This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

121538Z Mar 02


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ6008

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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1183
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY 
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000657 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/12 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE ELECTION:  VOTE COUNTING UNDERWAY ON MARCH 12 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON.  REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) POLLING STATIONS IN HARARE AND CHITUNGWIZA CLOSED AT 7:00 
P.M. ON MARCH 11, LEAVING LONG LINES OF VOTERS IN SOME AREAS UNABLE 
TO CAST BALLOTS.  THE VERIFICATION OF BALLOT BOXES BEGAN THE 
MORNING OF MARCH 12 AND VOTE-COUNTING AT MOST BALLOT CENTERS DID 
NOT BEGIN UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE LATE START, WE DO NOT 
EXPECT COMPLETE RESULTS TO BE ANNOUNCED UNTIL SOMETIME ON MARCH 13. 
MEANWHILE, THE MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL WAS ARRESTED -- AND LATER RELEASED 
 AFTER 
AN OVERNIGHT DETENTION -- AND FORMALLY 
CHARGED WITH TREASON, WHILE AT LEAST FIVE MDC ELECTION AGENTS 
ASSIGNED TO MONITOR THE COUNTING OF VOTES WERE ARRESTED.  A SECOND 
AMERICAN CITIZEN HAS BEEN ARRESTED, BUT WE HAVE BEEN UNSUCCESSFUL 
IN GAINING ACCESS TO HIM TO LEARN ADDITIONAL DETAILS.  END SUMMARY. 
 
DISENFRANCHISEMENT OF HARARE AND CHITUNGWIZA VOTERS 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶2.  (C) ALL POLLING STATIONS IN HARARE AND CHITUNGWIZA CLOSED ON 
MARCH 11 AT 7:00 P.M. OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER (EVEN THOUGH MOST HAD 
NOT EVEN OPENED UNTIL 12:00 P.M. IN DEFIANCE OF A HIGH COURT 
ORDER).  VOTERS STANDING IN LINE AT THAT POINT WERE NOT ALLOWED TO 
CAST BALLOTS, DESPITE EARLIER ASSURANCES TO THE CONTRARY FROM 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00657  01 OF 02  121603Z 
SENIOR GOZ OFFICIALS, AND WERE FORCED TO DISPERSE BY HEAVILY-ARMED 
POLICE.  THE MDC INFORMED US THAT 1500 PEOPLE WERE STANDING IN LINE 
AT BOTH ZUVARABUDA SCHOOL IN GLEN NORAH HIGH DENSITY SUBURB AND AT 
DZIVARASEKWA COMMUNITY CENTER WHEN THE POLLING STATIONS CLOSED.  A 
NORWEGIAN DIPLOMAT TOLD US HE HAD PERSONALLY WITNESSED THE CLOSING 
OF A STATION IN GLENVIEW TOWNSHIP WITH 700 WOULD-BE VOTERS STILL IN 
LINE.  THEY WERE ANGRY BUT LEFT PEACEFULLY AFTER BEING TOLD BY 
POLICE TO DISPERSE.  IT IS CLEAR THAT THERE WAS A SUBSTANTIAL 
DISENFRANCHISEMENT OF VOTERS IN THESE TWO URBAN AREAS WHICH IS 
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO QUANTIFY.  OUR NORWEGIAN COLLEAGUE ESTIMATES 
THAT A TOTAL OF AT LEAST 10-15,000 VOTERS WERE STANDING IN LINE IN 
GREATER HARARE AND CHITUNGWIZA WHEN THE STATIONS CLOSED.  THAT 
FIGURE, OF COURSE, DOES NOT INCLUDE THE POTENTIALLY LARGE NUMBERS 
OF PEOPLE WHO DID NOT VOTE BECAUSE THEY WERE SCARED AWAY BY THE 
ABSURDLY LONG LINES.  WE NOTE THAT IN HARARE AND ENVIRONS, THE 
CONSTITUENCY LISTS AVERAGE 5,000 VOTERS PER POLLING PLACE, WITH 
SOME AS HIGH AS 7,000.  THE AVERAGE FOR BULAWAYO WAS 3,000. 
ELSEWHERE IN THE COUNTRY, THE CONSTITUENCY AVERAGE WAS 1,000 
REGISTERED VOTERS PER STATION. 
 
COUNTING 
-------- 
 
¶3.  (U) THE VERIFICATION OF BALLOT BOXES AND THEIR CONTENTS 
CONSUMED MUCH OF THE MORNING OF MARCH 12, ACCORDING TO THE STATE- 
CONTROLLED ZIMBABWE BROADCASTING CORPORATION (ZBC).  COUNTING AT 
MOST CENTERS THEN BEGAN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  INFORMATION 
MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO ANNOUNCED AT A PRESS CONFERENCE THAT RESULTS 
WOULD LIKELY BE ANNOUNCED ON MARCH 13 AND HE EXPRESSED SATISFACTION 
AT HOW THE ELECTION PROCESS HAD BEEN CONDUCTED. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00657  01 OF 02  121603Z 
¶4.  (C) COMMENT:  THERE IS ONE COUNTING CENTER FOR EACH OF 
ZIMBABWE'S 120 CONSTITUENCIES.  WHEN THE COUNTING AT EACH CENTER IS 
FINISHED, THE RESULTS WILL BE COMMUNICATED VIA PROVINCIAL COMMAND 
CENTERS TO THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL'S OFFICE IN HARARE, WHICH WILL 
ANNOUNCE RESULTS.  DURING THE JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, 
THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL ANNOUNCED RESULTS CONSTITUENCY BY 
CONSTITUENCY ON THE GOZ-CONTROLLED TELEVISION AND RADIO.  THIS 
TIME, IF THE CONSTITUENCY RESULTS BEGIN TO LOOK BAD FOR THE RULING 
PARTY, THE R.G. COULD WAIT TO RELEASE THE NUMBERS.  AN EU CONTACT 
WAS TOLD BY A GOZ OFFICIAL THAT THE RG WOULD WAIT TO RELEASE 
FIGURES UNTIL HE HAS A "CRITICAL MASS" OF NUMBERS. 
 
ARRESTS OF KEY MDC OFFICIALS 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) MEANWHILE, MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE WAS 
ARRESTED BY POLICE ON MARCH 11 NEAR THE BORDER WITH BOTSWANA.  HE 
WAS ACCOMPANIED BY HIS FAMILY, WHICH WAS ALLOWED TO PROCEED INTO 
BOTSWANA.  NCUBE, MEANWHILE, WAS TAKEN TO BULAWAYO POLICE 
HEADQUARTERS, THEN TRANSFERRED TO THE CENTRAL POLICE STATION IN 
HARARE, WHERE HE ARRIVED AT 3:00 A.M. ON MARCH 12.  NCUBE HAS BEEN 
IMPLICATED -- ALONG WITH MDC LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI AND TWO 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ6010 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00657  02 OF 02  121604Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00  EAP-00   EUR-00 
      VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    L-00     AC-01 
      NSAE-00  OMB-01   PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00 
      SP-00    SSO-00   SS-00    TRSE-00  T-00     USIE-00  PMB-00 
      DRL-02   G-00     SAS-00     /005W 
                  ------------------733BB0  121604Z /45 
O 121538Z MAR 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1184 
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY 
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000657 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/12 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00657  02 OF 02  121604Z 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE ELECTION:  VOTE COUNTING UNDERWAY ON MARCH 12 
 
JUNIOR MPS -- IN THE ALLEGED PLOT TO ASSASSINATE PRESIDENT MUGABE. 
POLICE SAID THEY SUSPECTED THAT NCUBE WAS TRYING TO FLEE 
POTENTIALLY SERIOUS CRIMINAL CHARGES AND PROCEEDED FORMALLY TO 
CHARGE HIM WITH TREASON ON MARCH 12.  HE WAS RELEASED LATER THE 
SAME DAY ON A BAIL OF 500,000 ZIMBABWEAN DOLLARS (APPROXIMATELY 
U.S.$ 1500). 
 
¶6.  (C) TSVANGIRAI'S SPECIAL ADVISOR GANDI MUDZINGWA TOLD POLITICAL 
SECTION CHIEF THAT NCUBE -- AT THE INSTRUCTION OF THE MDC'S 
NATIONAL EXECUTIVE -- WAS PLANNING TO LEAVE THE COUNTRY THE DAY HE 
WAS ARRESTED.  HE HAD INTENDED TO ESCORT HIS FAMILY TO THE BOTSWANA 
BORDER, THEN JOIN THEM IN JOHANNESBURG VIA A FLIGHT FROM BULAWAYO 
LATER THAT DAY.  THE PARTY'S NATIONAL EXECUTIVE HAD DETERMINED THAT 
SEVERAL KEY LEADERS SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE THE COUNTRY TO 
CARRY ON THE STRUGGLE IF THE GOZ/ZANU-PF ARREST TOP PARTY OFFICIALS 
AFTER THE ELECTION.  AS PART OF THIS CONTINGENCY PLANNING, DEPUTY 
SECRETARY-GENERAL GIFT CHIMANIKIRE IS CURRENTLY IN JOHANNESBURG, 
 
SIPDIS 
WHERE HE ARRIVED ON MARCH 11.  MUDZINGWA NOTED THAT HE, TSVANGIRAI, 
AND TSVANGIRAI'S WIFE ARE STAYING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN THE 
NORTH WING OF THE 12TH FLOOR OF HARARE'S MEIKLES HOTEL, BECAUSE 
MANY INTERNATIONAL OBSERVER DELEGATIONS AND FOREIGN JOURNALISTS ARE 
STAYING THERE DURING THE ELECTION PERIOD, AND WOULD WITNESS ANY 
POST-ELECTION ABUSE OF THE MDC LEADER.  MUDZINGWA THOUGHT THAT 
NCUBE WOULD PROBABLY REMAIN IN HARARE AFTER HIS RELEASE, 
AND WOULD LIKELY STAY WITH TSVANGIRAI IN THE MEIKLES. 
 
¶7.  (C) MUDZINGWA TOLD US THAT FIVE OF THE MDC'S ELECTION AGENTS 
(THOSE OFFICIALS ACCREDITED TO OBSERVE THE COUNTING PROCESS AT THE 
DESIGNATED CENTERS) WERE ARRESTED TODAY.  ONE WAS LATER RELEASED 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00657  02 OF 02  121604Z 
AND THE PARTY WAS NEGOTIATING FOR THE RELEASE OF THE OTHER FOUR. 
 
PLANNED CIVIL UNREST 
-------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) MUDZINGWA TOLD US THAT DEMONSTRATIONS ORGANIZED BY THE MDC 
AND ZIMBABWE CONGRESS OF TRADE UNIONS (ZCTU) COULD BEGIN AS EARLY 
AS THE EVENING OF MARCH 12.  ASKED WHY THE OPPOSITION PARTY WAS 
CONTEMPLATING LAUNCHING SUCH ACTIVITIES BEFORE THE POLL RESULTS ARE 
ANNOUNCED, MUDZINGWA SAID THE ANGER AT ZANU-PF IN URBAN AREAS WAS 
AT ITS PEAK -- AFTER THE LONG QUEUES AND DISENFRANCHISEMENT OF SO 
MANY VOTERS -- AND THE MDC WANTED TO BUILD ON THAT MOMENTUM.  NOW 
WAS THE TIME TO CAPITALIZE ON THIS SENTIMENT WITH ACTIONS INTENDED 
TO PRESSURE ZANU-PF TO ACCEPT AN MDC VICTORY. 
 
SECOND AMERICAN ARRESTED 
------------------------ 
 
¶9.  (C) A SECOND NON-OFFICIAL AMERICAN HAS BEEN ARRESTED -- THIS 
TIME IN THE MASHONALAND CENTRAL TOWN OF MVURWI ON MARCH 11.  WE 
WERE INFORMED OF HIS ARREST BY A PRIVATE CITIZEN.  SINCE THE 
GOVERNMENT HAS REFUSED SO FAR TO PROVIDE ACCESS TO HIM, WE HAVE 
BEEN UNABLE TO DETERMINE THE DETAILS OF HIS CASE, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE 
LEARNED HE IS A FREE-LANCE JOURNALIST WHO REPORTEDLY ENTERED ON A 
TOURIST VISA.  WE ARE LODGING A STRONG PROTEST VIA DIPLOMATIC NOTE 
WITH THE MFA CONCERNING THE GOZ'S REFUSAL BOTH TO NOTIFY US OF THE 
ARREST AND TO PROVIDE ACCESS.  MEANWHILE, THE AMERICAN CITIZEN 
ARRESTED IN MUTARE ON MARCH 8 REMAINS IN DETENTION ON CHARGES OF 
"POSSESSING DANGEROUS WEAPONS." (COMMENT:  HE REPORTEDLY HAD A 
HUNTING KNIFE AND A CAN OF PEPPER SPRAY IN HIS POSSESSION, BUT WE 
SUSPECT THAT THE POLICE WERE ANNOYED BY HIS EFFORTS TO HELP 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00657  02 OF 02  121604Z 
TRANSPORT MDC MONITORS TO POLLING STATIONS PRIOR TO ELECTION DAYS. 
END COMMENT.)  THE GOZ CONTINUES TO DENY ACCESS TO HIM.  THE U.S. 
WARDEN IN MUTARE WITNESSED HIS COURT APPEARANCE TODAY AND REPORTED 
THAT HE APPEARED TO BE IN SEVERE PHYSICAL PAIN AND TO HAVE BEEN 
PSYCHOLOGICALLY TRAUMATIZED.  THE MFA TOLD US TODAY THAT IT IS 
NEGOTIATING WITH THE POLICE TO SECURE US CONSULAR ACCESS TO THE 
AMCIT. 
 
EMBASSY OBSERVATION EFFORT 
-------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (U) TWENTY-FIVE EMBASSY OBSERVERS WERE DEPLOYED AROUND THE 
COUNTRY ON THE TWO ELECTION DAYS PLUS THE EXTRA DAY OF VOTING IN 
HARARE AND CHITUNGWIZA.  DURING THAT THREE-DAY PERIOD, OUR TEAMS 
COVERED 15,140 KILOMETERS AND VISITED 470 POLLING STATIONS 
(APPROXIMATELY 10 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL NUMBER OF STATIONS).  THE 
EMBASSY ELECTION OBSERVATION EFFORT HAS NOW FULLY COME TO ITS END. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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