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Reference ID	Created	Released	Classification	Origin
01HARARE2480	2001-08-22 11:25	2011-08-30 01:44	CONFIDENTIAL	Embassy Harare

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

221125Z Aug 01


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ4895

PAGE 01        HARARE  02480  01 OF 03  221422Z 
ACTION AF-00    

INFO  LOG-00   COR-01   AGRE-00  AID-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00  
      EB-00    VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     AC-01    
      NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OMB-01   PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   
      P-00     SP-00    SS-00    TRSE-00  T-00     USIE-00  BBG-00   
      PMB-00   DRL-02   G-00     SAS-00     /006W
                  ------------------151F17  221422Z /68    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9522
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 
DEPT OF AGRICULTURE USD FAS WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002480 
 
SIPDIS 
 
CORRECTED COPY - USDA FAS WASHDC ADDED AS ADDEE NOT AS A PASS TO 
 
STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/EPS 
 
USAID FOR AFR/SA, NAN NEWMAN, LANCE DOWNING, AND C.W.T. 
HAGELMAN; ALSO FOR B/HR/FFP JON BRAUSE 
 
PRETORIA FOR AGATT RICK HELMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/03 
TAGS: PREL EAID EAGR ZI
SUBJECT: UNDP AND DONORS MEET ON FOOD AID FOR ZIMBABWE 
 
REF:  ROME 4322 
 
CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY.  UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE VICTOR 
ANGELO MET WITH A LARGE SEGMENT OF THE DONOR COMMUNITY 
ON AUGUST 20 AT THE FORMER'S INVITATION TO DISCUSS 
DEVELOPMENTS ON THE FOOD AID FRONT.  THE GROUP FOCUSED 
IN SEQUENCE ON THE DIMENSIONS OF THE CRISIS, 
ESTABLISHMENT OF A HUMANITARIAN SECRETARIAT WITHIN UNDP, 
AND POSSIBLE PROGRAM ACTIVITIES.  ANGELO DESCRIBED HIGH- 
LEVEL GOZ RESISTANCE TO REQUESTING HUMANITARIAN 
ASSISTANCE DESPITE INCREASINGLY RELIABLE, BUT SO FAR 
INCONSISTENT, PROJECTIONS THAT THERE WILL BE FOOD 
SHORTAGES BY EARLY NEXT YEAR.  HE EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT 
CURRENT CONDITIONS ON COMMERCIAL FARMS COULD FURTHER 
AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION.  ANGELO SAID THAT HE PLANS TO 
ESTABLISH IMMEDIATELY A RELIEF AND RECOVERY UNIT, WITH 
OR WITHOUT GOZ APPROVAL THAT IN FACT WOULD BE A UN 
PLANNING AND ASSESSMENT MECHANISM.  ON THE PROGRAMMATIC 
FRONT, MOST DONORS ARE RELUCTANT TO COMMIT SPECIFIC 
RESOURCES UNTIL VIABLE DELIVERY MECHANISMS HAVE BEEN 
IDENTIFIED AND A MORE QUANTITATIVE PICTURE OF THE GRAIN 
SHORTAGE AND THE POTENTIAL FINANCIAL RESOURCES TO PAY 
FOR IT HAVE BEEN EXPLORED.  WHILE WE SHARE ANGELO'S 
VIEWS THAT A SHORTAGE IS NEARLY CERTAIN, WE HAVE MANY 
RESERVATIONS AT THIS POINT ABOUT THE BEST WAY TO ADDRESS 
IT.  WE INTEND TO GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THESE ISSUES 
WITH A SENSE OF URGENCY.  END SUMMARY. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  02480  01 OF 03  221422Z 
 
------------------------------ 
THE CRISIS: LET THEM EAT MAIZE 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (C) ANGELO AND A TEAM OF UN OFFICIALS KICKED OFF THE 
MEETING WITH DUTCH, GERMAN, DFID, SWEDE, NORWEGIAN, 
JAPANESE, FRENCH, DANISH, AND U.S. REPRESENTATIVES BY 
REVIEWING THE FOOD CRISIS.  ANGELO CHARACTERIZED THE 
SITUATION AS "EXTREMELY DIFFICULT" DUE TO WHAT HE 
DESCRIBED AS THE GOZ POSITION.  HE ASSERTED THAT 
WORKING-LEVEL OFFICIALS IN RELEVANT LINE MINISTRIES 
UNDERSTAND THERE IS A DIFFICULT "HUMANITARIAN" SITUATION 
AHEAD AND HAVE AGREED IN PRINCIPLE ON A DOCUMENT AND A 
DRAFT LETTER TO THE UN REQUESTING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE. 
HOWEVER, THEY HAVE NOT YET SUCCEEDED IN GETTING THE 
GREEN LIGHT FROM THE MINISTERIAL LEVEL, WHICH THEY CLAIM 
IS UNWILLING TO TALK OF HUMANITARIAN NEED FOR 
"POLITICAL" REASONS. 
 
¶3.  (U) THE LATEST FIGURES FROM THE GRAIN MARKETING 
BOARD (GMB) AND STRATEGIC GRAIN RESERVE (SGR) INDICATE 
THAT SHORTAGES LIE AHEAD.  ANGELO SAID THAT GMB HAS ONLY 
87 METRIC TONS OF WHEAT ON HAND, WITH THE REMAINDER 
(APPROXIMATELY 40,500 MT) IN PRIVATE HANDS.  ANGELO 
ESTIMATED THIS AS ABOUT SIX WEEKS OF SUPPLY.  MAIZE IS 
SIMILARLY PROBLEMATIC, SINCE BOTH SMALL HOLDERS AND 
COMMERCIAL FARMERS ARE HOLDING BACK THEIR STOCKS FROM 
THE MARKET.  (THIS COULD BE A WHOLLY WISE BUSINESS 
DECISION IN THE CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION OF RAMPANT 
INFLATION WHERE COMMODITIES ARE WORTH MORE THAN 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  02480  01 OF 03  221422Z 
DEPRECIATING CASH.)  THE GMB HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO 
PURCHASE 32,000 MT TO DATE.  SGR STOCKS ARE BEING DRAWN 
DOWN AND WITH MARKET PRICES INCREASING, THE SGR IS 
PROBABLY SHOWING A PROFIT ON PAPER, BUT IN HIGHLY 
OVERVALUED CURRENCY.  THE CRUX OF THE PROBLEM IS THE 
GMB'S OFFERING PRICE OF ZIMBABWE DOLLAR (ZD) 7,500/MT, 
FAR BELOW THE ZD 12,000/MT OFFERED BY PRIVATE SECTOR 
BUYERS BEFORE THE GMB TOOK MONOPOLISTIC CONTROL OF THE 
MARKET AND PROBABLY LESS THAN PRODUCER COST. (COMMENT: 
THIS TOO REFLECTS THE MARKET AT WORK OUTSIDE THE 
PARASTATAL GRAIN BOARDS, AND FURTHER SHOWS THE 
INCREASING SCARCITY OF MAIZE AND WHEAT AND THE STEEP 
DECLINE OF THE ZD.) 
 
¶4.  (SUB) TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS, THE GMB HAS ZD 
1.3 BILLION BUDGETED FOR THE PURCHASING CAMPAIGN; ZD 6 
BILLION IS REQUIRED TO PURCHASE THE ENTIRE CROP.  THE 
GMB NOW HOLDS 258,000 MT OF MAIZE, WITH ANOTHER 60,000 
MT IN PRIVATE HANDS, A SUPPLY THAT COULD BE STRETCHED TO 
MEET FOUR MONTHS OF CONSUMPTION. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) THERE ARE ADDITIONAL, LONGER-TERM CONCERNS AS 
WELL.  ANGELO SAID THAT HE IS NOT SURE THAT THE WHEAT 
NOW IN THE FIELDS WILL BE HARVESTED.  THE CURRENT 
OPTIONS FOR COMMERCIAL FARMERS ARE TO HARVEST AND SELL 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ4898 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02480  02 OF 03  221423Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   COR-01   AGRE-00  AID-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00 
      EB-00    VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     AC-01 
      NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OMB-01   PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00 
      P-00     SP-00    SS-00    TRSE-00  T-00     USIE-00  BBG-00 
      PMB-00   DRL-02   G-00     SAS-00     /006W 
                  ------------------151F24  221423Z /68 
O 221125Z AUG 01 ZEL 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9523 
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 
DEPT OF AGRICULTURE USD FAS WASHDC 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 002480 
 
SIPDIS 
 
CORRECTED COPY - USDA FAS WASHDC ADDED AS ADDEE NOT PASS TO 
 
STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/EPS 
 
USAID FOR AFR/SA, NAN NEWMAN, LANCE DOWNING, AND C.W.T. 
HAGELMAN; ALSO FOR B/HR/FFP JON BRAUSE 
 
PRETORIA FOR AGATT RICK HELMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/03 
TAGS: PREL EAID EAGR ZI
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02480  02 OF 03  221423Z 
SUBJECT: UNDP AND DONORS MEET ON FOOD AID FOR ZIMBABWE 
 
AT A LOSS, HARVEST AND HOLD (RISKING LOOTING, 
CONFISCATION, OR ARREST IF THE FOOD SITUATION 
DRASTICALLY SOURS), OR TO LEAVE IT IN THE FIELDS TO ROT. 
ANGELO SAID THAT IN HIS RECENT TRAVELS THROUGH RURAL 
AREAS, HE HAD SEEN LITTLE LAND PREPARATION UNDERWAY FOR 
THE RAINY SEASON. (WE HAVE HEARD SIMILAR STORIES BUT 
CANNOT QUANTIFY WHAT THE SPECIFIC IMPLICATIONS ARE OTHER 
THAN LESS GRAIN IS LIKELY TO BE HARVESTED.)  THERE WERE 
ALSO MORE SQUATTERS IN EVIDENCE, AND GROWING CHAOS 
SWIRLING AROUND THE ENTIRE RESETTLEMENT INITIATIVE. 
 
¶6.  (C) ANGELO CALCULATED (BY WHAT METHODOLOGY WE DON'T 
KNOW) THAT IN SPITE OF THE MANY VARIABLES, A 300-400,000 
MT SHORTAGE IS LIKELY IN 2002.  DESPITE RUMORS THAT THE 
GOZ WILL FORGO (UNSPECIFIED) EXTERNAL DEBT PAYMENTS AND 
USE REVENUE FOR GOLD SALES TO FINANCE COMMERCIAL 
PURCHASES, UNDP CONTACTS IN THE FINANCE MINISTRY SAY 
THAT THEY ARE NOT PRIVY TO HOW THE GOZ WILL COME UP WITH 
THE REQUIRED FOREX TO PAY FOR A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF 
IMPORTS.  IN RESPONSE TO QUERIES FROM THE DONORS, ANGELO 
SPECULATED THAT NGOS, INCLUDING MANY FAITH-BASED GROUPS, 
WOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO MAKE UP FOR COMMERCIAL 
SHORTFALLS THROUGH NON-GOVERNMENTAL DISTRIBUTION 
PROGRAMS IN RURAL AREAS.  HE STATED BLUNTLY THAT HE 
THOUGHT THAT GOZ/ZANU INSIDERS SEE SUCH "HUMANITARIAN" 
INITIATIVES AS A TROJAN HORSE THAT COULD HAVE MUCH WIDER 
IMPLICATIONS FOR ELECTORAL EDUCATION, HUMAN RIGHTS 
ACTIVITIES, AND PROMOTION OF THE OPPOSITION.  HE SAID 
THAT "OUR FRIEND JOSEPH (CHINOTIMBMA)" AND HIS ILK 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  02480  02 OF 03  221423Z 
RISKED RUNNING THE NGOS OUT OF RURAL AREAS FASTER THAN 
THEY WENT IN. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
HUMANITARIAN SECRETARIAT: WHAT'S IN A NAME? 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) ANGELO ADMITTED THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO PROGRESS 
IN LAUNCHING A PROPOSED UNDP HUMANITARIAN SECRETARIAT, 
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED TO COMMENCE OPERATIONS IN AUGUST, 
BECAUSE THE GOZ HAS NOT GIVEN UNDP A GREEN LIGHT.  (THE 
SWEDES, DUTCH AND US HAVE AGREED TO PROVIDE FUNDS FOR 
THIS INITIATIVE.)  ANGELO SAID THAT HE MAY HAVE NO 
OPTION BUT TO MOVE AHEAD AND ESTABLISH THIS 
UNILATERALLY, BRINGING IT IN UNDER THE GOZ'S RADAR USING 
THE RUBRIC OF A "RELIEF AND RECOVERY UNIT".  ABSENT GOZ 
APPROVAL OR TERMS OF REFERENCE, HE WOULD BILL THIS AS AN 
INTEGRAL PART OF UNDP PROGRAMMING. 
 
------------------- 
PROGRAM THE PROBLEM 
------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) ANGELO SAID THAT THIS APPROACH (ALSO A TROJAN 
HORSE) WOULD PERMIT EXPEDITIOUS PLANNING.  NONETHELESS, 
IT WOULD REQUIRE COSMETIC PROGRAMS -- CHILD SURVIVAL 
NEED ASSESSMENT, ETC. -- BEHIND WHICH IT COULD BEGIN 
ASSESSMENT AND PLANNING FOR FOOD DELIVERY MECHANISMS. 
SEVERAL OF THE DONORS RIGHTLY BALKED AT THIS.  THE DFID 
REPRESENTATIVE OBSERVED THAT IT MIGHT BE EASIER TO DO A 
NUMBER OF SMALL REGIONAL BILATERAL PROGRAMS UNDER THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  02480  02 OF 03  221423Z 
RADAR RATHER THAN A LARGER, MULTILATERAL EFFORT.  THE 
SWEDES AGREED, POINTING OUT THAT THE FOOD SHORTAGES 
COULD PROVE TO CONFIRM INITIAL ASSUMPTIONS THAT THEY 
WILL BE LOCALIZED.  THE DFID TEAM ALSO REJECTED OUT OF 
HAND RECENT GOZ SUGGESTIONS THAT A REGIONAL APPROACH BE 
TAKEN, SINCE IN DFID'S VIEW THIS WOULD PERMIT THE GOZ TO 
SANITIZE GRANT COMMODITIES THROUGH AN UPRIGHT NEIGHBOR 
SUCH AS BOTSWANA BEFORE LAYING HANDS ON THE CEREALS FOR 
GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS. 
 
¶9.  (C) OTHER PARTICIPANTS UNDERLINED THAT THE LACK OF 
WFP EXPERTISE ON THE GROUND COULD BE A SERIOUS 
IMPEDIMENT TO AN INDEPENDENT AND ACCURATE ASSESSMENT. 
ANGELO SAID THAT FOR THE MOMENT HE WAS TAPPING WFP 
PERSONNEL FROM ZAMBIA AND MOZAMBIQUE TO BRIDGE THE GAP. 
THERE WAS A FINAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE DONORS THAT NONE 
OF THEM FAVOR A RELIEF AND RECOVERY UNIT THAT AT THIS 
TIME GOES BEYOND AN ASSESSMENT, MONITORING AND 
COORDINATION ROLE.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SWEDES, 
EVERYONE WANTED TO SEE WHAT FOOD DELIVERY MECHANISMS 
COULD BE IDENTIFIED BEFORE COMMITTING RESOURCES. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ4899 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02480  03 OF 03  221423Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   COR-01   AGRE-00  AID-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00 
      EB-00    VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     AC-01 
      NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OMB-01   PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00 
      P-00     SP-00    SS-00    TRSE-00  T-00     USIE-00  BBG-00 
      PMB-00   DRL-02   G-00     SAS-00     /006W 
                  ------------------151F26  221424Z /68 
O 221125Z AUG 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9524 
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 
DEPT OF AGRICULTURE USD FAS WASHDC 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 002480 
 
SIPDIS 
 
CORRECTED COPY - USDA FAS WASHDC ADDED AS ADDEE NOT PASS TO 
 
STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/EPS 
 
USAID FOR AFR/SA, NAN NEWMAN, LANCE DOWNING, AND C.W.T. 
HAGELMAN; ALSO FOR B/HR/FFP JON BRAUSE 
 
PRETORIA FOR AGATT RICK HELMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/03 
TAGS: PREL EAID EAGR ZI
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02480  03 OF 03  221423Z 
SUBJECT: UNDP AND DONORS MEET ON FOOD AID FOR ZIMBABWE 
 
¶10.  (C) THERE WAS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A DOMESTIC 
SHORTFALL OF CEREALS IS A CERTAINTY, BUT THERE WAS NO 
CONCLUSIVE AGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THIS OR TO WHAT 
THE EXTENT OF EXTERNAL NON-COMMERCIAL ASSISTANCE MIGHT 
BE REQUIRED.  FOR ITS PART, THE GOZ INPUT INTO THE MOST 
RECENT SADC FOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM REPORT INDICATES 
THAT THE GOZ PLANS TO PURCHASE COMMERCIALLY 544,000 MT 
OF CEREAL AND RESTORE THE SGR TO A CARRYOVER SURPLUS OF 
500,000 MT OF MAIZE AND 200,000 MT OF WHEAT.  THE WFP IS 
STILL IN THE WATCHING PHASE (REFTEL) AND THE UNDP HERE 
FINDS ITSELF FLANKED BY A RECALCITRANT AND POLITICIZED 
GOZ ON ONE SIDE, AND SKEPTICAL DONORS ON THE OTHER. 
 
¶11.  (C) GIVEN THE WELTER OF CONFLICTING FIGURES AND 
APPROACHES, ADDITIONAL INFORMATION/PLANNING WILL BE 
NECESSARY BEFORE A COHERENT BILATERAL OR MULTILATERAL 
USG PROPOSAL CAN BE PLACED ON THE TABLE.  THE MISSION 
WILL CONSULT WIDELY AND PROVIDE INPUT AS URGENTLY AS 
POSSIBLE.  WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED THAT ZIMBABWE'S 
EVOLVING ECONOMIC INSTABILITY, DRIVEN BY A STEEPLY 
DECLINING ZD AND UNREALISTIC EXCHANGE RATES, WILL HAVE A 
HEAVY AND MEASURABLE IMPACT ON THE FUTURE FOOD SITUATION 
AND THE GOZ'S ABILITY TO PURCHASE GRAIN COMMERCIALLY, 
BOTH DOGMATICALLY AND FOR IMPORTS.  THUS FAR THE GOZ 
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT IN ITS 
CALCULATIONS. 
 
ROTH 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  02480  03 OF 03  221423Z 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
> 
@@@OASYS@@@ 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ4382 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02480  01 OF 03  221200Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AGRE-00  AID-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00  EB-00 
      VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     AC-01    NSAE-00 
      NSCE-00  OMB-01   PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00 
      SP-00    SS-00    TRSE-00  T-00     USIE-00  BBG-00   PMB-00 
      DRL-02   G-00     SAS-00     /005W 
                  ------------------150EEC  221200Z /75 
O 221125Z AUG 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9522 
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002480 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT PASS TO DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
 
STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/EPS 
 
USAID FOR AFR/SA, NAN NEWMAN, LANCE DOWNING, AND C.W.T. 
HAGELMAN; ALSO FOR B/HR/FFP JON BRAUSE 
 
PRETORIA FOR AGATT RICK HELMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/03 
TAGS: PREL EAID EAGR ZI
SUBJECT: UNDP AND DONORS MEET ON FOOD AID FOR ZIMBABWE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02480  01 OF 03  221200Z 
REF:  ROME 4322 
 
CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY.  UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE VICTOR 
ANGELO MET WITH A LARGE SEGMENT OF THE DONOR COMMUNITY 
ON AUGUST 20 AT THE FORMER'S INVITATION TO DISCUSS 
DEVELOPMENTS ON THE FOOD AID FRONT.  THE GROUP FOCUSED 
IN SEQUENCE ON THE DIMENSIONS OF THE CRISIS, 
ESTABLISHMENT OF A HUMANITARIAN SECRETARIAT WITHIN UNDP, 
AND POSSIBLE PROGRAM ACTIVITIES.  ANGELO DESCRIBED HIGH- 
LEVEL GOZ RESISTANCE TO REQUESTING HUMANITARIAN 
ASSISTANCE DESPITE INCREASINGLY RELIABLE, BUT SO FAR 
INCONSISTENT, PROJECTIONS THAT THERE WILL BE FOOD 
SHORTAGES BY EARLY NEXT YEAR.  HE EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT 
CURRENT CONDITIONS ON COMMERCIAL FARMS COULD FURTHER 
AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION.  ANGELO SAID THAT HE PLANS TO 
ESTABLISH IMMEDIATELY A RELIEF AND RECOVERY UNIT, WITH 
OR WITHOUT GOZ APPROVAL THAT IN FACT WOULD BE A UN 
PLANNING AND ASSESSMENT MECHANISM.  ON THE PROGRAMMATIC 
FRONT, MOST DONORS ARE RELUCTANT TO COMMIT SPECIFIC 
RESOURCES UNTIL VIABLE DELIVERY MECHANISMS HAVE BEEN 
IDENTIFIED AND A MORE QUANTITATIVE PICTURE OF THE GRAIN 
SHORTAGE AND THE POTENTIAL FINANCIAL RESOURCES TO PAY 
FOR IT HAVE BEEN EXPLORED.  WHILE WE SHARE ANGELO'S 
VIEWS THAT A SHORTAGE IS NEARLY CERTAIN, WE HAVE MANY 
RESERVATIONS AT THIS POINT ABOUT THE BEST WAY TO ADDRESS 
IT.  WE INTEND TO GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THESE ISSUES 
WITH A SENSE OF URGENCY.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------ 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  02480  01 OF 03  221200Z 
THE CRISIS: LET THEM EAT MAIZE 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (C) ANGELO AND A TEAM OF UN OFFICIALS KICKED OFF THE 
MEETING WITH DUTCH, GERMAN, DFID, SWEDE, NORWEGIAN, 
JAPANESE, FRENCH, DANISH, AND U.S. REPRESENTATIVES BY 
REVIEWING THE FOOD CRISIS.  ANGELO CHARACTERIZED THE 
SITUATION AS "EXTREMELY DIFFICULT" DUE TO WHAT HE 
DESCRIBED AS THE GOZ POSITION.  HE ASSERTED THAT 
WORKING-LEVEL OFFICIALS IN RELEVANT LINE MINISTRIES 
UNDERSTAND THERE IS A DIFFICULT "HUMANITARIAN" SITUATION 
AHEAD AND HAVE AGREED IN PRINCIPLE ON A DOCUMENT AND A 
DRAFT LETTER TO THE UN REQUESTING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE. 
HOWEVER, THEY HAVE NOT YET SUCCEEDED IN GETTING THE 
GREEN LIGHT FROM THE MINISTERIAL LEVEL, WHICH THEY CLAIM 
IS UNWILLING TO TALK OF HUMANITARIAN NEED FOR 
"POLITICAL" REASONS. 
 
¶3.  (U) THE LATEST FIGURES FROM THE GRAIN MARKETING 
BOARD (GMB) AND STRATEGIC GRAIN RESERVE (SGR) INDICATE 
THAT SHORTAGES LIE AHEAD.  ANGELO SAID THAT GMB HAS ONLY 
87 METRIC TONS OF WHEAT ON HAND, WITH THE REMAINDER 
(APPROXIMATELY 40,500 MT) IN PRIVATE HANDS.  ANGELO 
ESTIMATED THIS AS ABOUT SIX WEEKS OF SUPPLY.  MAIZE IS 
SIMILARLY PROBLEMATIC, SINCE BOTH SMALL HOLDERS AND 
COMMERCIAL FARMERS ARE HOLDING BACK THEIR STOCKS FROM 
THE MARKET.  (THIS COULD BE A WHOLLY WISE BUSINESS 
DECISION IN THE CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION OF RAMPANT 
INFLATION WHERE COMMODITIES ARE WORTH MORE THAN 
DEPRECIATING CASH.)  THE GMB HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO 
PURCHASE 32,000 MT TO DATE.  SGR STOCKS ARE BEING DRAWN 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  02480  01 OF 03  221200Z 
DOWN AND WITH MARKET PRICES INCREASING, THE SGR IS 
PROBABLY SHOWING A PROFIT ON PAPER, BUT IN HIGHLY 
OVERVALUED CURRENCY.  THE CRUX OF THE PROBLEM IS THE 
GMB'S OFFERING PRICE OF ZIMBABWE DOLLAR (ZD) 7,500/MT, 
FAR BELOW THE ZD 12,000/MT OFFERED BY PRIVATE SECTOR 
BUYERS BEFORE THE GMB TOOK MONOPOLISTIC CONTROL OF THE 
MARKET AND PROBABLY LESS THAN PRODUCER COST. (COMMENT: 
THIS TOO REFLECTS THE MARKET AT WORK OUTSIDE THE 
PARASTATAL GRAIN BOARDS, AND FURTHER SHOWS THE 
INCREASING SCARCITY OF MAIZE AND WHEAT AND THE STEEP 
DECLINE OF THE ZD.) 
 
¶4.  (SUB) TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS, THE GMB HAS ZD 
1.3 BILLION BUDGETED FOR THE PURCHASING CAMPAIGN; ZD 6 
BILLION IS REQUIRED TO PURCHASE THE ENTIRE CROP.  THE 
GMB NOW HOLDS 258,000 MT OF MAIZE, WITH ANOTHER 60,000 
MT IN PRIVATE HANDS, A SUPPLY THAT COULD BE STRETCHED TO 
MEET FOUR MONTHS OF CONSUMPTION. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) THERE ARE ADDITIONAL, LONGER-TERM CONCERNS AS 
WELL.  ANGELO SAID THAT HE IS NOT SURE THAT THE WHEAT 
NOW IN THE FIELDS WILL BE HARVESTED.  THE CURRENT 
OPTIONS FOR COMMERCIAL FARMERS ARE TO HARVEST AND SELL 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ4383 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02480  02 OF 03  221201Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AGRE-00  AID-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00  EB-00 
      VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     AC-01    NSAE-00 
      NSCE-00  OMB-01   PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00 
      SP-00    SS-00    TRSE-00  T-00     USIE-00  BBG-00   PMB-00 
      DRL-02   G-00     SAS-00     /005W 
                  ------------------150EF8  221201Z /75 
O 221125Z AUG 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9523 
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 002480 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT PASS TO DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
 
STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/EPS 
 
USAID FOR AFR/SA, NAN NEWMAN, LANCE DOWNING, AND C.W.T. 
HAGELMAN; ALSO FOR B/HR/FFP JON BRAUSE 
 
PRETORIA FOR AGATT RICK HELMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/03 
TAGS: PREL EAID EAGR ZI
SUBJECT: UNDP AND DONORS MEET ON FOOD AID FOR ZIMBABWE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02480  02 OF 03  221201Z 
AT A LOSS, HARVEST AND HOLD (RISKING LOOTING, 
CONFISCATION, OR ARREST IF THE FOOD SITUATION 
DRASTICALLY SOURS), OR TO LEAVE IT IN THE FIELDS TO ROT. 
ANGELO SAID THAT IN HIS RECENT TRAVELS THROUGH RURAL 
AREAS, HE HAD SEEN LITTLE LAND PREPARATION UNDERWAY FOR 
THE RAINY SEASON. (WE HAVE HEARD SIMILAR STORIES BUT 
CANNOT QUANTIFY WHAT THE SPECIFIC IMPLICATIONS ARE OTHER 
THAN LESS GRAIN IS LIKELY TO BE HARVESTED.)  THERE WERE 
ALSO MORE SQUATTERS IN EVIDENCE, AND GROWING CHAOS 
SWIRLING AROUND THE ENTIRE RESETTLEMENT INITIATIVE. 
 
¶6.  (C) ANGELO CALCULATED (BY WHAT METHODOLOGY WE DON'T 
KNOW) THAT IN SPITE OF THE MANY VARIABLES, A 300-400,000 
MT SHORTAGE IS LIKELY IN 2002.  DESPITE RUMORS THAT THE 
GOZ WILL FORGO (UNSPECIFIED) EXTERNAL DEBT PAYMENTS AND 
USE REVENUE FOR GOLD SALES TO FINANCE COMMERCIAL 
PURCHASES, UNDP CONTACTS IN THE FINANCE MINISTRY SAY 
THAT THEY ARE NOT PRIVY TO HOW THE GOZ WILL COME UP WITH 
THE REQUIRED FOREX TO PAY FOR A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF 
IMPORTS.  IN RESPONSE TO QUERIES FROM THE DONORS, ANGELO 
SPECULATED THAT NGOS, INCLUDING MANY FAITH-BASED GROUPS, 
WOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO MAKE UP FOR COMMERCIAL 
SHORTFALLS THROUGH NON-GOVERNMENTAL DISTRIBUTION 
PROGRAMS IN RURAL AREAS.  HE STATED BLUNTLY THAT HE 
THOUGHT THAT GOZ/ZANU INSIDERS SEE SUCH "HUMANITARIAN" 
INITIATIVES AS A TROJAN HORSE THAT COULD HAVE MUCH WIDER 
IMPLICATIONS FOR ELECTORAL EDUCATION, HUMAN RIGHTS 
ACTIVITIES, AND PROMOTION OF THE OPPOSITION.  HE SAID 
THAT "OUR FRIEND JOSEPH (CHINOTIMBMA)" AND HIS ILK 
RISKED RUNNING THE NGOS OUT OF RURAL AREAS FASTER THAN 
THEY WENT IN. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  02480  02 OF 03  221201Z 
 
------------------------------------------- 
HUMANITARIAN SECRETARIAT: WHAT'S IN A NAME? 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) ANGELO ADMITTED THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO PROGRESS 
IN LAUNCHING A PROPOSED UNDP HUMANITARIAN SECRETARIAT, 
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED TO COMMENCE OPERATIONS IN AUGUST, 
BECAUSE THE GOZ HAS NOT GIVEN UNDP A GREEN LIGHT.  (THE 
SWEDES, DUTCH AND US HAVE AGREED TO PROVIDE FUNDS FOR 
THIS INITIATIVE.)  ANGELO SAID THAT HE MAY HAVE NO 
OPTION BUT TO MOVE AHEAD AND ESTABLISH THIS 
UNILATERALLY, BRINGING IT IN UNDER THE GOZ'S RADAR USING 
THE RUBRIC OF A "RELIEF AND RECOVERY UNIT".  ABSENT GOZ 
APPROVAL OR TERMS OF REFERENCE, HE WOULD BILL THIS AS AN 
INTEGRAL PART OF UNDP PROGRAMMING. 
 
------------------- 
PROGRAM THE PROBLEM 
------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) ANGELO SAID THAT THIS APPROACH (ALSO A TROJAN 
HORSE) WOULD PERMIT EXPEDITIOUS PLANNING.  NONETHELESS, 
IT WOULD REQUIRE COSMETIC PROGRAMS -- CHILD SURVIVAL 
NEED ASSESSMENT, ETC. -- BEHIND WHICH IT COULD BEGIN 
ASSESSMENT AND PLANNING FOR FOOD DELIVERY MECHANISMS. 
SEVERAL OF THE DONORS RIGHTLY BALKED AT THIS.  THE DFID 
REPRESENTATIVE OBSERVED THAT IT MIGHT BE EASIER TO DO A 
NUMBER OF SMALL REGIONAL BILATERAL PROGRAMS UNDER THE 
RADAR RATHER THAN A LARGER, MULTILATERAL EFFORT.  THE 
SWEDES AGREED, POINTING OUT THAT THE FOOD SHORTAGES 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  02480  02 OF 03  221201Z 
COULD PROVE TO CONFIRM INITIAL ASSUMPTIONS THAT THEY 
WILL BE LOCALIZED.  THE DFID TEAM ALSO REJECTED OUT OF 
HAND RECENT GOZ SUGGESTIONS THAT A REGIONAL APPROACH BE 
TAKEN, SINCE IN DFID'S VIEW THIS WOULD PERMIT THE GOZ TO 
SANITIZE GRANT COMMODITIES THROUGH AN UPRIGHT NEIGHBOR 
SUCH AS BOTSWANA BEFORE LAYING HANDS ON THE CEREALS FOR 
GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS. 
 
¶9.  (C) OTHER PARTICIPANTS UNDERLINED THAT THE LACK OF 
WFP EXPERTISE ON THE GROUND COULD BE A SERIOUS 
IMPEDIMENT TO AN INDEPENDENT AND ACCURATE ASSESSMENT. 
ANGELO SAID THAT FOR THE MOMENT HE WAS TAPPING WFP 
PERSONNEL FROM ZAMBIA AND MOZAMBIQUE TO BRIDGE THE GAP. 
THERE WAS A FINAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE DONORS THAT NONE 
OF THEM FAVOR A RELIEF AND RECOVERY UNIT THAT AT THIS 
TIME GOES BEYOND AN ASSESSMENT, MONITORING AND 
COORDINATION ROLE.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SWEDES, 
EVERYONE WANTED TO SEE WHAT FOOD DELIVERY MECHANISMS 
COULD BE IDENTIFIED BEFORE COMMITTING RESOURCES. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ4385 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02480  03 OF 03  221201Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AGRE-00  AID-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00  EB-00 
      VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     AC-01    NSAE-00 
      NSCE-00  OMB-01   PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00 
      SP-00    SS-00    TRSE-00  T-00     USIE-00  BBG-00   PMB-00 
      DRL-02   G-00     SAS-00     /005W 
                  ------------------150F04  221201Z /75 
O 221125Z AUG 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9524 
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 002480 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT PASS TO DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
 
STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/EPS 
 
USAID FOR AFR/SA, NAN NEWMAN, LANCE DOWNING, AND C.W.T. 
HAGELMAN; ALSO FOR B/HR/FFP JON BRAUSE 
 
PRETORIA FOR AGATT RICK HELMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/03 
TAGS: PREL EAID EAGR ZI
SUBJECT: UNDP AND DONORS MEET ON FOOD AID FOR ZIMBABWE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02480  03 OF 03  221201Z 
 
¶10.  (C) THERE WAS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A DOMESTIC 
SHORTFALL OF CEREALS IS A CERTAINTY, BUT THERE WAS NO 
CONCLUSIVE AGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THIS OR TO WHAT 
THE EXTENT OF EXTERNAL NON-COMMERCIAL ASSISTANCE MIGHT 
BE REQUIRED.  FOR ITS PART, THE GOZ INPUT INTO THE MOST 
RECENT SADC FOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM REPORT INDICATES 
THAT THE GOZ PLANS TO PURCHASE COMMERCIALLY 544,000 MT 
OF CEREAL AND RESTORE THE SGR TO A CARRYOVER SURPLUS OF 
500,000 MT OF MAIZE AND 200,000 MT OF WHEAT.  THE WFP IS 
STILL IN THE WATCHING PHASE (REFTEL) AND THE UNDP HERE 
FINDS ITSELF FLANKED BY A RECALCITRANT AND POLITICIZED 
GOZ ON ONE SIDE, AND SKEPTICAL DONORS ON THE OTHER. 
 
¶11.  (C) GIVEN THE WELTER OF CONFLICTING FIGURES AND 
APPROACHES, ADDITIONAL INFORMATION/PLANNING WILL BE 
NECESSARY BEFORE A COHERENT BILATERAL OR MULTILATERAL 
USG PROPOSAL CAN BE PLACED ON THE TABLE.  THE MISSION 
WILL CONSULT WIDELY AND PROVIDE INPUT AS URGENTLY AS 
POSSIBLE.  WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED THAT ZIMBABWE'S 
EVOLVING ECONOMIC INSTABILITY, DRIVEN BY A STEEPLY 
DECLINING ZD AND UNREALISTIC EXCHANGE RATES, WILL HAVE A 
HEAVY AND MEASURABLE IMPACT ON THE FUTURE FOOD SITUATION 
AND THE GOZ'S ABILITY TO PURCHASE GRAIN COMMERCIALLY, 
BOTH DOGMATICALLY AND FOR IMPORTS.  THUS FAR THE GOZ 
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT IN ITS 
CALCULATIONS. 
 
ROTH 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  02480  03 OF 03  221201Z 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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