of this situation have called on the government 
for poltical dialogue to solve the existing problem.  In this 
regard all those in Parliament and outside should come 
forward to go against the Royal Nepal Army.  If this is the 
situation, we will declare a joint effort to fight against 
these traitors. 
 
Because the 25 of May 2002 is the end of the six months of 
emergency, and because of the requests of our friends to have 
working flexibility and a strategic commitment on our side 
for future political possibilities and our revolutionary 
possibilities, we have declared a ceasefire from our side 
from 15th May 2002 for the period of one month.  If during 
this period there is suppression on all grounds and 
anti-national activities are conducted, we will launch a 
massive war. 
 
Prachanda 
Chairman 
NCP (Maoist) 
8th May 2002 
End text. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  As of COB May 9, the Government of Nepal (GON) had 
no official reaction to the statement.  The Public Affairs 
Officer for the Royal Nepal Army (RNA) said he had not yet 
even seen the e-mail--although he had heard about it--but 
volunteered his own unofficial opinion that the offer was not 
sincere and the GON would not be taken in by it.  The RNA has 
the Maoists on the run, he posited; the insurgents are 
wearing out.  They would only use the ceasefire as a 
"respite" to regroup and consolidate their depleted strength. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Prachanda's offer follows closely on a May 1 
announcement that the Maoists would welcome dialogue (Ref B) 
and falls just the day before an all-party mass meeting and 
rally in the capital May 10.  Organizers are expecting a 
large turnout for the rally, which will focus on calls for an 
end to violence.  Student wings of the various parties plan 
to hold a peace march to coincide with the rally.  The 
all-party meeting was expected to take up for consideration 
Prachanda's call for dialogue, among other matters.  The 
meeting, like Prachanda's annoucement, coincides with the 
high-profile visit of Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba to 
the U.S.-- a visit that has generated substantial and often 
erroneous or unrealistic speculation regarding possible U.S. 
military assistance to the GON to defeat the insurgents. 
Before leaving, Deuba had publicly rejected dialogue without 
an accompanying agreement from the Maoists to lay down their 
arms. 
 
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GRIM NEWS FROM GAM 
------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Information from Gam, Rolpa, where the Maoists 
launched an attack on a combined police and Army outpost May 
7 (Ref A), continues to be spotty.  According to the latest 
accounts, a total of 123 security personnel (53 RNA, 40 
regular police, 30 Armed Police Force) were at the outpost in 
Gam at the time of the attack.  After the attack, 35 badly 
burned bodies have been found.  Because of the bodies' 
condition, the authorities have been unable to determine if 
they are Maoists, security forces or villagers.  Twelve 
wounded RNA, one policeman, and five Armed Police have been 
evacuated to hospitals, and five other RNA and six regular 
police survived the attack.  The rest remain unaccounted for. 
 Police sources say that no villagers have been found in Gam. 
 Whether the residents were killed, abducted, or fled remains 
unknown. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶6.  (SBU) Prachanda could not have picked a more opportune 
time to send out peace signals.  The offer comes just as 
Deuba is visiting Washington and London to ask for assistance 
to defeat the Maoists, and just as many of his political 
opponents--including some in his own party--have called a 
mass meeting on finding a peaceful resolution to the 
conflict.  Deuba has already rejected Prachanda's first 
overture.  Rejecting the second one will put the PM in the 
difficult position of seeming to turn down a chance at peace, 
and can only give his domestic critics--and often 
self-serving political rivals--more reason to find fault. 
But bitter experience with the Maoists' perfidy in the first 
ceasefire and accompanying negotiations, during which the 
Maoists rearmed and regrouped, has taught Deuba and the 
security forces not to trust their professions of peace.  We 
do not expect the GON to reciprocate the Maoists' (likely 
spurious) offer. 
MALINOWSKI