This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

021546Z May 01


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3229

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                  ------------------E675BC  021540Z /38    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8775
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001495 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 05/02/11 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINS ZI
SUBJECT: MDC CAMPAIGNING ACTIVELY BUT QUIETLY FOR PRESIDENCY, BUT 
UNSURE HOW IT WOULD REACT TO MUGABE VICTORY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01495  01 OF 03  021539Z 
 
REF:  A) HARARE 1247   B) HARARE 930 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING.  REASONS: 1.5 
(B) AND (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) HAS 
STRENGTHENED ITS INTERNAL STRUCTURES AND PUT IN PLACE A RIGOROUS 
POLICY-VETTING PROCESS.  THE LACK OF ADEQUATE RESOURCES, HOWEVER, 
CONTINUES TO POSE A PROBLEM, EXACERBATED BY THE GOVERNMENT'S 
REFUSAL TO GIVE THE MDC FUNDS TO WHICH IT IS LEGALLY ENTITLED AND 
BY THE PASSAGE OF LEGISLATION PROHIBITING POLITICAL PARTIES FROM 
RECEIVING FOREIGN FUNDING.  THE MDC WILL TRY TO PLAY ABOVEBOARD AS 
MUCH AS POSSIBLE BUT LIKELY WILL HAVE TO ENGAGE IN A BIT OF 
"CREATIVE FINANCING."  IN AN EFFORT TO AVOID PROVOKING ZANU-PF, THE 
MDC IS CAMPAIGNING FOR THE 2002 PRESIDENCY ACTIVELY BUT QUIETLY. 
IT IS HOLDING FEWER LARGE RALLIES AND IS SENDING SMALL TEAMS TO 
RURAL AREAS AROUND THE COUNTRY TO CAMPAIGN DOOR-TO-DOOR.  THE 
OPPOSITION PARTY HAS NOT AGREED HOW TO REACT IN THE EVENT THAT 
PRESIDENT MUGABE WINS AN ILLEGITIMATE ELECTION, AN INCREASINGLY 
LIKELY SCENARIO.  END SUMMARY. 
 
STRUCTURAL CHANGES 
------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS, THE MDC HAS TAKEN STEPS TO 
STRENGTHEN ITS ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURES.  ISAAC MAPOSA, WHO LAST 
YEAR LED THE NATIONAL CONSTITUTIONAL ASSEMBLY'S OPPOSITION TO THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  01495  01 OF 03  021539Z 
GOVERNMENT'S DRAFT CONSTITUTION, JOINED THE MDC IN EARLY MARCH AS 
ITS NATIONAL COORDINATOR.  MAPOSA TOLD POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF ON 
APRIL 25 THAT, WHEN HE BEGAN WORK, HE WAS SURPRISED BY THE NUMBER 
OF EMPLOYEES IN THE MDC'S OFFICES WITHOUT CLEAR RESPONSIBILITIES. 
HE FIRED A NUMBER OF PEOPLE AND HAS CONCENTRATED ON DEVELOPING 
POSITION DESCRIPTIONS FOR THOSE WHO REMAIN.  IN ADDITION, HE HAS 
WORKED TO ENSURE ACCOUNTABILITY AMONG THE OPPOSITION PARTY'S TEN 
DEPARTMENTS, BY HELPING DEPARTMENT HEADS DEVELOP REALISTIC WORK 
PLANS AND REQUIRING REGULAR ACTIVITY REPORTS.  IN ADDITION, MAPOSA 
EMPHASIZED THAT HE DOES NOT SET THE MDC'S POLICY AGENDA.  RATHER, 
HE SEES HIMSELF MORE AS A FACILITATOR, WHOSE ROLE IS TO BRING 
TOGETHER THE PARTY LEADERSHIP WHEN IMPORTANT ISSUES MUST BE 
DISCUSSED AND THEN IMPLEMENTS THEIR DECISIONS. 
 
POLICY DEVELOPMENT 
------------------ 
 
¶3.  (C) ACCORDING TO MAPOSA, THE MDC HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE 
REGULAR RETREATS TO DEVELOP THE PARTY'S POLICY POSITIONS.  IN 
JANUARY, THE PARTY'S EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE, MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT, 
AND PROVINCIAL LEADERS HELD A RETREAT TO DISCUSS LAND AND THE 
ECONOMY AND, IN MARCH, HELD ONE ON HEALTH AND EDUCATION.  ON MAY 5, 
THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE PLANS TO MEET TO ENDORSE THE POSITIONS 
DEVELOPED AND AGREE ON AN APPROACH FOR PUBLIC DISSEMINATION.  A 
MID-MAY RETREAT HAS BEEN ORGANIZED TO DEFINE THE PARTY'S IDEOLOGY, 
PARTICULARLY WHAT IT MEANS TO BE SOCIAL DEMOCRATS IN THE ZIMBABWEAN 
CONTEXT.  AGREEMENT ON IDEOLOGY AND THE DETAILS, MAPOSA NOTED, WILL 
HELP ENSURE DEVELOPMENT OF CONSISTENT POLICIES AND A CONSISTENT 
MESSAGE.  THE MID-MAY MEETING WILL ALSO FOCUS ON CRAFTING AN 
EFFECTIVE DIPLOMATIC APPROACH TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  01495  01 OF 03  021539Z 
MEDIA STRATEGY 
-------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) THE MDC HAS IN RECENT WEEKS MADE NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENTS IN 
USING THE PRESS TO GET OUT ITS MESSAGE, DUE IN LARGE MEASURE TO 
INTENSIVE TRAINING -- PROVIDED BY THE INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN 
INSTITUTE (IRI) IN EARLY APRIL IN BOTSWANA -- ON MESSAGE 
DEVELOPMENT AND PUBLIC SPEAKING.  THE RECENT HIRING OF A MEDIA 
RELATIONS PROFESSIONAL HAS ALSO HAD AN OBVIOUS POSITIVE IMPACT. 
MAPOSA AGREED THAT THE PARTY'S MEDIA PERSON IS GOOD, BUT HE IS THE 
ONLY OFFICER IN A DEPARTMENT THAT NEEDS AT LEAST FOUR PEOPLE TO BE 
MOST EFFECTIVE.  MAPOSA INDICATED THAT THE PARTY PLANS TO USE THE 
PRESS EVEN MORE, AND HAS BEGUN TO ORGANIZE PUBLIC EVENTS AROUND THE 
MEDIA ATTENTION THEY ARE LIKELY TO GENERATE.  (COMMENT: MDC 
PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI'S RECENT VISIT TO THE MASS GRAVES OF 
VICTIMS OF THE GOVERNMENT'S 1980'S BRUTAL CAMPAIGN AGAINST 
DISSIDENTS IS A CASE IN POINT.  THE VISIT DEMONSTRATED LEADERSHIP 
ON A PAINFUL, UNRESOLVED ISSUE ABOUT WHICH GOVERNMENT REMAINS 
EXTREMELY SENSITIVE, GENERATED SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE PRESS COVERAGE 
AND HELPED CONSOLIDATE TSVANGIRAI'S ALREADY STRONG SUPPORT IN 
MATABELELAND.  END COMMENT.) 
 
FINANCING 
--------- 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3230 
 
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INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00  DINT-00 
      DODE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   OIGO-00  FBIE-00 
      VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    L-00     VCE-00 
      AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00 
      PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    IRM-00   STR-00   TRSE-00 
      USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00 
      SAS-00   SWCI-00    /009W 
                  ------------------E675C9  021540Z /38 
P 021546Z MAY 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8776 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 001495 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 05/02/11 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINS ZI
SUBJECT: MDC CAMPAIGNING ACTIVELY BUT QUIETLY FOR PRESIDENCY, BUT 
UNSURE HOW IT WOULD REACT TO MUGABE VICTORY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01495  02 OF 03  021540Z 
 
¶5.  (C) SECURING ADEQUATE RESOURCES CONTINUES TO POSE A SERIOUS 
OBSTACLE FOR THE MDC, A TASK MADE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT BY 
PARLIAMENT'S RECENT PASSAGE OF LEGISLATION PROHIBITING DIRECT AND 
INDIRECT FOREIGN FUNDING OF POLITICAL PARTIES (REF A).  IN 
ADDITION, THE GOVERNMENT HAS NOT YET FULFILLED ITS COMMITMENT -- 
MADE IN LATE FEBRUARY -- TO RELEASE TO THE MDC WITHIN 30 DAYS 47 
MILLION ZIMBABWEAN DOLLARS (NOW APPROXIMATELY U.S. $470,000) TO 
WHICH IT IS LEGALLY ENTITLED, BY VIRTUE OF ITS STRONG SHOWING IN 
THE JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION.  INTER ALIA, THE NEW 
POLITICAL PARTIES FINANCING LAW PRECLUDES THE PROVISION OF SERVICES 
FOR PARTY-BUILDING ACTIVITIES, SUCH AS IRI'S RECENT WORKSHOP IN 
BOTSWANA DESCRIBED IN PARA 5.  NGOS AND DONORS ARE UNSURE ABOUT THE 
IMPACT OF THE NEW LEGISLATION ON MANY OF THEIR ACTIVITIES.  IRI 
REGIONAL DIRECTOR KATHI WALTHER TOLD POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF ON 
APRIL 30 THAT HER ORGANIZATION WOULD CONTINUE TO OFFER SIMILAR 
TRAINING, BUT LIKELY WOULD HAVE TO PROVIDE IT OUTSIDE OF ZIMBABWE. 
SOME DONORS HAVE MADE HURRIED CAPITAL INVESTMENTS OR DEPOSITED 
MONEY IN FOREIGN BANK ACCOUNTS IN ANTICIPATION OF THE PRESIDENT'S 
SIGNATURE OF THE BILL, WHICH IS SILENT ON THE QUESTION OF PENALTIES 
FOR DONORS. 
 
¶6.  (C) MDC MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT DAVID COLTART TOLD POLITICAL 
SECTION CHIEF RECENTLY THAT THE LAW WAS INTENDED TO CRUSH THE 
OPPOSITION PARTY, AND MIGHT HAVE THE EFFECT OF DRIVING THE MDC 
UNDERGROUND.  IN THE MEANTIME, THE MDC WOULD SEEK TO SIGN 
COMMERCIAL LOAN AGREEMENTS -- WHICH ARE NOT PROHIBITED -- WITH 
DONOR NATIONS AND INDIVIDUALS.  COLTART INDICATED THAT THE PARTY 
PLANNED TO CHALLENGE THE CONSTITUTIONALITY OF THE BILL, BECAUSE IT 
VIOLATES THE RIGHT TO FREEDOM OF ASSOCIATION AND PREVENTS 
ZIMBABWEAN CITIZENS LIVING ABROAD FROM CONTRIBUTING TO POLITICAL 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  01495  02 OF 03  021540Z 
PARTIES.  ISAAC MAPOSA EMPHASIZED THAT THE MDC WOULD TRY TO PLAY 
ABOVEBOARD AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE, BUT HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE PARTY 
INEVITABLY WOULD HAVE TO ENGAGE IN "CREATIVE FINANCING."  ONE 
OPTION THE MDC WAS EXPLORING WAS TO ASK FOREIGN DONORS TO DEPOSIT 
FUNDS IN OVERSEAS ACCOUNTS BELONGING TO LOCAL ZIMBABWEAN COMPANIES, 
WHICH COULD IN TURN MAKE OSTENSIBLY "LOCAL" CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE 
OPPOSITION PARTY.  IN ADDITION, JOHN MAKUMBE, A POLITICAL SCIENCE 
PROFESSOR AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE, PRESIDENT OF TRANSPARENCY 
INTERNATIONAL-ZIMBABWE, AND REGULAR ADVISOR TO THE MDC LEADERSHIP, 
IS PRESSING THE OPPOSITION PARTY TO ESTABLISH ITS OWN OFFSHORE BANK 
ACCOUNTS IN ORDER TO FACILITATE FOREIGN DONATIONS. 
 
PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN STRATEGY 
------------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (C) THE CAMPAIGN FOR THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL VOTE HAS BEGUN IN 
EARNEST.  ZANU-PF, THROUGH ITS GANGSTER MILITIA OF WAR VETERANS AND 
THUGS FOR HIRE, HAS CONTINUED ITS INTIMIDATION OF RESIDENTS IN 
RURAL AREAS AND HIGH-DENSITY SUBURBS, AND RECENTLY EXPANDED ITS 
TERROR CAMPAIGN TO URBAN AREAS, WHERE IT IS TARGETTING COMPANIES 
AND NGOS SUSPECTING OF SUPPORTING THE OPPOSITION.  THE MDC IS 
CAMPAIGNING ACTIVELY AS WELL, BUT HAS OPTED FOR A LOW-KEY, NON- 
CONFRONTATIONAL APPROACH.  MAKUMBE POINTED OUT THAT THE MDC IS 
STRONGER THAN IT WAS A YEAR AGO, BUT IT REMAINS FRAGILE BECAUSE IT 
IS THE ONLY HOPE FOR MOST ZIMBABWEANS OF A BETTER LIFE.  IF THE 
PARTY PUSHES TOO HARD FOR CHANGE, THE GOVERNMENT WOULD SIMPLY SHUT 
IT DOWN AND PROHIBIT ANY FURTHER OPPOSITION POLITICAL ACTIVITY. 
THAT IS PRECISELY WHY, ACCORDING TO MAPOSA, THE MDC IS ORGANIZING 
FEWER LARGE RALLIES -- WHICH WOULD ATTRACT ZANU-PF'S ATTENTION AND 
INVITE CONFRONTATION.  INSTEAD, THE MDC IS SENDING SMALL TEAMS 
THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY TO CAMPAIGN DOOR-TO-DOOR.  THE TEAMS ARE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  01495  02 OF 03  021540Z 
ADVISING PEOPLE TO DO EVERYTHING NECESSARY TO PROTECT THEMSELVES -- 
BY AVOIDING CONFRONTATION WITH THE RULING PARTY AND TO ATTEND ZANU- 
PF RALLIES AND WEAR ZANU-PF T-SHIRTS IF THEY MUST.  THE MDC IS 
EXPENDING SIGNIFICANT EFFORT -- PARTICULARLY IN RURAL AREAS -- TO 
CONVINCE VOTERS THAT THEIR BALLOT IS SECRET, DESPITE ZANU-PF'S 
CLAIMS TO THE CONTRARY.  THE OPPOSITION PARTY ALSO HAS BEGUN TO 
DISTRIBUTE PAMPHLETS IN RURAL AREAS LAYING OUT ITS POSITIONS ON KEY 
ISSUES. 
 
¶8.  (C) THE MDC LEADERSHIP HAS NOT AGREED HOW IT WOULD RESPOND IN 
THE EVENT PRESIDENT MUGABE WINS A FRAUDULENT ELECTION, AN OUTCOME 
MANY OBSERVERS CONSIDER INCREASINGLY LIKELY.  ASKED HOW THE PARTY 
WOULD REACT IF MUGABE STEALS THE ELECTION, MAPOSA SEEMED TAKEN 
ABACK AND DEFENSIVE.  AFTER A LONG PAUSE, HE ACKNOWLEDGED WEAKLY 
ONLY THAT THERE HAD BEEN SOME INTERNAL DISCUSSION OF THE ISSUE.  HE 
SAID THE PARTY HAS BEEN WORKING WITH KEY REGIONAL PLAYERS -- SOUTH 
AFRICA AND BOTSWANA, IN PARTICULAR -- TO PRESS MUGABE ON THE 
IMPORTANCE OF ENSURING THAT THE ELECTION IS "AS FREE AND FAIR AS IT 
CAN BE."  MAPOSA ALSO EXPRESSED HOPE THAT THE UN MIGHT PROVIDE OR 
COORDINATE THE PROVISION OF ELECTION MONITORS, AND INDICATED THAT 
TSVANGIRAI MAY SEEK A MEETING WITH KOFI ANNAN TO DISCUSS THE ISSUE 
 
SIPDIS 
IN AN UPCOMING VISIT TO THE UNITED STATES. 
 
¶9.  (C) MAKUMBE AGREED THAT AN ILLEGITIMATE MUGABE VICTORY IS THE 
LIKELIEST SCENARIO IN 2002.  THE MDC'S INCLINATION IN SUCH AN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3231 
 
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INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00  DINT-00 
      DODE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   OIGO-00  FBIE-00 
      VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    L-00     VCE-00 
      AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00 
      PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    IRM-00   STR-00   TRSE-00 
      USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00 
      SAS-00   SWCI-00    /009W 
                  ------------------E675CB  021540Z /38 
P 021546Z MAY 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8777 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 001495 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 05/02/11 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINS ZI
SUBJECT: MDC CAMPAIGNING ACTIVELY BUT QUIETLY FOR PRESIDENCY, BUT 
UNSURE HOW IT WOULD REACT TO MUGABE VICTORY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01495  03 OF 03  021540Z 
 
EVENT, HE SAID, WAS TO "SCREAM TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY," AN 
APPROACH THAT WOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY PRODUCTIVE.  MAKUMBE HAS 
INSTEAD URGED TSVANGIRAI AND OTHERS IN THE PARTY TO BE PREPARED TO 
WORK WITH CIVIL SOCIETY IN ORGANIZING MASS ACTION TO PROTEST THE 
OUTCOME.  MOST ZIMBABWEANS, MAKUMBE PREDICTED, WOULD BE VERY ANGRY 
IN THE EVENT OF A MUGABE VICTORY, AND THE MDC MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO 
PREVENT THE OUTBREAK OF BLOODY CONFRONTATIONS AROUND THE COUNTRY. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶10. (C) THE INTERNAL RESTRUCTURING AND BETTER USE OF THE MEDIA HAVE 
MADE THE MDC A STRONGER, MORE EFFECTIVE ORGANIZATION.  IN ADDITION, 
THE MDC REMAINS OVERWHELMINGLY POPULAR IN URBAN AREAS AND APPEARS 
TO BE MAKING INROADS IN SOME RURAL DISTRICTS, JUDGING FROM THE 
INCREASE IN ATTENDANCE AT MANY OF THE PARTY'S RALLIES.  THE 
LEADERSHIP OF THE OPPOSITION PARTY, HOWEVER, IS MAKING A BIG 
MISTAKE IN ASSUMING THAT THAT POPULARITY WILL TRANSLATE INTO 
ELECTORAL TRIUMPH IN 2002.  MORGAN TSVANGIRAI WOULD ALMOST 
CERTAINLY WIN AN ELECTION THAT IS CLOSE TO FREE AND FAIR, BUT 
PRESIDENT MUGABE HAS STATED EXPLICITLY ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS -- MOST 
RECENTLY IN PUBLIC REMARKS ON ZIMBABWE'S INDEPENDENCE DAY ON APRIL 
18 -- THAT HE WILL NEVER ALLOW THE MDC TO ASSUME POWER.   IT IS 
TIME FOR THE MDC TO TAKE MUGABE AT HIS WORD, AND TO BEGIN TO DO 
SOME SERIOUS CONTINGENCY PLANNING ABOUT WHAT STEPS IT WILL TAKE IF 
THE PRESIDENT STEALS THE ELECTION. 
 
IRVING 
 
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