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Reference ID	Created	Released	Classification	Origin
01HARARE2311	2001-08-01 13:55	2011-08-30 01:44	CONFIDENTIAL	Embassy Harare

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

011355Z Aug 01


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ2457

PAGE 01        HARARE  02311  01 OF 02  011401Z 
ACTION AF-00    

INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  
      DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00  
      FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01   
      L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  
      PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    SSO-00   
      STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01   DRL-02   
      G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /010W
                  ------------------0CB2F7  011401Z /38    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9402
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002311 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/11 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY HANDILY WINS KEY BY- 
ELECTION 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02311  01 OF 02  011401Z 
REF: A) HARARE 2239, B) HARARE 1992 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES AUBREY HOOKS FOR 
REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
¶1.  (C) RULING PARTY CANDIDATE AND MASHONALAND CENTRAL 
GOVERNOR ELLIOT MANYIKA SOUNDLY DEFEATED OPPOSITION 
CANDIDATE ELLIOT PFEBVE IN THE PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION 
HELD JULY 28-29 IN BINDURA DISTRICT.  THE RULING ZANU-PF 
WIDENED ITS MARGIN OF VICTORY CONSIDERABLY OVER LAST 
JUNE'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, IN WHICH THE MDC LOST BY 
JUST OVER 2,000 VOTES.  MANYIKA POLLED 15,864 VOTES 
AGAINST 9,456 FOR PFEBVE, AN INCREASE OF 4,300 VOTES IN 
THE RULING ZANU-PF'S MARGIN OF VICTORY OVER LAST YEAR. 
THE BY-ELECTION WAS HELD TO REPLACE YOUTH DEVELOPMENT 
MINISTER AND ZANU-PF COMMISSAR BORDER GEZI, WHO DIED IN 
AN APRIL CAR ACCIDENT.  THE TURNOUT OF 25,849 REGISTERED 
VOTERS WAS VIRTUALLY THE SAME AS LAST JUNE.  THE 
DOMESTIC MONITORING ORGANIZATION ZIMBABWE ELECTION 
SUPPORT NETWORK (ZESN) TOLD US THAT 56,651 VOTERS WERE 
REGISTERED IN THE DISTRICT FOR THE ELECTION, A 6.5 
PERCENT INCREASE OVER THE 53,191 REGISTERED LAST JUNE. 
RINDAI CHIPFUNDE, COORDINATOR OF ZESN, SAID THE SIZE OF 
THE INCREASE IN REGISTERED VOTERS RAISED EYEBROWS.  SHE 
SPECULATED THAT MOST OF THE NEWLY-REGISTERED VOTERS WERE 
RECENTLY-RESETTLED PEASANT FARMERS, MOST OF WHOM SUPPORT 
ZANU-PF.  (COMMENT: THE INCREASE COULD ALSO BE 
ATTRIBUTED TO REGISTRATION CAMPAIGNS BY BOTH ZANU-PF AND 
MDC, BUT NOT TO DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERNS OR ECONOMIC GROWTH 
IN THE REGION.  END COMMENT.) 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  02311  01 OF 02  011401Z 
¶2.  (C) THE POLLING DAYS WERE MARRED BY A NUMBER OF 
VIOLENT INCIDENTS.  THE INDEPENDENT "DAILY NEWS" 
REPORTED THAT ON 28 JULY, 21 MDC SUPPORTERS WERE 
ABDUCTED BY ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS, AN MDC VEHICLE WAS 
STONED, AND FOUR OTHER SUPPORTERS WERE BEATEN AND 
HOSPITALIZED.  THE PRESS REPORTED THAT ON 29 JULY, 
POLICE DETAINED MDC CANDIDATE PFEBVE AND 25 OTHERS FOR 
ALLEGEDLY GETTING TOO CLOSE TO A POLLING STATION.  MDC 
PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI TOLD US JULY 31 THAT ZANU-PF 
BUSED LARGE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE INTO BINDURA CONSTITUENCY, 
ESTABLISHED BASES THAT WERE USED BY WAR VETERANS AND 
PARTY THUGS TO BEAT AND INTIMIDATE VOTERS, AND POSTED 
200 ZANU-PF YOUTHS OUTSIDE EVERY POLLING CENTER, A 
PRESENCE THAT WAS INEVITABLY INTIMIDATING TO VOTERS.  HE 
ADDED THAT IN LIGHT OF THESE EFFORTS, IT WOULD HAVE BEEN 
NAIVE TO EXPECT THE ELECTION TO GO ANY OTHER WAY.  THE 
MDC HAD EXPECTED TO RECEIVE ABOUT 40 PERCENT OF THE 
VOTES (ITS CANDIDATE RECEIVED 36 PERCENT), AND 
TSVANGIRAI SAID THE MDC WOULD NOT CONTEST THE RESULT. 
 
SIPDIS 
MDC ELECTIONS DIRECTOR PAUL THEMBA NYATHI TOLD US 
EARLIER THAT AN OPPOSITION WIN IN BINDURA COULD HAVE 
SPARKED A MORE HARSH AND WIDESPREAD CRACKDOWN ON THE 
MDC, OR HAVE CONVINCED ZANU-PF NOT TO HOLD MORE 
ELECTIONS AS THEY COULD NOT WIN THEM.  THE SEVERAL 
MONTHS PRECEDING THE ELECTION WERE BADLY MARRED BY 
POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION, MAINLY AT THE 
EXPENSE OF MDC SUPPORTERS (REF B).  HUNDREDS OF ZANU-PF 
SUPPORTERS ATTACKED TSVANGIRAI'S MOTORCADE ON 22 JULY AS 
HE TRIED TO CAMPAIGN FOR PFEBVE (REF A). 
 
¶3.  (C) COMMENT:  THE BINDURA VOTE, THE FIRST 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  02311  01 OF 02  011401Z 
PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION IN NEARLY SEVEN MONTHS, WAS A 
CRUCIAL TEST FOR ZIMBABWE'S TWO MAIN PARTIES.  THE 
RESULT DEMONSTRATED THAT THERE ARE STILL A LARGE NUMBER 
OF RURAL RESIDENTS WILLING TO VOTE FOR ZANU-PF; A HEAVY 
INVESTMENT IN PATRONAGE AND GOVERNMENT HANDOUTS BY 
BINDURA'S FORMER MP, BORDER GEZI, CERTAINLY HELPED 
MAINTAIN SUPPORT AMONG THE RULING PARTY'S CORE CADRE IN 
THE DISTRICT.  DIRTY TRICKS, SUCH AS REGISTERING NON- 
RESIDENT VOTERS AND TURNING AWAY SUSPECTED MDC 
SUPPORTERS FROM THE POLLING BOOTH, PROBABLY PLAYED A 
ROLE AS WELL.  WE SUSPECT THAT VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION 
WERE ALSO SIGNIFICANT FACTORS.  MORE THAN HALF OF ALL 
REGISTERED VOTERS STAYED HOME, AND THE NUMBER OF MDC 
VOTES FELL BY 16 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR.  ZANU-PF'S 
ABILITY TO CONCENTRATE ITS INTIMIDATION MACHINERY ON A 
SINGLE DISTRICT ACCOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE SWING IN VOTES 
FROM LAST YEAR.  THE MDC LIKELY WILL NOT CONSIDER THE 
BINDURA RESULT A SIGNIFICANT BLOW TO ITS PRESIDENTIAL 
PROSPECTS, GIVEN THAT MASHONALAND HAS LONG BEEN A ZANU- 
PF STRONGHOLD.  MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE 
TOLD US RECENTLY THAT THE OPPOSITION PARTY NEEDS TO 
GARNER 40 PERCENT OF THE VOTES IN MASHONALAND TO WIN THE 
PRESIDENCY. 
 
¶4.  (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: THE ELECTION OF ELLIOT 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ2458 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02311  02 OF 02  011401Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00 
      DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00 
      FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01 
      L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01 
      PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    IRM-00 
      SSO-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /010W 
                  ------------------0CB300  011401Z /38 
O 011355Z AUG 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9403 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002311 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/11 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY HANDILY WINS KEY BY- 
ELECTION 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02311  02 OF 02  011401Z 
MANYIKA PLACES HIM ON THE NATIONAL STAGE, AND HIS SEAT 
IN PARLIAMENT IS A LIKELY STEPPING STONE TO NATIONAL 
OFFICE.  PRESIDENT MUGABE STILL HAS SEVERAL VACANT 
CABINET POSITIONS, AND MANYIKA'S ABILITY TO HELP ZANU-PF 
SECURE A CORE AREA OF SUPPORT MAY WELL BE REWARDED WITH 
AN APPOINTMENT AS MINISTER OF YOUTH DEVELOPMENT, GENDER 
AND EMPLOYMENT CREATION, GEZI'S OLD JOB.  END COMMENT. 
 
HOOKS 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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Viewing cable 01HARARE2311, ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY HANDILY WINS KEY BY-