This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

150644Z Nov 01


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ7347

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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0279
INFO AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 003404 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF FOR AF A/S KANSTEINER, DAS BELLAMY AND AF/S 
NSC FOR AFRICA SR DIR FRAZIER 
AID FOR AFR A/ADM 
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2011 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS UNTIL ELECTIONS: 
KEEP THE PRESSURE ON AND LEAVE ROOM FOR MISTAKES 
 
REF: (A)STATE 197909, (B)HARARE 3303 
 
CLASSIFIED BY JOSEPH G. SULLIVAN FOR REASONS 1.5 B/D 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: THE MUGABE GOVERNMENT HAS INTENSIFIED 
ITS VIOLENCE AND EFFORTS TO DOMINATE ELECTION PROCEDURES 
AND HAS NOT BEEN DETERRED BY THREATS OF SANCTIONS. HARSH 
METHODS, NOTWITHSTANDING, ZANU-PF IS STILL VERY HARD- 
PRESSED BY A RESILIENT MDC OPPOSITION, BOLSTERED BY 
ZIMBABWE'S CONTINUING ECONOMIC DECLINE.  UNDER DOMESTIC 
AND INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE, THE GOZ HAS MADE MANY 
MISTAKES AND COULD MAKE MORE. WE RECOMMEND LAYING DOWN 
CLEAR MARKERS OF WHAT IS NECESSARY FOR US TO CONFER 
LEGITIMACY UPON THE ELECTION RESULT AND LEVERAGING KEY 
AFRICANS INTO PRESSING FOR SUCH FREE AND FAIR 
CONDITIONS. IF THE GOZ FAILS TO DELIVER A CREDIBLE 
ELECTION AND DEPRIVES THE OPPOSITION OF A CHANCE OF 
VICTORY, THE US, EU, AND THE COMMONWEALTH SHOULD REACT 
QUICKLY TO DECLARE THE PROCESS UNFREE AND UNFAIR. 
SUPPORT OF KEY AFRICANS, PARTICULARLY THE SOUTH AFRICANS 
AND THE NIGERIANS, FOR OUR ACTIONS WILL BE CRITICAL. 
 
¶2. (C) IN THE MONTHS AHEAD, TONE WILL BE IMPORTANT. WE 
WANT TO BE FIRM IN DEFENDING THE HUMAN AND CIVIL RIGHTS 
OF THE ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE, BUT WISH TO DO IT IN A WAY 
THAT PUTS US ON THE SIDE OF THE PEOPLE AND AVOIDS THE 
IMAGE OF BIG POWER DICTATION.  WE ALSO WANT TO AVOID 
CONDEMNATION FOR ITS OWN SAKE AND MAKE CLEAR REPEATEDLY 
WHAT STEPS WE SEEK FROM THE GOZ.  THIS TONE MAINTAINS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03404  01 OF 03  150728Z 
THE PRESSURE FOR CHANGE AND MAKES GAINING AFRICAN 
SUPPORT EASIER.  WE ALSO INTEND TO KEEP PUBLICIZING OUR 
OWN EFFORTS ON BEHALF OF THE ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE IN THE 
AREAS OF HIV/AIDS AND IN SELF-HELP PROJECTS TO MAKE IT 
CLEAR THAT OUR DIFFICULTIES ARE WITH THE GOZ AND NOT THE 
PEOPLE. END SUMMARY 
 
¶3. (C) PRESIDENT ROBERT MUGABE AND HIS ZANU-PF 
GOVERNMENT HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED THEIR VIOLENCE AND 
INTIMIDATION OF OPPOSITION AND INDEPENDENT MEDIA AND 
THEIR EFFORTS TO CONTROL AND MANIPULATE THE 2002 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PROCEDURES.  THEY HAVE NOT BEEN 
DETERRED BY THE THREAT OF COMMONWEALTH, EU, US OR OTHER 
SANCTIONS, AND EVEN LESS BY THE ECONOMIC AND OTHER HARM 
THEY ARE CAUSING THEIR COUNTRY IN THEIR ALL-OUT EFFORT 
TO STAY IN POWER.  THE GOVERNMENT HAS NOT HESITATED TO 
LAMBASTE ANY AND EVERY FOREIGN GOVERNMENT OR ZIMBABWEAN 
WHO GETS IN THEIR WAY AND HAVE FEW FRIENDS LEFT OUTSIDE 
THEIR TIGHT CIRCLE OF INSIDERS. 
 
¶4. (C) FOR THE SAME REASON THE THREAT OF SANCTIONS HAS 
NOT AFFECTED THE MUGABE GOVERNMENT'S ACTIONS, THE 
IMPOSITION OF SANCTIONS IS UNLIKELY TO DETER IT FROM THE 
WIN-AT-ALL-COSTS STRATEGY.  PRESIDENT MUGABE AND HIS 
CLOSEST ADVISERS OBVIOUSLY CARE LITTLE ABOUT LOSS OF 
ASSISTANCE TO THE NATION AND APPEAR TO BELIEVE THAT 
THERE IS NO DAMAGE THAT CAN COME FROM PERSONALIZED 
FINANCIAL OR TRAVEL SANCTIONS WHICH EQUATES TO MUGABE'S 
LOSS OF THE PRESIDENCY.  ON THE OTHER HAND, WHAT DOES 
MATTER TO PRESIDENT MUGABE IS THE INTERNATIONAL AND 
DOMESTIC LEGITIMACY, WHICH COMES FROM AN ELECTION 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03404  01 OF 03  150728Z 
VICTORY.  FOR THAT REASON, WE BELIEVE THE EFFORT TO LAY 
DOWN A CLEAR MARKER OF WHAT ELECTION STANDARDS ARE 
NECESSARY (REFS A AND B) TO OBTAIN INTERNATIONAL 
LEGITIMACY AND THE DOMESTIC LEGITIMACY THIS HELPS CONFER 
IS AN IMPORTANT EXERCISE. 
 
¶5. (C) THE ABOVE NOTWITHSTANDING, THE ZIMBABWEAN 
GOVERNMENT MAY NOT RESPOND POSITIVELY TO MEET 
INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS, ASSUMING PERHAPS THAT 
PROTECTION BY FELLOW AFRICAN STATES, SOME COSMETIC 
OBSERVATION NEAR THE END OF THE ELECTIONS AND POST- 
ELECTION SIGNALS OF OPENNESS WILL WIPE AWAY UNPLEASANT 
MEMORIES.  MUGABE AND HIS INNER CIRCLE APPEAR TO 
BELIEVE THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WILL HAVE TO 
DEAL WITH A GOZ, WHICH RESULTS FROM AN ELECTION 
CARRIED OUT ON ZANU-PF TERMS. 
 
OFFENSES PILE UP 
---------------- 
 
¶6. (C) IN RECENT WEEKS, THE ZIMBABWEAN FOREIGN MINISTER 
STUCK HIS FINGER SO BLATANTLY INTO THE EU'S EYE THAT THE 
EU BEGAN ARTICLE 96 CONSULTATIONS.  THE GOZ ALSO FAILED 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ7348 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03404  02 OF 03  150729Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   EVG-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  INL-00 
      DODE-00  DS-00    EUR-00   VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01 
      VCE-00   M-00     DCP-01   NSAE-00  NSCE-00  IRM-00   SSO-00 
      SS-00    USIE-00  BBG-00   IIP-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02   NFAT-00 
      SAS-00     /004W 
                  ------------------3E7DAD  150729Z /38 
O 150644Z NOV 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0280 
INFO AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 003404 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF FOR AF A/S KANSTEINER, DAS BELLAMY AND AF/S 
NSC FOR AFRICA SR DIR FRAZIER 
AID FOR AFR A/ADM 
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2011 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS UNTIL ELECTIONS: 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03404  02 OF 03  150729Z 
KEEP THE PRESSURE ON AND LEAVE ROOM FOR MISTAKES 
 
TO GET A PASSING GRADE ON ITS ABUJA COMPLIANCE AND 
RECEIVES A UNDP TEAM THIS WEEK TO MEASURE ABUJA 
COMPLIANCE INDEPENDENTLY.  THE ZIMS CONTINUE TO STIFF 
THE SADC SUMMIT FOLLOW-UP COMMITTEE, PUTTING OFF ITS 
VISIT INDEFINITELY AND IGNORING CONCERNS RAISED BY SADC 
PRESIDENTS IN SEPTEMBER.  INTERNALLY, THE GOVERNMENT HAS 
STEPPED UP ITS HARASSMENT OF THE INDEPENDENT MEDIA, MOST 
RECENTLY BY THE ARREST AND OVERNIGHT DETENTION OF THE 
"DAILY NEWS" EDITOR.  THE GOZ HAS ALSO ENCOURAGED A 
THREATENING "WAR VETERANS" DEMONSTRATION OUTSIDE MDC 
HEADQUARTERS AND A CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION 
EFFORT TO SEARCH MDC HQ IN RESPONSE TO THE DISAPPEARANCE 
OF A WAR VETS' LEADERS.  GOVERNMENT EFFORTS TO DOMINATE 
CONTROL OF THE ELECTIONS PROGRESSED WITH THE 
ANNOUNCEMENT THAT THE GOVERNMENT INTENDS TO BAR DOMESTIC 
NGO'S FROM VOTER EDUCATION OR ELECTION MONITORING AND TO 
INVITE ONLY SELECTED INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS CLOSER TO 
ELECTIONS. 
 
¶7. (C) EVEN THE FOOD EMERGENCY HAS BEEN BADLY 
MISHANDLED.  WHEN AFTER MONTHS OF DENYING ANY FOOD 
SHORTAGE, THE GOVERNMENT FINALLY ISSUED AN INTERNATIONAL 
APPEAL FOR HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE, AGRICULTURE MINISTE 
MADE REFUSED TO WAIVE RESTRICTION ON IMPORTATION OF 
GENETICALLY MODIFIED GRAIN.  INFORMATION MINISTER 
JONATHAN MOYO WENT FURTHER, WARNING THAT NGO'S WOULD NOT 
BE PERMITTED TO ASSIST IN FOOD ASSISTANCE BECAUSE OF 
THEIR SUSPECTED SYMPATHIES FOR THE MDC AND THAT DONORS 
RESPONDING TO THE FOOD APPEAL AHOULD JUST GIVE THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03404  02 OF 03  150729Z 
ASSISTANCE TO THE GOVERNMENT TO DISTRIBUTE.  IN EFFECT, 
MOYO IS DECLARING GOZ WILLINGNESS TO HOLD HOSTAGE THE 
HUNGER OF THE MOST VULNERABLE ZIMBABWEANS FOR ENHANCED 
ELECTORAL LEVERAGE. 
 
¶8. (C) WHILE THE GOZ HAS FOR THE MOST PART REFRAINED FROM 
DIRECT PUBLIC CRITICISM OF THE US, IT BELIEVES THAT THE 
USG IS ENGAGED IN SUPPORT OF THE MDC AND SUBVERSION OF 
THE ZANU-PF AND RECENTLY REFUSED WORK PERMITS TO A GROUP 
OF PEACE CORPS VOLUNTEERS IN AN APPARENT EFFORT TO LIMIT 
INTERNATIONAL PRESENCE IN THE PRE-ELECTION PERIOD. 
WE BELIEVE IT LIKELY THAT THE GOZ WILL STEP UP ITS 
CRITICISM OF THE USG AND PERHAPS EXPEL OR OTHERWISE ACT 
AGAINST OUR EMBASSY STAFF IN THE MONTHS AHEAD. 
 
EVEN PARANOIDS HAVE ENEMIES 
--------------------------- 
 
¶9. (C) WHILE ZANU-PF DOES HAVE MANY ENEMIES, FOREIGN AND 
DOMESTIC, ITS ACTIONS ARE THOSE OF A PARANOID FLAILING 
ABOUT AT REAL AND IMAGINED ENEMIES AT HOME AND ABROAD. 
IN ITS FLAILING, THE GOZ IS BUYING ITSELF A NEW ENEMY OR 
MORE PER DAY.  THE ARREST OF THE DAILY NEWS EDITOR WHO 
IS ABOUT TO WIN THE COMMITTEE FOR THE PROTECTION OF 
JOURNALISTS' AWARD IS A CASE IN POINT.  AND ALL THE 
GOVERNMENT'S ACTIONS TO DATE HAVE BOUGHT IT ONLY A 
STATISTICAL DEAD HEAT IN THE LATEST PUBLIC OPINION POLL 
OF UNCERTAIN RELIABILITY. 
 
MORE ABUSES LIKELY 
------------------ 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03404  02 OF 03  150729Z 
 
10.(C) CONTINUED PRESSURE INSIDE AND OUTSIDE ZIMBABWE 
HAS ALREADY INDUCED GOZ MISTAKES AND COULD LEAD TO 
FURTHER MISCALCULATIONS AND ERRORS.  ON THE EVE OF A 
UNDP MISSION TO ASSESS COMPLIANCE WITH THE ABUJA ACCORD 
ON LAND REFORM, THE GOVERNMENT BROKE THE ABUJA AGREEMENT 
FLAGRANTLY BY LEGISLATING THE CONFISCATION OF ALL 
DESIGNATED LANDS AND SHORT-CIRCUITING ALL COURT APPEALS. 
IN ORDER TO DISPENSE WITH ITS OBLIGATIONS UNDER THE 
NIGERIAN-BROKERED AGREEMENT, THE GOZ MIGHT EVENTUALLY 
BREAK WITH THE ABUJA PROCESS, UNDOUBTEDLY BLAMING THE UK 
FOR ITS ACTIONS. MASSIVE RESORT TO FORCE, TARGETED 
ASSASSINATIONS OF OPPOSITION FIGURES OR DECLARATION OF A 
STATE OF EMERGENCY ARE ALSO POSSIBILITIES, ANY OF WHICH 
WOULD RAISE MAJOR LEGITIMACY ISSUES IN ZIMBABWE AND THE 
REGION. 
 
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 
---------------------- 
 
¶11. (C) ANY SANCTIONS THE US MIGHT APPLY UNILATERALLY 
BEFORE ELECTIONS ARE UNLIKELY TO MODIFY ZANU-PF BEHAVIOR 
AND HAVE THE ADDED DISADVANTAGE OF PROVIDING A POTENTIAL 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ7349 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03404  03 OF 03  150729Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   EVG-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  INL-00 
      DODE-00  DS-00    EUR-00   VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01 
      VCE-00   M-00     DCP-01   NSAE-00  NSCE-00  IRM-00   SSO-00 
      SS-00    USIE-00  BBG-00   IIP-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02   NFAT-00 
      SAS-00     /004W 
                  ------------------3E7DB9  150729Z /38 
O 150644Z NOV 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0281 
INFO AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 003404 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF FOR AF A/S KANSTEINER, DAS BELLAMY AND AF/S 
NSC FOR AFRICA SR DIR FRAZIER 
AID FOR AFR A/ADM 
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2011 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS UNTIL ELECTIONS: 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03404  03 OF 03  150729Z 
KEEP THE PRESSURE ON AND LEAVE ROOM FOR MISTAKES 
 
EXCUSE FOR ABORTING ELECTIONS WHICH THE MDC STILL HAS A 
REASONABLE CHANCE OF WINNING.  MOREOVER, SADC, THE 
COMMONWEALTH AND OTHER AFRICANS, I.E. THE NIGERIANS, 
WOULD LIKELY WIND UP SIDING WITH THE ZIMBABWEANS IN A 
SANCTIONS DISPUTE WITH THE "DEVELOPED WORLD."  INSTEAD, 
WE RECOMMEND LAYING DOWN CLEAR MARKERS OF WHAT IS 
NECESSARY FOR US TO CONFER LEGITIMACY UPON THE ELECTION 
RESULT AND SEEKING TO LEVERAGE KEY AFRICANS INTO 
PRESSING FOR SUCH FREE AND FAIR CONDITIONS. (THE 
ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT, IF PASSED BY CONGRESS, SHOULD BE 
PRESENTED AS A WARNING AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE GOZ TO 
CHOOSE BETWEEN ITS INCENTIVES AND ITS SANCTIONS.)  IF 
THE GOZ FAILS TO DELIVER A CREDIBLE ELECTION PROCESS AND 
THE OPPOSITION IS DEPRIVED OF A FAIR CHANCE AT VICTORY 
BY THESE METHODS, THE US, THE EU AND THE COMMONWEALTH 
NEED TO BE PREPARED TO REACT STRONGLY AND QUICKLY AFTER 
THE ELECTION TO DECLARE THE PROCESS UNFREE AND UNFAIR. 
IT WILL ALSO BE CRITICAL TO HAVE KEY AFRICANS, 
PARTICULARLY SOUTH AFRICA AND NIGERIA ALONGSIDE US IN 
THIS DECLARATION.  WHILE SOME MIGHT CAUTION THAT SUCH A 
DECLARATION WILL SET OFF AN INTERNAL CRISIS, WE BELIEVE 
THE ABSENCE OF A CLEAN AND CREDIBLE RESULT INTERNALLY 
WILL PROVOKE AN INTERNAL CRISIS ON ITS OWN. 
 
TONE IS IMPORTANT 
----------------- 
¶12. (C) WE WANT TO BE FIRM IN DEFENDING THE PEOPLE OF 
ZIMBABWE, THEIR HUMAN RIGHTS, MEDIA FREEDOM AND RIGHT TO 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03404  03 OF 03  150729Z 
FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS IN THE MONTHS AHEAD.  IT IS 
ALMOST AS IMPORTANT THAT WE MAINTAIN THE IMAGE OF 
DEFENDER OF JUSTICE AND AVOID THE IMAGE OF BIG POWER 
DICTATION.  IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT THAT WE CONTINUE TO 
PRESS FOR CHANGE IN GOVERNMENT BEHAVIOR RATHER THAN 
CONCEDE THAT THERE IS NO POSSIBILITY OF FOR IMPROVEMENT. 
THE ABOVE TONE IS IMPORTANT FOR GAINING AFRICAN SUPPORT 
AND UNDERSTANDING ON ZIMBABWE AND TO KEEP THE PRESSURE 
ON THE GOZ.  FOR THESE REASONS, WE INTEND TO CONTINUE 
PUBLICIZING PUBLIC ACTIVITIES IN SUPPORT OF THE 
ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE, SEEKING MAXIMUM PUBLICITY FOR SELF- 
HELP PROGRAM GRANTS, HIV-AIDS AND OTHER ACTIVITIES ON 
BEHALF OF THE PEOPLE. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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