This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

110547Z Mar 01


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTO5657

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INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  USNW-00  
      DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    FAAE-00  FBIE-00  
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                  ------------------D0211C  110550Z /38    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8389
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000970 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, 
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR - VDICKSON-HORTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/11 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM EAGR EAID PINR ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S CFU DIRECTOR RECOMMENDS PERSONAL 
SANCTIONS AND REGIONAL DIPLOMACY TO GET MUGABE TO CHANGE 
COURSE 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY ECONOMIC OFFICER SCOTT REMINGTON FOR 
REASONS 1.5 (B/D). 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00970  01 OF 03  110550Z 
 
REFS: A. HARARE 898, B. HARARE 743 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (C) ON FEBRUARY 8, ACTING PRINCIPAL DEPUTY ASSISTANT 
SECRETARY (PDAS) MARK BELLAMY, CHARGE' EARL IRVING, AND 
 
SIPDIS 
ECONOFF (NOTETAKER) MET WITH COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION 
(CFU) DIRECTOR DAVID HASLUCK TO DISCUSS THE CURRENT 
PLIGHT OF COMMERCIAL FARMERS IN ZIMBABWE.  HASLUCK 
STATED THAT WHILE THE COMMERCIAL FARMING COMMUNITY IS 
UNDER TREMENDOUS PSYCHOLOGICAL STRESS FROM THE FARM 
INVASIONS AND VIOLENCE BY WAR VETS, THE MAJORITY OF 
COMMERCIAL FARMERS ARE BEING ALLOWED TO FARM, AND SHOULD 
HAVE GOOD CROP YIELDS AT THE END OF THE CURRENT GROWING 
SEASON.  A CONCERN MENTIONED BY HASLUCK WAS THAT IF 
COMMERCIAL FARMERS DO NOT GET GUARANTEES FROM THE 
GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) THAT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO 
HARVEST WINTER WHEAT (DUE FOR PLANTING IN THE APRIL/MAY 
PERIOD), MANY FARMERS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PLANT FOR THE 
SEASON.  THIS WILL LEAD TO THE GOZ HAVING TO IMPORT 
LARGE QUANTITIES OF WHEAT BY THE END OF 2001.  ACCORDING 
TO HASLUCK, THE CFU WILL BE GOING INTO ITS SPECIAL 
CONGRESS ON MARCH 21 AS A UNIFIED ORGANIZATION.  HE 
EXPECTS THAT AT THE END OF THE CONGRESS THE CFU WILL 
ISSUE A STATEMENT OF PRINCIPLES REGARDING ITS POSITIONS 
ON COMMERCIAL FARMING, LAND REFORM AND RESETTLEMENT. 
HASLUCK STATED THAT THE CFU HAS CONSISTENTLY ATTEMPTED 
TO ENGAGE THE GOZ ON A SERIOUS BASIS ON THE ISSUE OF 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00970  01 OF 03  110550Z 
LAND REFORM SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE FARM INVASIONS IN 
FEBRUARY 2000, BUT THAT THEY HAVE FOUND NO ONE IN THE 
GOZ WHO HAS THE AUTHORITY TO NEGOTIATE AN AGREEMENT 
WHICH WILL BE HONORED BY THE GOZ.  HASLUCK WAS EMPHATIC 
THAT HE DOES NOT FAVOR SANCTIONS ON ZIMBABWE AS A WAY OF 
ENCOURAGING PRESIDENT MUGABE AND THE GOZ TO CHANGE 
COURSE, BECAUSE THESE WILL DEAL A DEATHBLOW TO THE 
ZIMBABWE ECONOMY AND EXTRACT A HEAVY TOLL FROM THE 
ZIMBABWE PEOPLE.  RATHER, HE BELIEVES THAT A COMBINATION 
OF PERSONAL SANCTIONS PLACED ON PRESIDENT MUGABE AND 
OTHER KEYS MEMBERS OF THE GOZ (CANCELING OF US VISAS, 
FREEZING OF BANK ACCOUNTS, ETC.), COMBINED WITH 
INCREASED "QUIET" REGIONAL DIPLOMACY BY THE HEADS OF 
GOVERNMENTS OF NIGERIA, SOUTH AFRICA AND OTHER MEMBER 
STATES OF THE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
(SADC) COULD LEAD TO POSITIVE CHANGES IN THE COURSES OF 
ACTION BEING FOLLOWED BY THE GOZ.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------- 
COMMERCIAL FARMING STRUGGLES ON 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) PDAS BELLAMY ASKED HASLUCK HOW COMMERCIAL FARMERS 
WERE HOLDING UP IN THE CURRENT CRISIS SITUATION. 
HASLUCK REPLIED THAT WHILE THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS AND 
THEIR FAMILIES ARE UNDER TREMENDOUS PSYCHOLOGICAL STRESS 
AS A RESULT OF THE FARM INVASIONS AND VIOLENCE BY "WAR 
VETS", THE VAST MAJORITY OF FARMERS ARE BEING ALLOWED TO 
PROCEED WITH FARMING.  HE ADDED THAT IF THE HEAVY RAINS 
ZIMBABWE HAS BEEN RECEIVING SINCE LAST FEBRUARY LET UP 
IN TIME, THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS WILL HAVE GOOD TOBACCO, 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00970  01 OF 03  110550Z 
SOYBEAN, AND COTTON HARVESTS.  THE COMMERCIAL MAIZE 
HARVEST WILL BE MUCH SMALLER HE ADDED, BUT THIS IS 
BECAUSE FARMERS HAD PLANTED MUCH LESS HECTARAGE IN MAIZE 
AS A RESULT OF THE FARM INVASIONS AND LOW MARKET PRICE 
FOR MAIZE.  IN GENERAL, THE CATTLE HERDS OF COMMERCIAL 
FARMERS ARE QUITE HEALTHY, AND THE RECENT EUROPEAN UNION 
(EU) DECISION TO CONTINUE TO ALLOW BEEF EXPORTS FROM 
ZIMBABWE WILL BE A BOON FOR THE FARMERS.  HASLUCK 
REVEALED THAT THE COMMERCIAL FARMING COMMUNITY, WHICH 
HAS TRADITIONALLY BEEN CLOSE-KNIT, HAS BEEN BROUGHT 
CLOSER TOGETHER BY THE FARM INVASIONS.  THOSE FARMERS 
WHOSE FARMS HAVE BEEN COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN AS A RESULT 
OF INVASIONS AND "WAR VET" VIOLENCE ARE BEING HELPED BY 
OTHER FARMERS ALLOCATING A PORTION OF THEIR CROPS TO 
THESE FARMERS. 
 
¶3. (C) PDAS BELLAMY ASKED HASLUCK HOW THE FARM INVASIONS 
WERE AFFECTING THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS FARM LABOR. 
HASLUCK INDICATED THAT MOST FARMERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO 
KEEP THEIR FARM WORKERS ON PAYROLL, EVEN IF THEIR 
FARMING HAS BEEN INTERFERED WITH.  HE ADDED, THOUGH, 
THAT THERE WAS A LIMIT TO HOW LONG FARMERS COULD 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTO5658 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00970  02 OF 03  110550Z 
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INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  USNW-00 
      DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    FAAE-00  FBIE-00 
      VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   VCE-00   NSAE-00  SS-00    USIE-00 
      BBG-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /002W 
                  ------------------D02121  110550Z /38 
R 110547Z MAR 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8390 
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 000970 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, 
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR - VDICKSON-HORTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/11 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM EAGR EAID PINR ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S CFU DIRECTOR RECOMMENDS PERSONAL 
SANCTIONS AND REGIONAL DIPLOMACY TO GET MUGABE TO CHANGE 
COURSE 
 
CONTINUE TO PAY THEIR FARM WORKERS IF THEIR OPERATIONS 
CONTINUE TO BE INTERFERED WITH BY INVADERS AND "WAR 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00970  02 OF 03  110550Z 
VETS".  IF THE COMMERCIAL FARMS ARE SHUT DOWN, HUNDREDS 
OF THOUSANDS OF FARM WORKERS AND THEIR FAMILIES WILL BE 
AFFECTED. 
 
------------------------------ 
A CONCERN OVER WINTER PLANTING 
------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (C) HASLUCK WENT ON TO SAY THAT WHILE COMMERCIAL 
FARMERS ARE LOOKING TO GENERALLY GOOD HARVESTS AT THE 
END OF THIS SEASON, THE PICTURE FOR WINTER PLANTING IS 
QUITE DIFFERENT.  HE STATED THAT UNLESS FARMERS ARE ABLE 
TO GET GUARANTEES FROM THE GOZ THAT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO 
HARVEST THE WINTER CROPS THEY PLANT, THEY WILL NOT BE 
ABLE TO GET THE FINANCING THEY NEED FROM BANKS TO PLANT, 
AND THEY WILL NOT RISK WHAT PERSONAL CAPITAL THEY HAVE. 
HE ADDED THAT IF MANY FARMERS DO NOT PLANT FOR THE 
WINTER, THIS WILL SERIOUSLY AFFECT BOTH ZIMBABWE'S FOOD 
SECURITY AND HARD CURRENCY SITUATION.  THE WINTER WHEAT 
CROP, WHICH IS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY PLANTED BY COMMERCIAL 
FARMERS, IS ESSENTIAL FOR THE NATION.  IF FARMERS DO NOT 
PLANT WINTER WHEAT, THE GOZ COULD BE FORCED TO IMPORT UP 
TO 400,000 METRIC TONS OF WHEAT AT A TIME OF SCARCE HARD 
CURRENCY.  BARLEY AND HOPS ARE TWO OTHER WINTER CROPS 
THAT COMMERCIAL FARMERS PLANT, AND THE MAJORITY OF THESE 
CROPS ARE NORMALLY EXPORTED, EARNING HARD CURRENCY FOR 
THE NATION.  THESE CROPS ARE ALSO AT RISK IF THE FARMERS 
DO NOT RECEIVE GUARANTEES FROM THE GOZ. 
 
------------------- 
THE UNION IS UNITED 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00970  02 OF 03  110550Z 
------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) HASLUCK TOLD PDAS BELLAMY THAT THE CFU IS HEADING 
INTO ITS SPECIAL CONGRESS A UNITED ORGANIZATION.  HE 
STATED THAT NICK SWANEPOEL, A FORMER CFU PRESIDENT, HAD 
EXCEEDED HIS AUTHORITY WHEN HE ATTEMPTED TO NEGOTIATE A 
SECRET DEAL WITH THE GOZ ON THE LAND ISSUE (REF A). 
 
SIPDIS 
HASLUCK REVEALED THAT SWANEPOEL HAD BEEN AUTHORIZED TO 
NEGOTIATE ON BEHALF OF THE CFU IN TRYING TO GAIN GOZ 
SUPPORT FOR THE PRIVATE SECTOR INITIATIVE ON LAND REFORM 
(REF B), BUT NOT TO CUT ANY OTHER SECRET DEALS.  THE 
TEMPORARY DISUNITY IN THE CFU WAS CAUSE WHEN SWANEPOEL 
REVEALED TO THE CFU COUNCIL THAT HE HAD PROPOSED A 
SECRET DEAL TO THE GOZ THAT INVOLVED, AMONG OTHER 
 
SIPDIS 
POINTS, REPLACING THE CURRENT CFU EXECUTIVE LEADERSHIP, 
AND REPLACING DIRECTOR HASLUCK WITH A BLACK ZIMBABWEAN. 
AFTER DEBATING WHAT SWANEPOEL PROPOSED, THE CFU COUNCIL 
VOTED UNANIMOUSLY TO REJECT THIS DEAL AND TO FULLY 
SUPPORT THE CURRENT CFU LEADERSHIP.  HASLUCK REVEALED 
THAT HE EXPECTED THE UPCOMING SPECIAL CONGRESS TO DEBATE 
AND THEN ISSUE A COMPREHENSIVE LIST OF PRINCIPLES 
REGARDING THE CFU POSITION ON COMMERCIAL FARMING, LAND 
REFORM AND RESETTLEMENT. 
 
---------------- 
ENGAGING THE GOZ 
---------------- 
 
¶6. (C) HASLUCK STATED EMPHATICALLY TO PDAS BELLAMY THAT 
THE CFU HAS CONSISTENTLY TRIED TO ENGAGE THE GOZ ON THE 
ISSUE OF LAND REFORM AND RESETTLEMENT SINCE THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00970  02 OF 03  110550Z 
BEGINNING OF THE FARM INVASIONS IN FEBRUARY 2000.  THE 
PROBLEM THAT THE CFU HAS RUN INTO IN THIS EFFORT IS THAT 
THEY HAVE FOUND NO ONE THAT CAN TALK AUTHORITATIVELY FOR 
THE GOZ ON THIS ISSUE OR CUT A DEAL WITH THE CFU THAT 
WILL LATER BE HONORED BY THE GOZ.  HASLUCK SAID THAT 
FINANCE MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI, INDUSTRY AND 
INTERNATIONAL TRADE MINISTER NKOSANA MOYO AND MINISTER 
OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT IGNATIUS CHOMBO WERE ALL GOZ 
OFFICIALS THAT THE CFU BELIEVE THEY COULD WORK WITH, BUT 
NONE OF THEM CAN BE CONSIDERED TO AUTHORITATIVELY SPEAK 
FOR MUGABE OR THE GOZ.  HASLUCK ADDED THAT ONE POINT THE 
CFU HAS RAISED WITH THESE OFFICIALS, AND HAS RESONATED, 
IS THAT IN THE CURRENT ECONOMIC CRISIS THAT GRIPS 
ZIMBABWE, COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE IS THE ONE SECTOR OF 
THE ECONOMY THAT THE GOZ CAN COUNT ON TO PERFORM 
STRONGLY AND BRING IN THE HARD CURRENCY THAT THE GOZ 
DESPERATELY NEEDS.  HOWEVER, THIS IS ONLY TRUE IF THE 
GOZ LETS FARMERS FARM. 
 
--------------- 
NO TO SANCTIONS 
--------------- 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTO5659 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00970  03 OF 03  110550Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  USNW-00 
      DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    FAAE-00  FBIE-00 
      VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   VCE-00   NSAE-00  SS-00    USIE-00 
      BBG-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /002W 
                  ------------------D02125  110550Z /38 
R 110547Z MAR 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8391 
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 000970 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, 
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR - VDICKSON-HORTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/11 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM EAGR EAID PINR ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S CFU DIRECTOR RECOMMENDS PERSONAL 
SANCTIONS AND REGIONAL DIPLOMACY TO GET MUGABE TO CHANGE 
COURSE 
 
¶7. (C) WHEN PDAS BELLAMY TOLD HASLUCK THAT THE BUSH 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00970  03 OF 03  110550Z 
ADMINISTRATION WAS EVALUATING US POLICY TOWARDS ZIMBABWE 
IN LIGHT OF INCREASING GOZ REPRESSION AND HUMAN RIGHTS 
ABUSES (AMONG THESE THE BOMBING OF "THE DAILY NEWS" 
PRINTING PRESS, THE FORCED RESIGNATION OF SUPREME COURT 
JUSTICE GUBBAY, THE EXPULSION OF TWO FOREIGN 
JOURNALISTS), HASLUCK STATED CLEARLY THAT HE OPPOSED 
SANCTIONS BEING PLACED ON ZIMBABWE TO FORCE THE GOZ TO 
CHANGE ITS BEHAVIOR.  HE SAID THAT SANCTIONS WOULD 
DESTROY THE ZIMBABWE ECONOMY, WHICH IS JUST LIMPING 
ALONG AS IS, AND THAT THE ZIMBABWE PEOPLE WOULD BEAR THE 
BRUNT OF SANCTIONS.  RATHER THAN SANCTIONS, HASLUCK 
RECOMMENDED TWO SEPARATE COURSES OF ACTION.  ONE COURSE 
OF ACTION WOULD BE TO ISOLATE PRESIDENT MUGABE AND TOP 
OFFICIALS OF THE GOZ BY REVOKING THEIR VISAS TO TRAVEL 
TO THE US, COUPLED WITH FREEZING PERSONAL ASSETS HELD 
OVERSEAS.  THESE ACTIONS WOULD DIRECTLY INDICATE TO 
MUGABE AND THE GOZ LEADERSHIP THAT THE ACTIONS THEY WERE 
TAKING IN ZIMBABWE WERE MAKING THEM INTERNATIONAL 
PARIAHS.  THE SECOND COURSE WOULD BE FOR THE USG AND 
EUROPEAN NATIONS TO USE THEIR LEVERAGE WITH THE 
GOVERNMENTS OF NIGERIA, SOUTH AFRICA AND THE OTHER SADC 
COUNTRIES, TO INCREASE THEIR "QUIET" DIPLOMACY AND 
PRESSURE ON MUGABE TO GET HIM TO CHANGE COURSE.  HASLUCK 
EMPHASIZED THAT IT WAS IMPORTANT THAT SUCH DIPLOMACY AND 
PRESSURE BE CONDUCTED DISCRETELY, SINCE MUGABE REACTS 
VERY DEFENSIVELY TO PUBLIC PRESSURE. 
 
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COMMENT 
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                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00970  03 OF 03  110550Z 
¶8. (C) HASLUCK PUT A BRAVE FACE ON THE COMMERCIAL 
FARMERS' PLIGHT DURING HIS MEETING WITH PDAS BELLAMY. 
HIS ASSERTION THAT MOST FARMERS ARE BEING ABLE TO FARM 
THIS SEASON, THAT THEY SHOULD HAVE GOOD HARVESTS OF 
CROPS SUCH AS TOBACCO, SOYBEANS AND COTTON, AND THAT 
MOST FARMERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CARRY THEIR FARM WORKERS, 
WAS POSITIVE NEWS IN A SITUATION THAT HAS HAD MOSTLY BAD 
NEWS SINCE THE FARM INVASIONS BEGAN IN FEBRUARY 2000. 
HOWEVER, OTHER MEMBER OF THE CFU EXECUTIVE, AND HASLUCK 
HIMSELF, HAVE SAID ON A NUMBER OF OCCASIONS THAT THE 
VAST MAJORITY OF COMMERCIAL FARMERS DO NOT HAVE THE 
RESOURCES OR THE PSYCHOLOGICAL STAMINA TO CONTINUE 
FARMING UNDER THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS.  THE PRESSURE 
WILL BE ON THE GOZ SOON TO OFFER GUARANTEES TO THESE 
FARMERS THAT THEY WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLANT AND HARVEST 
WINTER CROPS.  WE BELIEVE THAT THE GOZ WILL OFFER SUCH 
GUARANTEES, AND HONOR THEM.  WE ALSO BELIEVE THAT 
HASLUCK'S SUGGESTIONS FOR SPECIFIC SANCTIONS DIRECTED 
AGAINST MUGABE AND OTHER HIGH-LEVEL GOZ OFFICIALS, 
COMBINED WITH MORE VIGOROUS QUIET DIPLOMACY AND PRESSURE 
FROM ZIMBABWE'S AFRICAN NEIGHBORS, ARE WORTHY OF 
CONSIDERATION.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶9. (U) PDAS BELLAMY APPROVED TRANSMISSION OF THIS 
MESSAGE. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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