This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.



                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5492

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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0398
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 003558 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/11 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI
SUBJECT: EXPECT HUGE VOTER TURNOUT IN ZIMBABWE, 
POLITICAL POLLSTER TELLS AMBASSADOR 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLOFF TODD C. FAULK FOR REASONS: 1.5 (B) 
AND (D). 
 
¶1.  (C) ON NOVEMBER 26, AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN, ACCOMPANIED 
BY POLOFF, MET MASIPULA SITHOLE, THE CHAIR OF THE 
UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE POLITICAL SCIENCE DEPARTMENT, 
COLUMNIST, AND DIRECTOR OF THE HARARE-BASED MASS PUBLIC 
OPINION INSTITUTE.  SITHOLE REPORTED THAT HIS 
ORGANIZATION IS CURRENTLY COMPILING THE RESULTS OF A 
NATIONWIDE SURVEY RECENTLY CONDUCTED TO UNCOVER THE 
EXTENT OF VOTER APATHY IN ZIMBABWE.  SURPRISINGLY, 
SITHOLE SAID THE INITIAL FINDINGS ARE POINTING TO AN 89 
TO 90 PERCENT TURNOUT IN THE EARLY 2002 PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION, WHICH WOULD BE THE SECOND HIGHEST TURNOUT 
SINCE ZIMBABWE'S INDEPENDENCE.  IT WOULD ALSO REPRESENT 
A MAJOR TURNAROUND FROM THE PREDOMINANT ELECTORAL TREND 
OF DECLINING VOTER PARTICIPATION SINCE INDEPENDENCE.  TO 
ILLUSTRATE, SITHOLE STATED THAT 94 PERCENT VOTED IN 
1980, 84 PERCENT IN 1985, 54 PERCENT IN 1990, 54 PERCENT 
IN 1995 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, 31 PERCENT IN THE 1996 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, AND 48 PERCENT IN THE 2000 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. 
 
TOO LATE FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTION? 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (C) SITHOLE THANKED THE AMBASSADOR FOR HIS RECENT 
PUBLIC STATEMENT SAYING THAT THE U.S. WAS NOT INCLINED 
TO RECOGNIZE THE RESULTS OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
UNLESS POLITICAL CONDITIONS IMPROVED.  THIS IS A POINT 
THE U.S. SHOULD BE MAKING "A LOT LOUDER," THE PROFESSOR 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03558  01 OF 02  271549Z 
OPINED.  MUGABE MUST BE WARNED OF DISINCENTIVES IF HE 
DOES NOT HOLD A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION; HOWEVER, THERE 
HAS NEVER BEEN ONE IN INDEPENDENT ZIMBABWE, SITHOLE 
CONTINUED.  IN 1990, WHEN FORMER ZANU-PF REFORMER EDGAR 
TEKERE RAN AGAINST MUGABE, THERE WAS PLENTY OF "VIOLENCE 
AND SHOOTINGS."  WHEN ASKED IF HIS INSTITUTE PLANNED TO 
CONDUCT A SURVEY ON PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES, HE STATED 
THE RESULTS OF ONE WOULD BE COMING OUT BY LATE JANUARY. 
 
AN UNHAPPY EXIT AWAITS MUGABE 
----------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE IS BENT ON WINNING THE ELECTION 
BY "HOOK OR CROOK," BUT WHEN THE PEOPLE TAKE TO THE 
STREETS, AN "UNHAPPY EXIT" WILL BE INEVITABLE FOR 
MUGABE, THE PROFESSOR PREDICTED.  IF DISINCENTIVES DID 
NOT CONVINCE HIM TO HOLD A FREE ELECTION, THEN AT THIS 
POINT, AN EXIT PACKAGE OF INCENTIVES FOR MUGABE TO 
RELINQUISH POWER WOULD BE "APPROPRIATE."  THE ARMY WOULD 
UNDERWRITE A SET OF ASSURANCES AND ACT AS NEGOTIATOR 
WITH TSVANGIRAI, WHO UNDERSTANDS THE NECESSITY OF 
LETTING MUGABE GO IN PEACE.  MUGABE KNOWS HE IS 
UNPOPULAR AND IS WORRIED ABOUT HIS PHYSICAL SECURITY -- 
OTHERWISE HE WOULD NOT BE CLINGING TO POWER SO 
DESPERATELY.  ASKED ABOUT MUGABE'S FINANCIAL SECURITY, 
SITHOLE SAID THIS IS NOT THE PRESIDENT'S PRIMARY 
CONCERN.  HE ALREADY HAS MORE THAN ENOUGH MONEY FOR HIM 
AND HIS FAMILY.  HOWEVER, IF GIVEN THE PROPER 
ASSURANCES, MUGABE WOULD LEAVE POWER, SITHOLE OPINED. 
 
A LITTLE HELP FROM MUGABE'S FRIENDS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03558  01 OF 02  271549Z 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) AMBASSADOR THEN INQUIRED WHETHER MUGABE'S INNER 
CIRCLE WOULD ACCEPT MUGABE'S DEPARTURE, AND SITHOLE SAID 
THEY WOULD IF THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE EXIT PACKAGE. 
ULTRALOYALISTS SUCH AS SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON 
MNANGAGWA -- AND PRESUMED HEIR TO THE MUGABE THRONE -- 
WOULD HAVE TO BE INCLUDED IN THE DEPARTURE DEAL.  EVEN 
THOUGH THERE ARE THOSE IN ZANU-PF WHO WILL AGAIN TRY TO 
PERSUADE MUGABE TO STEP ASIDE AT THIS YEAR'S RULING 
PARTY CONFERENCE, THEY WILL NOT SUCCEED.  ALL THOSE 
REFORMISTS WITH INFLUENCE, SUCH AS FORMER MINISTER 
EDDISON ZVOBGO, HAVE BEEN PUSHED ASIDE.  DEFENSE 
MINISTER SYDNEY SEKERAMAYI AND FORMER DEFENSE FORCES 
CHIEF SOLOMON MUJURU ARE "REASONABLE AND RATIONAL," BUT 
THEY ARE NOT MEMBERS OF MUGABE'S INNER CIRCLE. 
INFORMATION MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO -- WITH WHOM SITHOLE 
USED TO JOG IN THE U.S. AND AT THE UNIVERSITY OF 
ZIMBABWE -- COULD DIRECT TRANSITION EVENTS IN A POSITIVE 
WAY IF HE WAS PROPERLY APPROACHED AND GIVEN SIMILAR EXIT 
INCENTIVES, THE PROFESSOR OFFERED. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5493 
 
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P 271500Z NOV 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0399 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 003558 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/11 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI
SUBJECT: EXPECT HUGE VOTER TURNOUT IN ZIMBABWE, 
POLITICAL POLLSTER TELLS AMBASSADOR 
 
¶5.  (C) WE ARE SKEPTICAL OF SITHOLE'S "INITIAL FINDINGS" 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03558  02 OF 02  271549Z 
OF A PREDICTED 89-90 PERCENT VOTER TURNOUT IN THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  ALTHOUGH WE WOULD HAVE TO SEE 
THE POLL'S RESULTS AND METHODOLOGY, WE HAVE TO TEMPER 
THE INITIAL FINDINGS WITH THE OBSERVATION THAT LARGE 
NUMBERS OF PEOPLE ARE AFRAID TO EVEN RESPOND TO POLLING 
QUESTIONS.  REPORTEDLY, 50 PERCENT OF PEOPLE APPROACHED 
REFUSED TO PARTICIPATE IN AN AUTHORITATIVE SURVEY DUE 
OUT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IT IS AN EVEN BIGGER -- AND 
MORE CRITICAL -- LEAP FROM DESIRING A POLITICAL CHANGE 
AND ACTUALLY GOING TO THE POLLING BOOTH AND EXPRESSING 
THAT DESIRE UNDER THE CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING IN 
ZIMBABWE. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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