This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.



                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8469

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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1076
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY OSLO PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000556 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF AND AF/S 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/02 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PHUM KDEM ZI
SUBJECT: MORE ELECTORAL DEVELOPMENTS, MORE UNCERTAINTY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00556  01 OF 02  020823Z 
 
REF: HARARE 543 (NOTAL) 
 
CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY.  IN ADDITION TO THE SUPREME COURT 
DECISION STRIKING DOWN ELECTORAL LAW AMENDMENTS 
(REFTEL), THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF LEGAL AND OTHER 
ELECTORAL DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE PAST 48 HOURS.  A HIGH 
COURT JUDGEMENT ON DUAL NATIONALITY AND A SUPREME COURT 
RULING ON VOTING BY CONSTITUENCIES HAVE CLARIFIED THESE 
ISSUES, ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLY TOO LATE IN THE PROCESS 
TO HAVE ANY PRACTICAL EFFECT.  JUSTICE MINISTER 
CHINAMASA CONFIRMED OUR ANALYSIS (REFTEL) THAT HE 
INTENDS TO RUN THE ELECTIONS AS HE WISHES, COURT RULINGS 
NOTWITHSTANDING.  THE CONFUSION SURROUNDING THE 
ELECTORAL PROCESS HAS BEEN FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE 
ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMISSION'S (ESC) FAILURE TO 
RELEASE THE LIST OF POLLING PLACES, WHICH IN TURN WOULD 
TRIGGER THE RELEASE OF THE NAMES OF POLLING AGENTS AND 
PRESIDING OFFICERS.  THE EMERGING "CHAOS" AROUND THE 
ELECTORAL PROCESS IS BEING ORCHESTRATED BY THE GOZ TO 
FAVOR ZANU-PF.  END SUMMARY. 
 
LEGAL DEVELOPMENTS 
------------------ 
¶2.  (C) A HIGH COURT RULING AND A SUPREME COURT RULING 
HAVE CLARIFIED TWO ISSUES THAT HAVE DOGGED THE 
ZIMBABWEAN POLITICAL CLIMATE FOR MONTHS.  THE HIGH COURT 
RULED PROVISIONALLY ON THE CONTROVERSIAL DUAL 
NATIONALITY ISSUE, WHICH HAS FORCED THOUSANDS OF DUAL 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00556  01 OF 02  020823Z 
NATIONAL ZIMBABWEANS TO RENOUNCE ONE OR THE OTHER OF 
THEIR HOMELANDS.  (THE OPPOSITION HAS REPEATEDLY CHARGED 
THAT ZANU-PF ENGINEERED THIS INITIATIVE TO 
DISENFRANCHISE SEVERAL MILLION POTENTIAL VOTERS WHO ARE 
COMMERCIAL FARM WORKERS WITH ROOTS IN NEIGHBORING 
COURTRIES, OR SETTLERS OF NON_AFRICAN ANCESTRY.)  THE 
HIGH COURT EXTENDED THE ALREADY PASSED DEADLINE FOR 
RENUNCIATION BY SIX MONTHS, AN INTERIM RULING THAT 
PRESUMABLY WOULD BE WELCOMED BY THE MDC.  ON THE OTHER 
HAND, THE SUPREME COURT OVERTURNED A HIGH COURT RULING 
THAT COMPELLED THE REGISTRAR GENERAL (RG) TO COMPILE A 
NATIONAL LIST AND PERMIT NATIONAL, RATHER THAN 
CONSTITUENCY LEVEL, VOTING FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION.  SCORE ONE FOR ZANU-PF. 
 
CHINAMASA SET THE RECORD STRAIGHT 
--------------------------------- 
¶3.  (C) IN AN EXTENDED LIVE INTERVIEW ON ZBC TELEVISION 
EVENING NEWS, JUSTICE MINISTER CHINAMASA CONFIRMED OURS 
SUSPICIONS THAT HE WILL FORGE AHEAD ON ELECTORAL 
PLANNING AS HE CHOOSES, AND DAMN THE COURTS.  CHINAMASA 
STATED, ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MORE OBLIQUELY, THAT THE GOZ 
WILL EMPLOY PRESIDENTIAL DIRECTIVES TO RUN THE ELECTION 
ALONG THE SAME LINES ENVISAGED BY THE AMENDED ELECTORAL 
ACT THAT THE SUPREME COURT STRUCK DOWN. 
 
THE CATCH 22 POLLING STATION CONUNDRUM 
-------------------------------------- 
¶4.  (C) IN A MEETING WITH INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS, AS 
REPORTED BY THE EU, THE DEPUTY HEAD OF THE ESC MORE OR 
LESS STATED THAT THE ESC IS EMPOWERED BY LAW TO PUT 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00556  01 OF 02  020823Z 
POLLING STATIONS WHERE THEY ARE NEEDED.  BY LOGICAL 
EXTENSION, THEY MAY ALSO REMOVE THEM FROM WHERE THEY ARE 
NOT WANTED.  HE WOULD NEITHER CONFIRM NOR DENY THAT 
POLLING STATION NUMBERS WILL BE REDUCED IN MDC 
STRONGHOLDS AND INCREASED IN ZANU-PF TERRITORY, BUT THIS 
APPEARS TO BE THE CASE.  IT IS THUS FAR IMPOSSIBLE TO 
SAY, SINCE NEITHER THE RG NOR ESC HAVE RELEASED A LIST 
OF DESIGNATED POLLING PLACES.  THIS IN TURN HAS 
PREVENTED ANYONE FROM OBTAINING NAMES OF POLLING AGENTS 
AND PRESIDING OFFICERS, EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING PROGRESS ON 
PLANNING WHERE AND HOW TO DEPLOY INTERNATIONAL/LOCAL 
MONITORS AND POLITICAL PARTY AGENTS ON THE VOTING DAYS. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶5.  (C) WE ARE INCREASINGLY CONVINCED THAT THE RECENT 
DEVELOPMENTS ARE INTEGRAL PARTS OF A CAREFULLY 
ORCHESTRATED SCHEME TO OBSCURE THE ELECTIONS BENEATH A 
VEIL OF DISORDER AND UNCERTAINTY.  THE HIGH COURT RULING 
ON DUAL NATIONALITY MEANS NOTHING, ONE WEEK AWAY FROM 
THE VOTE, SINCE THE VOTER ROLLS ARE PRESUMABLY CLOSED 
FOR THOSE PROBABLE MDC SUPPORTERS WHO HAVE THEORETICALLY 
RECEIVED A JUDICIAL REPRIEVE FROM DISENFRANCHISEMENT. 
THE CONSTITUENCY DECISION IS MORE OF A TWO-EDGED SWORD 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8470 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00556  02 OF 02  020823Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  CIAE-00  DODE-00  DOEE-00 
      WHA-00   SRPP-00  DS-00    EAP-00   EB-00    EUR-00   VC-00 
      H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00 
      AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PC-01 
      PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    SSO-00   STR-00 
      TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-02   G-00 
      NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00    /010W 
                  ------------------6E5D2E  020823Z /38 
O 020812Z MAR 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1077 
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY OSLO PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000556 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF AND AF/S 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/02 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PHUM KDEM ZI
SUBJECT: MORE ELECTORAL DEVELOPMENTS, MORE UNCERTAINTY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00556  02 OF 02  020823Z 
 
AND THUS HARDER TO COMPREHEND FROM THE ZANU-PF 
PERSPECTIVE.  IT WOULD SEEM TO BE AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO 
DISCOURAGE INTIMIDATED AND DISLOCATED MDC SUPPORTERS 
FROM RETURNING TO VOTE IN THEIR HOME CONSTITUENCIES, BUT 
IT WOULD ALSO SERVE TO COMPLICATE ZANU-PF ATTEMPTS TO 
BRING IN OUTSIDERS TO VOTE IN CONSTITUENCIES OTHER THAN 
THEIR OWN.  FROM OUR PERSPECTIVE, THE GOZ HAS SET THE 
STAGE TO SUPPORT THEIR EFFORTS TO TILT THE VOTE AS MUCH 
AS POSSIBLE IN FAVOR OF ZANU-PF WHILE ATTEMPTING, 
THROUGH THE FOG OF CONFUSION, TO MAINTIAN A PRETEXT THAT 
THEY HAVE NOT OUTRIGHT STOLEN THE ELECTION.  THE CAT AND 
MOUSE GAME WITH OBSERVERS AND DOMESTIC CSOS CONTINUES, 
WITH ZANU-PF AND CHINAMASA DETERMINING THE RULES.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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