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Reference ID	Created	Released	Classification	Origin
01HARARE1672	2001-05-22 12:07	2011-08-30 01:44	CONFIDENTIAL	Embassy Harare

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

221207Z May 01


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5898

PAGE 01        HARARE  01672  01 OF 03  221223Z 
ACTION AF-00    

INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  ACQ-00   CIAE-00  INL-00   
      DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   
      FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    
      L-00     VCE-00   MED-07   AC-01    DCP-01   NSAE-00  OIC-02   
      OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     
      SP-00    STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01   
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /017W
                  ------------------EF359B  221223Z /38    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8933
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001672 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
USAID FOR AA/AFR VDICKSON-HORTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/11 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ZI
SUBJECT: RECENT EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE UNDERMINE RULING 
PARTY STRENGTH 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01672  01 OF 03  221223Z 
 
REF: A) HARARE 1648, B) HARARE 1620, C) HARARE 1535, 
     D) HARARE 1515, E) HARARE 1470 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING FOR REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: RECENT EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE ARE BEGINNING 
TO UNDERMINE A ZANU-PF THAT HAD BEEN INFUSED WITH NEW 
CONFIDENCE SINCE ITS DECEMBER 2000 CONGRESS.  THE SUDDEN 
DEATH OF PARTY COMMISSAR BORDER GEZI, THE RESIGNATION OF 
INDUSTRY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE MINISTER NKOSANA MOYO, 
THE LOSS OF THE MASVINGO MAYORSHIP TO THE OPPOSITION 
MDC, AND THE FAILED CAMPAIGN TO BOOST URBAN SUPPORT BY 
ATTACKING BUSINESSES AND NGOS, ARE EVENTS THAT HAVE 
DULLED THE RULING PARTY'S PRESIDENTIAL RACE PROSPECTS. 
DOUBTS ARE GROWING ABOUT THE PARTY'S RECENTLY-COMPLETED 
RESTRUCTURING EXERCISE, WHICH HAD BEEN LED BY GEZI, IN 
WHETHER IT WILL HELP THE PARTY MORE THAN HURT IT IN NEXT 
YEAR'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  FINGER POINTING IS ON THE 
UPSWING, AND OLD DIVISIONS ARE REAPPEARING AS CONCERNS 
ABOUT PRESIDENT MUGABE'S CANDIDACY FOR THE ELECTION 
RESURFACE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
SUDDEN VACANCIES WILL BE HARD TO FILL 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) THE APRIL 28 DEATH OF YOUTH DEVELOPMENT 
MINISTER, PARTY COMMISSAR, AND BINDURA MP BORDER GEZI IN 
A CAR ACCIDENT (REF E) LEFT A YAWNING GAP IN THE ZANU-PF 
STRUCTURE.  IT WILL BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FIND AS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  01672  01 OF 03  221223Z 
ENTHUSIASTIC A PARTY PROMOTER TO FILL ALL THREE OF 
GEZI'S POSITIONS.  BRIAN RAFTOPOULOS, A RESEARCH FELLOW 
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE, TOLD US THERE IS NO ONE 
IN THE PARTY WHO CAN ADEQUATELY REPLACE GEZI.  WHEN 
ASKED WHETHER GEZI'S DEATH HAD NOT BEEN AN ACCIDENT, 
RAFTOPOULOS DISCOUNTED THE POPULAR RUMOR, SAYING GEZI 
HAD BEEN TOO VALUABLE TO THE PARTY FOR ANY RIVAL TO KILL 
HIM, AND IN ANY CASE, WAS TOO YOUNG TO BE A SERIOUS 
CONTENDER FOR A MAJOR POSITION OF POWER.  FRED SHAVA, 
ZANU-PF'S NATIONAL DIRECTOR FOR ADMINISTRATION, TOLD 
POLOFF THAT GEZI HAD BEEN A "FANTASTIC ORGANIZER." 
SHAVA REFUSED TO SPECULATE ON WHO HIS REPLACEMENT AS 
POLITICAL COMMISSAR MIGHT BE, BUT SAID HE WOULD COME 
FROM THE PARTY'S CENTRAL COMMITTEE, IF NOT THE SMALLER 
POLITBURO.  THE PARTY WILL BE LOOKING FOR SOMEONE WITH 
GEZI'S "AGILITY," THE DIRECTOR STATED.  THE MAY 11 
EDITION OF THE "ZIMBABWE INDEPENDENT" LISTED CHINHOYI MP 
PHILIP CHIYANGWA, BUSINESSMAN JAMES MAKAMBA, AND 
MASHONALAND CENTRAL GOVERNOR ELLIOT MANYIKA AS THE 
LIKELIEST SUCCESSORS.  MINISTER OF STATE FOR NATIONAL 
SECURITY NICHOLAS GOCHE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY AS HE IS 
THE ACTING COMMISSAR.  AS FOR WHO WOULD BE APPOINTED 
YOUTH DEVELOPMENT MINISTER, SHAVA REMARKED THAT THAT IS 
PURELY "THE PRESIDENT'S PREROGATIVE." 
 
¶3.  (C) BOTH SHAVA AND RAFTOPOULOS CHARACTERIZED 
INDUSTRY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE MINISTER NKOSANA MOYO'S 
RESIGNATION (REF C) AS UNIMPORTANT.  SHAVA COMMENTED 
THAT IT WAS "OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO THE PARTY," AS MOYO 
HAD NOT EVEN BEEN A PARTY MEMBER.  RAFTOPOULOS LIKENED 
THE RESIGNATION TO A "BLIP ON THE SCREEN" BECAUSE MOYO, 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  01672  01 OF 03  221223Z 
AS A REFORMER, HAD NOT BEEN ABLE TO DO MUCH ANYWAY. 
WHEN ASKED ABOUT RUMORS OF MORE HIGH-PROFILE 
RESIGNATIONS, RAFTOPOULOS SAID THAT EVEN IF THEY DID 
OCCUR, THEY WOULD NOT LEAD TO "CONVULSIONS" IN THE PARTY 
AS THEY HAD IN ZAMBIA'S RULING PARTY.  (NOTE: DISSENTION 
AMONG SENIOR CIVIL SERVANTS SEEMS TO BE ON THE INCREASE. 
MINISTRY OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT PERMANENT SECRETARY FINNIE 
MUNYIRA TOLD US MAY 16 THAT HE HAD RECENTLY FILED HIS 
RETIREMENT PAPERS BECAUSE HE IS FED UP.  A DIRECTOR IN 
THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE, AND KEY INTERLOCUTOR BETWEEN 
DONORS AND GOZ, HAS ALSO FILED RETIREMENT PAPERS FOR 
SIMILAR REASONS.  A SENIOR PROVINCIAL OFFICIAL RESIGNED 
IN MATABELELAND NORTH DUE TO INTERFERENCE WITH MEDICAL 
SERVICES BY WAR VETS.   END NOTE.)  EDDISON ZVOBGO, 
MASVINGO "SUPREMO" AND MP FOR MASVINGO SOUTH, TOLD US 
THAT A NUMBER OF GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS, INCLUDING FINANCE 
MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI, HAVE RECENTLY ASKED HIM HOW THEY 
CAN "GET OUT OF GOVERNMENT." 
 
MORE SETBACKS IN URBAN AREAS 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) ZANU-PF HAS BEEN HIT WITH MORE SETBACKS IN 
RECENT WEEKS WITH THE LOSS OF THE MASVINGO MAYORAL 
ELECTION TO THE MDC (REF B), AND THE FAILURE OF ITS 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5899 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  01672  02 OF 03  221223Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  ACQ-00   CIAE-00  INL-00 
      DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00 
      FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00 
      L-00     VCE-00   MED-07   AC-01    DCP-01   NSAE-00  OIC-02 
      OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00 
      SP-00    STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /017W 
                  ------------------EF35AD  221223Z /38 
P 221207Z MAY 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8934 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 001672 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
USAID FOR AA/AFR VDICKSON-HORTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/11 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ZI
SUBJECT: RECENT EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE UNDERMINE RULING 
PARTY STRENGTH 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01672  02 OF 03  221223Z 
 
"LABOR RESOLUTION" CAMPAIGN TO BOOST SUPPORT IN THE 
CITIES.  THE MAY 12-13 LOSS IN MASVINGO IS NOT ONLY 
ZANU-PF'S FIRST LOSS OF A MAYORSHIP, IT WAS LOST BY A 
TWO-TO-ONE MARGIN -- DESPITE HEAVY CAMPAIGNING AND 
INTIMIDATION BY RULING PARTY SUPPORTERS.  THE WAR 
VETERAN CAMPAIGN TO INTERVENE IN LABOR DISPUTES BETWEEN 
FORMER EMPLOYEES AND BUSINESSES AND NGOS HAS BEEN AN 
UNMITIGATED DISASTER.  JOSEPH CHINOTIMBA AND OTHER WAR 
VETERAN LEADERS WERE BOOED OFF THE STAGE WHEN THEY TRIED 
TO SPEAK ABOUT THEIR CAMPAIGN AT THE ZCTU'S MAY DAY 
RALLY IN HARARE (REF D).  MOST POLITICAL OBSERVERS HERE 
AGREE THAT THE CAMPAIGN, WITH ITS RESULTING BUSINESS 
CLOSURES, HAS HARDENED URBAN PUBLIC OPINION AGAINST 
ZANU-PF.  REALIZING THAT THE WAR VET LABOR CAMPAIGN WAS 
NOT WORKING, AND BENDING TO A GROWING INTERNATIONAL 
OUTCRY, GOVERNMENT BACKED OFF AND ORDERED THE ARREST OF 
TWO PROVINCIAL ZANU-PF OFFICIALS WHO HAD BEEN INVOLVED 
IN DIRECTING THE WAR VETERANS (REF A).  THE ZANU-PF 
DEPUTY CHAIRMAN FOR HARARE, MIKE MOYO, WAS QUICKLY 
RELEASED ON BAIL. 
 
PARTY RESTRUCTURING MORE HURTFUL THAN HELPFUL 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) THE REORGANIZATION OF PROVINCIAL PARTY 
STRUCTURES AND THE REPLACEMENT OF ELECTED PARTY 
EXECUTIVES MAY HURT ZANU-PF MORE THAN HELP IT IN THE 
RUNUP TO THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  PARTY 
COMMISSAR GEZI HAD LED THE CHARGE TO REENERGIZE THE 
PARTY AFTER ITS DEVASTATING LOSSES IN THE JUNE 2000 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  01672  02 OF 03  221223Z 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS.  ACCORDING TO ZVOBGO, GEZI 
"MASSACRED" THE PARTY'S STRUCTURES.  NINE OUT OF TEN 
LEGITIMATELY ELECTED PROVINCIAL EXECUTIVES WERE 
SUMMARILY DISMISSED, AND YOUNGER, MOSTLY INEXPERIENCED 
LEADERS WERE IMPOSED BY HARARE.  ZVOBGO BELIEVES THIS 
WILL BE THE PARTY'S UNDOING IN 2002.  "YOU DON'T 
DEMOLISH 20-YEAR-OLD STRUCTURES AND EXPECT NEW ONES TO 
BE REBUILT OVERNIGHT," ZVOBGO LAMENTED.  THE NEW 
PROVINCIAL LEADERSHIPS "DON'T KNOW WHERE THE PARTY'S 
BEEN OR WHERE IT'S GOING," WHICH IS A SIGN OF THE 
GENERAL DECAY OF THE ZANU-PF MACHINE, THE MASVINGO MP 
ADDED. 
 
¶6.  (C) WEBSTER SHAMU, ZANU-PF MP FOR CHEGUTU AND OUSTED 
MASHONALAND WEST PARTY CHAIRMAN, SANG ZVOBGO'S REFRAIN. 
WITH THE PARTY RESTRUCTURING EXERCISE, ZANU-PF WAS 
MOVING AWAY FROM DEMOCRATIC STRUCTURES TO MORE 
DICTATORIAL ONES, SHAMU COMPLAINED.  THE PARTY 
LEADERSHIP WAS BYPASSING ITS OWN PROCEDURES TO PUT IN 
MORE LOYAL EXECUTIVES.  THE MAY 14 "DAILY NEWS" 
DESCRIBED THE ELECTION OF CHINHOYI MP PHILLIP CHIYANGWA 
AS ZANU-PF'S MASHONALAND WEST CHAIRMAN AS A DIVISIVE AND 
CONTENTIOUS AFFAIR.  THE ELECTION BY PARTY CADRES HAD TO 
BE POSTPONED AFTER WAR VETERANS DISRUPTED THE MEETING TO 
PROTEST CHIYANGWA'S CANDIDACY.  THE WAR VETERANS 
REPORTEDLY COMPLAINED THAT CHIYANGWA WAS "TRYING TO 
LEAPFROG TO A SENIOR POSITION IN THE PARTY."  (COMMENT: 
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A SENIOR PARTY OFFICIAL OPPOSED 
TO CHIYANGWA SENT THE WAR VETERANS TO THE CHINHOYI 
MEETING IN AN ATTEMPT TO DERAIL THE MP'S CANDIDACY.  END 
COMMENT.)  THE ARTICLE ALSO QUOTED A FORMER ZANU-PF MP 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  01672  02 OF 03  221223Z 
AS SAYING AT THE MEETING "THESE YOUNG PEOPLE WITH MONEY 
[CHIYANGWA] ARE KILLING THE PARTY."  SHAVA TOLD POLOFF 
THAT CHIYANGWA HAS A BIG TASK AHEAD OF HIM, BUT BELIEVES 
HE WILL FULFILL HIS DUTIES "WITH ZEAL."  THE MAY 22 
EDITION OF THE GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED "THE HERALD" 
REPORTED THAT, WITH PARTY ELECTIONS IN BULAWAYO AND 
MATABELELAND NORTH ON MAY 19-20, THE RESTRUCTURING 
EXERCISE IS COMPLETE. 
 
DOUBTS ABOUT MUGABE CANDIDACY RESURFACE 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (U) ZANU-PF'S RECENT SETBACKS APPEAR TO HAVE 
REIGNITED THE OLD DEBATE IN THE PARTY ON WHETHER MUGABE 
SHOULD BE ITS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE NEXT YEAR.  THE MAY 
18-23 "ZIMBABWE INDEPENDENT" REPORTED THAT ZANU-PF 
NATIONAL CHAIRMAN JOHN NKOMO STATED THAT MUGABE HAD NOT 
YET BEEN NOMINATED AS THE PARTY'S CANDIDATE FOR 
PRESIDENT.  A FLURRY OF DENIALS SOON CASCADED OUT OF 
MUGABE'S INNER CIRCLE, FIRST BY PARTY INFORMATION 
SECRETARY NATHAN SHAMUYARIRA, THEN BY INFORMATION 
 
SIPDIS 
MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO, SAYING THAT MUGABE WAS ALREADY 
THE PARTY'S CANDIDATE AND THERE WOULD BE NO FURTHER 
DISCUSSION OF THE MATTER.  NKOMO IS CONSIDERED THE 
ARCHRIVAL OF SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5900 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  01672  03 OF 03  221223Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  ACQ-00   CIAE-00  INL-00 
      DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00 
      FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00 
      L-00     VCE-00   MED-07   AC-01    DCP-01   NSAE-00  OIC-02 
      OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00 
      SP-00    STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /017W 
                  ------------------EF35C2  221223Z /38 
P 221207Z MAY 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8935 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 001672 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
USAID FOR AA/AFR VDICKSON-HORTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/11 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ZI
SUBJECT: RECENT EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE UNDERMINE RULING 
PARTY STRENGTH 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01672  03 OF 03  221223Z 
 
WHO IS OFTEN SEEN AS PRESIDENT MUGABE'S CHOSEN 
SUCCESSOR. 
 
¶8.  (C) ZVOBGO TOLD US THAT THE ONLY WAY TO GET MUGABE 
TO STEP DOWN BEFORE THE ELECTION WOULD BE FOR A SERIES 
OF "RESPECTABLE" AND INFLUENTIAL PEOPLE IN THE PARTY TO 
BEGIN SPEAKING OUT AGAINST MUGABE'S CANDIDACY.  ZVOBGO 
OPINED THAT THE FIRST PERSON TO CASTIGATE MUGABE WOULD 
FACE A STRONG REBUKE, BUT ONCE A SECOND AND THIRD PERSON 
JOINED THE CHORUS, IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR MUGABE TO 
DROWN OUT THE RESULTING NOISE, AND HE WOULD BE FORCED TO 
RELINQUISH HIS CANDIDACY FOR PRESIDENT.  ZVOBGO HINTED 
THAT HE WOULD BE ONE OF THE FIRST PEOPLE TO SPEAK OUT 
AGAINST MUGABE.  THE WILY MP EMPHASIZED HOWEVER, THAT 
THE CRITICISM COULD NOT BEGIN TOO EARLY BEFORE THE 
ELECTION LEST MUGABE HAVE TIME TO DEVISE COUNTERMEASURES 
THAT WOULD QUASH ANY PARTY REVOLT.  BRIAN RAFTOPOULOS 
THEORIZED THAT AFTER MUGABE WON RE-ELECTION AND 
LEGITIMIZED HIS WIN WITH BLESSINGS FROM SADC LEADERS, HE 
WOULD FEEL COMFORTABLE STEPPING DOWN WITH THE KNOWLEDGE 
THAT LAND REDISTRIBUTION WOULD CONTINUE AND THE MDC WAS 
DESTROYED.  ZVOBGO DISMISSED THIS THEORY, SAYING WHOEVER 
BELIEVES IT DOES NOT KNOW MUGABE AS WELL AS HE DOES. 
ZVOBGO THINKS MUGABE INTENDS TO COMPLETE HIS NEXT TERM. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9.  (C) THERE ARE NEW SIGNS OF INTERNAL DISSATISFACTION 
IN ZANU-PF AND THE GOZ.  SENIOR CIVIL SERVANTS ARE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  01672  03 OF 03  221223Z 
LEAVING AGAINST A BACKDROP OF A PURGE OF PARTY 
STRUCTURES THAT HAS LEFT A LOT OF BRUISED PEOPLE BEHIND. 
ALTHOUGH OUR CONTACTS DOWNPLAYED NKOSANA MOYO'S 
RESIGNATION, IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SET OFF A CHAIN 
REACTION OF OTHER HIGH-PROFILE RESIGNATIONS IN 
GOVERNMENT OR CABINET.  ONE OR TWO MORE WOULD FURTHER 
DAMPEN MORALE IN ZANU-PF AS A WHOLE, AND INCREASE THE 
LEVEL OF PARANOIA AMONG THE TOP LEADERSHIP.  MORE 
MINISTERS WOULD COME UNDER SUSPICION OF DISLOYALTY, AND 
MORE, SUCH AS FORMER LANDS AND AGRICULTURE MINISTER 
KUMBIRAI KANGAI, COULD FIND THEMSELVES ON THE WRONG END 
OF A CORRUPTION INVESTIGATION.  WAR VETERANS HAVE 
ACCUSED REGISTRAR-GENERAL TOBAIWA MUDEDE, A PARTY 
LOYALIST AND STALWART, OF RIGGING THE MASVINGO MAYORAL 
ELECTION.  THE LOSS OF THE BULAWAYO MAYORAL ELECTION -- 
SCHEDULED FOR JUNE -- AND ADDITIONAL RECRIMINATIONS FROM 
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY -- PARTICULARLY THE EU, IF 
IT DECIDES TO IMPOSE SANCTIONS NEXT MONTH -- WOULD WEIGH 
HEAVILY ON ZANU-PF LEADERS, ESPECIALLY MUGABE. 
UNFORTUNATELY, THE LIKELY REACTION FROM ZANU-PF WILL BE 
TO CIRCLE THE WAGONS AND RETURN TO THE TRIED AND TRUE 
TACTICS OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION AGAINST RURAL 
RESIDENTS.  END COMMENT. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
>

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