This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

131251Z Mar 02


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ9499

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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1186
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
OAU COLLECTIVE
ALL EUROPEAN UNION POST COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000661 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/12 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: MUGABE DECLARED WINNER OF ZIMBABWE PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION; MDC LEAVES ITS OPTIONS OPEN 

REF: HARARE 644 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: REGISTRAR-GENERAL TOBAIWA MUDEDE HAS 
DECLARED PRESIDENT ROBERT MUGABE THE WINNER OF 
ZIMBABWE'S MARCH 9-11 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  HE BEAT 
HIS STRONGEST CHALLENGER IN 22 YEARS BY 427,000 VOTES, 
OR 56 PERCENT TO 42 PERCENT.  THE NATURE OF SOME OF THE 
RESULTS, ESPECIALLY EXTRAORDINARILY HIGH FIGURES FOR 
MUGABE IN MASHONALAND DISTRICTS, RAISE CONCERNS OF VOTE- 
RIGGING AND FRAUD.  INSUFFICIENT VOTER TURNOUT FOR AREAS 
OF MDC STRENGTH WAS A KEY FACTOR.  MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN 
TSVANGIRAI REJECTED THE RESULTS AND CALLED THE ELECTION 
 
SIPDIS 
"ILLEGITIMATE."  HARARE AND OTHER MAJOR URBAN AREAS 
REMAIN CALM, BUT THE ARMY AND POLICE PRESENCE HAS 
INCREASED.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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THE RESULTS ARE IN 
------------------ 
 
¶2.  (U) SHORTLY AFTER NOON LOCAL TIME ON MARCH 13, 
REGISTRAR-GENERAL TOBAIWA MUDEDE DECLARED ON STATE 
TELEVISION AND RADIO THAT PRESIDENT ROBERT MUGABE HAD 
BEEN DULY ELECTED TO ANOTHER SIX-YEAR TERM.  THE 
DECLARATION FOLLOWED THE CONSTITUENCY-BY-CONSTITUENCY 
ANNOUNCEMENT OF RESULTS THAT BEGAN IN THE EVENING OF 
MARCH 12 AND CONTINUED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MORNING OF 
MARCH 13.  THE NATIONWIDE FINAL RESULTS ARE BELOW 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00661  01 OF 02  131301Z 
(PERCENTAGE FIGURES BASED ON TOTAL VOTES LESS SPOILED 
BALLOTS): 
 
ROBERT MUGABE (ZANU-PF)  1,685,212 (56.20%) 
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI (MDC)  1,258,401 (41.95%) 
WILSON KUMBULA (ZANU)       31,358 ( 1.05%) 
SHAKESPEARE MAYA (NAGG)     11,906 ( 0.40%) 
PAUL SIWELA (INDEPENDENT)   11,871 ( 0.40%) 
 
¶3.  (C) MUGABE'S EASY SURPASSING OF THE 50 PERCENT MARK 
MEANS THERE WILL BE NO RUNOFF ELECTION.  THE MARGIN OF 
VICTORY OF NEARLY 427,000 VOTES WAS WIDER THAN EXPECTED. 
THE THREE OTHER CANDIDATES WERE EVEN LESS OF A FACTOR 
THAN ANTICIPATED, GARNERING LESS THAN 2 PERCENT OF THE 
VOTE BETWEEN THEM.  THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SPOILED BALLOTS, 
132,000, OR 4.2 PERCENT OF TOTAL VOTES CAST WAS SOMEWHAT 
HIGHER THAN IN THE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION.  THE 
REGISTRAR-GENERAL DID NOT ANNOUNCE THE RESULTS OF THE 
HARARE AND CHITUNGWIZA MAYORAL AND COUNCIL ELECTIONS, 
NOR DID HE SAY WHEN HE WOULD.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT 
NO INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION OF THE RESULTS IS YET 
AVAILABLE.  RINDAI CHIPFUNDE OF THE ZIMBABWE ELECTION 
SUPPORT NETWORK (ZESN), AN UMBRELLA ORGANIZATION 
COMPRISING LOCAL NGOS, TOLD US THAT ZESN WAS STILL 
COMPILING REPORTS FROM ITS OBSERVERS AT COUNTING 
CENTERS.  DAVID COLTART, AN MDC MP AND THE PARTY'S 
ELECTION AGENT FOR BULAWAYO SOUTH, HOWEVER, DID CONFIRM 
THAT THE NUMBERS ANNOUNCED FOR THAT CONSTITUENCY ARE 
CORRECT. 
 
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                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00661  01 OF 02  131301Z 
CONCERNS OF FRAUD 
----------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) A SCAN OF THE RESULTS BY CONSTITUENCY AND A 
VARIETY OF REPORTS RAISE SERIOUS CONCERNS ABOUT THE 
CONDUCT OF THE POLL AND THE LEVEL OF INTIMIDATION IN THE 
PRE-ELECTION PERIOD.  NEARLY ALL CONSTITUENCIES SHOW 
INCREASES IN THE NUMBER OF VOTES FOR MUGABE OVER THE 
2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION FIGURES, EVEN IN URBAN 
AREAS.  IN ZANU-PF'S MASHONALAND STRONGHOLD, THE NUMBER 
OF VOTES FOR MUGABE INCREASED 20 TO 30 PERCENT OVER 
2000, WHILE VOTES FOR TSVANGIRAI CHANGED ONLY 
MARGINALLY.  PART OF THE INCREASE FOR MUGABE CAN BE 
ATTRIBUTED TO HIS NATIONWIDE NAME RECOGNITION VERSUS THE 
LACK OF NAME RECOGNITION FOR SOME OF ZANU-PF'S 
PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES IN 2000.  HOWEVER, THE HUGE 
INCREASE IN MASHONALAND NUMBERS (THE MARGIN WAS 15 TO 1 
IN SOME DISTRICTS) GIVE RISE TO SUSPICIONS OF VOTE 
TAMPERING AND BALLOT BOX STUFFING IN THAT PROVINCE: 
 
-- IN A PRESS BRIEFING MARCH 12, THE MDC STATED THAT AT 
34 POLLING STATIONS IN MASHONALAND, ITS POLLING AGENTS 
WERE CHASED AWAY, ABDUCTED OR ARRESTED, SEALS ON BALLOT 
BOXES WERE BROKEN, OR THE MDC WAS NOT ALLOWED TO AFFIX 
ITS SEALS TO THE BALLOT BOXES.  FOUR OF ITS POLLING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ9500 
 
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O 131251Z MAR 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1187 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
OAU COLLECTIVE 
ALL EUROPEAN UNION POST COLLECTIVE 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000661 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/12 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: MUGABE DECLARED WINNER OF ZIMBABWE PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION; MDC LEAVES ITS OPTIONS OPEN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00661  02 OF 02  131301Z 
AGENTS WERE ARRESTED BEFORE THE COUNTING PROCESS BEGAN. 
MOST OF THE INCIDENTS OCCURRED IN MASHONALAND CENTRAL. 
AT ITS PRESS CONFERENCE MARCH 13, THE MDC ASSERTED THAT 
ZANU-PF MILITIA PREVENTED ITS POLLING AGENTS FROM 
DEPLOYING TO 52 PERCENT OF RURAL POLLING STATIONS. 
 
--RESULTS FROM 6 OF THE 10 MASHONALAND CENTRAL 
CONSTITUENCIES WERE NOT ANNOUNCED UNTIL AFTER 107 OTHER 
CONSTITUENCIES, INCLUDING MANY FROM HARARE.  TRANSPORT 
DIFFICULTIES CANNOT ACCOUNT FOR THIS.  MASHONALAND 
CENTRAL WOULD HAVE HAD MORE TIME THAN ANY OTHER 
PROVINCE, OTHER THAN HARARE, TO CARRY OUT FRAUD. 
 
¶5.  (C) FOR TSVANGIRAI, THE NUMBER OF VOTES INCREASED 
ONLY MARGINALLY, EVEN IN THE MDC'S URBAN STRONGHOLDS. 
IN BULAWAYO AND SOME AREAS OF MATABELELAND, THE NUMBER 
OF VOTES ACTUALLY DECREASED.  VOTER TURNOUTS OF LESS 
THAN 50 PERCENT IN BULAWAYO AND MATABELELAND SOUTH COULD 
BE AN INDICATION OF VOTER APATHY, BUT THE WIDESCALE 
INTIMIDATION OF VOTERS IN THOSE TWO AREAS JUST WEEKS 
BEFORE THE ELECTION IS ALSO A LIKELY FACTOR.  ZANU-PF 
MILITIA AND WAR VETERANS HAVE TARGETED MANY OTHER AREAS 
OF THE COUNTRY FOR INTIMIDATION AND VIOLENT ATTACKS IN 
THE LAST YEAR.  THE AMANI TRUST, A WIDELY RESPECTED 
HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATION, IS COMPILING AN ANALYSIS OF 
THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS WITH REPORTED 
INCIDENTS OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE.  OTHER FACTORS 
CONTRIBUTING TO TSVANGIRAI'S DEFEAT: 
 
-- A LOW NATIONAL TURNOUT RATE OF 55.8 PERCENT DOOMED 
TSVANGIRAI'S CHANCES OF OVERCOMING MUGABE'S CONSIDERABLE 
 
SIPDIS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00661  02 OF 02  131301Z 
ARRAY OF ELECTORAL MANIPULATION TOOLS AND STATE 
RESOURCES.  MUGABE'S COUP DE GRACE WAS CUTTING THE 
NUMBER OF URBAN POLLING STATIONS IN HALF, WHICH LED TO 
MASSIVE VOTER QUEUES AND ONLY A 50 PERCENT VOTER TURNOUT 
IN HARARE, TSVANGIRAI'S STRONGEST BASE OF SUPPORT 
(REFTEL).  ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NO MORE THAN TEN THOUSAND 
OR SO WISHING TO VOTE WERE UNABLE TO DO SO AT THE END OF 
THE THIRD DAY OF POLLING, MANY TENS OF THOUSANDS WERE 
LIKELY TOO DISCOURAGED BY THE KILOMETER-LONG LINES AND 
WAITS OF UP TO 30 HOURS IN DAYS ONE AND TWO. 
 
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THE MDC'S REACTION 
------------------ 
 
¶6.  (C) AT A PACKED NOON PRESS CONFERENCE IN HARARE ON 
MARCH 13, MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI REJECTED THE 
ELECTION RESULTS AND DESCRIBED THE POLLING AS "THE 
BIGGEST FRAUD HE HAS EVER WITNESSED."  HE STATED THAT 
"THE RESULTS DO NOT REFLECT THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE AND 
ARE ILLEGITIMATE."  HE CONCLUDED BY SAYING THE MDC 
REMAINS COMMITTED TO PEACEFUL CHANGE.  IN RESPONSE TO 
REPORTERS' QUESTIONS, TSVANGIRAI SAID HE HAS NO 
INTENTION OF LEAVING THE COUNTRY OR ABANDONING HIS 
PEOPLE.  HE DEMURRED ON WHAT THE MDC WOULD DO NO NEXT, 
BUT INDICATED THAT COURT ACTION WAS ONE OF ITS OPTIONS. 
HE REITERATED THAT HE BELIEVED THE ELECTION HAD BEEN 
"MASSIVELY RIGGED."  IN AN ASIDE WITH POLOFF, MDC MP 
TENDAI BITI SAID THAT THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WAS JUST 
"ROUND 1" AND THE MDC WOULD BE THERE FOR "ROUND 6."  HE 
CONTINUED THAT HE HAD NO EXPECTATION OF SUCCESS WITH ANY 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  00661  02 OF 02  131301Z 
MDC LEGAL ACTION, BUT THAT IT SHOULD BE CARRIED OUT IN 
ANY CASE.  COURT ACTION IS JUST ONE OF THE OPTIONS THE 
MDC HAS AT ITS DISPOSAL, BITI CONCLUDED. 
 
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ALL IS QUIET ... SO FAR 
----------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) SO FAR, THE REACTION ON THE GROUND IN HARARE IS A 
PEACEFUL ONE.  POST HAD HEARD A REPORT OF A SCUFFLE IN 
THE HIGH-DENSITY SUBURB OF MBARE, TO WHICH POLICE 
RESPONDED.  EMBASSY OFFICERS TOURING THE AREA AND OTHER 
SUBURBS SAW NO SIGNS OF DISTURBANCES.  POLICE ROADBLOCKS 
HAVE BEEN ERECTED ALL OVER THE CITY, BUT FOR THE MOST 
PART, THEY ARE ONLY SLOWING AND NOT STOPPING MOTORISTS. 
WE HAVE RECEIVED OTHER REPORTS OF ARMY DEPLOYMENTS TO 
BULAWAYO AND GWERU IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.  ANOTHER REPORT 
STATED THAT ARMY UNITS HAD SURROUNDED MDC HEADQUARTERS 
IN BULAWAYO AND WERE DEPLOYED TO THE BULAWAYO AIRPORT, 
POSSIBLY TO PREVENT MDC LEADERS FROM LEAVING THE 
COUNTRY.  WE WILL REPORT ON NEW DEVELOPMENTS AS THEY 
OCCUR. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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