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2001HANOI00919 - CONFIDENTIAL
 
 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ6047

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FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2598
INFO ASEAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI//J5/FPA// PRIORITY
DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 
DEPTTREAS WASHDC PRIORITY
USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HANOI 000919 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR S/S-O, EAP, EAP/BCLTV, DRL, INR 
STATE PASS USTR DAMOND 
NSC FOR EAST ASIAN DIRECTORATE 
SECDEF FOR ISA/EAP STERN 
USDOC FOR 4431/MAC/AP/OKSA/HPPHO 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/18/2011 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR VM DPOL
SUBJECT: LEANER POLITBURO AND CENTRAL COMMITTEE TO BE UNVEILED AT WEEKEND COMMUNIST PARTY CONGRESS 
 
REF: A) HANOI 905   B) HANOI 638 
 
¶1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL COUNSELOR JAMES BRUNO; 
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
¶2. (C) SUMMARY: FOUR NEW POLITBURO MEMBERS -- REPORTEDLY 
INCLUDING MASS MOBILIZATION HEAD DUOC AND FORMER LABOR 
MINISTER HOAN -- ARE EXPECTED TO JOIN A SLIMMED-DOWN, 15- 
MEMBER LEADERSHIP TO BE UNVEILED AT THE NINTH PARTY 
CONGRESS, WHICH OPENS APRIL 19.  ON BALANCE, THE NEW 
POLITBURO, EXPECTED TO BE HEADED BY ASSEMBLY SPEAKER MANH, 
SHOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ECONOMIC REFORM.  SEVEN MOSTLY 
OLDER MEMBERS ARE EXPECTED TO RETIRE, INCLUDING GENERAL 
SECRETARY PHIEU, FATHERLAND FRONT LEADER DUYET, AND 
 
SIPDIS 
PEOPLE'S ARMY POLITICAL COMMISSAR NGAN.  IN A SURPRISE, 
SEVERAL SOURCES SAY DEFENSE MINISTER TRA, RECENTLY 
DISCIPLINED BY THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE, WILL RETAIN HIS SEAT 
AS THE LONE MILITARY MAN IN THE BODY.  THE LATEST REPORTS 
WE HEAR ARE THAT PM KHAI WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, PERHAPS FOR 
ANOTHER YEAR.  HCMC PARTY CHIEF TRIET, POPULAR AMONG HIS 
CENTRAL COMMITTEE PEERS, IS SAID BY SEVERAL SOURCES TO BE 
HIS HEIR APPARENT.  OTHERS SAY FIRST DEPUTY PM DUNG WILL 
RETAIN HIS DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER SLOT FOR THE TIME BEING. 
WE EXPECT THE LEANER, 150-MEMBER CENTRAL COMMITTEE ALSO TO 
BE MARGINALLY MORE ASSERTIVE WITH THE POLITBURO AND 
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SUPPORTIVE OF ECONOMIC REFORM.  END SUMMARY. 
 
PARTY CONGRESS TO APPROVE NEW POLITBURO 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) THE 1,168 VOTING DELEGATES TO THE NINTH COMMUNIST 
PARTY CONGRESS (TWO OTHERS ARE ILL) WILL FORMALLY MEET 
APRIL 19-22 IN BA DINH HALL TO APPROVE THE FOUR SEMINAL 
POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DOCUMENTS OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY 
(CPV) AND TO APPROVE THE NEW LEADERSHIP LINEUP.  AS CITED 
REF A, GENERAL SECRETARY LE KHA PHIEU APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY 
TO BE REPLACED BY NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SPEAKER NONG DUC MANH, 
ACCORDING TO A NUMBER OF SOURCES.  SEVERAL SOURCES REPORT 
MANH, INITIALLY RELUCTANT TO TAKE THE SUPREME POST, AGREED 
TO DO SO AFTER REQUESTS FROM CPV ELDERS AND WINNING A 
STRONG VOTE OF SUPPORT FROM THE DELEGATES.  AT THE SAME 
TIME, OTHER REPORTS CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE THAT CPV 
ORGANIZATIONAL AFFAIRS CHIEF NGUYEN VAN AN WAS CONSIDERED 
ON THE LAST DAY OF THE PRE-CONGRESS FOR THE TOP SLOT.  IN 
ANY EVENT, THE PROGRAM FOR THE CONGRESS NOTABLY OMITS THE 
NAME OF THE GENERAL SECRETARY AT THE END OF THE CONGRESS, 
WHILE LISTING PHIEU AT THE BEGINNING. (COMMENT: WE EXPECT 
MANH TO BE UNVEILED THE AFTERNOON OF APRIL 22 WHEN THE 
RESULTS OF THE APRIL 21 CONGRESS ELECTIONS ARE FORMALLY 
ANNOUNCED, BUT THIS OPAQUE LEADERSHIP STRUCTURE HAS 
SURPRISED US BEFORE, SO WE'LL WAIT FOR THE SOLOIST IN THIS 
CPV OPERA TO FINISH HER LAST ARIA BEFORE PRONOUNCING WITH 
CERTAINTY.  END COMMENT.) 
 
¶4. (C) THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM AMONG CPV-CONNECTED SOURCES 
IS THAT FOUR NEW MEMBERS ARE EXPECTED TO JOIN A SLIMMED- 
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DOWN, 15-MEMBER POLITBURO.  WE HEAR DIFFERENT NAMES FROM 
DIFFERENT SOURCES.  HEAD OF THE CPV'S MASS MOBILIZATION 
ORGANIZATION, TRUONG QUANG DUOC, AND FORMER LABOR MINISTER 
NGUYEN DINH HOAN ARE COMMON TO MOST LISTS.  BOTH SEEM 
PLAUSIBLE CHOICES.  THE HEAD OF MASS MOBILIZATION 
TRADITIONALLY HAS BEEN A POLITBURO MEMBER, AND THIS IS THE 
POST PHAM THE DUYET PREVIOUSLY HELD.  GIVEN UNREST IN THE 
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND THE NEED TO RALLY POPULAR SUPPORT FOR 
CPV POSITIONS AROUND THE COUNTRY, THIS MAKES SENSE. 
LIKEWISE, WE HAVE HEARD FROM A CLOSE WORKING CONTACT 
(STRICTLY PROTECT) AT THE LABOR MINISTRY, WHO CONSIDERS 
HOAN HIS MENTOR, THAT HE BELIEVES HE MAY BE MOVING ON TO 
WORK WITH HOAN WHEN HE MOVES UP TO THE POLITBURO. 
(COMMENT: WE KNOW LITTLE ABOUT DUOC BUT HIS CURRENT 
PORTFOLIO IS HIGHLY FOCUSED ON IDEOLOGICAL AND CPV 
ORGANIZATIONAL MATTERS.  HOAN IS AN ADVOCATE OF MORE RAPID 
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL REFORM, AND IS SEEN BY A FORMER DEPUTY 
AS A PROGRESSIVE.  END COMMENT) 
 
¶5. (C) THE OTHER TWO POLITBURO SLOTS ARE MORE MUDDLED.  ONE 
CPV SOURCE SAYS CULTURE AND INFORMATION MINISTER NGUYEN 
KHOA DIEM AND THE DEPUTY HEAD OF THE CPV CONTROL 
COMMISSION, LE HONG ANH, ARE THE OTHER TWO TAPPED FOR THE 
ELITE BODY.  HOWEVER, EARLIER IN THE WEEK WE HEARD THAT 
TRADE MINISTER VU KHOAN AND DEPUTY PM KHIEM WERE SLATED FOR 
THIS PROMOTION.  (COMMENT: RUMORS CIRCULATE THAT VU KHOAN 
IS ALMOST CERTAIN TO TAKE THE DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER DUTIES 
OF RETIRING NGUYEN MANH CAM, WHO IS ALSO A POLITBURO 
MEMBER.  THE QUESTION IS WHETHER KHOAN WILL TAKE OVER 
EITHER THE POLITBURO SEAT AND POSSIBLY THE FOREIGN MINISTER 
POST.  END COMMENT.) 
 
¶6. (C) SEVEN MOSTLY OLDER POLITBURO MEMBERS ARE EXPECTED TO 
STEP DOWN.  WE BELIEVE THEY WILL BE CPV GENERAL SECRETARY 
PHIEU, FATHERLAND FRONT HEAD DUYET, PEOPLE'S ARMY POLITICAL 
COMMISSAR GEN. PHAM THANH NGAN (WHO REPORTEDLY WILL FALL 
WITH HIS MENTOR PHIEU), DEPUTY PM CAM, HO CHI MINH 
POLITICAL ACADEMY DIRECTOR NGUYEN DUC BINH, CPV IDEOLOGICAL 
AFFAIRS DIRECTOR LE XUAN TUNG, AND CPV CONTROL COMMISSION 
CHAIRWOMAN NGUYEN THI XUAN MY.  WE HAVE LONG BELIEVED CAM, 
BINH, AND TUNG WERE RIPE TO STEP DOWN.  PHIEU'S AND DUYET'S 
BATTLES TO RETAIN THEIR POSTS OVER THE PAST MONTHS HAVE 
BEEN WELL DOCUMENTED.  LIKEWISE, MY WAS STRONGLY CRITICIZED 
FOR HER POOR MANAGEMENT OF THE CRITICISM/SELF-CRITICISM 
CAMPAIGN, BUT THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM UNTIL THIS PAST WEEK 
WAS THE CPV WOULD NOT WANT TO REMOVE THE ONLY WOMAN EVER 
APPOINTED TO THE POLITBURO. 
 
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¶7. (C) THE MOST INTERESTING NAME ON THIS LIST, NGAN, IS 
CLOSELY TIED TO THE MOST INTERESTING OMISSION, TRA.  GEN. 
NGAN HAS LONG BEEN SEEN AS ONE OF THE POTENTIAL "COMERS" 
AMONG THE POLITBURO, BUT IT HAS BEEN CLEAR HIS RAPID RECENT 
RISE WAS CLOSELY TIED TO PHIEU'S.  HE FOLLOWED PHIEU AS 
POLITICAL COMMISSAR OF THE ARMED FORCES, AND OVER THE PAST 
YEAR SEVERAL MILITARY SOURCES SUGGESTED HE WAS DESTINED FOR 
HIGHER THINGS.  CONVERSELY, THE AGING DEFENSE MINISTER TRA 
WAS SHARPLY RAPPED ON THE KNUCKLES BY THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE 
ONLY WEEKS AGO, IN PART FOR THE VIOLATIONS OF VIETNAMESE 
AIRSPACE BY VIETNAMESE-AMERICAN SELF-DESCRIBED "FREEDOM 
FIGHTER" LY TONG.  THAT REPRIMAND SEEMED TO FORESHADOW HIS 
LIKELY RETIREMENT FROM HIS GOVERNMENT AND POLITBURO POSTS. 
WE SUSPECT TRA MAY HAVE BEEN RETAINED EITHER AS A SOP TO 
PHIEU LOYALISTS, OR AS PART OF OTHER BARGAINING WITH 
MILITARY SUPPORTERS.  STRIKINGLY, IF THE CURRENT FORECASTED 
LINE-UP HOLDS, TRA WOULD BE THE ONLY MILITARY 
REPRESENTATIVE IN THE POLITBURO. 
 
KHAI REPORTED TO STAY ON AS PRIME MINISTER 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶8. (C) CONTRARY TO REPORTS IN REF A, THE LATEST REPORTS WE 
HEAR ARE THAT PRIME MINISTER PHAN VAN KHAI WILL REMAIN IN 
PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING, PERHAPS FOR ANOTHER YEAR.  HCMC 
PARTY CHIEF NGUYEN MINH TRIET, WHO POLLED SIGNIFICANT 
SUPPORT AMONG HIS CENTRAL COMMITTEE PEERS IN SEVERAL 
BALLOTS OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS, APPARENTLY IS SEEN BY MANY 
AS HEIR APPARENT.  HOWEVER, FOR THE TIME BEING, IT APPEARS 
FIRST DEPUTY PM NGUYEN TAN DUNG WILL RETAIN HIS SLOT AND 
THUS A PLAUSIBLE CLAIM AS PM-IN-WAITING.  (COMMENT: TRIET, 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HANOI  00919  02 OF 03  181124Z 
DUNG AND TRUONG TAN SANG HAVE LONG BEEN SEEN AS THE 
YOUNGER, MORE DYNAMIC SOUTHERN REFORMERS MOST LIKELY TO 
TAKE OVER FROM KHAI.  END COMMENT.) 
 
¶9. (SBU) SOURCES SUGGEST THE NEW CENTRAL COMMITTEE WILL 
HAVE 150 MEMBERS (VERSUS 170 FOR THAT ELECTED IN 1996). 
CPV BRIEFERS SAID APRIL 18 THE CPV WOULD EMPHASIZE "QUALITY 
OVER QUANTITY" AS PART OF ITS STREAMLINING.  CPV OFFICIALS 
TOLD THE PRESS THE CPV WOULD BRING BACK A SECRETARIAT STAFF 
THAT WOULD RUN THE DAY-TO-DAY AFFAIRS OF THE POLITBURO. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶10. (C) IF THE FORECASTED LINE-UPS ARE CONFIRMED APRIL 22, 
THE NEW LEANER LEADERSHIP BODIES OF THE CPV LOOK TO BE 
MODESTLY MORE SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING THE PACE OF ECONOMIC 
REFORM.  NOTABLE IS THAT MOST OF THE IDEOLOGICAL DEADWOOD 
OF THE SEPTUAGENARIANS IN THE POLITBURO WILL BE RETIRED. 
SOME OF THE YOUNGER MEMBERS LIKELY WILL PROVIDE MORE VIGOR 
IN PRESSING THE REFORM PROGRAM.  THAT SAID, THIS IS A 
COLLECTIVE LEADERSHIP, AND THE SCREEDS AGAINST THE U.S. IN 
THE PRESS AND THE REFLEXIVE HARPING ON THE DANGERS OF 
"PEACEFUL EVOLUTION" INDICATE REFORM CHANGES WILL BE 
GRADUAL AND MEASURED.  MANH IS A COALITION BUILDER, AND 
THOUGH PERHAPS LESS WELL-REPRESENTED IN THE TOP RANK, THE 
MILITARY, PUBLIC SECURITY AND CPV IDEOLOGUES STILL COMMAND 
IMPORTANT SEATS AT THE TABLE.  END COMMENT. 
PETERSON 
 
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