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Viewing cable 01ABUJA2759, NIGERIA: SPECIAL ADVISOR BUGAJE HOLDS HIGH

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
01ABUJA2759 2001-10-29 14:42 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Abuja
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002759 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2006 
TAGS: PREL PGOV SU XA NI IGAD
SUBJECT: NIGERIA:  SPECIAL ADVISOR BUGAJE HOLDS HIGH 
EXPECTAQTIONS FOR THE PLANNED ABUJA CONFERENCE 
 
 
REF: A. NAIROBI 6602 
     B. CAIRO 6777 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reasons 1.5 (b) 
and (d) 
 
 
1. (C)  Summary: During a brief October 22 meeting, 
Presidential Special Advisor Usman Bugaje said the November 
12-17 conference on Sudan was on track.  He described the 
"3-in-1" conference where the Southern and Northern groups 
would first meet separately, then join in an all parties 
session.  He contended the Nigerians were not pushing a 
substantive agenda except that they opposed Southern 
secession.  Abuja sought only to provide a forum where the 
Sudanese could find their own way, he stated.  This 
procedural-substantive dichotomy may work in the abstract but 
in practice the line is blurred.  The composition of invitees 
will influence the substantive agenda.  While the smaller 
parties and factions may welcome this wider tent, the 
perennial antagonists - Bashir and Garang -- might experience 
a rare moment of agreement.  Both probably will not relish 
sharing space around a negotiating table they now monopolize. 
 Despite these potential sticking points, we should encourage 
the Nigerians in their effort.  However, gauging the 
emanations from Cairo and Nairobi,  Bugaje may be 
underestimating the difficulties inherent in the Nigerian 
approach. End summary. 
 
 
2. (C)  During an October 23 meeting with PolCouns and 
Poloff, Dr. Usman Bugaje stated the November 12-17 conference 
was on track.  Bugaje, Abuja's point man on Sudan, said he 
was traveling to London that very evening.  In London he 
would meet with non-SPLA Southern opposition members October 
23 in addition to seeing the Snyder/Oakley team October 24. 
Bugaje, optimistic that Nigeria could push the Sudanese 
process forward, outlined Abuja's "3-in-1" conference 
scenario. 
 
 
3. (C)  Bugaje's formulation differed from what NSA Mohammed 
told us most recently.  Bugaje envisioned a meeting of all 
Southern opposition groups, a separate session of all 
Northern parties (including the government's party) and a 
third meeting of all who participated in the first two 
confabulations.  (Conversely, Mohammed told us the second 
meeting would convene all the opposition groups.  We do not 
know if Mohammed misspoke or if there is a disconnect among 
the Nigerians.) 
 
 
4. (C)  Stressing that this formula was promising because it 
promoted inclusivity,  Bugaje characterized both the IGAD 
process and Egyptian-Libyan Initiative (ELI) as inert.  IGAD 
had languished for nearly eight years with a controversial 
document - the Declaration of Principles -- as its only noted 
accomplishment, he declared.  Additionally he cited  IGAD as 
structurally flawed because it only involved the SPLM and the 
Bashir Government.  Bugaje contended other Southern armed 
groups also controlled territory.  Although Garang's faction 
was the largest,  marginalizing the other groups would prove 
inimical.  They ultimately would be disruptive in order to 
force a place at the table.  Bugaje also explained that 
Southern political party leaders have threatened to take up 
arms unless they were included in the process.  Overall, 
other Southern groupings were tired of Garang's delaying 
tactics.  Garang was footdragging because he was more 
comfortable with the status quo than with the political 
uncertainty that progress toward peace might sow. 
 
 
5. (C)  Bugaje characterized the ELI as stillborn, claiming 
the partnership between Cairo and Tripoli could not advance 
the peace process because the Cairo-Tripoli bilateral 
relationship was marked more by contention than concord. 
 
 
6. (C)  The Nigerian Special Advisor predicted that the 
Nigerian approach could cure the faults of the two other 
initiatives.  By inviting all credible Sudanese parties, 
including the Southern political organizations, the Nigerian 
approach minimized the chance of minor parties uniting to 
roll a boulder in the road because they were excluded from 
peace talks.  Second, the Abuja conference would not impose a 
solution; it simply provided a conducive venue.  Nigeria 
neither endorsed nor opposed the substantive agendas of the 
two other initiatives, he offered.  Abuja will let the 
Sudanese decide; they can adhere to the DOP, the ELI formula 
or choose a third stream, asserted Bugaje.  Nigeria's only 
anathema was partition.  Given its own history of destructive 
civil war, Nigeria would not "preside" over the dismantling 
of another state, Bugaje stressed.  (Comment: While Bugaje 's 
statement was retrospective, we cannot but feel that 
Nigeria's current ethno-religious maelstrom figures in 
Abuja's squeamishness about secession as well.  End comment.) 
 
 
7. (C)  When asked whether Garang, whose personality houses 
vast deposits of megalomania, accepted such a conference 
arrangement that would seem to dilute his negotiating 
position in the South and within the NDA.  Bugaje, contended 
that "sufficient pressure" was being placed on Garang to make 
him amenable.  However, Bugaje admitted that Nigeria must 
delicately calibrate the numerical representation of the 
other Southern parties to prevent them from acquiring a voice 
exceeding their power and importance on the ground. 
 
 
8. (C)  Bugaje was also certain that Bashir would send high 
level negotiators and that Northern elements of the NDA would 
be well represented.  When asked about the logic of an 
all-northern meeting, Bugaje was momentarily nonplused.  He 
then declared that the conferences were geographically 
structured to reflect political realities.  Despite their 
differences, the Northerners share a greater commonality of 
interests notwithstanding the North/South makeup of the NDA. 
 
 
9. (C) Comment:  Bugaje tried to outline a simple 
straightforward approach.  His presentation was typical of 
the Nigerian stratagem toward conflict resolution -- put the 
parties in a room and let them hash it out; intervening only 
to prevent a stalemate.  Nigeria's intrinsic importance and 
Obasanjo's personal stature suggest Nigerian efforts to 
gather the parties could possibly energize the peace process. 
 Because of these attributes, we should encourage the 
Nigerians toward a constructive role.  However as the 
preparations for the conference unfold, we must watch closely 
that the formulation does not have the unintended 
consequences of compounding Garang's recalcitrance and 
escalating the North-South divide, testing the stability of 
the NDA in the process. 
Andrews