This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

300952Z Nov 01


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8374

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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0441
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY OSLO 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM 
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA

C O N F I D E N T I A L  HARARE 003597 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 11/29/11 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: MDC WILL NOT BOYCOTT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. 
REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) MDC LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI TOLD THE AMBASSADOR ON 
NOVEMBER 27 THAT RAMPANT MANIPULATION OF THE ELECTORAL PROCESS AND 
INTENSIFYING VIOLENCE AGAINST OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS CONFIRM THAT 
THE RULING PARTY IS PREPARED TO WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION BY 
ANY MEANS.  DESPITE THE UNLIKELY PROSPECTS FOR A FREE AND FAIR 
VOTE, THE MDC WOULD NOT BOYCOTT, AS "PEOPLE HAVE SACRIFICED TOO 
MUCH."  TSVANGIRAI SAID INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS SHOULD BE IN PLACE 
AT LEAST SIX WEEKS BEFORE THE ELECTION IN ORDER TO CONDUCT A 
CREDIBLE ASSESSMENT AND HE WOULD EMPHASIZE THIS POINT WITH AF 
ASSISTANT SECRETARY KANSTEINER IN THE LATTER'S UPCOMING VISIT TO 
ZIMBABWE.  THE MDC LEADER CONFIRMED THAT HIS PARTY AND ZANU-PF 
REMAIN ENGAGED IN "VERY LOW-KEY, EXPLORATORY" TALKS FOCUSED NOT ON 
POWER-SHARING BUT ON HOW TO RESTORE NORMALITY TO THE COUNTRY. 
TSVANGIRAI EXPRESSED HOPE THAT THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY AND 
 
SIPDIS 
ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT WOULD PASS SOON.  END SUMMARY. 
 
USG POSITION 
------------ 
 
¶2.  (C) IN A NOVEMBER 27 CONVERSATION WITH MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN 
TSVANGIRAI IN THE OPPOSITION LEADER'S OFFICE, THE AMBASSADOR, 
 
SIPDIS 
ACCOMPANIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF, CONVEYED THE USG POSITION 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03597  010817Z 
THAT CONDITIONS DO NOT NOW EXIST IN ZIMBABWE FOR FREE AND FAIR 
ELECTIONS.  IT WAS OUR VIEW, HOWEVER, THAT THERE IS STILL TIME TO 
CREATE THOSE CONDITIONS, AND THE UNITED STATES WANTED TO BE 
HELPFUL IN THAT PROCESS IF POSSIBLE.  THE AMBASSADOR SAID WE WOULD 
CONTINUE TO PRESS THE IMPORTANCE OF ADMITTING INTERNATIONAL 
OBSERVERS AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.  HE REPORTED THAT AF ASSISTANT 
SECRETARY KANSTEINER WOULD BE IN ZIMBABWE DECEMBER 8-11 AND HOPED 
 
SIPDIS 
TO BE ABLE TO MEET WITH TSVANGIRAI.  THE AMBASSADOR THEN SOLICITED 
THE OPPOSITION LEADER'S ASSESSMENT OF RECENT POLITICAL 
DEVELOPMENTS. 
 
ELECTORAL MACHINATIONS 
---------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) THE GOZ, TSVANGIRAI BEGAN, IS DETERMINED TO WIN THE 
ELECTION USING ALL MEANS, AND WANTS TO ENSURE A PREDETERMINED 
OUTCOME.  MANIPULATION OF THE ELECTORAL PROCESS IS RAMPANT, AS 
GOVERNMENT SEEKS TO DISENFRANCHISE LARGE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE.  THE 
MDC, HE SAID, PLANNED THE FOLLOWING DAY TO FILE SUIT CHALLENGING 
THE ONEROUS REQUIREMENTS BEING IMPOSED ON ZIMBABWEANS WHO ARE 
TRYING TO REGISTER TO VOTE.  THAT MORNING, HE SAID, HIS 18 YEAR- 
OLD DAUGHTER HAD INITIALLY BEEN TURNED AWAY WHEN SHE WENT TO 
REGISTER, TOLD EITHER TO PRODUCE PROOF OF RESIDENCE OR TO BRING 
HER FATHER TO THE OFFICE.  THE ELECTORAL OFFICIAL ONLY RELENTED 
UNDER PRESSURE FROM THE GIRL'S BODYGUARDS.  "IF THIS CAN HAPPEN TO 
MY DAUGHTER IN HARARE," TSVANGIRAI ASSERTED, "IMAGINE WHAT IS 
HAPPENING IN ISOLATED RURAL AREAS." 
 
¶4.  (C) THE ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMISSION (ESC), TSVANGIRAI 
LAMENTED, HAS NOT PERFORMED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LAW.  IT IS 
SUPPOSED TO ENSURE THAT THE ELECTORAL PROCESS IS CARRIED OUT 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03597  010817Z 
FAIRLY AND CONSISTENT WITH LAID-DOWN RULES, BUT MUCH OF ITS 
AUTHORITY HAS BEEN USURPED BY THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL.  TSVANGIRAI 
DESCRIBED THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL, TOBAIWA MUDEDE, AS A ZANU-PF 
PARTISAN, WHO ACTS LIKE A REFEREE WHO THROWS AWAY HIS WHISTLE AND 
JOINS ONE TEAM.  ASKED WHETHER THE MDC HAS ACCESS TO THE ELECTORAL 
SUPERVISORY COMMISSION (ESC), TSVANGIRAI SAID THE PARTY'S 
ELECTIONS DIRECTOR WAS SEEKING A MEETING WITH ESC CHAIRMAN SOBUSA 
GULA-NDEBELE.  HE DISMISSED THE ESC MEMBERS AS "ZANU-PF ZEALOTS" 
BUT THOUGHT GULA-NDEBELE'S BACKGROUND AS A LAWYER MIGHT MAKE HIM 
MORE MODERATE THAN HIS COLLEAGUES.  THE AMBASSADOR ENCOURAGED THE 
MDC TO MEET WITH THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL AS WELL.  TSVANGIRAI AGREED 
IT WAS IMPORTANT TO TRY.  THE BOTTOM LINE, THOUGH, IS THAT 
ZIMBABWEANS DO NOT HAVE A NON-PARTISAN BODY MONITORING THE 
ELECTION PROCESS. HE SAID THE MDC MIGHT PROPOSE IN ITS INTER-PARTY 
DIALOGUE WITH ZANU-PF (SEE PARA 8 BELOW) FORMATION OF AN ELECTORAL 
COMMISSION COMPRISING BOTH RULING PARTY AND MDC REPRESENTATIVES, A 
STEP THAT COULD OBVIATE THE NEED IN THE SHORT-TERM FOR AN 
INDEPENDENT ELECTORAL BODY. 
 
¶5.  (C) TSVANGIRAI RAISED THE ISSUE OF INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS, 
SAYING THE MDC ASSESSMENT WAS THAT OBSERVER GROUPS NEEDED TO BE IN 
PLACE AT LEAST SIX WEEKS IN ADVANCE OF THE ELECTION IN ORDER TO DO 
A CREDIBLE ASSESSMENT.  HE SAID HE WOULD SHARE THAT VIEW WITH A/S 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 003597 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 05        HARARE  03597  010817Z 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 11/29/11 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: MDC WILL NOT BOYCOTT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
 
KANSTEINER DURING THE LATTER'S VISIT TO ZIMBABWE.  ASKED WHETHER 
THE MDC HAS THE CAPACITY TO ASSIGN ITS OWN PARTY AGENTS TO EVERY 
POLLING STATION, TSVANGIRAI SAID THEY HAVE ENOUGH PEOPLE.  THE 
PROBLEM IS THAT, IN ISOLATED AREAS, THE PARTY AGENTS ARE VERY 
VULNERABLE AND "TAKE LOTS OF ABUSE." 
 
MORE VIOLENCE BUT BOYCOTT NOT AN OPTION 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) ACCORDING TO TSVANGIRAI, THE GOZ HAS STEPPED UP ITS 
INTIMIDATION CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE MDC "BY LABELING US TERRORISTS." 
HE INSISTED THAT THE MDC HAD HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH THE CAIN NKALA 
MURDER, WHICH WAS LIKELY AN INSIDE JOB.  NONETHELESS, THAT 
UNFORTUNATE INCIDENT WAS BEING USED AS A PRETEXT BY THE GOZ AND 
ZANU-PF TO CRACK DOWN ON THE OPPOSITION PARTY.  THE GOVERNMENT'S 
CASE WAS UNRAVELING, HOWEVER, AS TWO KEY WITNESSES IN THE CASE HAD 
TOLD JOURNALISTS THEIR "CONFESSIONS" HAD BEEN ERRONEOUS AND 
EXTRACTED UNDER TORTURE.  ACCORDING TO TSVANGIRAI, SIX MDC 
SUPPORTERS HELD IN THE CASE HAD BEEN RELEASED, LEAVING ONLY FIVE 
OR SIX STILL UNDER DETENTION.  HE EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT ZANU-PF 
SUPPORTERS ARE NOW GOING HOUSE-TO-HOUSE BEATING MDC SUPPORTERS IN 
CHEGUTU, A TOWN 100 KM SOUTHWEST OF HARARE WHICH IS DUE TO HOLD A 
MAYORAL ELECTION DECEMBER 8-9. 
 
¶7.  (C) TSVANGIRAI SAID SOME HAVE URGED THE MDC TO BOYCOTT NEXT 
YEAR'S ELECTION, SINCE CURRENT CONDITIONS WOULD PRECLUDE A FREE 
AND FAIR VOTE.  TSVANGIRAI REJECTED THE SUGGESTION OUT OF HAND, 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 06        HARARE  03597  010817Z 
SAYING A BOYCOTT IS NOT EVEN BEING CONSIDERED.  HE SAID THE MDC 
WOULD COMPETE EVEN IF IT HAS TO LIMP INTO THE ELECTION.  "PEOPLE 
HAVE SACRIFICED TOO MUCH FOR US TO DO OTHERWISE," TSVANGIRAI 
DECLARED. 
 
INTER-PARTY DIALOGUE 
-------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) ACCORDING TO TSVANGIRAI, ZANU-PF AND THE MDC REMAIN 
ENGAGED IN "EXPLORATORY" ATTEMPTS AT INTER-PARTY DIALOGUE.  THE 
TALKS ARE "VERY LOW-KEY" AND HAVE NOT EVEN BEEN BROUGHT TO THE 
ATTENTION OF HIS OWN NATIONAL PARTY EXECUTIVE.  HE EMPHASIZED THAT 
THESE DISCUSSIONS ARE NOT ABOUT POWER-SHARING BUT ABOUT HOW TO 
RETURN THE COUNTRY TO NORMALITY.  TSVANGIRAI SAID THE MDC HAS TOLD 
ZANU-PF VIA THIS CHANNEL THAT AN ELECTORAL CODE OF CONDUCT IS 
IMPERATIVE AND THAT, IF THERE IS AGREEMENT ON SUCH A DOCUMENT, THE 
MDC WOULD BE WILLING TO CONSIDER A DELAY IN THE ELECTION.  ASKED 
WHETHER THE MDC WOULD JOIN ZANU-PF IN APPEALING FOR CALM AND AN 
END TO THE VIOLENCE, TSVANGIRAI SAID HE WOULD DO SO 
"ENTHUSIASTICALLY."  THE MDC, HE ASSERTED, HAS ACTED AS A 
"RESTRAINING FACTOR" IN ZIMBABWE'S CHARGED ATMOSPHERE BECAUSE THE 
PARTY IS COMMITTED TO "PEACEFUL DEMOCRATIC DISCOURSE."  THE 
AMBASSADOR REMARKED THAT ANY PROGRESS IN THIS CHANNEL WOULD BE A 
POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT AND SAID THE USG WAS PREPARED TO BE HELPFUL 
IN ANY WAY IT COULD. 
 
CAMPAIGNING 
----------- 
 
¶9.  (C) THE AMBASSADOR ASKED WHETHER TSVANGIRAI IS ABLE TO MOVE 
FREELY AROUND THE COUNTRY.  TSVANGIRAI REPLIED THAT HE HAD 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 07        HARARE  03597  010817Z 
ADDRESSED TWO RALLIES THE WEEKEND BEFORE NEAR CHIREDZI, IN 
SOUTHEASTERN ZIMBABWE, AND HE HAD NOT EXPERIENCED ANY SERIOUS 
PROBLEMS.  POLICE WERE IN ATTENDANCE, BUT THEY CONSTITUTED MORE OF 
A THREATENING PRESENCE THAN A PROTECTIVE ONE.  TSVANGIRAI SAID HE 
DOES NOT ENJOY THE SAME FREEDOM IN MASHONALAND CENTRAL, A PROVINCE 
WHICH IS LARGELY A NO-GO AREA FOR THE MDC.  INSTEAD OF HOLDING 
LARGE RALLIES THERE, THE PARTY BRINGS ITS SUPPORTERS FOR TRAINING 
TO HARARE, THEN SENDS THEM BACK TO ENGAGE IN DISCREET DOOR-TO-DOOR 
CAMPAIGNING, PRIMARILY WITH FRIENDS AND FAMILY. 
 
ZDERA 
----- 
 
¶10.  (C) THE MDC LEADER EXPRESSED HIS HOPE THAT THE ZIMBABWE 
DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA) WOULD BE PASSED SOON. 
THE AMBASSADOR REPLIED THAT RECENT POLITICAL EVENTS HAVE LIKELY 
INCREASED THE INCLINATION OF THE U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES TO 
MOVE FORWARD QUICKLY ON THIS LEGISLATION. (NOTE: ZDERA WAS 
APPROVED BY THE HOUSE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS COMMITTEE THE 
FOLLOWING DAY.  END NOTE.) 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶11.  (C) TSVANGIRAI SEEMED TIRED -- LIKELY A RESULT OF 
GOVERNMENT'S INTENSIFIED CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE MDC OVER THE LAST 
SEVERAL WEEKS -- BUT HE REMAINED UPBEAT.  HE WAS CLEARLY 
DETERMINED TO CONTEST THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION NO MATTER HOW MUCH 
PRESSURE HE AND HIS PARTY ARE SUBJECTED TO.  TSVANGIRAI'S POINT 
ABOUT THE SACRIFICES MADE TO DATE BY THE MDC'S SUPPORTERS IS SPOT 
ON, BUT HE ALSO REALIZES THAT THIS IS A POLITICALLY SAVVY 
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PAGE 08        HARARE  03597  010817Z 
POSITION.  MANY ZIMBABWEANS ARE ANXIOUS TO CAST VOTES IN THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND WANT AN ALTERNATIVE TO MUGABE ON THE 
BALLOT; TSVANGIRAI WOULD NEVER BE FORGIVEN BY HIS SUPPORTERS IF HE 
WITHDREW FROM THE RACE OR IF THE PARTY OPTED OUT ON ELECTION DAY. 
WE FOUND ODD HIS EXPRESSED WILLINGNESS TO CONSIDER A DELAY IN THE 
ELECTION IF MDC AND ZANU-PF AGREE ON AN ELECTORAL CODE OF CONDUCT, 
AS WE UNDERSTAND THAT THE CONSTITUTION PERMITS NO FLEXIBILITY FOR 
POSTPONING THE ELECTION BEYOND MARCH 31, 2002.  IT IS GOOD THAT 
ZANU-PF AND THE MDC CONTINUE TO TALK, AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO 
ENCOURAGE SUCH A DIALOGUE, BUT OUR EXPECTATIONS ARE NOT HIGH. 
THEIR SECRET DISCUSSIONS HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR MORE THAN A YEAR, 
AND THE FACT THAT THEY REMAIN "EXPLORATORY" AND "VERY LOW-KEY" 
DOES NOT PROVIDE MUCH HOPE FOR A BREAKTHROUGH. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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