This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.


2001HANOI00965 - CONFIDENTIAL
 
 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ7670

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INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CEA-01   CIAE-00  SMEC-00  
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      EXIM-01  E-00     FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    FRB-00   H-01     
      TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    ITC-01   L-00     VCE-00   MOFM-04  
      MOF-03   AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    
      PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    IRM-00   SSO-00   
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      SAS-00     /018W
                  ------------------E2A786  231115Z /38    
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2638
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
ASEAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
DEPTTREAS WASHDC PRIORITY
JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI//J5/FPA// PRIORITY
DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 HANOI 000965 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR S/S-O, EAP, EAP/BCLTV, DRL, INR 
STATE ALSO FOR EB/ODF, EB/OMA, EB/OIA 
STATE ALSO PASS USTR 
NSC FOR EAST ASIAN DIRECTORATE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HANOI  00965  01 OF 05  231115Z 
SECDEF FOR ISA/EAP STERN 
TREASURY FOR OASIA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/23/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON PINR VM DPOL
SUBJECT: NEW VIETNAMESE LEADERSHIP HEADED BY MANH BODES WELL FOR ECONOMIC REFORM 
 
REF: A) HANOI 952     B) HANOI 919     C) HANOI 890 
 
¶1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL COUNSELOR JAMES BRUNO; 
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
¶2. (C) SUMMARY: AS PART OF A MAJOR GENERATIONAL CHANGE IN 
SENIOR COMMUNIST PARTY RANKS, MODERATE NONG DUC MANH WAS 
OFFICIALLY INSTALLED AS VIETNAM'S SENIOR LEADER APRIL 23 AT 
THE CLOSE OF THE NINTH PARTY CONGRESS.  AS EXPECTED, 
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY CHIEF MANH REPLACED THE STRONGLY 
IDEOLOGICAL LE KHA PHIEU.  ONLY THE SIXTH COMMUNIST PARTY 
LEADER IN SIX DECADES, MANH IS THE FIRST WITHOUT 
REVOLUTIONARY OR WARTIME WORK EXPERIENCE, THE FIRST WITH A 
UNIVERSITY DEGREE, AND THE FIRST ETHNIC MINORITY.  COUPLED 
WITH THE ABOLITION OF ALL PARTY SENIOR ADVISOR POSITIONS, 
THE RETIREMENT OF AGING CONSERVATIVES IN THE POLITBURO, A 
DRASTICALLY REDUCED LEADERSHIP PROFILE FOR THE MILITARY, 
AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A STREAMLINED SECRETARIAT TO 
PROMOTE EFFICIENCY, MANH'S ELEVATION MAY WELL PROVIDE A 
MUCH-NEEDED BOOST FOR THE ECONOMIC REFORM AGENDA. 
 
¶3. (C) SUMMARY (CONT'D): PRIME MINISTER KHAI IS NOW JOINED 
IN THE TOP RANKS BY FELLOW SOUTHERN REFORMERS TRIET AND 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  00965  01 OF 05  231115Z 
DUNG, WHO WERE PROMOTED TO FOURTH AND FIFTH IN THE 
LEADERSHIP, SIGNALING THEY ARE HIS HEIRS IN WAITING. 
ANOTHER POSITIVE SIGNAL IS THAT REFORMIST TRADE MINISTER VU 
KHOAN, REPORTEDLY TO BE ELECTED A DEPUTY PM NEXT MONTH, 
WILL ACT AS VIRTUAL "POLITBURO CHIEF OF STAFF" WORKING ON 
THE NEW SECRETARIAT.  THOUGH CONSERVATIVE INTERESTS STILL 
ARE REPRESENTED IN THE LEADERSHIP, THEIR PROFILE IS MUCH 
LOWER.  ELECTION OF THIS LEADERSHIP WAS A MAJOR VICTORY FOR 
REFORMERS IN THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
MANH'S ASCENSION PART OF A DRAMATIC GENERATIONAL CHANGE 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶4. (C) THE SELECTION OF NATIONAL ASSEMBLY CHAIRMAN NONG DUC 
MANH, 60, AS THE SIXTH GENERAL SECRETARY OF THE COMMUNIST 
PARTY OF VIETNAM (CPV) IS AN IMPORTANT GENERATIONAL 
MILESTONE FOR THE PARTY AND COUNTRY.  FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 
VIETNAM'S POST-COLONIAL HISTORY, THE SENIOR LEADER WILL NOT 
BE A MILITARY OR CIVILIAN "VETERAN" OF THE COUNTRY'S 
"NATIONAL LIBERATION" WARS.  (TRUONG CHINH, LE DUAN, NGUYEN 
VAN LINH, AND DO MUOI ALL WERE OF THE REVOLUTIONARY 
GENERATION THAT HAD LED THE FIGHT AGAINST THE FRENCH AND 
AGAINST THE U.S.-BACKED REPUBLIC OF VIETNAM GOVERNMENT.  LE 
KHA PHIEU, 69, WHO RETIRED YESTERDAY, WAS A LONG-TIME 
MILITARY POLITICAL COMMISSAR WHO PLAYED A PROMINENT ROLE IN 
VIETNAMESE OCCUPATION OF CAMBODIA, AS WELL AS SERVICE IN 
THE "NATIONAL INDEPENDENCE" STRUGGLE.  PHIEU, WHO CAME IN 
UNDER UNPRECEDENTED PROCEDURES IN 1997, PROVED TO A 
TRANSITORY FIGURE AND WAS THE ONLY GENERAL SECRETARY TO 
FACE THE IGNOMINY OF NOT FINISHING A FULL TERM IN OFFICE.) 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HANOI  00965  01 OF 05  231115Z 
 
¶5. (C) MANH, OFFICIALLY INSTALLED APRIL 23 IN A "UNANIMOUS 
VOTE" BY THE 1,168 VOTING DELEGATES AT THE NINTH PARTY 
CONGRESS, WAS IN FACT SELECTED DURING THE PRE-CONGRESS 
MEETING OF THE CPV LEADERSHIP APRIL 16-17.  ACCORDING TO 
SEVERAL SOURCES, MANH POLLED A MAJORITY OF VOTES (FROM 55- 
60 PERCENT) BOTH IN THE PRE-CONGRESS AND THE FINAL CENTRAL 
COMMITTEE PLENUM, WHICH PRECEDED IT, THOUGH HE ONLY AGREED 
TO TAKE THE POST ON CONDITION THAT THE CPV'S THREE "SENIOR 
ADVISORS" WOULD STEP DOWN FROM THEIR POSTS.  (IRONICALLY 
THIS WAS A KEY OBJECTIVE OF PHIEU'S, AND SEVERAL SOURCES 
SUGGEST THIS WAS ONE OF THE FACTORS THAT LED TO THE 
ADVISORS' PRESSING FOR HIS OUSTER.)  NGUYEN VAN AN, CPV 
ORGANIZATIONAL DIRECTOR, WAS THE OTHER POLITBURO MEMBER TO 
RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT AT THE ELEVENTH HOUR, THOUGH 
MANH'S BROAD POPULARITY AMONG CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBERS, 
BUILT UP OVER HIS NINE YEARS OF SERVICE AS NATIONAL 
ASSEMBLY CHAIR, APPEARS TO HAVE CARRIED HIM TO VICTORY. 
(REF A DOCUMENTS HOW MANH'S NATIONAL ASSEMBLY WORK, FOR 
WHICH HE HAS BEEN MUCH PRAISED BY HIS COLLEAGUES, SERVED TO 
BUILD A BROAD CONSTITUENCY OF SUPPORT FOR HIM.) 
 
¶6. (C) THE GENERATIONAL CHANGE TO MANH IS STRIKING IN 
SEVERAL WAYS.  NOT ONLY IS HE NINE YEARS YOUNGER THAN 
PHIEU, MANH IS A FULL GENERATION YOUNGER THAN DO MUOI, WHO 
ONLY 3-1/2 YEARS AGO WAS GENERAL SECRETARY.  THE CHANGE IN 
PERSPECTIVE CAN BE ILLUSTRATED BY THE FORMATIVE EVENTS OF 
THEIR PROFESSIONAL LIVES: IN 1975 DO MUOI WAS IN HIS MID- 
50'S AND HAD DEVOTED THREE DECADES TO THE "NATIONAL 
LIBERATION STRUGGLE."  PHIEU WAS A 43-YEAR-OLD POLITICAL 
COMMISSAR IN THE MILITARY.  BY CONTRAST, MANH WAS ONLY 34 
IN 1975, HAVING COMPLETED A DEGREE IN FORESTRY AND STUDIES 
IN LENINGRAD, AND WAS WORKING AS A FORESTRY OFFICIAL IN HIS 
NATIVE BAC THAI PROVINCE IN NORTHERN VIETNAM.  MANH HAD 
BEEN A CPV MEMBER SINCE 1963, THOUGH HIS WORK DURING THE 
WAR YEARS WAS PRIMARILY TECHNOCRATIC. 
 
¶7. (C) FOLLOWING HIS WORK IN FORESTRY, MANH MOVED ON TO TWO 
YEARS OF CPV POLITICAL TRAINING AT NGUYEN AI QUOC 
INSTITUTE, FOLLOWING BY A DECADE OF WORK IN PROVINCIAL CPV 
AFFAIRS.  HE WORKED AS VICE CHAIRMAN AND THEN CHAIRMAN OF 
THE BAC THAI PEOPLE'S COMMITTEE, THEN SERVED AS PROVINCIAL 
PARTY SECRETARY THERE.  HE BEGAN A CANDIDATE MEMBER TO THE 
CENTRAL COMMITTEE IN 1986 (AT THE "DOI MOI" SIXTH CONGRESS) 
AND BECAME A FULL MEMBER IN 1989, WHEN HE WAS NAMED CHAIR 
OF THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE'S NATIONALITIES COMMISSION.  (MANH 
IS A MEMBER OF THE TAY ETHNIC MINORITY, THE COUNTRY'S MOST 
POPULOUS MINORITY, AND ONE OF THE GROUPS MOST INTEGRATED 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  00965  02 OF 05  231115Z 
INTO ETHNIC KINH VIETNAMESE SOCIETY.)  IN 1991 HE JOINED 
THE POLITBURO AND WAS NAMED CHAIR OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
THE NEXT YEAR.  IN THE PAST NINE YEARS HE HAS PRESIDED OVER 
THE GRADUAL EXPANSION OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY INTO A MORE 
GENUINELY DELIBERATIVE BODY THAT HAS INCREASED ITS ROLE IN 
DEBATING SOCIO-ECONOMIC ISSUES AND QUESTIONING MINISTERS. 
(SEE REF A FOR FURTHER ON HIS ACTIVITIES AS ASSEMBLY 
CHAIR.) 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
RETIREMENT OF ADVISORS, POLITBURO SEPTUAGENARIANS 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶8. (C) IF THE ONLY CHANGE COMING OF THE CONGRESS WAS THE 
REPLACEMENT OF THE HIGHLY IDEOLOGICAL PHIEU WITH THE MORE 
MODERATE MANH, THIS WOULD BE AN IMPORTANT SHIFT, THOUGH 
HARDLY AN EPOCHAL ONE.  MANH GETS HIGH MARKS FROM HIS 
COLLEAGUES FOR BEING MORE PRAGMATIC, FOR BEING A GOOD 
LISTENER, FOR BEING LESS BOUND BY IDEOLOGY, BUT AT THE END 
OF THE DAY, HE IS A COMMITTED COMMUNIST, AND ONE WHO 
APPEARS NOT TO COUNTENANCE ANY RIVALS TO THE CPV'S ETERNAL 
MONOPOLY ON POLITICAL POWER.  BUT WHAT MAKES THE RESULTS OF 
THIS CONGRESS FAR MORE FAR-REACHING ARE THE COMBINATION OF 
OTHER PERSONNEL AND STRUCTURAL CHANGES THAT WERE MADE. 
TAKEN TOGETHER, WE BELIEVE THESE CHANGES ADD UP TO A 
SIGNIFICANT VICTORY FOR THE MORE REFORM-MINDED AMONG THE 
LEADERSHIP. 
 
¶9. (C) PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANTLY, THE CPV'S THREE SENIOR 
ADVISORS ALL STEPPED DOWN FROM THEIR POSITIONS, AND THE CPV 
ANNOUNCED THERE WOULD BE NO FURTHER SENIOR ADVISORS.  IN A 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HANOI  00965  02 OF 05  231115Z 
DRAMATIC SYMBOL OF THE PASSING OF THE TORCH, MANH PRESENTED 
BOUQUETS OF FLOWERS TO DO MUOI, FORMER PRESIDENT LE DUC 
ANH, FORMER PRIME MINISTER VO VAN KIET AND ALSO FORMER 
PRESIDENT (AND ANH'S PREDECESSOR) VO CHI CONG IN 
APPRECIATION FOR THEIR LIFETIME OF WORK.  MANH ALSO 
EXCHANGED VALEDICTORY SPEECHES WITH PHIEU, AND THEY 
EXCHANGED FLOWERS AND HUGS TO SHOW ALL WAS "UNITY, UNITY, 
GREAT UNITY" AMONG THE LEADERSHIP.  (NOTE: INTERESTINGLY, 
CONG WAS SEATED ON THE FRONT ROW OF THE DAIS BETWEEN PM 
KHAI AND MANH, AND THE FRAIL FORMER LEADER WAS HELPED ON 
STAGE BY MANH BEFORE THE BEGINNING OF THE CONGRESS' CLOSING 
SESSION.  THE INCLUSION OF CONG AS THE FIRST OF THE FOUR 
ADVISORS THAT MANH ACKNOWLEDGED WAS TELLING: BY INCLUDING 
HIM, THE REMAINING SURVIVING MEMBER OF THE PHAM VAN DONG- 
NGUYEN VAN LINH TRIUMVIRATE THAT STEPPED DOWN IN 1991, MANH 
WAS SYMBOLICALLY PLACING MUOI, ANH AND KIET -- AND PHIEU AS 
WELL -- IN A LARGER GROUP OF CPV VETERANS AND SENIOR 
ADVISORS WHO WERE MOVING OFF THE STAGE.  THE IMPLICATION 
WAS CLEAR: THEIR TIME HAD PAST, AND A NEW GENERATION OF 
LEADERS WAS TAKING OVER.) 
 
¶10. (SBU) IN REMARKS TO A PRESS CONFERENCE HELD AFTER THE 
CLOSING SESSION, MANH REINFORCED THE GENERATIONAL 
TRANSITION THEME.  RESPONDING TO A QUESTION ABOUT THE 
SENIOR ADVISORS, THE NEW GENERAL SECRETARY SAID THE CPV HAS 
GONE THROUGH "DIFFERENT STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT" AND ONE 
PRINCIPLE THE CPV EMBRACES IS "THE SUCCESSION OF 
GENERATIONS."  HE NOTED ALL THE SENIOR ADVISORS ARE "AGED" 
AND WHILE THEY CAN CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE THEIR IDEAS TO 
THE CPV AND ITS OFFICES, THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE WILL NOT 
CONTINUE THE TRADITION OF HAVING ADVISORS. 
 
¶11. (C) IN ADDITION TO THE ABOLITION OF THE SENIOR ADVISOR 
POSITIONS, MOST OF THE POLITBURO'S ELDERLY MEMBERS RETIRED. 
AS EXPECTED, SEVEN POLITBURO MEMBERS WERE DROPPED FROM THE 
BODY AND THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE AS WELL: PHIEU, 69; 
FATHERLAND FRONT HEAD PHAM THE DUYET, 64; HO CHI MINH 
POLITICAL ACADEMY DIRECTOR NGUYEN DUC BINH, 73; DEPUTY PM 
NGUYEN MANH CAM, 71; ARMY POLITICAL DIRECTOR PHAM THANH 
NGAN, 62; NGUYEN THI XUAN MY, 60; AND CPV IDEOLOGY CHIEF LE 
XUAN TUNG, 64.  BINH, CAM AND PHIEU WERE THE OLDEST MEMBERS 
OF THE BODY, AND AMONG THE SEVEN, ONLY CAM WAS A MEMBER OF 
PRO-REFORM CAMP.  PHIEU, BINH AND NGAN, IN FACT, WERE AMONG 
THOSE MOST RESISTANT TO RAPID MOVEMENT FORWARD ON REFORM. 
(SEPTEL REPORTS ON EMBASSY'S TRACKING OF THE OLD POLITBURO 
MEMBERS IN THE RUN-UP TO THE CONGRESS.) 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  00965  03 OF 05  231116Z 
A YOUNGER POLITBURO WITH A STRENGTHENED REFORMIST BLOC 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶12. (C) THE NEW 15-MEMBER POLITBURO AND 150-MEMBER CENTRAL 
COMMITTEE ARE LEANER, YOUNGER, AND BETTER EDUCATED THAN 
THEIR 19-MEMBER AND 170-MEMBER PREDECESSORS THAT WERE 
APPROVED FIVE YEARS AGO.  (THE NUMBERS OF THE OUTGOING 
BODIES WERE SLIGHTLY REDUCED BECAUSE OF DEATHS AND 
RETIREMENTS.)  OVERALL, BOTH THE NEW POLITBURO AND CENTRAL 
COMMITTEE GIVE GREATER PROMINENCE TO REFORMERS, AND IN 
PARTICULAR IT IS NOTABLE THAT SOUTHERN REFORMERS NGUYEN 
MINH TRIET, HEAD OF THE HO CHI MINH CITY CPV, AND NGUYEN 
TAN DUNG, FIRST DEPUTY PM, WERE PROMOTED TO FOUR AND FIVE 
IN THE LEADERSHIP BETWEEN MANH, LUONG AND KHAI. 
 
¶13. (U) THE NEW POLITBURO LINE-UP IN OFFICIAL PRECEDENCE 
ORDER: 
 
-- 1. NONG DUC MANH, CURRENTLY HEAD OF NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
-- 2. TRAN DUC LUONG, PRESIDENT 
-- 3. PHAN VAN KHAI, PRIME MINISTER 
-- 4. NGUYEN MINH TRIET, HCMC PARTY CHIEF 
-- 5. NGUYEN TAN DUNG, FIRST DEPUTY PM 
-- 6. LE MINH HUONG, MINISTER OF PUBLIC SECURITY 
-- 7. NGUYEN PHU TRONG, HANOI PARTY CHIEF 
-- 8. PHAN DIEN, DANANG PARTY CHIEF 
-- 9. LE HONG ANH, HEAD OF CPV CENTRAL CONTROL COMMISSION 
-- 10. TRUONG TAN SANG, CHAIR OF CPV ECONOMIC COMMISSION 
-- 11. SR. LTG PHAM VAN TRA, MINISTER OF DEFENSE 
-- 12. NGUYEN VAN AN, HEAD OF CPV ORGANIZATIONAL COMMISSION 
-- 13. TRUONG QUANG DUOC, HEAD OF CPV MASS MOBILIZATION 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HANOI  00965  03 OF 05  231116Z 
-- 14. TRAN DINH HOAN, HEAD OF CENTRAL COMMITTEE OFFICE 
-- 15. NGUYEN KHOA DIEM, MINISTER OF CULTURE & INFORMATION 
 
¶14. (C) THE NEW POLITBURO IS STRIKING FOR THE LOW LEVEL OF 
MILITARY PARTICIPATION, WHICH IS UNPRECEDENTED IN MODERN 
VIETNAM.  THE ONLY MILITARY MEMBER REMAINING ON THE 
POLITBURO IS DEFENSE MINISTER PHAM VAN TRA, RANKED A LOWLY 
11TH OUT OF 15, WITH ONLY AN AND THREE NEW MEMBERS RANKED 
BELOW HIM.  (FOR BOTH TRA, 65, AND AN, 63, IN PARTICULAR, 
IT IS STRIKING THEY WERE NOT ACCORDED THE RESPECT OF 
"SENIORITY" THAT NORMALLY IS ACCORDED THOSE IN THE 
POLITBURO OF ELDER RANK.  IN THE OUTGOING POLITBURO THE 
SENIOR MEMBERS CAM AND BINH WERE ACCORDED A MORE SENIOR 
RANK JUST BELOW THE THEN FIVE-MEMBER STANDING BOARD, WHICH 
WAS ABOLISHED AT THIS CONGRESS.  AT THIS CONGRESS, TRA AND 
AN WERE DROPPED UNCEREMONIOUSLY.)  AS DOCUMENTED 
PREVIOUSLY, TRA WAS CENSURED BY THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE FOR 
"MANAGEMENT FAILURES" ONLY WEEKS AGO, AND INITIALLY THE 
EXPECTATION WAS HE WOULD BE DROPPED FROM THE POLITBURO.  HE 
SURVIVED, BUT IN A WEAKENED POSITION, AND VIETNAM'S 
MILITARY IS LESS WELL-REPRESENTED THAN AT ANY TIME. 
(TRADITIONALLY, ONE OF THE THREE SENIOR POSITIONS IS 
OCCUPIED BY A MILITARY VETERAN, SUCH AS LE DUC ANH OR 
PHIEU.) 
 
 
¶15. (C) A FURTHER "SYMBOL" OF TRA'S STATUS PERHAPS COULD BE 
INFERRED FROM WHAT APPEARED TO BE LAST-MINUTE REVISIONS TO 
MANH'S CLOSING SPEECH TO THE CONGRESS YESTERDAY.  MANH, 
SITTING AT THE DAIS ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE HIS SPEECH, 
APPEARED TO WRITE CHANGES ON A MANUSCRIPT AND HE THEN 
PASSED THEM DOWN THROUGH KIET, CAM AND BINH TO THE END OF 
THE DAIS, WHERE TRA WAS SITTING ON THE END.  TRA TWICE IN 
15 MINUTES WAS FORCED TO GET UP WITH A PAPER AND WALK OFF 
THE STAGE TO HAND THEM TO STAFF.  THOUGH PERHAPS THE LUCK 
OF THE DRAWER FOR THE GUY ON THE END, IT WAS STRIKING THAT 
ONE OF THE MOST SENIOR POLITBURO MEMBERS WAS A "GOFER" FOR 
THE NEW GENERAL SECRETARY.  IN ANY EVENT, THE VISUAL 
IMPRESSION WAS SYMBOLIC OF TRA'S REDUCED STATUS. 
 
¶16. (C) AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY, THE RETIREMENT OF ARMED 
FORCES POLITICAL COMMISSAR LT. GEN. NGAN WAS THE BIGGEST 
SURPRISE OF THOSE DROPPED FROM THE POLITBURO.  MULTIPLE 
SOURCES REPORT HE, LIKE PHIEU, WAS DROPPED IN LARGE PART 
BECAUSE OF HIS INVOLVEMENT IN THE USE OF MILITARY 
INTELLIGENCE ASSETS AGAINST FELLOW POLITBURO MEMBERS.  (IN 
COMMENTS TO THE PRESS AT THE CONGRESS, KIET SEEMED TO 
CONFIRM THIS PLAYED A PART IN PHIEU'S DOWNFALL.)  (COMMENT: 
WHILE THE MILITARY IS SMARTING FROM THIS DEMOTION, THIS MAY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  00965  04 OF 05  231116Z 
HELP SPUR PROFESSIONALIZATION AND GREATER CIVILIAN CONTROL 
OF THE MILITARY IN VIETNAM.  END COMMENT.) 
 
------------------------------ 
THE FOUR NEW POLITBURO MEMBERS 
------------------------------ 
 
¶17. (C) THE FOUR NEW POLITBURO MEMBERS ARE LE HONG ANH, 
TRUONG QUANG DUOC, TRAN DINH HOAN, AND NGUYEN KHOA DIEM. 
THESE FOUR ARE GENERALLY SEEN AS MODERATE OR REFORMIST, 
ACCORDING TO THE SWEDISH DCM, WHO HAS SERVED SEVERAL TOURS 
HERE.  ANH WAS GIVEN INCREASED PROMINENCE IMMEDIATELY FOR 
SEVERAL REASONS: HE JUMPED THREE PREVIOUS MEMBERS -- SANG, 
TRA AND ANH -- IN PRECEDENCE TO NINTH OF 15, AND HE WAS 
SINGLED OUT DURING OTHER PERSONNEL ANNOUNCEMENTS AT THE 
CLOSING AS WELL.  HE WILL HEAD THE NINE-MEMBER CENTRAL 
COMMITTEE INSPECTORATE, AND HE WAS LISTED SECOND TO MANH 
AMONG THE NINE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE NEW POLITBURO 
SECRETARIAT (DESCRIBED FURTHER BELOW).  ANH, WHO WAS BORN 
 
SIPDIS 
IN 1949 IN KIEN GIANG PROVINCE IN THE SOUTH, WILL BE AMONG 
THE YOUNGEST POLITBURO MEMBERS.  UNTIL 1997 HE SERVED AS 
CHAIRMAN OF THE CPV PARTY COMMITTEE IN KIEN GIANG.  IN 1997 
HE WAS NAMED VICE CHAIR OF THE CPV CONTROL COMMISSION, 
MOVING UP TO THE TOP SPOT THIS WEEKEND.  HE HAS BEEN A 
MEMBER OF THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE SINCE 1996.  THE SWEDISH 
DCM, WHO HAS MET HIM SEVERAL TIMES, SAYS HE IS A STRONG 
ORGANIZER, AN "APPARATCHIK" WHO WILL FOLLOW ORDERS RATHER 
THAN AN IDEOLOGUE.  SHE SAYS HE HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD AND 
HAS MOVED UP QUICKLY IN CPV RANKS. 
 
¶18. (C) DUOC, A REFORMER FROM DANANG, CAME UP THROUGH THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HANOI  00965  04 OF 05  231116Z 
PEOPLE'S COMMITTEE IN DANANG RISING TO PARTY BOSS THERE. 
HE MOVED TO HEAD MASS MOBILIZATION A YEAR AGO WHEN DIEN WAS 
MOVED TO DANANG AND TRIET MOVED TO HCMC FROM THE MASS 
MOBILIZATION SLOT.  (TRADITIONALLY THE HEAD OF MASS 
MOBILIZATION IS IN THE POLITBURO.)  THE SWEDISH DCM HAS MET 
HIM TWICE AND IS IMPRESSED WITH HIS COMMAND OF HIS 
PORTFOLIO AND HIS REFORMIST BENT. 
 
¶19. (C) HOAN, 61, HAS SERVED AS "CHIEF OF STAFF" AT THE 
CENTRAL COMMITTEE OFFICE SINCE JANUARY 1998.  FROM HAI HUNG 
PROVINCE IN THE NORTH, HOAN WORKED FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES 
IN LABOR ISSUES AFTER RECEIVING A MASTER'S IN ECONOMICS 
FROM HUNGARY IN 1980.  HE SERVED AS HEAD OF THE INSTITUTE 
OF LABOR AFFAIRS AND THEN AS DEPUTY DIRECTOR AT MOLISA 
(1981) AND DIRECTOR OF THE GENERAL ORGANIZATIONAL DEPT 
THERE (1983).  HE BECAME VICE MINISTER OF LABOR IN 1987 AND 
MINISTER IN 1987, SERVING FOR THE NEXT DECADE.  HE IS 
MARRIED WITH TWO GROWN SONS.  ONE OF HIS DEPUTIES AT MOLISA 
(STRICTLY PROTECT) DESCRIBED HIM AS A STRONG SUPPORTER OF 
ECONOMIC REFORM AND LABOR REFORMS, AND HE IS EXPECTED TO 
BOOST THESE ISSUES ON THE SECRETARIAT.  AS HEAD OF THE 
CENTRAL COMMITTEE OFFICE, HE WAS ONE OF THE MOST VOCAL IN 
THE RECENT CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEETINGS CALLING FOR PHIEU TO 
STEP DOWN, ACCORDING TO AN EDITOR OF "THE PEOPLE'S ARMY" 
NEWSPAPER.  (ACCORDING TO THIS SOURCE, LE HONG ANH WAS ALSO 
VOCAL IN THIS REGARD.) 
 
¶20. (C) DIEM, 58, HAS SERVED AS MINISTER OF CULTURE SINCE 
NOVEMBER 1996.  FROM HUE CITY, HE STUDIED IN HANOI, 
"PARTICIPATED IN THE WAR IN THE SOUTH OF VIETNAM" FROM 
1965-75 (ACCORDING TO HIS OFFICIAL CV), THEN RETURNED TO 
HUE, RISING TO BE DEPUTY SECRETARY OF THE THUA THIEN-HUE 
CPV IN 1991.  HE BECAME A MEMBER OF THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE 
OF THE VIETNAM WRITERS' UNION AND DEPUTY MINISTER OF 
CULTURE AND INFORMATION IN 1993.  HE IS MARRIED WITH TWO 
DAUGHTERS AND A SON.  THOUGH HIS MINISTRY IS ONE OF THE 
MOST DIFFICULT TO DEAL WITH, ESPECIALLY AS IT ENFORCES 
CENSORSHIP RULES, THE SWEDISH DCM FINDS A SILVER LINING IN 
HOW HE PRESIDES OVER THIS HIGHLY IDEOLOGICAL PORTFOLIO. 
PERSONALLY HE IS "OPEN MINDED" AND IS PRAGMATIC WHEN 
RESOLVING THORNY DILEMMAS.  SHE SAID HE WAS INSTRUMENTAL IN 
THE SWEDES GETTING APPROVAL FOR A CONTROVERSIAL FILM AT THE 
RECENT HANOI FILM FESTIVAL.  BY HIS PORTFOLIO, WE EXPECT 
HIM TO BE INFLUENTIAL IN ENFORCING PROPAGANDA AND 
INFORMATION POLICIES OF THE CPV. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
SECRETARIAT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE EFFICIENCY 
 
SIPDIS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  00965  05 OF 05  231116Z 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶21. (C) THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF A NINE-MEMBER SECRETARIAT, 
COMPOSED OF FIVE POLITBURO MEMBERS AND FOUR OTHER CENTRAL 
COMMITTEE MEMBERS, IS EXPECTED TO HELP PROMOTE GREATER 
EFFICIENCY IN CPV LEADERSHIP DECISION-MAKING. ANOTHER 
POSITIVE SIGNAL IS THAT REFORMIST TRADE MINISTER VU KHOAN, 
REPORTEDLY TO BE ELECTED A DEPUTY PM NEXT MONTH, WILL ACT 
AS VIRTUAL "POLITBURO CHIEF OF STAFF" WORKING ON THE NEW 
SECRETARIAT.  (WE WILL REPORT FURTHER SEPTEL ON THE 
 
SIPDIS 
SECRETARIAT.) 
 
SIPDIS 
 
¶22. (U) THE NINE MEMBERS OF THE SECRETARIAT AS ANNOUNCED IN 
PRECEDENCE ORDER ARE: 
 
-- NONG DUC MANH 
-- LE HONG ANH 
-- NGUYEN VAN AN 
-- TRAN DINH HOAN 
-- NGUYEN KHOA DIEM 
-- LE VAN DUNG, ARMY CHIEF OF STAFF 
-- MS. TONG THI PHONG, SON LA PROVINCIAL CPV CHIEF 
-- TRUONG VINH TRONG, DONG THAP PROVINCIAL CPV CHIEF 
-- VU KHOAN, MINISTER OF TRADE 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶23. (C) TAKEN TOGETHER, THESE PERSONNEL AND STRUCTURAL 
CHANGES IN THE CPV'S SENIOR RANKS LIKELY WILL HELP PROVIDE 
A NEW BOOST FOR THE ECONOMIC REFORM AGENDA.  MANH IS A MORE 
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PRAGMATIC, RESULTS-ORIENTED COALITION BUILDER THAN THE 
HIGHLY IDEOLOGICAL AND XENOPHOBIC PHIEU.  THE INCREASED 
DECISION-MAKING CLOUT AND PROMINENCE OF KHAI, TRIET, DUNG 
AND OTHER NEW REFORMERS IN THE LEADERSHIP -- WITHOUT PHIEU 
OR SENIOR ADVISORS GUMMING UP THE WORKS -- SUGGEST THIS 
BODY MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE DECISIONS MORE EFFICIENTLY AND 
PRODUCTIVELY.  WHILE THE CPV'S CONSERVATIVE INTERESTS STILL 
ARE REPRESENTED IN THE LEADERSHIP -- HUONG OF MPS, TRONG OF 
THE CPV IDEOLOGUES, TRA OF THE MILITARY -- THEIR PROFILE 
AND CLOUT APPEAR TO BE MUCH LOWER.  THIS IS STILL A 
COLLECTIVE LEADERSHIP, OF COURSE, BUT THE BALANCE OF FORCES 
IS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE TO REFORMERS.  WITH A VU KHOAN- 
MANNED SECRETARIAT PLAYING A BIGGER ROLE, WE ARE HOPEFUL 
THIS NEW LINE-UP WILL INDEED LIVE UP TO ITS POTENTIAL.  IN 
ANY EVENT, THIS CONGRESS WAS A KEY VICTORY FOR REFORMERS 
HERE.  END COMMENT. 
PETERSON 
 
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