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Reference ID	Created	Released	Classification	Origin
02HARARE61	2002-01-08 09:35	2011-08-30 01:44	CONFIDENTIAL	Embassy Harare

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

080935Z Jan 02

 

                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTO1299

PAGE 01        HARARE  00061  081040Z 
ACTION AF-00    

INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  
      SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    
      H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  
      OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PC-01    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   
      P-00     SP-00    TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02   
      G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00    /007W
                  ------------------54A00C  081041Z /38    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 0656
INFO NSC WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000061 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/12 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: ZVOBGO PREDICTS MUGABE WILL LOSE THE 
ELECTION 
 
REF: '01 HARARE 3813 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
¶1.  (C) IN A DECEMBER 20 LUNCH WITH AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN 
AND POLOFF, ZANU-PF MP AND MASVINGO "SUPREMO" EDDISON 
ZVOBGO RUMINATED ON REPRESSIVE LEGISLATION BEFORE 
PARLIAMENT (REPORTED REFTEL), MASVINGO POLITICS, AND THE 
UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  ZVOBGO HAD FEW KIND 
WORDS FOR HIS OLD BROTHER-IN-ARMS MUGABE, SAYING THE 
AGING PRESIDENT DOES NOT LISTEN TO HIM OR ANYONE ELSE 
ANYMORE.  ZVOBGO STATED THAT MUGABE IS BECOMING MORE 
UNPOPULAR ALL THE TIME AND WOULD LOSE THE MARCH 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  "HOW DO YOU CONVINCE VOTERS TO 
VOTE FOR YOU BY BEATING THEM UP?" HE ASKED RHETORICALLY. 
 
¶2.  (C) ZVOBGO INTIMATED THAT ONE OF THE KEY AREAS 
MUGABE WOULD LOSE WOULD BE MASVINGO PROVINCE.  HE HINTED 
THAT HE AND HIS SUPPORTERS WOULD NOT BE CAMPAIGNING FOR 
THE PRESIDENT.  HOWEVER, HE DENIED THAT ZANU-PF SPLITS 
IN MASVINGO WOULD COST MUGABE THE ELECTION, OBJECTING TO 
THE IDEA THAT "FACTIONALISM" IS A PROBLEM IN THE 
PROVINCE.  ZVOBGO DID NOTE THAT VIRTUALLY NO 
KARANGANS (THE SHONA SUBGROUP THAT DOMINATES MASVINGO) 
WERE IN CABINET OR PERMANENT SECRETARY POSITIONS, A FACT 
THAT WILL HURT MUGABE IN THE ELECTION.  "MUGABE WILL 
LOSE THE ELECTION ON HIS OWN," THE MP PREDICTED. 
 
¶3.  (U) BELYING ZVOBGO'S CLAIMS, THE JANUARY 3 EDITION 
OF THE GOVERNMENT-SUPPORTED "ZIMBABWE MIRROR" REPORTED 
THAT THE ZVOBGO FACTION (BACKED BY OUSTED GOVERNOR 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00061  081040Z 
DZIKAMAI MAVHAIRE AND THE PROVINCIAL WAR VETERANS 
ASSOCIATION) RECENTLY SENT A LETTER TO PRESIDENT MUGABE 
IMPLORING HIM TO RESOLVE THE ZANU-PF SPLITS IN MASVINGO. 
THE LETTER REPORTEDLY DEMANDED THAT MUGABE REMOVE THE 
PROVINCIAL EXECUTIVE INSTALLED LAST YEAR AND HEADED BY 
HIGHER EDUCATION MINISTER SAMUEL MUMBENGEGWI AND CURRENT 
GOVERNOR JOSIAH HUNGWE (AND BACKED BY VICE-PRESIDENT 
SIMON MUZENDA), OR FACE LOSING THE ELECTION.  THE 
ARTICLE REPORTED THAT THE ZANU-PF TOP BRASS WAS DIVIDED 
OVER HOW TO HANDLE THE ZVOBGO DEMAND. 
 
¶4.  (C) COMMENT:  AS ZIMBABWE'S MOST POPULOUS PROVINCE, 
AND ONE NEARLY EVENLY DIVIDED IN SUPPORT FOR THE MDC AND 
ZANU-PF, MASVINGO WILL BE CRUCIAL TO MUGABE'S CHANCES 
FOR RE-ELECTION.  IF MUGABE CANNOT PLACATE ZVOBGO, WHO 
REMAINS POPULAR IN THE PROVINCE, AND GET HIS BACKING IN 
THE ELECTION, THE PRESIDENT RISKS LOSING A LARGE BLOCK 
OF VOTES.  THE FACTIONAL SPLITS THAT HAVE WRACKED ZANU- 
PF IN MASVINGO FOR YEARS ARE PROBABLY NOT AS GREAT A 
FACTOR FOR MUGABE AS THE PRESS WOULD SUGGEST BECAUSE THE 
EXECUTIVE INSTALLED BY MUGABE AND MUZENDA HAS LITTLE 
PUBLIC SUPPORT.  THE KEY WILL BE CONVINCING ZVOBGO AND 
HIS CADRES TO BACK THE PRESIDENT, AND THAT APPEARS 
INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY AS IT WOULD REQUIRE A HUMILIATING 
ABOUT-FACE BY MUGABE.  END COMMENT. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
>

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Viewing cable 02HARARE61, ZIMBABWE: ZVOBGO PREDICTS MUGABE WILL LOSE THE