This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.



                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8282

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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0286
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 003410 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/11 
TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: FEW CHANGES EXPECTED AT UPCOMING 
ZANU-PF CONFERENCE 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLOFF TODD C. FAULK FOR REASONS: 1.5 (B) 
AND (D). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: THE ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY'S ANNUAL 
CONFERENCE HAS BEEN SCHEDULED FOR DECEMBER 13-16 IN 
VICTORIA FALLS.  NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE ZANU-PF 
LEADERSHIP ARE EXPECTED TO BE ANNOUNCED, AND THE 
CONFERENCE IS LIKELY TO REAFFIRM PRESIDENT MUGABE AS THE 
PARTY'S CANDIDATE FOR NEXT YEAR'S ELECTION.  OUR 
INTERLOCUTORS TELL US THAT THE DATES OF THE PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ANNOUNCED UNTIL AFTER 
ZANU-PF WRAPS UP ITS ANNUAL DOG AND PONY SHOW.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
ANNUAL CONFERENCE IN THE WORKS 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (C) FRED SHAVA, ZANU-PF'S DIRECTOR OF 
ADMINISTRATION, CONFIRMED WITH POLOFF ON NOVEMBER 13 
THAT ZANU-PF'S ANNUAL CONFERENCE WILL BE HELD IN 
VICTORIA FALLS DECEMBER 13-16.  ABOUT 7,000 DELEGATES 
REPRESENTING ALL 10 PROVINCES (THE PROVINCIAL COUNCILS 
WILL SELECT THEIR DELEGATES OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS) 
WILL BE ASSEMBLED UNDER A GIGANTIC TENT ON THE GOLF 
COURSE OF A LOCAL RESORT.  HARARE DIPLOMATS WILL BE 
INVITED TO ATTEND THE OPENING CEREMONY -- LIKELY TO BE 
HELD DECEMBER 14, A DAY AFTER REGISTRATION IS COMPLETED 
-- AND EMBASSIES SHOULD RECEIVE THEIR INVITATIONS BY THE 
END OF THE MONTH, THE DIRECTOR NOTED.  SHAVA DESCRIBED 
THE CONFERENCE AS THE PARTY'S ANNUAL "MANAGEMENT 
REVIEW," WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM A FIVE-YEAR CONGRESS. 
A CONGRESS IS TASKED WITH ELECTING THE PARTY'S 280- 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03410  01 OF 02  151326Z 
MEMBER CENTRAL COMMITTEE, WHEREAS NO LEADERSHIP CHANGES 
CAN BE MADE AT A CONFERENCE, SHAVA ASSERTED.  DEPUTY 
JUSTICE MINISTER PAUL MANGWANA TOLD POLOFF NOVEMBER 1 
THAT IT IS AGAINST ZANU-PF'S CONSTITUTION TO CHANGE THE 
PARTY LEADERSHIP OUTSIDE OF A FIVE-YEAR CONGRESS. 
CHANGES IN THE POLITBURO WERE MADE AT LAST YEAR'S 
CONGRESS ONLY BECAUSE THE PARTY CONSTITUTION HAD BEEN 
CHANGED TO PERMIT IT.  (NOTE: LAST YEAR'S ANNUAL 
GATHERING QUALIFIED AS A "SPECIAL" CONGRESS TO CONCLUDE 
UNFINISHED BUSINESS FROM 1999'S FIVE-YEAR CONGRESS.  END 
NOTE.)  WHEN ASKED ABOUT THIS YEAR'S AGENDA, SHAVA COYLY 
REMARKED THAT IT HAS NOT COME OUT YET, BUT SAID A 
"REAFFIRMATION" OF MUGABE'S CANDIDACY FOR NEXT YEAR'S 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS LIKELY. 
 
A FEW LAST-MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS? 
------------------------------ 
 
¶3.  (C) THE OCTOBER 26 EDITION OF THE "ZIMBABWE 
INDEPENDENT" CLAIMED THAT THE ZANU-PF POLITBURO WILL BE 
EXPANDED AT THE ANNUAL CONFERENCE TO BRING IN MORE HELP 
FOR THE ELECTION.  THE ARTICLE CLAIMED THAT THE 
COMMISSARIAT, WHICH DIRECTS ELECTION EFFORTS, WILL BE 
EXPANDED WITH TWO NEW DEPUTY SECRETARIES, INFORMATION 
MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO WILL HEAD A NEW INFORMATION, 
EXTERNAL AFFAIRS AND COMMISSARIAT SUB-COMMITTEE, AND 
NICHOLAS GOCHE WILL DIRECT A NEW TRANSPORT AND SECURITY 
SUB-COMMITTEE.  IDEN WETHERELL, EDITOR OF THE 
"INDEPENDENT," TOLD POLOFF NOVEMBER 6 THAT NOW IS NOT 
THE TIME FOR MUGABE TO REDUCE THE POLITBURO OR PUNISH 
ENEMIES WITHIN THE PARTY -- HE NEEDS ALL THE HELP HE CAN 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03410  01 OF 02  151326Z 
GET.  THE ZANU-PF POLITBURO NOW FUNCTIONS AS THE 
NATION'S CABINET -- THE REAL CABINET, IN MUGABE'S VIEW, 
IS FILLED WITH "WEAKLINGS AND LIGHTWEIGHTS" -- AND IT 
WILL BE EXPANDED TO MEET THE ELECTORAL CHALLENGE AHEAD, 
WETHERELL OPINED. 
 
¶4.  (C) IN SPEAKING TO ACTING PARTY COMMISSAR SIKHANYISO 
NDLOVU ON NOVEMBER 8, POLOFFS LEARNED THAT MUGABE 
PROBABLY WILL APPOINT A NEW COMMISSAR AT THE ZANU-PF 
CONFERENCE, BUT NDLOVU REFUSED TO SPECULATE WHETHER IT 
WOULD BE HIM.  WHEN ASKED IF NEW YOUTH DEVELOPMENT 
MINISTER ELLIOT MANYIKA WAS FAVORED FOR THE KEY POST, 
NDLOVU SAID HE WAS A POSSIBILITY.  WITH A TOUCH OF 
BITTERNESS, THE ACTING COMMISSAR COMPLAINED ABOUT 
WORKING FOR FORMER COMMISSAR BORDER GEZI, WHO DIED IN AN 
APRIL CAR ACCIDENT.  HE DESCRIBED GEZI AS UNEDUCATED AND 
IMMATURE.  NDLOVU NOTED THAT HE WAS NOW CONDUCTING A 
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ZIMBABWE'S DEMOGRAPHICS TO LEARN 
WHICH AREAS AND GROUPS ARE BEST TO TARGET FOR THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  THE JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS WERE RUN BASED ON THE OUTDATED 1992 CENSUS, 
BUT THAT MISTAKE WOULD NOT BE MADE THIS TIME, HE ASSURED 
US. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8285 
 
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P 151242Z NOV 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0287 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 003410 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/11 
TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: FEW CHANGES EXPECTED AT UPCOMING 
ZANU-PF CONFERENCE 
 
ELECTION DATE STILL A MYSTERY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03410  02 OF 02  151326Z 
----------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) WHEN ASKED ABOUT THE POSSIBLE TIMING OF THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, DIRECTOR SHAVA STATED THAT IT WAS 
"ENTIRELY UP TO THE PRESIDENT'S DISCRETION."  HE REFUSED 
TO ELABORATE ON WHEN THE DATE MIGHT BE ANNOUNCED, 
STATING THAT THE WINDOW FOR THE ELECTION WAS WELL- 
DEFINED BY THE CONSTITUTION.  SHAVA THEN VOLUNTEERED 
THAT IT IS WITHIN THE PRESIDENT'S AUTHORITY TO DELAY AN 
ELECTION, AND EFFECTIVELY EXTEND HIS TENURE, IF THE 
COUNTRY IS AT WAR, THERE IS A NATURAL DISASTER THAT 
PREVENTS VOTERS FROM GOING TO THE POLLS, OR A STATE OF 
EMERGENCY IS DECLARED.  IDEN WETHERELL REMARKED THAT HE 
DOES NOT BELIEVE MUGABE WILL ANNOUNCE THE ELECTION DATE 
DURING THE ZANU-PF CONFERENCE BECAUSE HE "DOESN'T WANT 
TO PUT ALL HIS CARDS ON THE TABLE."  INSTEAD, HE WILL 
WAIT AS LONG AS LEGALLY POSSIBLE.  MUGABE WILL STAND FOR 
RE-ELECTION, THE EDITOR OFFERED, BECAUSE THE PRESIDENT 
IS CONVINCED THAT HE IS THE ONLY ONE WHO CAN SEE "THE 
REVOLUTION" THROUGH.  NDLOVU TOLD US A MARCH DATE HAD 
BEEN RECOMMENDED TO THE PRESIDENT BUT THAT MUGABE HAS 
NOT YET MADE A DECISION. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶6.  (C) THIS YEAR'S ZANU-PF CONFERENCE IS SHAPING UP TO 
BE AN EVEN BIGGER NON-EVENT THAN IN PREVIOUS YEARS. 
GONE ARE EVEN THE USUAL RUMORS OF WHOLESALE CHANGES IN 
THE PARTY LEADERSHIP OR "YOUNG TURK" REVOLTS.  ZANU-PF 
MEMBERS APPEAR RESIGNED TO THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03410  02 OF 02  151326Z 
MUGABE AT THE HELM AND ARE STAKING THEIR POLITICAL 
FUTURES ON HIS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDACY.  ALTHOUGH A FEW 
MINOR RESHUFFLES OR ADDITIONS TO THE POLITBURO MAY OCCUR 
-- ELLIOT MANYIKA LOOKS LIKE A SHOE-IN FOR PARTY 
COMMISSAR -- MUGABE IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE TACK SO NEAR 
THE END OF THE RACE, EVEN IF THE BOAT IS TAKING ON 
WATER.  THE CONFERENCE WILL LIKELY SERVE AS ANOTHER 
AVENUE FOR THE PRESIDENT TO WHIP UP SUPPORT FOR HIS LAND 
PROGRAM AND TO REENERGIZE THE PARTY FAITHFUL.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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