This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

310819Z Jan 02


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5560

PAGE 01        HARARE  00284  01 OF 04  310830Z 
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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0842
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 000284 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/12 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: A/S CRANER MESSAGE TO ZIMBABWE GOVERNMENT: YOU 
ARE PULLING THE TRIGGER OF SANCTIONS 
 
REF: 01 HARARE 3672 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: BETWEEN JANUARY 15 AND 18, ASSISTANT 
SECRETARY LORNE CRANER AND HIS DELEGATION MET WITH A 
 
SIPDIS 
WIDE SAMPLING OF ZIMBABWE GOVERNMENT, OPPOSITION AND 
CIVIL SOCIETY REPRESENTATIVES.  A/S CRANER INFORMED TWO 
MEMBERS OF THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) THAT THE 
ZIMBABWE LEADERSHIP IS IN THE PROCESS OF "PULLING THE 
TRIGGER" OF US TRAVEL AND FINANCIAL RESTRICTIONS. 
MEANWHILE, THE GOZ TRIED TO DOWNPLAY REPRESSIVE 
LEGISLATION RECENTLY PASSED BY THE ZIMBABWE PARLIAMENT 
AND HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES BY RULING PARTY SUPPORTERS. 
OPPOSITION, CIVIL SOCIETY AND COMMERCIAL FARM 
REPRESENTATIVES PAINTED A PICTURE OF A RAPIDLY 
DETERIORATING HUMAN RIGHTS SITUATION ON THE GROUND.  THE 
GROUPS WITH WHOM CRANER MET WERE DIVIDED ON THE OUTCOME 
OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SCHEDULED FOR MARCH AND ITS 
AFTERMATH.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
MESSAGE TO GOZ: YOU ARE PULLING THE TRIGGER 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C)  ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE FOR DEMOCRACY, 
HUMAN RIGHTS AND LABOR LORNE CRANER, HIS DEPUTY JOHN 
SCOTT CARPENTER, S/P ADVISOR TOM CALLAHAN, AMBASSADOR 
SULLIVAN AND POLOFF MET WITH SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT -- 
AND ZANU-PF SECRETARY OF ADMINISTRATION -- EMMERSON 
MNANGAGWA, WHO WAS JOINED BY CLERK OF PARLIAMENT AUSTIN 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00284  01 OF 04  310830Z 
ZVOMA AND MFA U.S. DESK OFFICER RICHARD CHIBUWE.  AFTER 
INITIAL PLEASANTRIES, A/S CRANER POINTED OUT GROWING 
U.S. CONCERN FOR THE DETERIORATING HUMAN RIGHTS 
SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE AND THE RECENT PASSAGE OF 
REPRESSIVE LEGISLATION BY PARLIAMENT.  MNANGAGWA REPLIED 
THAT VIOLENCE ON THE FARMS HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY 
AND THAT THERE HAVE BEEN NO NEW FARM INVASIONS SINCE THE 
MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE "CLOSED" THE A1 RESETTLEMENT 
SCHEME ON JULY 31, 2001.  THAT MAY BE SO, CRANER 
RETORTED, BUT THE LEVEL OF POLITICALLY-MOTIVATED 
VIOLENCE UNRELATED TO THE LAND ISSUE APPEARS TO BE 
INCREASING.  THE SPEAKER BLAMED THE MDC FOR STARTING A 
FEW ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE, TO WHICH ZANU-PF 
YOUTHS RESPOND IN KIND.  ADDITIONALLY, THE GOZ DOES NOT 
HAVE "YOUTH BRIGADES" -- IT SPONSORS A NATIONAL YOUTH 
SERVICE IN WHICH YOUTHS ARE TRAINED AND DEPLOYED FOR 
COMMUNITY SERVICE IN CLINICS AND SCHOOLS.  IT IS TRUE, 
MNANGAGWA STATED, THAT THE POLITICAL PARTIES HAVE THEIR 
OWN YOUTH WINGS, AND IT IS THEY WHO ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR 
THE VIOLENCE.  REGARDING THE RECENTLY PASSED PUBLIC 
ORDER AND SECURITY ACT (POSA), MNANGAGWA PUZZLED OVER 
U.S. CONCERNS, SAYING THE LEGISLATION INCORPORATES 
PROVISIONS FROM BRITISH AND SOUTH AFRICAN LAWS.  A/S 
CRANER REPLIED THAT IT APPEARS THE POSA UTILIZES THE 
HARSHEST ASPECTS OF THESE LAWS AND MADE THE POINT THAT 
NO ONE WORRIES TOO MUCH ABOUT THESE PROVISIONS THERE 
BECAUSE WHERE THE RULE OF LAW PREVAILS, HARSH PROVISIONS 
CAN BE CHALLENGED.  IN ZIMBABWE, THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY 
THE CASE ANY LONGER. 
 
¶3.  (C) A/S CRANER STATED THAT WHEN A/S WALTER 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00284  01 OF 04  310830Z 
KANSTEINER MET WITH GOZ OFFICIALS LAST MONTH (REFTEL), 
HE SAID GOZ ACTIONS WOULD DETERMINE WHETHER THE U.S. 
ADMINISTRATION ENACTS TRAVEL AND FINANCIAL RESTRICTIONS 
ON ZIMBABWEAN LEADERS AS STIPULATED IN THE ZIMBABWE 
DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA).  SINCE 
THEN, THE USG HAS SEEN ONLY A DETERIORATION IN THE 
SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE; IN FACT, THE GOZ IS "PULLING THE 
TRIGGER" OF U.S. RESTRICTIONS THROUGH ITS FAILURE TO 
STEM POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF DRACONIAN 
LEGISLATION.  MNANGAGWA REPLIED THAT THERE IS A GROWING 
ANTI-U.S. FEELING IN THE GOZ; THE ZDERA IS A U.S. QUID 
PRO QUO FOR BRITAIN'S SUPPORT IN THE WAR AGAINST 
TERRORISM; AND THE GOZ CAN ONLY ACT IN THE INTERESTS OF 
THE ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE, NOT THOSE OF THE U.S.  THE 
SPEAKER MAINTAINED THAT THE OLD LAW AND ORDER 
MAINTENANCE ACT, WHICH THE POSA REPLACED, PROVIDED FOR 
THE DEATH PENALTY FOR NINE OFFENSES -- THE POSA DOES FOR 
ONLY ONE, AND THAT THERE ARE NO POLITICAL PRISONERS IN 
ZIMBABWE, UNLIKE MANY OTHER COUNTRIES. 
 
¶4.  (C) THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS' UNDER SECRETARY 
FOR EUROPE AND AMERICAS GEORGE VENGESA TOLD A/S CRANER 
THAT ZIMBABWE IS "ON TRACK" FOR A FREE AND FAIR 
ELECTION, A MESSAGE IT HAS BEEN DELIVERING TO ITS SADC 
PARTNERS.  A/S CRANER REMARKED THAT DESPITE A HISTORY OF 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5562 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00284  02 OF 04  310831Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
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                  ------------------5FDE10  310831Z /38 
P 310819Z JAN 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0843 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 000284 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/12 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: A/S CRANER MESSAGE TO ZIMBABWE GOVERNMENT: YOU 
ARE PULLING THE TRIGGER OF SANCTIONS 
 
BUMPY RELATIONS, THE U.S. DOES CARE ABOUT ZIMBABWE AND 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00284  02 OF 04  310831Z 
THAT IT IS NOT IN LEAGUE WITH THE BRITISH TO UNDERMINE 
THE COUNTRY.  HOWEVER, WE HAVE TO SAY THE PRACTICES IN 
ZIMBABWE TO DATE DO NOT FIT WITH THE DEMOCRATIC TRENDS 
OF THE REGION.  BECOMING DEFENSIVE, VENGESA STATED "HOW 
CAN YOU SAY THAT WHEN 57 OPPOSITION MPS WERE ELECTED IN 
2000?"  THE MFA OFFICIAL THEN DEMANDED TO KNOW WHY 
ZIMBABWE WAS BEING SINGLED OUT FOR SANCTIONS WHEN OTHER 
COUNTRIES HAVE SIMILAR PROBLEMS.  "WHAT OTHER AFRICAN 
COUNTRIES HAVE BEEN SLAPPED WITH SANCTIONS IN THIS 
MANNER?"  A/S CRANER RESPONDED THAT SOUTH AFRICA IN THE 
1980S AND MORE RECENTLY SUDAN AND NIGERIA HAVE BEEN HIT 
WITH MORE DRACONIAN SANCTIONS FOR SERIOUS HUMAN RIGHTS 
ABUSES.  ZIMBABWE IS GETTING OFF RELATIVELY EASILY AS 
THE ZDERA PROVIDES FOR MORE INCENTIVES THAN 
RESTRICTIONS.  A/S CRANER ALSO DELIVERED THE USG MESSAGE 
TO VENGESA, AS HE DID TO MNANGAGWA, THAT THE GOZ IS 
"SQUEEZING THE TRIGGER" OF SANCTIONS.  VENGESA GLUMLY 
STATED THAT HE WOULD PASS ON THE MESSAGE TO MORE SENIOR 
GOZ OFFICIALS. 
 
--------------- 
IMPACT OF ZDERA 
--------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) A NUMBER OF CIVIL SOCIETY AND OPPOSITION 
REPRESENTATIVES WITH WHOM THE CRANER DELEGATION MET 
COMMENTED ON THE ZDERA.  CHAIRMAN REGINALD MATCHABA-HOVE 
AND NATIONAL COORDINATOR RINDAI CHIPFUNDE OF THE 
ZIMBABWE ELECTION SUPPORT NETWORK (ZESN), AN UMBRELLA 
ORGANIZATION OF ZIMBABWE NGOS, OPINED THAT THE ZDERA AND 
THREAT OF EU SANCTIONS HAD SOMEWHAT SOFTENED THE GOZ'S 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00284  02 OF 04  310831Z 
HARSH ATTITUDE TOWARD THE WEST.  IN THEIR OPINION, THE 
U.S. RESPONSE SHOULD BE ROBUST, AND AN INCREMENTAL 
APPLICATION OF SANCTIONS ON LEADERS WOULD BE MOST 
EFFECTIVE.  THE ZESN CHIEFS ALSO NOTED THAT SOME 
ZIMBABWEANS STILL BELIEVE THAT THE ZDERA IMPOSES 
ECONOMIC SANCTIONS ON ZIMBABWE; MORE PUBLIC STATEMENTS 
OR EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON THE LAW WOULD HELP STEM THE 
CONFUSION.  MARY NDLOVU, A TRUSTEE OF THE LEGAL 
RESOURCES FOUNDATION NGO, WAS MORE POINTED AND SAID 
ZIMBABWEANS WANT TO SEE THEIR LEADERS PUNISHED.  "WHY IS 
IT TAKING SO LONG TO ENACT?" SHE ASKED RHETORICALLY. 
PAUL TEMBA-NYATHI, THE MDC'S ELECTIONS DIRECTOR, 
DIFFERED BY SAYING ANY ZDERA RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE 
IMPOSED IMMEDIATELY TO LET THE GOZ KNOW THAT THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY FINDS ITS ACTIONS UNACCEPTABLE. 
"WOULD THIS NOT LEAD TO A STATE OF EMERGENCY BEFORE THE 
ELECTION?" THE AMBASSADOR ASKED.  NO, A DE FACTO STATE 
OF EMERGENCY ALREADY EXISTS, TEMBA-NYATHI OPINED. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
CATALOGUE OF HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES GROWING 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) THE CRANER DELEGATION, ACCOMPANIED BY AMBASSADOR 
SULLIVAN AND POLOFF, TRAVELED ABOUT 100 KM SOUTHEAST OF 
HARARE TO CHIPESA FARM, WHICH IS OWNED BY MDC ACTIVISTS 
IAN AND KERRY KAY.  GATHERED AT THE FARM WERE TWO OTHER 
COMMERCIAL FARMERS, FIVE FARM WORKERS, AND A RESETTLED 
BLACK FARMER.  THE FARM WORKERS MATTER-OF-FACTLY 
DESCRIBED THE NIGHTLY BEATINGS THEY RECEIVE WITH WHIPS 
AND CHAINS BY ZANU-PF YOUTHS, THE BURNING DOWN OF THEIR 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00284  02 OF 04  310831Z 
HOMES, AND THE CONSTANT HARASSMENT AND DEATH THREATS. 
ONE WORKER HAD PHOTOGRAPHS OF HIS BACK WHERE HE HAD BEEN 
STRUCK FOUR TIMES WITH AN AX.  THEIR CHILDREN DON'T GO 
TO SCHOOL AND OTHER CO-WORKERS ARE SO FEARFUL THAT THEY 
SLEEP IN THE BUSH FOR WEEKS AT A TIME.  ALL THE WHILE 
THEY ARE TOLD TO STOP WORKING FOR THE KAYS AND TO VOTE 
FOR ZANU-PF.  MOST OF THE ZANU-PF YOUTH ARE BROUGHT IN 
FROM HARARE OR FAR-AWAY COMMUNAL FARMS.  THEY RECENTLY 
COLLECTED 10 OLDER CHILDREN FROM THE FARM FOR TRAINING 
AT THE BORDER GEZI NATIONAL YOUTH SERVICE TRAINING 
CENTER NEAR MOUNT DARWIN.  THE KAYS STATED THAT THE 
INTIMIDATION IS DESIGNED BY ZANU-PF TO FORCE THEIR 
WORKERS TO LEAVE SO THAT THEIR FARM GOES OUT OF BUSINESS 
AND THEY CAN NO LONGER SUPPORT THE MDC.  THE GOZ SEES 
THEM AS A THREAT. 
 
¶7.  (C) THE RESETTLED BLACK FARMER LAID BARE THE GOZ'S 
CLAIMS THAT ITS LAND RESETTLEMENT SCHEME IS FOR THE 
BENEFIT OF "THE PEOPLE."  HE STATED THAT HE HAS LIVED 
AND WORKED ON NEARBY LAND MADE AVAILABLE TO HIM BY THE 
GOZ IN 1984.  HE HAD DONE WELL RAISING MAIZE BY APPLYING 
HIMSELF AND HIS SKILLS.  HOWEVER, THIS YEAR, ZANU-PF 
SUPPORTERS BURNED ALL HIS CROPS TO "MAKE AN EXAMPLE" OUT 
OF HIM FOR HIS VILLAGE.  APPARENTLY HIS TRADING TIES 
WITH THE KAYS WERE GROUNDS FOR BEING TARGETED.  TARCY 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5567 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00284  03 OF 04  310831Z 
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                  ------------------5FDE28  310831Z /38 
P 310819Z JAN 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0844 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 000284 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/12 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: A/S CRANER MESSAGE TO ZIMBABWE GOVERNMENT: YOU 
ARE PULLING THE TRIGGER OF SANCTIONS 
 
ZIMBITI, ACTING DIRECTOR OF THE CATHOLIC COMMISSION FOR 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00284  03 OF 04  310831Z 
JUSTICE AND PEACE (CCJP), IN A SEPARATE MEETING, SAID 
ZANU-PF IS GOING AS FAR AS BEATING UP ITS OWN SUPPORTERS 
SO IT CAN SAY THE MDC IS PERPETRATING VIOLENCE. 
 
¶8.  (C) SEVERAL INTERLOCUTORS, INCLUDING HIGH COURT 
JUSTICE FERGUS BLACKIE, TOLD THE CRANER DELEGATION THAT 
THE GOZ INVESTIGATION AND PROSECUTION OF POLITICAL 
VIOLENCE CASES HAS BEEN HIGHLY SELECTIVE.  MANY TIMES 
THE HIGH COURT HAS POINTED OUT TO THE MINISTRY OF 
JUSTICE, WHICH CONDUCTS PROSECUTIONS, WHO SHOULD BE 
ARRESTED AND PROSECUTED FOR POLITICALLY-MOTIVATED 
CRIMES.  WHENEVER ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS ARE INVOLVED, 
USUALLY NOTHING IS DONE; HOWEVER, IF SOMEONE FROM THE 
MDC CAN BE BLAMED, THOSE CASES ARE MOVED TO THE FRONT OF 
THE COURT DOCKET, BLACKIE AND JUSTICE MOHAMED ALI ADAM 
REMARKED. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
REPRESSIVE LEGISLATION IS PART OF THE PLAN 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶9.  (C) A COMMON TOPIC IN A/S CRANER'S MEETINGS WAS THE 
RECENTLY PASSED PUBLIC ORDER AND SECURITY ACT (POSA) AND 
GENERAL LAWS AMENDMENTS ACT, WHICH ALTERED THE ELECTORAL 
ACT IN ZANU-PF'S FAVOR.  THE ZESN REPRESENTATIVES SAID 
THE ELECTORAL ACT, AS AMENDED, REQUIRES ALL VOTER 
EDUCATION TO BE CARRIED OUT BY THE ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY 
COMMISSION (ESC).  IT ALSO GIVES THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL, 
WHO IS REGARDED AS A ZANU-PF SYMPATHIZER, MORE CONTROL 
OVER THE ELECTORAL PROCESS AND COULD CREATE MORE 
OPPORTUNITIES FOR VOTE-RIGGING.  ZESN SAID IT IS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00284  03 OF 04  310831Z 
IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THAT THE AMENDMENTS DO NOT "BAN 
THE MDC" OR "BAN NGOS" AS SOME PRESS REPORTS WOULD HAVE 
IT, BUT THEY DO PLACE GREATER RESTRICTIONS ON THE 
ACTIVITIES OF THE OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY.  TARCY 
ZIMBITI OF THE CCJP SAID THAT BECAUSE OF THE VOTER 
EDUCATION RESTRICTIONS, HIS ORGANIZATION IS NOW 
DESCRIBING ITS EDUCATIONAL ACTIVITIES AS "SOCIAL 
TEACHINGS OF THE CHURCH" AS AN (UNTESTED) WAY AROUND THE 
NEW LAW.  MATCHABA-HOVE OF ZESN REMARKED THAT THE 
CHURCHES ARE NOW THE ONLY PRACTICAL VEHICLE FOR VOTER 
EDUCATION IN ZIMBABWE SINCE 75 PERCENT OF ZIMBABWEANS 
ARE CHURCH-GOING CHRISTIANS. 
 
¶10.  (C) THE POSA IS A MATTER OF CONCERN FOR ZESN 
MEMBERS IN THE WAY IT COULD BE USED TO LIMIT CAMPAIGNING 
FOR POLITICAL PARTIES AND FOR GENERAL VOTER EDUCATION. 
PEARSON NHERERE, A PROMINENT ATTORNEY AND TRUSTEE OF THE 
LEGAL RESOURCES FOUNDATION (LRF), STATED THAT THE POSA 
"SEVERELY RESTRICTS PUBLIC GATHERINGS, WHETHER THEY BE 
ON THE STREET OR IN A BUILDING."  ASKED BY PDAS 
CARPENTER WHY ZANU-PF HAD SO FAR FAILED TO PASS THE 
DRACONIAN ACCESS TO INFORMATION BILL AND LABOR RELATIONS 
AMENDMENT BILL, NHERERE STATED THAT THOSE BILLS ARE PART 
OF ZANU-PF'S LONG-TERM STRATEGY FOR STAYING IN POWER AND 
PROVIDE LITTLE ADDED BENEFIT FOR THIS ELECTION.  THEY 
CONTAIN PROVISIONS THAT WOULD NOT BRING THEM INTO EFFECT 
UNTIL THREE MONTHS AFTER THEIR PASSAGE; THE ELECTION IS 
ALREADY LESS THAN SIX WEEKS AWAY.  APOLITICAL 
ORGANIZATIONS LIKE THE NATIONAL AIDS COUNCIL ARE 
CANCELING OUTREACH PROGRAMS OUT OF FEAR OF BEING 
PROSECUTED UNDER THE NEWLY PASSED POSA, ACCORDING TO 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00284  03 OF 04  310831Z 
MARY NDLOVU OF LRF. 
 
------------ 
THE ELECTION 
------------ 
 
¶11.  (C) IN MEETING WITH ESC CHAIRMAN SOBUSA GULA- 
NDEBELE (A GOZ APPOINTEE), A/S CRANER NOTED THAT THE 
STANDARD FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS IS A GLOBAL ONE -- 
NOT JUST AN AMERICAN OR BRITISH ONE -- AND ASKED FOR THE 
CHAIRMAN'S ASSESSMENT OF WHERE THE ESC STANDS ON 
PREPARING FOR THE MARCH 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. 
GULA-NDEBELE IMPLIED THAT THE ESC WAS BEHIND SCHEDULE IN 
ITS PREPARATIONS AND IT WOULD BE A "RUSH" JOB TO FIND 
AND TRAIN ALL THE ELECTION MONITORS IT NEEDS; BUT HE 
ALSO NOTED THAT THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL IS RESPONSIBLE FOR 
CONDUCTING THE ELECTION, WHEREAS THE ESC MERELY 
SUPERVISES THEM.  IN HIS ONLY MILD CRITICISM OF THE GOZ, 
THE CHAIRMAN COMPLAINED THAT THE ESC HAS NOT BEEN GIVEN 
ENOUGH RESOURCES TO DO ITS JOB.  IT WOULD NEED AN 
ADDITIONAL ZIM$500 MILLION (US$1.72 MILLION) TO CARRY 
OUT ITS MISSION PROPERLY, HE STATED. 
 
¶12.  (C) IN RESPONDING TO USG CONCERNS, GULA-NDEBELE 
STATED THAT IT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ONE TO 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5569 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00284  04 OF 04  310832Z 
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                  ------------------5FDE35  310832Z /38 
P 310819Z JAN 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0845 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 000284 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/12 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: A/S CRANER MESSAGE TO ZIMBABWE GOVERNMENT: YOU 
ARE PULLING THE TRIGGER OF SANCTIONS 
 
TAMPER WITH BALLOT BOXES AFTER ELECTION POLLING -- PARTY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00284  04 OF 04  310832Z 
AGENTS AND ESC MONITORS WOULD BE WITH THE BOXES AT ALL 
TIMES UNTIL THE VOTES ARE COUNTED.  THE BOXES ARE 
GUARDED OVERNIGHT AFTER THE FIRST DAY OF VOTING, AND 
THEY ARE NOT MOVED TO THE COUNTING CENTERS UNTIL AFTER 
THE POLLING STATIONS ARE CLOSED ON THE SECOND DAY. 
ARMED POLICE, ACCOMPANIED BY THE PARTY AGENTS AND 
MONITORS, TAKE THE BOXES TO THE COUNTING CENTERS, WHERE 
THE VOTES ARE COUNTED, UNCLEARLY MARKED BALLOTS 
EXAMINED, AND SPOILED BALLOTS TABULATED.  THE CHAIRMAN 
COMMENTED THAT THE DECEMBER CHEGUTU MAYORAL ELECTION IN 
WHICH THE MDC CANDIDATE WON SHOWED THAT THERE IS NO VOTE 
MANIPULATION.  THE AMBASSADOR NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT A 
HIGH NUMBER OF SPOILED BALLOTS COULD SKEW THE RESULTS, 
TO WHICH GULA-NDEBELE REPLIED THAT THE NUMBER IS 
NORMALLY VERY LOW.  RESPONDING TO CONCERNS THAT THE 
NUMBER OF POLLING STATIONS HAS DECREASED IN RECENT 
ELECTIONS (THEREBY MAKING VOTER PARTICIPATION MORE 
DIFFICULT), GULA-NDEBELE CLAIMED THAT THERE HAS BEEN AN 
INCREASE IN POLLING STATIONS IN RURAL AREAS, AND THAT 
THE MINISTRY OF JUSTICE SAYS THERE SHOULD BE MORE THERE. 
 
¶13.  (C) ZESN'S NATIONAL COORDINATOR STATED THAT BY 
HOLDING THE HARARE MAYORAL ELECTION AT THE SAME TIME AS 
THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, THE GOZ INTENDS TO DRAW MDC 
MONITORS AWAY FROM ZANU-PF STRONGHOLDS IN THE RURAL 
AREAS.  THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME CONFUSION OVER WHICH 
BALLOT GOES IN WHICH BOX, WHICH COULD BENEFIT ZANU-PF. 
THE FARM WORKERS AT CHIPESA FARM SAID THAT DESPITE THE 
INTENSE INTIMIDATION IN RURAL AREAS, PEOPLE ARE NOT 
AFRAID TO VOTE, NOR DO THEY INTEND TO VOTE FOR ZANU-PF. 
MDC VICE-PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA, IN A SEPARATE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00284  04 OF 04  310832Z 
MEETING, ECHOED THIS REFRAIN, SAYING PEOPLE ARE 
DETERMINED TO VOTE AND THAT THEY HAVE ALREADY MADE UP 
THEIR MINDS TO VOTE FOR MDC.  EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NO 
HOPE OF A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION, IT IS NOT EVEN AN 
OPTION UNDER CONSIDERATION BY THE MDC TO BOYCOTT THE 
ELECTION, SIBANDA ADDED. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
NO CONSENSUS ON ELECTION OUTCOME OR AFTERMATH 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶14.  (C) WHEN ASKED ABOUT WHO IS LIKELY TO WIN THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, MOST OF THE DELEGATION'S 
INTERLOCUTORS WERE DIVIDED.  MDC ELECTIONS DIRECTOR 
TEMBA-NYATHI STATED THAT HE HAD TO REMAIN OPTIMISTIC 
THAT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI WOULD PREVAIL DESPITE THE 
TREMENDOUS OBSTACLES.  LOCALLY WELL-KNOWN POLITICAL 
COMMENTATORS, INCLUDING CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE CHAIRMAN 
BRIAN RAFTOPOLOUS, TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL CHAIRMAN 
JOHN MAKUMBE, TRANSPARENCY DIRECTOR ANDREW NONGOGO, AND 
ZIMBABWE LIBERATORS PLATFORM CHAIRMAN WILFRED MHANDA, 
COULD NOT AGREE ON WHO THE ULTIMATE WINNER WOULD BE. 
MHANDA WAS ADAMANT THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE WOULD DO 
ABSOLUTELY ANYTHING TO WIN THE ELECTION REGARDLESS OF 
THE CONSEQUENCES, WHEREAS NONGOGO ARGUED THAT MUGABE 
STILL VALUES THE LEGITIMACY THAT AN ELECTION CONVEYS AND 
WOULD NOT BLATANTLY RIG THE VOTE, EVEN IF IT MEANT 
RISKING A LOSS. 
 
¶15.  (C) ON THE ELECTION AFTERMATH, A SINGLE SCENARIO 
DID NOT EMERGE, BUT VIOLENCE WAS THE MOST COMMON 
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INGREDIENT.  A/S CRANER RELAYED TO THE MDC LEADERSHIP 
THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WAS COUNTING ON THE MDC 
TO CHANNEL ZIMBABWEANS' ANGER IF THE ELECTION WERE 
STOLEN.  SEKAI HOLLAND, THE MDC'S INTERNATIONAL 
RELATIONS SECRETARY, COMMENTED THAT IT IS GETTING MORE 
DIFFICULT TO CONTROL YOUTHS AND OTHERS WHO ARE 
INCREASINGLY DETERMINED TO RETALIATE IN THE FACE OF 
ZANU-PF'S INTIMIDATION.  SIBANDA SAID THE MDC LEADERSHIP 
WOULD DO ITS BEST TO RESTRAIN THE PARTY'S SUPPORTERS, 
BUT HE FULLY EXPECTS THE MDC YOUTH TO DEFY THE 
LEADERSHIP'S CALLS FOR RESTRAINT IF THE MDC LOSES. 
TARCY ZIMBITI OF THE CCJP SAID IF TSVANGIRAI WINS, THE 
COUNTRY COULD PLUMMET INTO A LOW-INTENSITY CIVIL WAR 
WHERE RESETTLED FARMERS REFUSE TO GIVE UP LAND GIVEN TO 
THEM BY ZANU-PF; ALTERNATIVELY, IF MUGABE WINS, HE 
EXPECTS THE HIGH-DENSITY SUBURBS TO ERUPT IN VIOLENCE. 
 
¶16.  (U) A/S LORNE CRANER AND PDAS SCOTT CARPENTER 
CLEARED THIS MESSAGE. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
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