This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 ABUJA 002863 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
AID ADM 
 
 
USAID/W FOR AFR/WA, MIKE KARBELING 
ABUJA FOR ADMIN 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: AMGT APER ECON PREL
SUBJECT: FLOOD DISASTER IN NORTHERN NIGERIA 
 
 
REF: RE: DISASTER DECLARATION 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY:  OFDA SENT EDRC JAY NASH TO NORTHERN 
NIGERIA FOR FOUR DAYS TO ASSESS THE FLOODING THERE AND 
TO MAKE A PRELIMINARY DETERMINATION AS TO WHETHER 
ADDITIONAL OFDA SUPPORT (ABOVE AND BEYOND THE $25,000 
TRANSFERRED AS A RESULT OF THE AMBASSADPR  DISASTER 
DECLARATION) WOULD BE NEEDED.  CROP DAMAGE WAS SEVERE, 
THOUGH THE NUMBERS OF DISPLACED PERSONS WERE NOT 
PARTICULARLY HIGH AND THEIR NEEDS WERE LARGELY BEING 
ADDRESSED BY THE LOCAL AND STATE GOVERNMENTS.  FOR  THE 
TIME BEING, THE INITIAL $25,000 IN DISASTER RELIEF 
ASSISTANCE IS SUFFICIENT, AND MONITORING ITS USE BY THE 
INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF RED CROSS SOCIETIES WILL 
GIVE USAID AMPLE OPPORTUNITY TO DETERMINE WHETHER MORE 
EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE (SUCH AS FOOD AND NON-FOOD 
COMMODITIES) IS NEEDED TO COMPLEMENT NIGERIAN 
GOVERNMENT EFFORTS.  SHOULD AN INTERNATIONAL NGO BE 
INTERESTED IN ADDITIONAL WORK IN THE AREAS OF SAFE 
WATER AND/OR RECONSTRUCTION, AND USAID NIGERIA CONCURS 
THAT THIS IS A NEED THAT WILL NOT BE MET BY OTHER 
DONORS, OFDA SHOULD BE OPEN TO REVIEWING AND POSSIBLY 
FUNDING PROPOSALS OF THIS TYPE IN THE NEXT MONTH OR 
TWO.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
¶2. OFDA DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO EDRC JAY NASH 
VISITED NORTHERN NIGERIA ON TDY FROM MONDAY SEPTEMBER 
17 TO THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 20TH.  THE PURPOSE OF THE TRIP 
WAS TO EVALUATE THE NEED FOR FURTHER OFDA ASSISTANCE TO 
VICTIMS OF THE FLOODS IN KANO AND JIGAWA STATES.  (THE 
INITIAL GRANT OF $25,000 REQUESTED IN THE AMBASSADOR 
DISASTER DECLARATION 
HAS ALREADY BEEN APPROVED AND 
PROCESSED.)  THE ASSESSMENT INCLUDED THREE DAYS OF 
FIELD VISITS TO FLOOD AFFECTED AREAS, INCLUDING A 
HELICOPTER FLYOVER ON THE THIRD DAY, AS WELL AS 
NUMEROUS MEETINGS WITH LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS AND 
OTHERS INVOLVED IN THE ASSISTANCE EFFORT.  NASH WAS 
ACCOMPANIED BY GARBA ABDU OF THE USAID/NIGERIA HEALTH 
UNIT, WHO IS A NATIVE OF NORTHERN NIGERA AND FLUENT 
SPEAKER OF HAUSE  HE DOMINANT LANGUAGE IN THE 
AFFECTED AREA. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
GENERAL SITUATION DESCRIPTION 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
 
¶3. UNUSUALLY HEAVY RAINS IN THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST 
IN NORTHERN NIGERIA SWELLED THE KANO AND CHALLAWA 
RIVERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE POINT WHERE THE TWO RIVERS 
CONVERGE TO FORM THE KEDEIJA RIVER.  WATER ALSO ROSE 
BEHIND THE TIGA AND CHALLAWA DAMS.  VILLAGES NEAR THE 
RIVERS RESPONDED BY BUILDING DIKES AROUND THE INHABITED 
AREAS, AND IN SOME CASES, AROUND FIELDS.  ON AUGUST 
27TH, HOWEVER, WATER BEGAN SPILLING OVER THE DAMS, 
FLASH-FOODING RESULTED AND THE DIKES OF MANY VILLAGES 
WERE OVERRUN BY THE WATER IN AS LITTLE AS THIRTY 
MINUTES TIME, FORCING THE INHABITANTS OF SOME VILLAGES 
AND CITY WARDS TO FLEE FOR THEIR LIVES.  SOME VILLAGES 
WERE CUT OFF FROM ACCESS TO HIGHER GROUND BEFORE 
VILLAGERS COULD ESCAPE.  THESE PEOPLE WERE EVACUATED IN 
BOATS, OR IN SOME CASES, BY FLOATING ON LARGE 
CALABASHES.  TWENTY  PEOPLE REPORTEDLY DROWNED IN KANO 
STATE, AND 180 IN JIGAWA STATE. 
 
 
THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WAS TRULY EXCEPTIONAL. ONE WEEK 
OF AUGUST REPORTED AS MUCH RAINFALL AS THE ENTIRE RAINY 
SEASON LAST YEAR. THIS WAS THE FIRST LIFE-ENDANGERING 
FLOODING TO OCCUR IN THE AREA IN LIVING MEMORY, AND THE 
VICTIMS WERE SERIOUSLY TRAUMATIZED.  (MANY ARE 
CONSEQUENTLY EXPRESSING GREAT RELUCTANCE TO RETURN TO 
THE SAME LOCATIONS.) 
 
 
¶4. FORTUNATELY, MOST OF THE DAMAGE WAS TO FARMLANDS 
RATHER THAN INHABITED AREAS.  THE REGION IS NOT DENSELY 
POPULATED, AND MOST VILLAGES OF THE AREA ARE LOCATED 
FAR ENOUGH FROM THE RIVER, AND ON SUFFICIENTLY HIGH 
GROUND, TO AVOID HAVING BEEN FLOODED.  SOME VILLAGES 
AND CITY WARDS, HOWEVER, WERE TOTALLY SUBMERGED, AND 
OTHERS PARTIALLY SUBMERGED, RESULTING IN THE COMPLETE 
LOSS OF THOUSANDS OF HOUSES (WHICH, MADE PRIMARILY OF 
MUD, COLLAPSED QUICKLY WHEN EXPOSED TO THE CURRENT). 
THE NUMBER OF VILLAGES AND WARDS WITH HOUSES DAMAGED OR 
DESTROYED BY THE FLOODING IS PROBABLY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 
30 AND 50.  THE NIGERIAN RED CROSS IS REPORTING SOME 
33,500 PERSONS DISPLACED IN JIGAWA STATE AND 50,000 IN 
KANO STATE, WITH APPROXIMATELY HALF OF THE DISPLACED 
CAMPING OUT IN SCHOOLS AND OTHER PUBLIC BUILDINGS 
ASSIGNED THEM BY THE LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND THE OTHER 
HALF STAYING WITH RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. 
 
 
¶5. THOUGH NOT HEAVILY POPULATED, THE REGION IS, 
HOWEVER, HIGHLY FARMED, WITH ALMOST ALL LAND PLANTED 
WITH ONE CROP OR ANOTHER.  CROP DAMAGE IS THUS 
EXTENSIVE.  MANY FARMERS OF THE AREA HAVE LOST ALL RICE 
AND BEAN FIELDS, WHILE SOME HAVE ALSO LOST MUCH OR ALL 
OF THE MILLET AND GUINEA CORN STAPLE CROPS.  (THE 
DAMAGE TO THE STAPLE MILLET AND GUINEA CORN FIELDS 
WOULD APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN ORIGINALLY FEARED, SINCE 
MANY FIELDS THAT WERE UNDERWATER DRIED WITHIN A WEEK 
AND SINCE THESE TALL PLANTS SEEM NOT TO HAVE SUSTAINED 
MUCH DAMAGE AS A RESULT OF BEING PARTIALLY UNDERWATER 
FOR THAT PERIOD.  THE MILLET AND GUINEA CORN LOSS, 
HOWEVER, MUST STILL BE CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT, 
ESPECIALLY FOR FARMERS WITH FIELDS IN LOWER-LYING AREAS 
OR CLOSE TO THE RIVER BED.)  THE NUMBER OF VILLAGES 
WHOSE CROPS WERE AFFECTED BY THE FLOODING IS REPORTEDLY 
125, AND PROBABLY SOME 500,000 PERSONS (100,000 
FAMILIES) COULD BE SAID TO BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY 
DAMAGE TO THEIR SUBSISTENCE CROPS. 
 
 
¶6. THOUGH NIGERIA IS GENERALLY SUBJECT TO ETHNIC AND 
RELIGIOUS TENSION, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE TO DATE THAT 
THE FLOOD HAS AGGRAVATED THIS SITUATION.  THERE DOES 
NOT, FOR EXAMPLE, APPEAR TO BE INCREASED 
ETHNIC/RELIGIOUS TENSION AS A RESULT OF THE LIMITED 
POPULATION MOVEMENT TOWARD THE URBAN AREAS.  THE 
AFFECTED VILLAGES ARE LARGELY OF THE SAME ETHNICITY 
(HAUSA-FULANI) AND RELIGION AS THE MAJORITY POPULATIONS 
IN THE NEARBY URBAN AREAS SUCH AS KANO AND WUDIL, AND 
THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE MOVED ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY NUMEROUS 
ANY WAY TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER ANY ETHNIC/RELIGIOUS 
BALANCE. 
 
 
----------------------------------------- 
THE RESPONSE TO DATE 
----------------------------------------- 
 
 
¶7. NEARLY ALL THE INITIAL ASSISTANCE TO THE FLOOD 
VICTIMS-PRIMARILY THE DISPLACED-TO DATE HAS COME FROM 
THE STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS OF THE AFFECTED AREAS. 
IN KANO STATE, THE STATE RELIEF AND REHABILITATION 
AGENCY HAS ASSISTED THE LOCAL GOVERNMENTS TO PROVIDE 
REGULAR FOOD AID, AS WELL AS NON-FOOD ITEMS, AT REGULAR 
TWO-WEEK INTERVALS TO THE WORST AFFECTED.  FOR EXAMPLE, 
KURA LGA HAS TWICE DELIVERED TO ITS AFFECTED VILLAGES 
500 BLANKETS, 500 50 KG SACKS OF RICE, 200 100KG BAGS 
OF CORN FLOUR, 500 25KG BAGS OF SALT, 600 GALLONS OF 
VEGETABLE OIL, 500 WOMEN  CLOTH WRAPS AND 500 MEN 
BUBUS.  A THIRD 
DISTRIBUTION IS UNDER PREPARATION.  OF 
THESE AMOUNTS, APPROXIMATELY 3/5THS WENT TO THE 1678 
HARD-HIT FAMILIES OF GAMADAN.  KURA ALSO SAYS THEY 
SPEND ABOUT $450 DAILY ON BREAD PURCHASES FOR THE 
AFFECTED FAMILIES. 
 
 
JIGAWA STATE HAS ALSO RESPONDED, THOUGH THEIR RESPONSE 
SEEMS A LITTLE LESS CONSISTENT AND REGULAR THAN THAT OF 
KANO STATE.  AT A SCHOOL HOUSING THE DISPLACED FROM A 
PARTIALLY SUBMERGED VILLAGE PEOPLE SAID THEY HAD 
RECEIVED ONE ROUND OF FOOD DISTRIBUTION ONLY, AND WERE 
SERIOUSLY SHORT OF FOOD.  AT THE SAME TIME, HOWEVER, 
THE STATE IN ANOTHER LOCATION NOT FAR AWAY HAD ALREADY 
BEGUN THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE FIRST OF A PROMISED 500 
NEW HOUSES.  COMMENT:  THE WALLS OF THIS HOUSE, MADE 
FROM COMPRESSED CEMENT-MUD BRICKS, ARE NEARLY COMPLETE. 
INTENDED, ACCORDING TO THE PEOPLE BUILDING IT, FOR JUST 
ONE FAMILY, THE HOUSE IS QUITE LARGE, WITH SEVERAL 
BEDROOMS, AND BOTH OFDA AND USAID/NIGERIA 
REPRESENTATIVES HAD THE STRONG REACTION THAT (A) 
PROVIDING ROOFING FOR IT WILL BE QUITE EXPENSIVE, AND 
(B) BUILDING 500 SUCH HOUSES IS AN EXTREMELY AMBITOUS 
PROJECT WHICH MIGHT EASILY SURPASS THE GOVERNMENT 
RESOURCES BEFORE MANY 
ARE BUILT AND FOR WHICH THE 
GOVERNMENT WILL FIND IT DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY 
INTERNATIONAL CONTRIBUTOR/PARTNER.  END 
COMMENT 
 
 
THOUGH FOOD AND NON-FOOD DISTRIBUTIONS IN BOTH KANO AND 
JIGAWA STATES ARE NO DOUBT SHORT OF BEING COMPLETELY 
ADEQUATE, AND THOUGH THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THEY 
WILL CONTINUE IN A DEPENDABLY RELIABLE MANNER, THESE 
CONTRIBUTIONS ARE SIGNIFICANT AND ANYONE WORKING TO 
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ASSISTANCE MUST BE CAREFUL TO 
COORDINATE CLOSELY WITH THE STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS 
TO AVOID DUPLICATION, SO AS NOT TO PROVIDE THE 
GOVERNMENT WITH AN EXCUSE TO WITHDRAW FROM THE 
RELIEF/REHABILITATION EFFORTS.  THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT 
IS NOW PARTICIPATING IN THE RELIEF EFFORT, HAVING TWICE 
SENT EVALUATION TEAMS FROM THE NATIONAL EMERGENCY 
MANAGEMENT AGENCY (NEMA) AND PROVIDING KANO STATE WITH 
$300,000 FOR RELIEF EFFORTS.  (THE AMOUNT OF FEDERAL 
GOVERNMENT AID TO JIGAWA WAS NOT CONFIRMED, BUT IS 
BELIEVED TO BE EQUIVALENT TO THAT PROVIDED TO KANO.) 
 
 
¶8. IN ADDITION, JIGAWA JUST RECEIVED #100,000 BRITISH 
POUND, FROM DFID OF THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT (JIGAWA 
HAVING BEEN IDENTIFIED AS A DFID +FOCUS; STATE WELL 
BEFORE THE PRESENT CRISIS.)  THOUGH JIGAWA IS LESS 
POPULATED THAN KANO, FLOOD DAMAGE ON THE WHOLE APPEARS 
TO HAVE BEEN WORSE THERE, WITH MORE HOMES AND FIELDS 
LOST THAN IN KANO, AND MORE AREAS STILL UNDER WATER. 
 
 
¶9. BOTH STATE GOVERNMENTS WERE ABLE TO SECURE A LIMITED 
AMOUNT OF MEDICAL SUPPLIES FROM UNICEF, AND LOCAL 
GOVERNMENT AREAS HAVE ALSO RECEIVED ASSISTANCE FROM 
LOCAL BUSINESSMEN.  THE NIGERIAN RED CROSS PROVIDED 
SOME SMALL DIRECT ASSISTANCE TO BENEFICIARIES USING 
BOTH THEIR OWN RESOURCES AND FEDERATION FUNDING ($5000 
TO DATE.)  USAID EXPENDED $1000 OF THE $25,000 DISASTER 
GRANT ON SOME RELIEF MATERIALS AND HAS TURNED OVER THE 
REMAINING $24,000 VIA A GRANT TO THE INTERNATIONAL 
FEDERATION OF RED CROSS AND RED CRESCENT SOCIETIES.  NO 
OTHER EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE HAS YET BEEN FORTHCOMING, AND 
NO INTERNATIONAL RELIEF AGENCIES HAVE SET UP IN THE 
AREA.  A DELEGATION FROM THE JAPANESE EMBASSY ARRIVED 
IN KANO ONE DAY AFTER THE OFDA REPRESENTATIVE FOR AN 
ASSESSMENT OF THE SITUATIOM, BUT THEIR ASSISTANCE 
PLANS, IF ANY, ARE NOT YET KNOWN.  DFID JOINED OFDA IN 
THE HELICOPTER FLYOVER ON SEPTEMBER 20TH, AND HAS, AS 
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, JUST MADE #100,000 AVAILABLE TO 
JIGAWA STATE GOVERNMENT FOR DISASTER RELIEF. 
 
 
COMMENT:  PART OF THE PROBLEM IN THE NIGERIAN CONTEXT, 
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH, WOULD APPEAR TO BE THAT 
INTERNATIONAL AGENCIES, INCLUDING UN AGENCIES, ARE NOT 
HIGHLY PRESENT IN THE COUNTRY. ICRC HAS A VERY SMALL 
OFFICE IN LAGOS.  UNDP AND UNICEF HAVE OFFICES IN KANO, 
BUT THESE OFFICES ARE SMALL.  (THE OFDA REPRESENTATIVE 
ATTEMPTED TO CONTACT BOTH ORGANIZATIONS IN KANO, BUT 
THEY APPEAR TO BE ONE-MAN OFFICES AND THE 
REPRESENTATIVES WERE NOT AVAILABLE IN THE SHORT TIME 
FRAME OF THE VISIT.)  THOUGH OTHER LARGE INTERNATIONAL 
NGOS MAY HAVE OFFICES IN LAGOS AND PROGRAMS IN SOUTHERN 
AREAS, NONE APPEAR TO HAVE ANY PRESENCE AT ALL IN THE 
FLOOD-AFFECTED PARTS OF THE COUNTRY-NO ONE APPEARED TO 
HAVE EVEN HEARD OF MOST OF THEM-AND NONE HAVE COME TO 
DO ASSESMENTS OF THE RECENT DISASTER.  BEING AN AREA OF 
INTENSE AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITY, IT IS CLEARLY NOT 
NORMALLY A DEFICIT AREA IN TERMS OF FOOD SECURITY, 
WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE LACK OF A WFP PRESENCE AND ANY 
FFP SUPPORT. END OF COMMENT 
 
 
---------------------------------------- 
PRESENT NEEDS 
---------------------------------------- 
 
 
¶10. IN GENERAL, THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT INSTITUTIONS, 
AND PARTICULARLY THE LOCAL AND STATE GOVERNMENTS, HAVE 
RESPONDED ADMIRABLY TO MANY OF THE URGENT NEEDS OF THE 
FLOOD VICTIMS.  GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE WAS THE FIRST TO 
ARRIVE, AND REMAINS, BY FAR, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT 
ASSISTANCE TO DATE.  THE CONCERN IS NOT THAT THERE ARE 
SERIOUS GAPS IN THE ASSISTANCE-(RELATIVELY FEW OF THE 
VICTIMS MET DURING THE ASSESSMENT COMPLAINED ABOUT THE 
QUANTITY OR QUALITY OF THE RESPONSE)-BUT THAT THE 
GOVERNMENT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO KEEP UP REGULAR 
ASSISTANCE AND COMPLETE AMBITIOUS PROGRAMS THAT IT HAS 
INITIATED OR PROMISED.  THERE ARE ALREADY SIGNS, 
PARTICULARLY IN JIGAWA STATE, THAT GOVERNMENT 
ASSISTANCE WILL WANE OVER TIME, AND THAT MORE EXTERNAL 
RESPONSES WILL BE NEEDED.  FURTHERMORE, IT WILL BE 
NECESSARY TO FINE-TUNE THE ASSISTANCE, WITH ASSISTANCE 
PROVIDERS, NOW PROCEEDING TO EVALUATE CAREFULLY ON A 
FAMILY-BY-FAMILY BASIS, AS THE FLOOD WATERS RECEDE, THE 
EXACT EXTENT OF THE AFFECTED POPULATION  LOSSES AND 
THEIR MINIMUM SHORT AND LONG-TERM NEEDS. 
 
 
¶11.  ADDITIONAL TEMPORARY SHELTER APPEARS NOT TO BE A 
CONCERN.  SEVERAL THOUSAND HOMES HAVE BEEN DESTROYED BY 
THE FLOOD, AND A FEW VILLAGES ARE STILL UNDER WATER. 
NEVERTHELESS, THE + DISPLACED PERSONS/FAMILIES ; 
SITUATION WOULD SEEM TO BE UNDER CONTROL.  NO 
POPULATIONS APPEAR TO BE COMPLETELY SHELTER-LESS AT THE 
PRESENT TIME, THE GOVERNMENT HAVING ASSIGNED SCHOOLS 
AND OTHER PUBLIC BUILDINGS, OR RENTED PRIVATE 
BUILDINGS, TO TAKE CARE OF THOSE THAT WERE NOT ABLE TO 
MOVE IN WITH RELATIVES OR FRIENDS IN NON-AFFECTED 
HOUSES OR AREAS.  THE NUMBERS ARE NOT THAT HIGH, IN ANY 
CASE, AND MANY WHO WERE ORIGINALLY CAMPING IN GROUP 
SHELTER AREAS HAVE SINCE MOVED OUT, PREFERING TO EITHER 
STAY WITH FRIENDS AND RELATIVES, OR TO MOVE TO RENTED 
HOUSING IN TOWNS, OR TO RETURN TO IMPROVISED HOUSING 
BACK IN THEIR HOME VILLAGES (FOR THOSE CASES WHERE THE 
WATER HAS ALREADY RECEDED). 
 
 
AS THE GROUP SHELTER AREAS ARE NOT FAR FROM THE 
DISPLACED HOME VILLAGES, AND IN MANY CASES + BELONG ; 
IN SOME SENSE ANYWAY TO THE COMMUNITIES AFFECTED, THE 
ARRANGEMENT HAS CAUSED SO FAR MINIMAL DISRUPTION. 
SCHOOL HAS BEEN SUSPENDED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO 
OCCUPATION OF THE BUILDING BY THE DISPLACED, BUT IT IS 
LIKELY THAT A SOLUTION TO THIS PROBLEM WILL BE SOON 
IMPROVISED.  (IN SOME SCHOOLS HOUSING THE DISPLACED, 
SOME CLASSROOMS HAVE BEEN KEPT CLEAR FOR SCHOOL USE AND 
THE SHORTAGE OF SPACE COMPENSATED FOR BY A MOVE TO A 
TWO-SHIFT SYSTEM.) 
 
 
SOCIAL PROBLEMS MIGHT OCCUR IN THE FUTURE IF THE 
DISPLACED REMAIN IN THE BUILDINGS FOR MORE THAN A FEW 
MONTHS, WHICH IS WHY IT IS IMPORTANT THAT THESE PEOPLE 
BE ASSISTED SOON TO DECIDE UPON RECONSTRUCTION SITES 
AND PROVIDED MATERIALS TO USE IN RECONSTRUCTION.  THERE 
IS NO DESIRE TO REMAIN IN GROUP SHELTERS.  UNLESS THERE 
IS MORE HEAVY RAIN (WHICH HAS NOT BEEN TRUE SINCE 
AUGUST), ALL THE VILLAGES FROM WHICH THE DISPLACED CAME 
WILL PROBABLY BE COMPLETELY ACCESSIBLE IN TWO OR THREE 
WEEKS TIME, OPENING THE POSSIBILITY OF RETURN, 
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WHOSE HOUSES WERE CONSTRUCTED OF 
CONCRETE BLOCK AND ARE THUS PROBABLY RECOVERABLE. 
THOUGH MANY ARE SAYING THAT THEY DO NOT WANT TO RETURN 
TO THE SAME VILLAGES, FEARING THAT NEXT YEAR THE SAME 
THING COULD HAPPEN AGAIN, IN AREAS WHERE THE WATER HAS 
RECEDED, MANY CLEARLY ALREADY HAVE RETURNED.  WHAT 
COULD KEEP PEOPLE IN GROUP SHELTER AREAS LONGER THAN IS 
ADVISABLE IS THE GOVERNMENT  STATED PROMISE TO 
RESETTLE THE DISPLACED TO NEW SITES ON HIGHER GROUND, 
WHICH MAY NOT BE ACTED UPON QUICKLY.  IN SOME CASES THE 
GOVERNMENT IS SAYING THAT IN ORDER TO OBTAIN A NEW SITE 
FOR A VILLAGE, THEY MUST WAIT UNTIL THE HARVEST OF 
NOVEMBER-DECEMBER IS OVER, SINCE MOST OF THE AREAS THEY 
MIGHT MOVE TO ARE CURRENTLY PLANTED FIELDS AND THE 
GOVERNMENT WILL HAVE TO PURCHASE THE LAND FROM PRESENT 
OWNERS. 
 
 
IN ANY CASE, THERE IS NO REASON AT PRESENT TO MOVE TO 
ANOTHER SHELTER THAT WILL NOT BE A PERMANENT ONE, ONCE 
IT IS DECIDED-BY GOVERNMENT, OR ON A FAMILY BY FAMILY 
BASIS-WHERE THEY SHOULD REBUILD, THESE FAMILIES COULD 
PROBALBY USE SOME PLASTIC SHEETING TO IMPROVISE 
TEMPORARY HOUSING ON THEIR NEW (OR OLD) RECONSTRUCTION 
SITES, AS WELL AS CEMENT, ROOFING WOOD, TIN ROOFING AND 
DOOR-/WINDOW SETS TO BEGIN CONSTRUCTION OF NEW HOUSING. 
SINCE MANY OF THESE PEOPLE LIVED IN EXTENDED-FAMILY 
COMPOUNDS WITH MULTIPLE BUILDINGS, IT SHOULD BE 
EMPHASIZED FROM THE START THAT ASSISTANCE CAN NOT 
REPLACE WHAT HAS BEEN LOST, BUT ONLY PROVIDE  PERHAPS 
THE FIRST PERMANENT STRUCTURE OF THE FUTURE COMPOUND 
(EXCEPT, OF COURSE, IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT THAT STATE 
GOVERNMENT, OR SOME OTHER DONOR, MAKES AVAILABLE THE 
RESOURCES FOR COMPLETE RECONSTRUCTION.) 
 
 
¶12.  THE FLOODED VILLAGES LOST ANY FOOD STOCKS THEY HAD 
AND WILL NOT BE ABLE TO HARVEST MUCH FROM ANY REMAINING 
VIABLE FIELDS UNTIL LATER NOVEMBER OR DECEMBER OF THIS 
YEAR.  EVEN IN LOCATIONS WHERE RESIDENTS WERE ABLE TO 
KEEP FLOOD WATERS FROM ENTERING THE VILLAGE PROPER, 
MUCH EARLY-HARVEST MILLET INTENDED TO TIE THE 
POPULATION OVER UNTIL THE MAIN HARVEST LATER THIS YEAR 
HAD BEEN LEFT IN THE FIELDS AND THUS HAS BEEN LOST. 
PARTICULARLY WORRISOME IS THAT MOST OF THE CLOSE-TO- 
THE-GROUND PROTEIN CROPS, LIKE BEANS AND BAMBARA SEED, 
AS WELL AS THE INCOME-PRODUCING CROPS, SUCH AS RICE, 
HAVE BEEN LARGELY DESTROYED. 
 
 
REGULAR FOOD DISTRIBUTIONS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY 
UNTIL DECEMBER OF 2002-THE NEXT HARVEST.  FOR FAMILIES 
STILL ABLE TO HARVEST CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF MILLET 
AND GUINEA CORN IN DECEMBER OF THIS  YEAR, FOOD 
ASSISTANCE MAY BE REDUCED AT THAT TIME TO JUST PROTEIN 
AND OTHER NON-STAPLE COMMODITIES. 
 
 
¶13. SAFE DRINKING WATER REMAINS A CONCERN FOR ALL. 
THERE HAVE BEEN NO OUTBREAKS OF WATER-BORN DISEASES TO 
DATE, BUT THIS REMAINS AN AREA OF VULNERABILITY. 
THOUGH THE GOVERNMENT HAS CHLORINATED SOME CONTAMINATED 
WELLS, AND DUG SOME NEW WELLS (IN RESETTLEMENT AREAS), 
HEALTH OFFICIALS WILL NEED TO BOTH (A) EXPAND THE 
EFFORT TO ENSURE THAT ALL AFFECTED POPULATIONS HAVE 
ACCESS TO SAFE DRINKING WATER, (B) FOLLOW UP ON INITIAL 
INTERVENTIONS, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CHLORINE AS 
NECESSARY, AND (C) MAKE SURE THAT THE POPULATIONS ARE 
WELL-EDUCATED CONCERNING THE DANGERS OF USING NON- 
TESTED WATER. 
 
 
¶14. A SPECIAL MEDICAL INTERVENTION WOULD NOT SEEM TO BE 
INDICATED AT THIS JUNCTURE, SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN NO 
UNUSUAL MEDICAL PROBLEMS AND SINCE THE AFFECTED 
POPULATIONS, IN GENERAL, HAVE ACCESS TO THE SAME 
MEDICAL CARE THAT THEY DID BEFORE THE FLOOD.  SEVERAL 
OF THE LOCAL GOVERNMENTS HAVE SPONSORED THE SENDING OUT 
OF SPECIAL + MOBILE CLINIC ; TO TREAT SPECIFICALLY 
THOSE DIRECTLY-AFFECTED BY THE FLOODING.  THIS EFFORT 
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THAT THE SITUATION 
WILL REMAIN STABLE. 
 
 
¶15. CERTAIN OTHER NON-FOOD ITEMS WOULD BE OF USE, 
THOUGH THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE URGENT NEEDS. 
ADDITIONAL CLOTHING FOR FAMILIES WHOSE HOUSES WERE 
FLOODED WOULD NO DOUBT BE MOST WELCOME, FOR EXAMPLE, AS 
WELL AS KITCHEN SETS FOR THOSE WHO HAVE LOST WHAT THEY 
HAD.  (FRIENDS AND NEIGHBORS HAVE, IN MOST CASES, 
LOANED THE DISPLACED THE MATERIALS NEEDED FOR COOKING, 
BUT INDIVIDUAL KITCHEN SETS WILL PROBALBY BE NEEDED 
WHEN THE DISPLACED LIVING-AND COOKING-IN GROUPS AT THE 
PRESENT TIME RETURN TO FAMILY HOUSING.)  LATER ON 
(AFTER RECONSTRUCTION), SEED AND TOOL DISTRIBUTIONS 
WILL BECOME IMPORTANT. 
 
 
----------------------------------------- 
POSSIBLE COURSES OF ACTION -  GENERAL 
----------------------------------------- 
 
 
¶16. IN ADDITION TO CONTINUING FOOD DISTRIBUTIONS AND 
PROVIDING NON-FOOD ASSISTANCE WHERE NECESSARY, THE 
NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT SHOULD BE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO 
MOVE QUICKLY IN THE PROCESS OF DETERMINING WHERE THE 
AFFECTED POPULATIONS WILL RECONSTRUCT HOUSING AND BEGIN 
PROVIDING MATERIALS TO ENABLE THOSE IN NEED TO BEGIN 
THE RECONSTRUCTION EFFORT. 
 
 
THOUGH AT THE PRESENT MOMENT VIRTUALLLY EVERYONE IS 
TALKING ABOUT + RESETTLEMENT TO SAFER AREAS ;, THESE 
SENTIMENTS AND INTENTIONS MAY LOSE FORCE OVER TIME AS 
PEOPLE SEE THE FLOOD WATERS RECEDE AND THEIR ORIGINAL 
SITES BECOME ACCESSIBLE AGAIN.  FURTHERMORE, IN 
RESETTLEMENT PLANS THERE REMAINS THE COMPLICATED 
QUESTION OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THOSE FAMILIES WHO DID 
NOT LOSE THEIR HOUSES (WHOSE HOUSES WERE MADE OUT OF 
CEMENT BLOCKS, FOR EXAMPLE).  DO THEY ALSO MOVE?  IF 
SO, DOES SOMEONE PROVIDE THEM RECONSTRUCTION SUPPORT AS 
WELL? 
 
 
THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT MAY HAVE 
AN OVERLY-AMBITIOUS CONCEPT OF RECONSTRUCTION, WHEREIN 
THE GOVERNMENT-OR OTHER DONORS-DO NOT JUST SUPPLY 
MATERIALS FOR A SMALL BASIC PERMANENT DWELLING, BUT 
ACTUALLY BUILD LARGE NEW HOUSES-USING PAID LABOR-FOR 
THE FLOOD AFFECTED POPULATIONS.  SIMPLER-AND QUICKER- 
SOLUTIONS TO RECONSTRUCTION NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AND 
INITIATED, PREFERABLY IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. 
 
 
¶17. THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SHOULD POSITON ITSELF 
TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY, AND TO THE EXTENT 
POSSIBLE, BE READY TO RESPOND-PARTICULARLY WITH FOOD, 
BLANKETS, WATER AND MEDICINE-WHEREVER IT IS CLEAR THAT 
THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT CAN NOT RESPOND IN A TIMELY 
FASHION.  EXTERNAL DONORS AND ACTORS MUST BE EXTREMELY 
CAREFUL TO ONLY COMPLEMENT NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT EFFORTS, 
AND NOT SEEM IN ANY WAY TO BE COMPETING WITH GOVERNMENT 
ASSISTANCE.  CLOSE COORDINATION WITH GOVERNMENT RELIEF 
AGENCIES IS THUS OF THE UTMOST IMPORTANCE. 
INTERNATIONAL ACTORS AND DONORS MUST WORK IN THE 
BACKGROUND AND ADOPT A PURELY SUPPORTIVE ROLE.  THOUGH 
THEY NEED NOT CHANNEL THEIR RESOURCES THROUGH THE 
GOVERNMENT AGENCIES, THEY MUST TAKE CARE AS TO NOT BE 
SEEN TO BE OPERATING INDEPENDENTLY OF THE GOVERNMENT, 
LEST THE GOVERNMENT PERCEIVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO 
WITHDRAW AND SHIFT PRIMARY RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE 
RESPONSE TO THE DISASTER TO EXTERNAL ACTORS. 
 
 
¶18. BOTH NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT AND INTERNATIONAL 
COMMUNITY SHOULD VERIFY THAT THERE  HAS NOT BEEN 
EXTENSIVE DAMAGE FURTHER DOWN THE RIVER FROM THE 
ORIGINAL FLOODED AREA.  THERE ARE UNCONFIRMED REPORTS, 
FOR EXAMPLE, THAT SOME 40 VILLAGES IN YOBE STATE HAVE 
ALSO BEEN AFFECTED, YET LITTLE ATTENTION SEEMS SO FAR 
TO HAVE BEEN PAID TO THIS AREA.  THE SITUATION MUST BE 
CAREFULLY MONITORED UNTIL THE FLOOD PEAK FINALLY MAKES 
ITS WAY TO LAKE CHAD OR CEASES TO BE A PROBLEM. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
POSSIBLE COURSES OF ACTION  FDA SPECIFIC 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
 
¶19. THE ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL DONORS AND ACTORS AT THIS 
POINT SHOULD BE TO COMPLEMENT-BUT NOT SUPPLANT - 
NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT ASISTANCE WHEREVER THIS APPEARS TO 
BE FALLING SHORT OF THE MINIMUM.  THE USG  $24,000 
DISASTER GRANT TO THE IFRCS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR 
USG INVOLVEMENT OF THIS SORT IN THE SHORT TERM, SINCE 
NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE IS STILL BEING PROVIDED. 
AS THE GOVERNMENT IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE IN ALL SECTORS- 
SHELTER, HEALTH, WATER, FOOD, AND NON-FOOD NECESSITIES- 
INTERVENTIONS CANNOT YET BE DEFINITIVELY PLANNED ALONG 
SECTORAL LINES.  IFRCS MIGHT, HOWEVER, FIND IT 
PARTICULARLY USEFUL TO BE ACTIVELY INVOLED IN WATER AND 
SANITATION EFFORTS, AS IT IS UNCLEAR THAT NIGERIAN 
GOVERNMENT ATTENTION TO THIS IMPORTANT AREA HAS BEEN 
UNIFORM AND CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE AFFECTED REGIONS. 
LOCAL PURCHASE OF ADDITIONAL FOOD AND NON-FOOD ITEMS 
SHOULD NOT BE EXCLUDED, HOWEVER, SHOULD CONDITIONS 
WARRANT IT. 
 
 
¶20. THE INEVITABLE SERIOUS LAPSES IN NIGERIAN 
GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE SHOULD BECOME MORE READILY 
APPARENT OVER THE NEXT MONTH.  DURING THIS TIME, 
USAID/NIGERIA AND ANY INTERESTED INTERNATIONAL NGOS 
WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNIY TO DETERMINE MORE SPECIFICALLY 
HOW THE GOVERNMENT  EFFORTS MIGHT BEST BE COMPLEMENTED 
AND TO DEVELOP RESPONSE PLANS AND PROPOSALS FOR 
SUBMISSION TO OFDA OR OTHER USG AGENCIES.  MUCH BETTER 
AND DETAILED INFORMATION AS TO SUCH QUESTIONS AS TO 
EXACTLY HOW MANY HOMES WERE DESTROYED AND WHAT 
PERCENTAGE OF FARMERS LOST WHAT PERCENTAGE OF WHICH 
CROPS SHOULD ALSO BE FORTHCOMING. 
 
 
¶21. THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE BOTH 
USAID AND OFDA A CHANCE TO EVALUATE FURTHER THE GRAVITY 
OF THE DISASTER BUT ALSO THE VALUE AND QUALITY OF THE 
RESPONSE BY ANY INTERNATIONAL NGOS WHO BECOME INVOLVED, 
AND THUS PROVIDE USAID AND OFDA CLEAR IDEAS REGARDING 
WHO MIGHT BE THE MOST EFFECTIVE PARTNERS FOR FURTHER 
ASSISTANCE TO THIS POPULATION. 
 
 
¶22. A POTENTIAL AND VERY USEFUL ROLE FOR USG FUNDING TO 
PLAY IN THE NEAR FUTURE MIGHT WELL BE IN THE 
RECONSTRUCTION EFFORT, PROVIDING, FOR EXAMPLE, A SET, 
STANDARD AMOUNT OF CEMENT, ROOFING MATERIALS, BRICKS, 
DOORS AND WINDOWS TO EACH FAMILY PROVEN TO HAVE LOST 
ALL PERMANENT HOUSING. 
 
 
¶23. A SECOND POTENTIAL ROLE FOR USG-FUNDED PARTNERS 
COULD WELL BE IN THE WATER-SANITATION DOMAIN, EITHER 
REPAIRING DAMAGED WATER SOURCES IN THE ORIGINAL FLOODED 
VILLAGES OR DIGGING NEW WELLS AT NEW RESETTLEMENT 
SITES, DEPENDING ON THE HABITATION PATTERNS THAT 
DEVELOP AS THE WATERS RECEDE. 
 
 
¶24. CENTRAL TO BOTH OF THE ABOVE POTENTIAL ROLES FOR 
USG-FUNDED PARTNERS WOULD APPEAR TO BE CLOSE 
COORDINATION WITH THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT IN PLANNING 
THE DISASTER RESPONSE, AND PARTICULARLY IN PROMOTING 
THE RAPID DETERMINATION OF WHERE RECONSTRUCTION WILL 
TAKE PLACE. 
 
 
¶25. THERE IS AN INTERESTING POTENTIAL ROLE FOR USG/OFDA 
FUNDING WITH REGARD TO FUTURE FLOOD MITIGATION.  THOUGH 
IT IS PERFECTLY CLEAR THAT THE FLOOD RESULTED FROM SOME 
EXTRAORDINARILY HEAVY RAINS IN CLOSE SUCCESSION DURING 
THE MONTH OF AUGUST, NO TECHNICAL STUDY HAS YET BEEN 
ATTEMPTED TO DETERMINE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, COULD HAVE 
BEEN DONE BEFORE OR DURING THE RAINS TO MITIGATE THE 
EFFECTS.  COULD, FOR EXAMPLE, SOME OF THE WATER IN THE 
RESERVOIRS BEEN RELEASED IN SMALL QUANTITIES TO PREVENT 
THE WATER COMING OVER THE TOP ALL OF A SUDDEN CREATING 
A FLASH-FLOOD SITUATION AS OPPOSED TO A GRADUAL ONE? 
THE PURPOSE OF THE STUDY WOULD NOT BE TO ASSIGN FAULT, 
BUT GIVEN THAT THIS IS THE FIRST TIME EVER THAT THIS 
EXACTLY HAS HAPPENED-THE FIRST MAJOY FLOOD SINCE THE 
DAMS WERE CONSTRUCTED-AND THAT IT IS NOT PRACTICAL TO 
SIMPLY GIVE UP FARMING THIS LARGE AREA OF FERTILE LAND 
JUST BECAUSE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME YEAR IN 
THE FUTURE IT MIGHT HAPPEN AGAIN, IT WOULD BE USEFUL TO 
NOW STUDY IN DETAIL THE CAUSES AND POSSIBLE MEANS OF 
PREVENTING A REOCCURENCE SHOULD NEXT YEAR, OR THE YEAR 
AFTER, THERE ONCE AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINS.  RIGHT NOW, THE 
AUTHORITIES ARE SAYING THEY WANT EVERYONE TO AT LEAST 
MOVE TO THEIR RESIDENCES TO NEW LOCATIONS, AND MUCH OF 
THE POPULATION, STILL TRAUMATIZED, HAS AGREED TO MOVE. 
 IF, HOWEVER, THE GOVERNMENT WILL AT SOME POINT GET 
INTO A SITUATION WHERE IT MUST CONVINCE PEOPLE TO MOVE 
TO HIGHER GROUND, THE DISCUSSION WILL BE MORE 
PRODUCTIVE IT IS BETTER INFORMED, I.E. IF EXPERTS HAVE 
LOOKED AT THE SITUATION AND DETERMINED THE DEGREE TO 
WHICH A REOCCURENCE WOULD BE PREVENTABLE, GIVEN THE NEW 
DISCOVERY THAT THIS IS A DANGER TO ALWAYS BE ON THE 
LOOKOUT FOR. 
ANDREWS