This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

151025Z Mar 02


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ6589

PAGE 01        HARARE  00693  01 OF 03  151036Z 
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      IO-00    LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   M-00     AC-01    NSAE-00  
      OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PC-01    PM-00    PRS-00   
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      G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00    /010W
                  ------------------75210D  151037Z /38    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1229
INFO OAU COLLECTIVE
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 
NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000693 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
CAPE TOWN FOR A/S KANSTEINER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/07 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PHUM PREL PINR PHUM PREL PINR PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S PRE-ELECTION ENVIRONMENT DEEPLY FLAWED 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00693  01 OF 03  151036Z 
 
REF:  (A) HARARE 566, (B) HARARE 577, (C) HARARE 592, D) HARARE 
611, E) HARARE 620 
 
CLASSIFIED BY DCM WHITEHEAD, REASON: 1.5 (B,D). 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1. (C) REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME, THE PERIOD PRECEDING ZIMBABWE'S 
MARCH 9-10 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION HAS BEEN DEEPLY FLAWED.  THE 
GOZ'S OPAQUE AND UNEVEN IMPLEMENATION OF ELECTORAL PROCEDURES 
GIVES MAXIMUM ADVANTAGE TO THE RULING ZANU-PF, BY MINIMIZING 
VOTER TURNOUT IN AREAS OF OPPOSITION STRENGTH AND COMPLICATING 
OBSERVER EFFORTS.  THE MERGER OF GOZ AND ZANU-PF STRUCTURES AND 
FUNCTIONS, FROM DIRECT LOGISTICAL SUPPORT, TO CLEARLY BIASED 
MEDIA CAMPAIGN COVERAGE, TO A SUBVERTED LEGAL REGIME, HAS 
PROVIDED ADDITIONAL UNFAIR ADVANTAGE TO THE RULING PARTY. 
 
¶2. (C) SUMMARY CONTINUED:  FINALLY, CONTINUING VIOLENCE AND 
WIDESPREAD INTIMIDATION AND HARASSMENT OF OPPOSITION LEADERS AND 
SUPPORTERS BY ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS, AS WELL AS POLICE AND SOLDIERS, 
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERED THE OPPOSITION'S CAMPAIGN EFFORTS. 
THE MDC COULD STILL EMERGE VICTORIOUS DESPITE THE SIGNIFICANTLY 
UNEVEN PLAYING FIELD, BUT OVERCOMING ALL OF THE OBSTACLES PLACED 
IN ITS WAY WILL REQUIRE A VERY LARGE VOTER TURNOUT.  END SUMMARY. 
 
----------------------------------- 
MINIMIZING OPPOSITION VOTER TURNOUT 
----------------------------------- 
¶3. (C) GOZ INTIMIDATION AND LOGISTICAL MANIPULATION WILL MINIMIZE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00693  01 OF 03  151036Z 
TURNOUT IN URBAN AREAS, THE STRONGHOLD OF THE MDC.  THE GOZ HAS 
ENGAGED IN A COMPREHENSIVE CAMPAIGN TO DISENFRANCHISE, EITHER 
EXPLICITLY OR LOGISTICALLY, GREAT NUMBERS OF POTENTIAL OPPOSITION 
SUPPORTERS. 
 
¶4. (C) INTIMIDATION EFFORTS BY GOZ/ZANU-PF: 
-- SPECIFIC EXAMPLES OF VIOLENCE COUPLED WITH THE PROPAGATION OF 
THE IDEA THAT ZANU-PF CAN AND WILL TRACK DOWN THOSE WHO VOTE FOR 
THE MDC, BY SUCH MEANS AS HIDDEN CAMERAS AND TRACKING THROUGH THE 
BALLOT SERIAL NUMBER. 
 
--  HARASSMENT AT ROADBLOCKS AND IN NEIGHBORHOODS, DESIGNED TO 
SHOW THE EXTENDED REACH OF WAR VETERANS AND YOUTH MILITIA. 
 
--  MILITIA SEIZURE OF NATIONAL IDENTIFICATION CARDS FROM 
SUSPECTED MDC SYMPATHIZERS, DEPRIVING THEM OF SUFFRAGE. 
 
--  PROPAGATION OF THE IDEA THAT ZIMBABWE WILL EXPERIENCE CIVIL 
WAR SHOULD THE MDC WIN.  THE RECENT ZDF LEADER'S STATEMENT THAT 
THE DEFENSE FORCES  WOULD ONLY ACCEPT AN INDEPENDENCE STRUGGLE 
VETERAN AS PRESIDENT WAS A KEY PART OF THE STRATEGY. 
 
--  HARASSMENT OF PRIVATE MEDIA, INCLUDING THE FIREBOMBING OF THE 
INDEPENDENT "DAILY NEWS" AND THE ARREST OF ITS EDITOR, DESIGNED 
TO SQUELCH COVERAGE CRITICAL OF PRESIDENT MUGABE OR ZANU-PF. 
 
--  THE MURDER OF 31 MDC SUPPORTERS SINCE JANUARY 1, OUTLINING 
THE POTENTIAL THREAT TO MDC SUPPORTERS OF VOICING THAT SUPPORT. 
 
--  IMMUNITY FROM ARREST AND PROSECUTION FOR THOSE WHO COMMIT THE 
VIOLENCE FURTHER SUBSTANTIATES THAT WAR VETERANS AND YOUTH 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00693  01 OF 03  151036Z 
MILITIA HAVE BEEN GIVEN FREE REIN. 
 
¶5. (C) MANIPULATION OF VOTING LOGISTICS: 
 
--  THE SUPREME COURT AFFIRMED LAST WEEK THAT ZIMBABWEANS CAN 
ONLY VOTE IN THEIR HOME CONSTITUENCIES.  CIVIL SOCIETY AND 
OPPOSITION MONITORS AND OBSERVERS WILL BE FORCED TO CHOOSE 
BETWEEN OBSERVING TO HELP MINIMIZE POSSIBLE VOTE FRAUD, AND 
STAYING IN THEIR HOME DISTRICT TO VOTE THEMSELVES. 
 
--  MANY OF THE 80,000 CIVIL SERVANTS ASSIGNED DUTIES AS POLLING 
OFFICERS WILL BE ASSIGNED OUTSIDE THEIR CONSTITUENCIES AND THUS 
UNABLE TO VOTE. 
 
--  POLICE AND SOLDIERS ARE ALLOWED TO USE ABSENTEE BALLOTS,  BUT 
REPORTEDLY HAVE BEEN FORCED TO FILL OUT BALLOTS IN THE PRESENCE 
OF THEIR COMMANDING OFFICERS, WHO ARE PREDOMINANTLY SYMPATHETIC 
TO THE RULING PARTY. 
 
--  THE NUMBER OF POLLING STATIONS IN URBAN AREAS (MDC 
STRONGHOLDS) DECREASED BY APPROXIMATELY HALF IN COMPARISON TO THE 
2000 ELECTION.  LINES AT THESE STATIONS WILL BE CORRESPONDINGLY 
LONGER, POSSIBLY DISENFRANCHISING MANY. 
 
--  IN RURAL AREAS, WHERE ZANU-PF SUPPORT IS STRONGEST, THE 
NUMBERS HAVE GREATLY INCREASED. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ6592 
 
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      DOEE-00  DOTE-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00  DS-00    EAP-00   EB-00 
      OIGO-00  FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00 
      IO-00    LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   M-00     AC-01    NSAE-00 
      OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PC-01    PM-00    PRS-00 
      ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  EPAE-00 
      IIP-00   PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00 
      SAS-00   SWCI-00    /010W 
                  ------------------75211C  151037Z /38 
R 151025Z MAR 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1230 
INFO OAU COLLECTIVE 
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 
NSC WASHDC 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 000693 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
CAPE TOWN FOR A/S KANSTEINER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/07 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PHUM PREL PINR PHUM PREL PINR PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S PRE-ELECTION ENVIRONMENT DEEPLY FLAWED 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00693  02 OF 03  151036Z 
 
--  THE HARARE MAYORAL, MUNICIPAL COUNCIL, AND PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTIONS AND THE CHITUNGWIZE MAYORAL AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 
WILL ALL BE HELD MARCH 9-10, FURTHER COMPLICATING THE PROCESS. 
 
--  THE REGISTRAR GENERAL HAS DISTRIBUTED A SUPPLEMENTAL LIST TO 
ALL POLLING STATIONS OF SUSPECTED DUAL NATIONALS WHO HAVE NOT 
RENOUNCED FOREIGN CITIZENSHIP.  MANY OF THESE ALLEGED 
DUAL NATIONALS ARE OF EUROPEAN OR ASIAN DESCENT, AND ARE 
CONSIDERED TO BE STRONG MDC SUPPORTERS. 
 
---------------------------------- 
COMPLICATING THE ELECTORAL PROCESS 
---------------------------------- 
¶6. (C) IN A WELL-ORGANIZED EFFORT THAT WE BELIEVE DELIBERATE, THE 
GOZ HAS PROVIDED OPAQUE, OUTDATED, OR MISLEADING INFORMATION -- 
WHEN THEY PROVIDED ANY INFORMATION AT ALL -- TO OPPOSITION 
PARTY MEMBERS.  GOZ ATTEMPTS TO MANIPULATE THE OBSERVER PROCESS 
IS DEFINED IN DETAIL REF E. 
 
¶7. (C) INFORMATION CONTROL: 
 
--  AS LATE AS MARCH 7, LESS THAN 48 HOURS BEFORE THE 
ELECTION, THE MDC STILL DID NOT HAVE ACCESS TO THE 
UPDATED VOTERS ROLL. THE COPY PROVIDED TO THE MDC WAS 
THE LIST AS OF JANUARY 27.  ONLY ZANU-PF HAS A COPY OF 
THE FINAL VOTERS' ROLL. 
 
--  THE LIST OF POLLING STATIONS' LOCATIONS WAS NOT 
PUBLISHED UNTIL MARCH 7. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00693  02 OF 03  151036Z 
 
¶8. (C) VOTER ROLL MANIPULATION: 
 
--  THE GOZ NOTED IN THE GAZETTE THAT THE DEADLINE FOR 
REGISTRATION IN THE MARCH 9-10 ELECTION WAS JANUARY 27. 
 
--  ON MARCH 6, THE REGISTRAR GENERAL RETROACTIVELY EXTENDED THE 
VOTER REGISTRATION DEADLINE TO MARCH 3. 
 
--  ZANU-PF, THEREFORE, HAS BEEN REGISTERING THOUSANDS OF 
SUPPORTERS SINCE JANUARY 27. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
USING STATE STRUCTURES FOR POLITICAL GAIN 
----------------------------------------- 
¶9. (C) THE GOZ, THROUGH OVERT COOPERATION WITH ZANU-PF STRUCTURES 
AND ABUSE OF AN AUTHORITARIAN LEGAL REGIME, SEEKS TO KEEP THE 
OPPOSITION OFF-BALANCE IN ITS CAMPAIGN EFFORTS.  THE GOZ WORKS ON 
BEHALF OF ZANU-PF IN THREE WAYS.  FIRST, THE GOZ ALLOWS ZANU-PF 
TO USE GOZ INFRASTRUCTURE IN CONDUCTING ITS ACTIVITY.  SECOND, 
STATE-SPONSORED MEDIA HAS BEEN EXTREMELY ONE-SIDED IN ITS 
COVERAGE OF THE ELECTION, INCLUDING PROVIDING LENGTHY AND LURID 
COVERAGE OF AN ALLEGED ASSASSINATION PLOT.  THIRD, THE GOZ HAS 
CREATED AN AUTHORITARIAN LEGAL ENVIRONMENT, WHICH LIMITS MDC 
REDRESS. 
 
¶10. (C) USE OF GOZ ASSETS: 
 
--  WE HAVE REGULARLY OBSERVED GOZ OFFICES AND VEHICLES 
USED BY ZANU-PF FOR ELECTION ACTIVITIES, INCLUDING ARMY 
JEEPS, PARASTATAL COMPANY BUSES, AND MUNICIPAL 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00693  02 OF 03  151036Z 
DUMPTRUCKS. 
 
--  ZANU-PF IN SOME PLACES IS DISTRIBUTING THE GRAIN 
MARKETING BOARD'S MAIZE MEAL.  THOSE WITHOUT ZANU-PF 
PARTY CARDS ARE NOT ABLE TO PURCHASE FOOD IN MANY 
AREAS. 
 
--  ZDF OR POLICE OFTEN COMBINE WITH ZANU-PF YOUTH 
MILITIA TO CONDUCT VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION. 
 
--  A LARGE NUMBER OF YOUTH MILITIA TERROR CAMPS HAVE BEEN 
ESTABLISHED AT SCHOOLS AND OTHER GOVERNMENT PROPERTIES, BOTH FOR 
TRAINING AND AS A SECURE LOCATION FOR ABDUCTIONS AND BEATINGS. 
 
--  GOZ ARMS CHARGED WITH ELECTION ACTIVITIES ARE THEMSELVES 
HIGHLY PARTISAN.  THE ESC IS HEADED BY A RETIRED COLONEL AND HIS 
DEPUTY IS A BRIGADIER WHO WENT ON LEAVE TWO MONTHS AGO. 
 
¶11. (C) BIASED MEDIA: 
 
--  DAILY NEWS BROADCASTS PROPAGATE THE STORY THAT THE MDC IS A 
PUPPET OF WESTERN STATES. 
 
--  STATE MEDIA CLAIM THAT THE FOOD SHORTAGE IS A RESULT OF FOOD- 
HOARDING BY WHITE FARMERS, IGNORING THE FACT THAT ONE OF THE 
MAJOR CAUSES OF THE CURRENT FOOD SHORTAGE HAS BEEN THE DRASTIC 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ6590 
 
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ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  INL-00   DINT-00 
      DODE-00  DOEE-00  DOTE-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00  DS-00    EAP-00 
      EB-00    FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00 
      IO-00    LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   M-00     AC-01    NSAE-00 
      OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PC-01    PM-00    PRS-00 
      ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    IRM-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00 
      R-00     EPAE-00  IIP-00   PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-02 
      G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00    /010W 
                  ------------------752129  151037Z /38 
R 151025Z MAR 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1231 
INFO OAU COLLECTIVE 
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 
NSC WASHDC 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 000693 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
CAPE TOWN FOR A/S KANSTEINER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/07 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PHUM PREL PINR PHUM PREL PINR PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S PRE-ELECTION ENVIRONMENT DEEPLY FLAWED 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00693  03 OF 03  151037Z 
 
REDUCTION OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION FOLLOWING THE STATE- 
SANCTIONED LAND GRABS. 
 
--  STATE MEDIA HAVE BEEN IN A FRENZY OVER EVENTS SURROUNDING 
TSVANGIRAI'S ALLEGED ATTEMPT TO HIRE ARI BEN-MENASHE OF DICKENS & 
 
SIPDIS 
MADSON TO ASSASSINATE PRESIDENT MUGABE. 
 
¶12. (C) ABUSE OF THE LEGAL APPARATUS: 
 
--  THE POLICE REGULARLY HAVE CITED THE PUBLIC ORDER AND SECURITY 
ACT (POSA) AS AUTHORITY TO CANCEL PUBLIC EVENTS SCHEDULED BY THE 
OPPOSITION MDC, INCLUDING CAMPAIGN RALLIES, AS WELL AS TWO 
BRIEFINGS OF THE DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY THIS WEEK (REFS A, B, C). 
 
--  PRESIDENT MUGABE HAS USED EXTENSIVE PRESIDENTIAL POWERS TO 
OVERRULE SUPREME COURT DECISIONS ON IMPORTANT ELECTION ISSUES. 
(I.E., THE COURT'S JANUARY DECISION THAT HOLDING THE HARARE 
MAYORAL, MUNICIPAL COUNCIL AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 
SIMULTANEOUSLY WAS ILLEGAL; AND THE COURT'S FEBRUARY 27 DECISION 
THAT PARLIAMENT ILLEGALLY PROMULGATED THE AMENDMENTS TO THE 
ELECTORAL ACT). 
 
--  THE GOZ HAS ERODED THE INDEPENDENCE OF ITS JUDICIARY, TO 
LIMIT THE OPPOSITION'S OPTIONS FOR REDRESS TO OPPRESSIVE STATE 
ACTION. 
 
--  THROUGH HARASSMENT OF JUSTICES AND APPOINTMENT OF ADDITIONAL 
PRO-MUGABE JURISTS TO THE SUPREME COURT, MUGABE AND THE GOZ HAVE 
REMOVED AN IMPORTANT CHECK ON GOZ AND ZANU-PF ACTION. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00693  03 OF 03  151037Z 
--  A NUMBER OF ELECTION-RELATED MDC APPLICATIONS TO THE COURT 
HAVE BEEN UNSUCCESSFUL, INCLUDING MDC CHALLENGES OF THE 
CONTINUING VOTER REGISTRATION AND DEMANDING IMMEDIATE 
RELEASE OF THE FINAL VOTER'S ROLL. 
 
---------- 
CONCLUSION 
---------- 
¶13. (C) REGARDLESS OF THE FINAL OUTCOME OF THESE ELECTIONS, THE 
PROCESS HAS BEEN TAINTED SUCH THAT A FREE AND FAIR POLL CANNOT BE 
ACHIEVED.  THE ZANU-PF GOALS IN THE PRE-ELECTION PERIOD WERE 
FOCUSED ON SUPPRESSING MDC VOTER TURNOUT TO THE EXTENT THAT ZANU- 
PF SUPPORTERS WOULD INDEED OUTNUMBER THEM ON THE POLLING DAYS. 
DURING THE 2000 ELECTIONS, ZANU-PF MILITIA CONDUCTED A CAMPAIGN 
OF INTIMIDATION DURING THE PRE-ELECTION PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY A 
RELATIVELY PEACEFUL POLL.  THE GOZ THEN TRUMPETED REPORTS FROM 
SHORT-TERM ELECTION-DAY OBSERVERS THAT THE PROCESS WAS CLEAN. 
WE BELIEVE THAT THE GOZ AND ZANU-PF ARE FOLLOWING THAT SAME 
SCRIPT IN THIS ELECTION. 
 
¶14. (C) SHOULD THE ZIMBABWE ELECTORATE TURN OUT AT AN EXTREMELY 
HIGH LEVEL, THE MDC COULD STILL POSSIBLY WIN THE ELECTION. 
RESULTS, PARTICULARLY FROM THE URBAN MDC STRONGHOLDS, SHOULD BE 
AVAILABLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MARCH 12.  DELAYS BEYOND THAT 
TIME WOULD BE A WORRYING DEVELOPMENT THAT WE BELIEVE COULD 
INDICATE A GOZ ATTEMPT TO MANIPULATE THE COUNT. 
 
¶15. (C) POST BELIEVES THAT THE OPERATIONAL POINTS DESCRIBED ABOVE 
ARE FAR TOO WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED TO BE SPONTANEOUS 
EXPRESSIONS OF ZANU-PF SUPPORT, AS THE GOZ CLAIMS.  THESE YOUTH 
MILITIAS, SUPPORTED BY STATE SECURITY FORCES, HAVE INSTILLED A 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00693  03 OF 03  151037Z 
PALPABLE KAFKA-ESQUE FEAR IN MANY RURAL COMMUNITIES.  GIVEN THE 
CHANGES TO THE LEGAL STRUCTURES, WE FIND IT HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT 
THE MDC WOULD BE SUCCESSFUL SHOULD IT SEEK RECOURSE IN THE 
SUPREME COURT TO OVERTURN A TAINTED OR STOLEN ELECTION. 
 
THIS REPORT WAS COMPILED BY TDY REPORTING OFFICERS TROY FITRELL 
AND AARON TARVER. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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