This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

310637Z Oct 01


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8507

PAGE 01        HARARE  03250  01 OF 04  310726Z 
ACTION AF-00    

INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  INL-00   DODE-00  WHA-00   
      DS-00    EAP-00   EUR-00   VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   
      VCE-00   NSAE-00  SSO-00   SS-00    DSCC-00  DRL-02   NFAT-00  
      SAS-00     /003W
                  ------------------37C2D8  310730Z /38    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0155
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA 
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON 
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM 
AMEMBASSY OSLO 
AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 003250 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/29/11 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: AF PDAS DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE CRISIS WITH MDC LEADER AND 
OTHER KEY NON-GOVERNMENTAL PLAYERS 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON.  REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) AF PDAS MARK BELLAMY MET WITH A WIDE RANGE OF INDIVIDUALS 
AND ORGANIZATIONS OUTSIDE GOVERNMENT, INCLUDING MDC PRESIDENT 
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION, AND OTHER KEY 
PLAYERS DURING A TWO-DAY VISIT TO HARARE OCTOBER 24-26.  MANY OF 
HIS INTERLOCUTORS INDICATED THAT GOVERNMENT-SANCTIONED POLITICAL 
VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION, AND HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES, HAVE CONTINUED 
UNABATED SINCE THE SIGNING OF THE ABUJA AGREEMENT IN EARLY 
SEPTEMBER.  SEVERAL URGED THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO INSIST 
THAT THE GOZ MEET SPECIFIC MINIMUM ELECTION STANDARDS OR BE 
PREPARED FOR THE FACT THAT THE ELECTION RESULT WOULD NOT BE 
CONSIDERED LEGITIMATE.  TSVANGIRAI PRESSED FOR THE IMPOSITION OF 
TARGETED SANCTIONS NOW, SAYING SUCH A MOVE COULD BE AN EFFECTIVE 
WARNING TO THE GOZ ON THE NEED FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS.  THE 
MDC LEADER CONFIRMED ONGOING LOW-LEVEL TALKS WITH ZANU-PF, BUT WAS 
SKEPTICAL THEY WOULD LEAD ANYWHERE AS PRESIDENT MUGABE IS MORE 
INTERESTED IN GOING IT ALONE THAN IN ENGAGING IN REAL DIALOGUE 
ABOUT THE WAY FORWARD.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U) DURING HIS OCTOBER 24-26 VISIT TO HARARE, AF PRINCIPAL 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03250  01 OF 04  310726Z 
DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE MARK BELLAMY MET SEPARATELY 
WITH MDC LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, SUPREME COURT JUSTICE WILSON 
SANDURA, CATHOLIC PRIEST FATHER FIDELIS MUKONORI, LEADERS OF THE 
COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION, AND A RANGE OF CIVIL SOCIETY LEADERS. 
BELLAMY WAS ACCOMPANIED BY AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN AND POLITICAL 
SECTION CHIEF. 
 
FATHER FIDELIS MUKONORI 
----------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) IN A CONVERSATION OVER BREAKFAST WITH FATHER FIDELIS 
MUKONORI, LEADER OF ZIMBABWE'S JESUITS AND A LONG-TIME CONFIDANT 
OF PRESIDENT MUGABE, THE PDAS NOTED LITTLE PROGRESS IN 
IMPLEMENTATION OF ABUJA, AND ASKED WHETHER THE GOZ HAD ANY 
INTENTION OF HONORING ITS ABUJA COMMITMENTS.  YES, FIDELIS 
REPONDED, BUT THEY HAD TO BE PROVIDED WITH POLITICAL COVER. 
ABUJA, HE SAID, IS ABOUT MORE THAN COMPENSATION TO COMMERCIAL 
FARMERS.  IT MEANS POTENTIAL STABILITY TO THE GOZ, BY HOLDING OUT 
THE PROSPECT OF ENSURING THAT RESETTLED FAMILIES ARE PROVIDED WITH 
THE NECESSARY RESOURCES TO EARN A LIVING.  THE GOZ, HE SAID, 
REALIZES THAT IT HAS MADE SERIOUS MISTAKES, BUT IT IS NOT USED TO 
BEGGING AND IS TRYING TO SAVE FACE.  THE LAND ISSUE, MUKONORI 
INSISTED, WILL NOT GO AWAY REGARDLESS OF WHO WINS THE 2002 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. 
 
¶4.  (C) THE UNITED STATES, AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN REPLIED, RECOGNIZES 
THE IMPORTANCE OF LAND REFORM.  IT WANTS TO PROVIDE ASSISTANCE BUT 
WOULD DO SO ONLY IF THE PROCESS IS LEGAL, RATIONAL, AND ORDERLY. 
BELLAMY AGREED, BUT EMPHASIZED THAT THE USG IS MOST CONCERNED 
ABOUT GOZ-SANCTIONED POLITICAL INTIMIDATION AND VIOLENCE WHICH 
APPEARS DESIGNED TO ENSURE THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE REMAINS IN 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03250  01 OF 04  310726Z 
OFFICE. THE USG, HE SAID, IS TRYING TO DETERMINE HOW IT CAN PLAY A 
CONSTRUCTIVE ROLE UNDER SUCH CIRCUMSTANCES.  SOME IN THE U.S., HE 
REPORTED, ARE PRESSING FOR THE IMPOSITION OF TARGETED PERSONAL 
SANCTIONS AS THE MOST APPROPRIATE U.S. RESPONSE.  MUKONORI 
EXPRESSED HIS VIEW THAT TARGETED SANCTIONS WOULD BE 
COUNTERPRODUCTIVE, AS THEY WOULD "MAKE MUGABE A HERO WITHIN HIS 
PARTY."  BESIDES, MUGABE HAS BEEN "HARDENED BY INCARCERATIONS AND 
WAR" AND WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY SUCH MEASURES.  HE 
WARNED AGAINST DEMONIZING AN INDIVIDUAL, AND CLAIMED THAT THE 
ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT WAS ILL-SERVED BY SYCOPHANTIC ADVISORS. 
ASKED WHETHER MUGABE WOULD RESPECT THE ELECTION RESULT IF HE 
LOSES, MUKONORI DID NOT ANSWER DIRECTLY.  INSTEAD, HE REPORTED 
THAT HE HAS BEEN CHAIRING LOW-LEVEL TALKS BETWEEN ZANU-PF AND THE 
MDC, IN WHICH HE HAS TRIED TO REASSURE BOTH SIDES THAT THEY HAVE A 
FUTURE IF THEY LOSE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  PROGRESS IN THESE 
TALKS HAS BEEN "SLOW," MUKONORI LAMENTED. 
 
JUSTICE WILSON SANDURA 
---------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) SUPREME COURT JUSTICE WILSON SANDURA SAID HE HAD PREFERRED 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8508 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03250  02 OF 04  310726Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  INL-00   USNW-00  DODE-00 
      WHA-00   DS-00    EAP-00   EUR-00   VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00 
      LAB-01   VCE-00   NSAE-00  IRM-00   SSO-00   SS-00    DSCC-00 
      DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /003W 
                  ------------------37C2E1  310730Z /38 
P 310637Z OCT 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0156 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA 
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON 
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM 
AMEMBASSY OSLO 
AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 003250 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03250  02 OF 04  310726Z 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/29/11 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: AF PDAS DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE CRISIS WITH MDC LEADER AND 
OTHER KEY NON-GOVERNMENTAL PLAYERS 
 
TO MEET AT THE EMBASSY TO AVOID THE INEVITABLE FLOOD OF QUESTIONS 
HE WOULD HAVE RECEIVED IF U.S. DIPLOMATS HAD COME TO HIS OFFICE. 
HE REFERRED TO THESE AS "DIFFICULT TIMES" FOR THE JUDICIARY AND 
RECOUNTED NUMEROUS INCIDENTS OF INTIMIDATION AGAINST JUDGES, 
INCLUDING THE INVASION OF THE SUPREME COURT BY WAR VETERANS. 
SANDURA SAID THE INTIMIDATION INTENSIFIED AFTER THE COURT DECLARED 
UNCONSTITUTIONAL THE GOVERNMENT'S FAST TRACK LAND EFFORT IN 
DECEMBER 2000.  THE COURT'S RULING, SANDURA INSISTED, CANNOT BE 
CRITICIZED ON LEGAL GROUNDS, ONLY ON THE POLITICAL BASIS THAT IT 
DOES NOT PERMIT THE GOVERNMENT TO DO WHAT IT WANTS.  THE 
INTIMIDATION, HE SAID, WAS DESINED TO PRESSURE JUDGES INTO 
ISSUING SYMPATHETIC RULINGS; WHEN THAT DID NOT WORK, THE GOZ TRIED 
TO USH SANDURA AND HIS COLLEAGUES OUT INDIVIDUALLY. 
¶6.  (C) SANDURA SAID HE IS THE MOST SENIOR JUDGE N ZIMBABWE, 
AFTER JUSTICE MCNALLY, WHO RETIRES I DECEMBER, AND SHOULD HAVE 
BEEN THE NATURAL CHOICE FOR THE CHIEF JUSTICE POSITION AFTER THE 
FORCED RETIREMENT OF ANTHONY GUBBAY.  INSTEAD, "FOR OBVIOUS 
REASONS," THE GOZ APPOINTED GODFREY CHIDYAUSIKU, WHO IS "MORE A 
POLITICIAN THAN A JUDGE" AND WHO IS JUNIOR TO ALL OF THE OTHER 
JUDGES ON THE SUPREME COURT. 
 
¶7.  (C) SANDURA NOTED THAT THE GOZ HAD RECENTLY APPOINTED THREE 
NEW JUSTICES TO THE SUPREME COURT.  DID THE GOVERNMENT NOW HAVE A 
COURT IT IS COMFORTABLE WITH, BELLAMY ASKED?  TWO OF THE NEW 
APPOINTEES -- JUSTICES MALABA AND CHEDA -- HAVE BEEN ALLOCATED 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03250  02 OF 04  310726Z 
LAND UNDER FAST TRACK, SANDURA POINTED OUT.  HOW COULD INDIVIDUALS 
WHO HAVE BENEFITTED FROM A PROGRAM ADJUDICATE THE LEGALITY OF THAT 
PROGRAM, SANDURA ASKED?  THAT SAID, HE WAS NOT CONVINCED THAT 
MALABA AND CHEDA WOULD RULE WITH CHIDYAUSIKU IN EVERY CASE, 
ALTHOUGH HE ASSESSED JUSTICE VERNANDA ZIYAMBI TOBE FIRMLY IN THE 
NEW CHIEF JUSTICE'S CAMP.  SANDURA NOTED THAT THE COURT, IN WHICH 
FOUR OF THE FIV JUSTICES WHO SAT WERE RECENT APPOINTEES, ISSUED 
AN INTERIM ORDER ALLOWING THE GOZ TO PROCEED WITH CQUIRING FARMS 
LISTED FOR COMPULSORY ACQUISITIONPRIOR TO JUNE 30.  HE PREDICTED 
THAT CHIDYAUSIKU WOULD BIDE HIS TIME AND NOT ISSUE A FINAL RULING 
N THE CONSTITUTIONALITY OF THE FAST TRACK PROGRAM NTIL SOMETIME 
NEXT YEAR, MUCH CLOSER TO THE PRESDENTIAL ELECTION.  ASKED 
WHETHER HE INTENDED TO EMAIN ON THE COURT, DESPITE ITS 
POLITICIZATION, SANDURA REPLIED IN THE AFFIRMATIVE. 
 
LUNCH WITH USID CORE PARTNERS 
------------------------------ 
 
¶8.  (C) USAID'S CORE PARTNERS, COMPRISING LEADIN CIVIL SOCIETY 
ORGANIZATIONS, DESCRIBED CONTINUIG POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND 
SUGGESTED SPECIFIC DIPLOMATIC STEPS THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY 
OUGHT TO URSUE.  TONY REELER, DIRECTOR OF ONE OF ZIMBABWE'SMOST 
PROMINENT HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATIONS, AMANITRUST, EXPRESSED 
CONCERN ABOUT THE ABUJA AGREEMET'S FOCUS ON LAND.  WINNING THE 
ELECTION IS THE OVERARCHING OBJECTIVE FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF 
ZIMBABE, AND ABUJA IS MERELY A DELAYING TACTIC FROM HARAE'S 
PERSPECTIVE.  THE LEVEL OF POLITICAL VIOLENC HAS NOT DECREASED 
ONE IOTA SINCE THE SIGNING OF THE ABUJA AGREEMENT, REELER 
ASSERTED.  LYDIA ZIGOMO, HEAD OF ZIMBABWE WOMEN LAWYERS FOR HUMAN 
RIGHTS, AGREED.  SHE CLAIMED THAT THE GOZ IS ESTABLISHING 
"REEDUCATION CAMPS" IN RURAL AREAS WHERE GIRLS FROM NEARBY AREAS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03250  02 OF 04  310726Z 
ARE FORCED TO SERVE AS COOKS AND SUBJECTED TO SEXUAL ABUSE. ZIGOMO 
ADDED AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN THAT THE GOZ IS CONDUCTING AN 
AGGRESSIVE CLAMPDOWN ON NGOS AND THEIR ACTIVITIES NATIONWIDE. 
REGINALD MATCHABA-HOVE, CHAIRMAN OF THE ZIMBABWE ELECTION SUPPORT 
NETWORK (ZESN), SAID HE HAD ADVISED NGOS TO OPEN OFF-SHORE BANK 
ACCOUNTS AS A PALLIATIVE MEASURE IN CASE THE GOZ DECIDES TO TAMPER 
WITH THEIR DOMESTIC ACCOUNTS. 
 
¶9.  (C) SARAH CHIUMBU, DIRECTOR OF THE MEDIA INSTITUTE OF SOUTHERN 
AFRICA (MISA), SHARED HER CONCERN THAT INFORMATION MINISTER 
JONATHAN MOYO CONTINUES TO USE THE STATE MEDIA AS HIS PERSONAL 
VEHICLE AND THAT EQUAL ACCESS TO THE MEDIA FOR ALL PARTIES IS AN 
UNACHIEVABLE OBJECTIVE UNDER CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES.  CHIUMBU ALSO 
EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT ONGOING HARASSMENT OF JOURNALISTS, A 
PARTICULARLY SERIOUS PROBLEM IN RURAL AREAS, AND ABOUT 
GOVERNMENT'S INTENTION TO BAR NGOS FROM CONDUCTING VOTER 
EDUCATION.  EILEEN SAWYER, EXECUTIVE-DIRECTOR OF THE LEGAL 
RESOURCES FOUNDATION (LRF), SAID THE RECENTLY-PASSED CITIZENSHIP 
ACT AMENDMENT, WHICH REQUIRES THOSE HOLDING DUAL CITIZENSHIP TO 
RENOUNCE THEIR CLAIM TO CITIZENSHIP FROM ZIMBABWE OR THE SECOND 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8509 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03250  03 OF 04  310726Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  WHA-00   DS-00 
      EAP-00   EUR-00   VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01 
      VCE-00   NSAE-00  IRM-00   SSO-00   SS-00    DSCC-00  DRL-02 
      NFAT-00  SAS-00     /003W 
                  ------------------37C2E5  310730Z /38 
P 310637Z OCT 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0157 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA 
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON 
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM 
AMEMBASSY OSLO 
AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 003250 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03250  03 OF 04  310726Z 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/29/11 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: AF PDAS DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE CRISIS WITH MDC LEADER AND 
OTHER KEY NON-GOVERNMENTAL PLAYERS 
 
COUNTRY, COULD DISENFRANCHISE ONE-AND-A-HALF MILLION PEOPLE, 
MOSTLY COMMERCIAL FARMWORKERS.  THE LRF HAS, THEREFORE, FILED A 
CLASS-ACTION LAWSUIT CHALLENGING THE LAW'S CONSTITUTIONALITY. 
 
¶10.  (C) REELER URGED THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO DELIVER A 
MESSAGE TO THE GOZ, IN THE STRONGEST POSSIBLE TERMS, THAT THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION MUST MEET CERTAIN MINIMUM STANDARDS OR ELSE 
THE OUTCOME WOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED LEGITIMATE.  SUCH A MESSAGE 
COULD BE VERY EFFECTIVE, REELER THOUGHT, SINCE LEGITIMACY IS 
IMPORTANT TO MUGABE.  HE NOTED THAT MOST ZIMBABWEAN VOTERS ARE 
WAITING ANXIOUSLY TO CAST BALLOTS NEXT YEAR, AND THEY WANT THEIR 
VOTES TO COUNT.  IF THE ELECTION IS STOLEN, THEREFORE, THERE COULD 
BE AN UPSURGE IN VIOLENCE.  MATCHABA-HOVE AGREED, AND ASSERTED 
THAT A SLIM VICTORY BY EITHER PARTY COULD SPARK SERIOUS UNREST. 
HE POINTED OUT THAT THE GOZ HAS DIFFICULTY SAYING "NO" TO OTHER 
AFRICANS AND ENCOURAGED THE UNITED STATES TO PRESS NIGERIAN 
PRESIDENT OBASANJO TO CONTINUE PLAYING AN ACTIVE AND CONSTRUCTIVE 
ROLE IN ZIMBABWE. 
 
COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION 
------------------------ 
 
¶11.  (C) COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION (CFU) DIRECTOR DAVID HASLUCK 
TOLD BELLAMY THE CFU WELCOMED THE ABUJA AGREEMENT, AS IT PROVIDED 
EVIDENCE OF GOZ POLITICAL COMMITMENT THAT PREVIOUSLY HAD BEEN 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03250  03 OF 04  310726Z 
LACKING, AND SPELLED OUT BROADER PRINCIPLES WHICH, IF ADHERED TO, 
WOULD MAKE ZIMBABWE LIVEABLE FOR ALL CITIZENS ONCE AGAIN.  THE 
PROBLEM, HOWEVER, IS THAT ABUJA HAS NOT BEEN IMPLEMENTED. 
ACCORDING TO HASLUCK, THE SITUATION ON COMMERCIAL FARMS IS MUCH 
WORSE THAN ON SEPTEMBER 6, THE DAY OF THE ABUJA MEETING.  FARM 
INVASIONS AND PARTICULARLY WORK STOPPAGES CONTINUE TO BE A SERIOUS 
PROBLEM, HE SAID.   BELLAMY ASKED WHETHER THE CFU'S MEMBERS WERE 
ABLE TO FARM, DESPITE THE OCCUPATIONS, AND HOW SERIOUSLY OVERALL 
PRODUCTION IS BEING AFFECTED.  THERE IS A RANGE OF SITUATIONS, 
HASLUCK REPLIED.  SOME FARMERS HAVE BEEN DRIVEN OFF THEIR 
PROPERTIES COMPLETELY, WHILE OTHERS ARE TRYING TO FARM AROUND THE 
OCCUPIERS.  CFU DEPUTY DIRECTOR MALCOLM VOWLES ADDED THAT MORE 
THAN ONE-THIRD OF COMMERCIAL FARMERS ARE CURRENTLY UNABLE TO 
UNDERTAKE NORMAL FARMING OPERATIONS, WITH CUTBACKS RANGING FROM 10 
TO 100 PERCENT. 
 
¶12.  (C) THE AMBASSADOR ASKED WHAT WOULD CONVINCE THE CFU THAT THE 
GOZ IS SERIOUS ABOUT IMPLEMENTING ABUJA.  WOULD REMOVING OCCUPIERS 
BE SUFFICIENT?  THE GOVERNMENT WOULD NOT EVEN HAVE TO GO THAT FAR, 
CFU PRESIDENT COLIN CLOETE REPLIED.  SIMPLY ALLOWING FARMING 
OPERATIONS TO PROCEED UNHINDERED WOULD BE A HUGE STEP FORWARD. 
ASKED WHAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY COULD DO THAT IT WAS NOT 
ALREADY DOING, CFU VICE-PRESIDENT WILLIAM HUGHES SAID IT IS 
CRUCIAL TO PRESS THE GOZ TO ABIDE BY THE RULE OF LAW, A GOAL 
SPECIFICALLY ADDRESSED IN THE ABUJA AGREEMENT. CLOETE ADDED THAT 
THE GOZ IS CLEARLY FOCUSED ONLY ON THAT PORTION OF THE AGREEMENT 
REQUIRING THE BRITISH TO COME UP WITH FUNDS FOR LAND REFORM, WHILE 
CHOOSING TO IGNORE THE REFERENCES TO RESTORING THE RULE OF LAW. 
VOWLES NOTED THAT THERE IS CURRENTLY A CREDIBLE LAND REFORM 
PROGRAM ON THE TABLE -- THE ZIMBABWE JOINT RESETTLEMENT INITIATIVE 
-- UNDER WHICH FARMERS HAVE OFFERED THE GOZ ONE MILLION HECTARES 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03250  03 OF 04  310726Z 
FOR RESETTLEMENT.  THE GOZ, HE SAID, HAS ACCEPTED THE PLAN IN 
PRINCIPLE AND IT HAS BEEN ENDORSED BY THE WORLD BANK AND UNDP. 
ASKED WHY THIS PROGRAM HAS NOT BEEN IMPLEMENTED, HASLUCK SAID THE 
GOVERNMENT IS NOT INTERESTED IN GENUINE LAND REFORM.  THE FAST 
TRACK EFFORT, HE SAID, IS ALL ABOUT COERCING VOTES FOR THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. 
 
MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI 
------------------------------- 
 
¶13.  (C) MDC LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI PRESSED FOR THE IMPOSITION 
OF TARGETED PERSONAL SANCTIONS AS A WARNING -- A "YELLOW CARD" -- 
TO THE GOZ TO ENSURE THAT ZIMBABWEANS ARE ALLOWED TO CAST THEIR 
VOTES FREELY AND TO ABIDE BY THE ELECTION OUTCOME.  TSVANGIRAI 
ADVOCATED THE SUBSEQUENT IMPOSITION OF COMPREHENSIVE SANCTIONS -- 
THE RED CARD -- IF THE ELECTION IS "SUBVERTED."  ASKED HIS VIEW ON 
THE VALUE OF DIRECT TALKS BETWEEN THE MDC AND ZANU-PF TO AGREE ON 
A WAY FORWARD, TSVANGIRAI SAID ZIMBABWE NEEDS A POLITICAL CULTURE 
WHICH PERMITS THAT KIND OF DIALOGUE.  UNFORTUNATELY, PRESIDENT 
MUGABE DOES NOT RECOGNIZE THE LEGITIMACY OF THE MDC.  TSVANGIRAI 
SAID HE HAD WRITTEN TO HIM TWICE PROPOSING SUCH A DIALOGUE ON 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8510 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03250  04 OF 04  310726Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  INL-00   DODE-00  WHA-00 
      DS-00    EAP-00   EUR-00   VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01 
      VCE-00   NSAE-00  SSO-00   SS-00    DSCC-00  DRL-02   NFAT-00 
      SAS-00     /003W 
                  ------------------37C2E7  310730Z /38 
P 310637Z OCT 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0158 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA 
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON 
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM 
AMEMBASSY OSLO 
AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 003250 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03250  04 OF 04  310726Z 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/29/11 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: AF PDAS DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE CRISIS WITH MDC LEADER AND 
OTHER KEY NON-GOVERNMENTAL PLAYERS 
 
CRITICAL NATIONAL ISSUES SUCH AS LAND, THE ECONOMY, AND 
CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM, BUT MUGABE HAS NOT RESPONDED.  THE MDC 
PRESIDENT ACKNOWLEDGED THAT LOW-LEVEL TALKS BETWEEN THE TWO 
PARTIES ARE GOING ON, BROKERED BY FATHER FIDELIS MUKONORI, BUT 
THEY ARE EXPLORATORY AND HAVE ACCOMPLISHED LITTLE. 
 
¶14.  (C) BELLAMY REPORTED THAT THERE NOW IS MUCH MORE ANXIETY 
AMONG ZIMBABWE'S NEIGHBORS THAN THERE WAS DURING HIS MARCH 2001 
VISIT.  MALAWIAN PRESIDENT MULUZI, FOR EXAMPLE, WAS QUITE 
OUTSPOKEN ABOUT HIS CONCERNS AND BELIEVES MUCH MORE PRESSURE MUST 
BE BROUGHT TO BEAR ON THE GOZ, PARTICULARLY ON THE IMPORTANCE OF 
ENSURING FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS.  TSVANGIRAI SAID HE HAD SEEN A 
DRAMATIC CHANGE AMONG SADC MEMBERS, WHO NOW HAVE A MUCH BETTER 
UNDERSTANDING OF DEVELOPMENTS HERE, AND HE PRAISED SADC PRESIDENTS 
FOR BEING MORE ATTENTIVE TO ZIMBABWE'S DIFFICULTIES.  ASKED 
WHETHER THE MDC IS IN REGULAR CONTACT WITH SADC NEIGHBORS, 
TSVANGIRAI SAID THEY ARE IN "CONSTANT" COMMUNICATION WITH THE 
 
SIPDIS 
SOUTH AFRICANS, VIA THEIR EMBASSY IN HARARE.  THE OTHER EMBASSIES, 
THOUGH, HAVE "KEPT THEIR DISTANCE." 
 
¶15.  (C) TSVANGIRAI CONFIRMED THAT HE CONTINUES TO HOLD DISCREET 
DISCUSSIONS WITH MILITARY OFFICERS.  ASKED WHETHER HE WAS 
CONFIDENT THAT THE MILITARY WOULD ABIDE BY THE ELECTION RESULTS IF 
HE WERE TO WIN, TSVANGIRAI SAID HE WAS MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE 
LIKELY REACTION OF WAR VETERANS AROUND THE COUNTRY, WHO ARE BEING 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03250  04 OF 04  310726Z 
ISSUED LARGE NUMBERS OF WEAPONS FROM THE ARMY'S ARMS DEPOTS.   THE 
MDC PRESIDENT PREDICTED THAT HE WOULD WIN 65-70 PERCENT OF THE 
NATIONAL VOTE NEXT YEAR, DEPENDING ON TURNOUT. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶16.  (C) BELLAMY'S INTERLOCUTORS PROVIDED A COMPELLING PICTURE OF 
ONGOING POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS, DESPITE 
THE GOZ'S COMMITMENTS AT ABUJA.  WE AGREE THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE'S 
OVERARCHING OBJECTIVE IS WINNING THE ELECTION, AND THAT FAST TRACK 
IS BEING WIELDED PRIMARILY AS A TOOL OF INTIMIDATION AGAINST 
SUSPECTED OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS.  IN THAT LIGHT, WE WOULD ARGUE IT 
IS CRITICAL THAT WE SECURE CONSENSUS AMONG KEY PLAYERS --SADC, THE 
EU, AND THE COMMONWEALTH -- ON MINIMUM STANDARDS WE EXPECT THE 
GOVERNMENT TO ADHERE TO IN THE UPCOMING ELECTION, AND PRESENT 
THOSE EXPECTATIONS IN A UNIFIED DIPLOMATIC APPROACH TO THE GOZ. 
SINCE THE SADC PARLIAMENTARY FORUM ENDORSED AN EXCELLENT SET OF 
ELECTORAL STANDARDS IN MARCH 2001 AT A MEETING ATTENDED BY SPEAKER 
OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, TWO MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT FROM 
ZANU-PF AND ONE FROM THE MDC, WE WOULD RECOMMEND THAT OUR DEMARCHE 
DRAW EXCLUSIVELY FROM THAT DOCUMENT.  SUCH AN APPROACH TO THE GOZ 
SHOULD MAKE IT CLEAR THAT AN ELECTION WHICH DOES NOT MEET THOSE 
STANDARDS WILL BE CONSIDERED ILLEGITIMATE.  SADC PARTICIPATION IN 
SUCH AN EFFORT IS CRUCIAL, AS MUGABE DOES CARE WHAT HIS NEIGHBORS 
THINK, AND MIGHT PAUSE AT THE PROSPECT OF ACHIEVING VICTORY AT ALL 
COSTS IF ONE OF THE COSTS IS SADC'S REJECTION OF THE ELECTION 
OUTCOME. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03250  04 OF 04  310726Z 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
>